Bursting Your Bubble: the 2020-21 NBA Gambling Thread

CSteinhardt

"Steiny"
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I tend not to be able to stay up and watch these games since I'm in Europe, so I'm going with the simpler approach of:

TOR@MIL O235.5 2u
MIA@SAC O226.5 1u
 

Joe Sixpack

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Now I have to ask, what's wrong with the NBA teasers?
They aren't profitable bets.

4.5 points doesn't change the outcome to a large enough extent given you'd need to pick ~75% of games correctly to win money long term. It's much different than NFL where there is value in crossing key numbers like 3 and 7 on the spread.
 

BigSoxFan

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May 31, 2007
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They aren't profitable bets.

4.5 points doesn't change the outcome to a large enough extent given you'd need to pick ~75% of games correctly to win money long term. It's much different than NFL where there is value in crossing key numbers like 3 and 7 on the spread.
I've had some modest short-term success doing 7 point 3 team NBA super teasers and teasing overs down. Not huge returns (something like +140 to +170) but can be decent if you pick your spots.
 

Mloaf71

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Jul 13, 2005
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Granted i'm a newbie but that's been my strategy, move overs down or unders up for wiggle room.

Just because I've been doing it doesn't mean it makes mathematical sense! haha
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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Raptors up 17 at the half against Milwaukee...
Milwaukee has lost its way. I get down the stretch of games you want the ball in Giannis’ hands to create but the Bucks spent the entire 1Q stagnant as Giannis put his head down barreling into the lane. Nobody on the Bucks ever had a chance to get into any rhythm or flow. I remember thinking Middleton hadn’t touched the ball in 10 possessions up the floor and wondering what would happen once he did.......he didn’t catch a pass cleanly then dribbled it out of bounds.
 

BigSoxFan

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Milwaukee has lost its way. I get down the stretch of games you want the ball in Giannis’ hands to create but the Bucks spent the entire 1Q stagnant as Giannis put his head down barreling into the lane. Nobody on the Bucks ever had a chance to get into any rhythm or flow. I remember thinking Middleton hadn’t touched the ball in 10 possessions up the floor and wondering what would happen once he did.......he didn’t catch a pass cleanly then dribbled it out of bounds.
Yup. I tried my teasing the overs down strategy tonight and it, of course, did not work after I touted it. Didn't feel great about this one so should have listened to my gut. Milwaukee just seems like they can't ever figure it out. Giannis is a great talent but his lack of shooting and ball dominant ways just make it tough for everyone else to get in a rhythm.
 

CSteinhardt

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Current thoughts on tonight:

DEN@CLE O225 1u
GS@ORL O224 1u
DET@MEM O219.5 2u (I was going to take O223 this morning, so...)
TOR@MIN U225 1u

Also considering OKC@MIL O231.5, but really unsure what to make of MIL right now. Probably skipping this one.
 

riboflav

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Jan 20, 2006
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Current thoughts on tonight:

DEN@CLE O225 1u
GS@ORL O224 1u
DET@MEM O219.5 2u (I was going to take O223 this morning, so...)
TOR@MIN U225 1u

Also considering OKC@MIL O231.5, but really unsure what to make of MIL right now. Probably skipping this one.
Yeah, Mil stinks.

Tor/Min was 231.5 overnight and got pounded down so I'm staying away from that one. YMMV.
 

CSteinhardt

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Yeah, Mil stinks.

Tor/Min was 231.5 overnight and got pounded down so I'm staying away from that one. YMMV.
Yeah, glad I ended up staying away as well.

Not seeing too much that's excellent for tonight. Probably going something like:

PHO@MEM O223 1u

Maybe could be talked into MIA@LAL O208 or WAS@POR O242
 

riboflav

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Yeah, glad I ended up staying away as well.

Not seeing too much that's excellent for tonight. Probably going something like:

PHO@MEM O223 1u

Maybe could be talked into MIA@LAL O208 or WAS@POR O242
I went over MI/LA but not greatly confident in it.

Was surprised how low Pho/Mem went but assuming b2b night and all for both teams
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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RIP Celtics/Pels Full Game Under.

RIP Celtics/Pels 2H Under (at a laughable 117).

RIP Celtics/Pels early 4Q in-game Under.

And let’s not forget.......RIP Celtics/Pels mid-4Q in-game Under.

I’m getting my fair share of OT Under losses this month. 4th one. NBA overtime’s run roughly 6%......my in-game Unders are at 30% this month. Brutal.
 

HomeRunBaker

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If that wasn’t bad enough they put me in GREAT position in OT......until Ingram hits a 3 then fouls Jaylen on a 3. Wow at a loss!
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Aug 23, 2008
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Wizards are a real anything goes team. Had a free DK bet to use and went for an in-game U233.5 which felt astronomical for LA. LeBron chokes at the line late in the 4th to keep it a tie and sure enough they blow past the total in OT.