Bursting Your Bubble: the 2020-21 NBA Gambling Thread

CSteinhardt

"Steiny"
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 18, 2003
3,048
Cambridge
I tend not to be able to stay up and watch these games since I'm in Europe, so I'm going with the simpler approach of:

TOR@MIL O235.5 2u
MIA@SAC O226.5 1u
 

Joe Sixpack

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Sep 9, 2002
5,121
Canton, MA
Now I have to ask, what's wrong with the NBA teasers?
They aren't profitable bets.

4.5 points doesn't change the outcome to a large enough extent given you'd need to pick ~75% of games correctly to win money long term. It's much different than NFL where there is value in crossing key numbers like 3 and 7 on the spread.
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
38,327
They aren't profitable bets.

4.5 points doesn't change the outcome to a large enough extent given you'd need to pick ~75% of games correctly to win money long term. It's much different than NFL where there is value in crossing key numbers like 3 and 7 on the spread.
I've had some modest short-term success doing 7 point 3 team NBA super teasers and teasing overs down. Not huge returns (something like +140 to +170) but can be decent if you pick your spots.
 

Mloaf71

lurker
Jul 13, 2005
297
Granted i'm a newbie but that's been my strategy, move overs down or unders up for wiggle room.

Just because I've been doing it doesn't mean it makes mathematical sense! haha
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
20,092
Raptors up 17 at the half against Milwaukee...
Milwaukee has lost its way. I get down the stretch of games you want the ball in Giannis’ hands to create but the Bucks spent the entire 1Q stagnant as Giannis put his head down barreling into the lane. Nobody on the Bucks ever had a chance to get into any rhythm or flow. I remember thinking Middleton hadn’t touched the ball in 10 possessions up the floor and wondering what would happen once he did.......he didn’t catch a pass cleanly then dribbled it out of bounds.
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
38,327
Milwaukee has lost its way. I get down the stretch of games you want the ball in Giannis’ hands to create but the Bucks spent the entire 1Q stagnant as Giannis put his head down barreling into the lane. Nobody on the Bucks ever had a chance to get into any rhythm or flow. I remember thinking Middleton hadn’t touched the ball in 10 possessions up the floor and wondering what would happen once he did.......he didn’t catch a pass cleanly then dribbled it out of bounds.
Yup. I tried my teasing the overs down strategy tonight and it, of course, did not work after I touted it. Didn't feel great about this one so should have listened to my gut. Milwaukee just seems like they can't ever figure it out. Giannis is a great talent but his lack of shooting and ball dominant ways just make it tough for everyone else to get in a rhythm.
 

CSteinhardt

"Steiny"
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 18, 2003
3,048
Cambridge
Current thoughts on tonight:

DEN@CLE O225 1u
GS@ORL O224 1u
DET@MEM O219.5 2u (I was going to take O223 this morning, so...)
TOR@MIN U225 1u

Also considering OKC@MIL O231.5, but really unsure what to make of MIL right now. Probably skipping this one.
 

riboflav

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 20, 2006
8,143
NOVA
Current thoughts on tonight:

DEN@CLE O225 1u
GS@ORL O224 1u
DET@MEM O219.5 2u (I was going to take O223 this morning, so...)
TOR@MIN U225 1u

Also considering OKC@MIL O231.5, but really unsure what to make of MIL right now. Probably skipping this one.
Yeah, Mil stinks.

Tor/Min was 231.5 overnight and got pounded down so I'm staying away from that one. YMMV.
 

CSteinhardt

"Steiny"
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 18, 2003
3,048
Cambridge
Yeah, Mil stinks.

Tor/Min was 231.5 overnight and got pounded down so I'm staying away from that one. YMMV.
Yeah, glad I ended up staying away as well.

Not seeing too much that's excellent for tonight. Probably going something like:

PHO@MEM O223 1u

Maybe could be talked into MIA@LAL O208 or WAS@POR O242
 

riboflav

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 20, 2006
8,143
NOVA
Yeah, glad I ended up staying away as well.

Not seeing too much that's excellent for tonight. Probably going something like:

PHO@MEM O223 1u

Maybe could be talked into MIA@LAL O208 or WAS@POR O242
I went over MI/LA but not greatly confident in it.

Was surprised how low Pho/Mem went but assuming b2b night and all for both teams
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
20,092
RIP Celtics/Pels Full Game Under.

RIP Celtics/Pels 2H Under (at a laughable 117).

RIP Celtics/Pels early 4Q in-game Under.

And let’s not forget.......RIP Celtics/Pels mid-4Q in-game Under.

I’m getting my fair share of OT Under losses this month. 4th one. NBA overtime’s run roughly 6%......my in-game Unders are at 30% this month. Brutal.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
20,092
If that wasn’t bad enough they put me in GREAT position in OT......until Ingram hits a 3 then fouls Jaylen on a 3. Wow at a loss!
 

Jed Zeppelin

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 23, 2008
40,659
Wizards are a real anything goes team. Had a free DK bet to use and went for an in-game U233.5 which felt astronomical for LA. LeBron chokes at the line late in the 4th to keep it a tie and sure enough they blow past the total in OT.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
20,092
Anyone else have Under 221 or 220.5 in Sixers/Cavs?

92-92 at end of regulation and only 14 points scored in the first 4:17 of OT. Then the take fouling and 3’s began resulting in 23 points over the final 43 seconds......23 points....In...Forty...Three....Seconds!

It was only 20 points until Ben Simmons drained a 28-footer at the buzzer looking like a southpaw Steph Curry in the process. Sports betting is fun they said.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
20,092
* Celtics -5.5

Wizards 6th game in 9 days in 6 different cities including west coast and altitude. Also coming off a win last night. Jaylen being out only provides more letdown opportunity and I think the Celtics win in a rout tonight. Look at the Margin of Victory Prop too.....this has 22+ written all over it.

(Hope people are following the Sunday afternoon Under plays.)

Edit: Number went down to 5.5 on the Jaylen news then quickly bet back up to 6.5 and 7 some places.
 
Last edited:

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
20,092
Tuesday Slate:

Grizz-Wiz: The Wiz tried real hard to get blown out in 2Q and early 3Q but Celtics were just as lethargic. At some point the Wiz schedule is going to bite them. Lean Griz here. Lean Under.

Hawks-Heat: Good one here. Coaching change is often a wake up call and I like this scheduling spot too.I played Atlanta ML -+115 and a small correlated parlay with Over 222.5 as I expect the Hawks offense to perk up tonight which Miami should match especially without Butler to slow them down.

* Note: Watch the Hawks pace in this game. McMillan’s teams have always played to snails pace in Portland and Indiana. Obv much different personnel here but something to watch moving forward with this team.

Clips-Celts: Middle of EC swing for Clips with loss that they gave away to Celts fresh on their minds. Lean Clips.

Nuggets-Bucks: Bucks went through their 5-6 game lull and now appear back on track. Nuggets on B2B and their lack of defensive stoppers should hurt here. Played Bucks -7 (it’s up to 8 now)

Knicks-Spurs: Both teams short handed tonight. 1Q pace could give clue on an in-game total so I’ll watch this. Otherwise hard pass.

Suns-Lakers: Lakers showed in Schroeder first game what I’ve been saying all along that they didn’t miss Davis.....they missed Davis AND Schroeder. Having said that it’s often the second game back that is flat. I played Suns 1H +.5 (most are Pk I found one with the half pt). I played some small Under 23.5 Pts/Reb/Ast prop on Schroeder. Lean Phoenix game.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
20,092
Tuesday Slate:

Grizz-Wiz: The Wiz tried real hard to get blown out in 2Q and early 3Q but Celtics were just as lethargic. At some point the Wiz schedule is going to bite them. Lean Griz here. Lean Under.

Hawks-Heat: Good one here. Coaching change is often a wake up call and I like this scheduling spot too.I played Atlanta ML -+115 and a small correlated parlay with Over 222.5 as I expect the Hawks offense to perk in diest

* Note: Watch the Hawks pace in this game. McMillan’s teams have always played to snails pace in Portland and Indiana. Obv much different personnel here but something to watch moving forward with this team.

Clips-Celts: Middle of EC swing for Clips with loss that they gave away to Celts fresh on their minds. Lean Clips.

Nuggets-Bucks: Bucks went through their 5-6 game lull and now appear back on track. Nuggets on B2B and their lack of defensive stoppers should hurt here. Played Bucks -7 (it’s up to 8 now)

Knicks-Spurs: Both teams short handed tonight. 1Q pace could give clue on an in-game total so I’ll watch this. Otherwise hard pass.

Suns-Lakers: Lakers showed in Schroeder first game what I’ve been saying all along that they didn’t miss Davis.....they missed Davis AND Schroeder. Having said that it’s often the second game back that is flat. I played Suns 1H played some Under 23.5 Pts/Reb/Ast prop on Schroeder. Lean Phoenix game.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
20,092
I’ll add on that Atlanta play that what I love about the scheduling is that it’s the first of a 1-game Florida trip. Good “business trip” set up under the new/interim coach.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
20,092
* Under 109.5 2H Celtics/Clippers

Pace will slow and defense will tighten up. 53% 3pt shooting isn’t sustainable. I don’t expect the Clippers to remain in their silly zone. I think this was a plan to save legs in the 1H of their 4th game of road trip.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
20,092
* Under 224.5 Lakers/Suns in-game.

Booker got hit with two T’s and ejected. Algorithm didn’t account for this so take this advantage if you can quick.
 

Jed Zeppelin

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 23, 2008
40,659
* Under 224.5 Lakers/Suns in-game.

Booker got hit with two T’s and ejected. Algorithm didn’t account for this so take this advantage if you can quick.
Celtics great Abdel Nader singlehandedly trying to bust this while the Lakers grind 23.5 seconds off the clock on the other end every time down the floor.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
20,092
Celtics great Abdel Nader singlehandedly trying to bust this while the Lakers grind 23.5 seconds off the clock on the other end every time down the floor.
Yup. Lakers are doing their part in the 4Q here per usual. Despite Nader we are still right on the number.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
20,092
Another contested jumper for the Lakers as shot clock buzzer goes off. They are play as if they are up 11 and not down 11. Bizarre.

Keeping this near 10 is crucial here as the final 30 seconds are typically dribbled out.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
20,092
Celtics great Abdel Nader singlehandedly trying to bust this while the Lakers grind 23.5 seconds off the clock on the other end every time down the floor.
Have I ever told you how much I love Laker 4Q Unders? Their last two the number went back to 55.5 after 3. Continues to make no sense but who am I to complain.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
20,092
Early morning before the number gets eaten up.

* Under 225.5 Hawks/Magic (Bovada)

It seems clear that Nate McMillan is going to have an impact into how the Hawks play. During his 4 full seasons in Seattle his teams ranked 24th or lower in Pace 3 out of 4 years, in his six years in Portland his teams were 28th once, 29th twice and dead last in his final three years. In Indy, they were 18, 23, 24 and 21.

I’m blacked out of nearly all Heat games being in FL so only going by box score but a 94-70 final on only 71 FGA indicates what I suspected may occur. None of my outs have a total posted yet but Bovada is hanging 225.5 for now. I expect this to get pounded down possibly below 220 so get it early.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
20,092
Game got immediately hammered down to 221 by 10am. I was able to get 224.5 at 6am at one of my outs by setting my alarm every two hours to refresh. Sports betting is good for your health they said.
 

bellowthecat

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2010
369
Milton, MA
When I heard the Hawks had fired their coach I immediately saw HRB in my head posting about what a good spot a galvanized Hawks team would provide. Also nabbed the Suns 1H +1 and the in game under late at 229.5.

Following your lead and took the Hawks Magic under 224.5 this morning too.

No Lebron tonight in Sacramento, but it's still Sacramento. Am I crazy for being tempted to take the Lakers +4?
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
20,092
When I heard the Hawks had fired their coach I immediately saw HRB in my head posting about what a good spot a galvanized Hawks team would provide. Also nabbed the Suns 1H +1 and the in game under late at 229.5.

Following your lead and took the Hawks Magic under 224.5 this morning too.

No Lebron tonight in Sacramento, but it's still Sacramento. Am I crazy for being tempted to take the Lakers +4?
Very nice! I missed the 229.5 trying to adhere to my rule of not playing for regression until run is over but added a little more at 227.5. That covered my Schroeder prop while steering me away from that dark dark place of Player Props lol.

Too many conflicts on both sides of that Laker/Kings play for me. I could make a case for playing either side as well as one for fading either side. Better stuff out there.
 

Jed Zeppelin

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 23, 2008
40,659
Game got immediately hammered down to 221 by 10am. I was able to get 224.5 at 6am at one of my outs by setting my alarm every two hours to refresh. Sports betting is good for your health they said.
DK offering the rare pre-game cash-out for a profit after I locked in this bet at 7:30 this morning, lol.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
20,092
DK offering the rare pre-game cash-out for a profit after I locked in this bet at 7:30 this morning, lol.
I’m not in a state that has legal betting......is this normal? It got steamed down to 218 before settling back to 219/219.5. Let’s see what happens.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
20,092
On pace for 264 after one.

And on pace for 210 after two.

NBA is crazy.
25 points in that one 3-minute stretch with 5 three’s will so that lol. Hopefully that’s the only stretch like this tonight. Need the Hawks offense to continue the second game blues.
 

Jed Zeppelin

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 23, 2008
40,659
Threw a bet on a boosted odds Harden revenge game triple double. Sitting a rebound shy, would be a heartbreaker to lose this one.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
20,092
Threw a bet on a boosted odds Harden revenge game triple double. Sitting a rebound shy, would be a heartbreaker to lose this one.
Nice hit. He pretty much molested Kyrie to make sure he got that 10th board lol. The players know.
 

Jed Zeppelin

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 23, 2008
40,659
Hawks’ last 7 FGs of this game will be threes. Rough loss.

Edit: Would have had a push at 225 but for a pointless foul with no time on the clock. Oh well, got the triple double at least.