Bursting Your Bubble: the 2020-21 NBA Gambling Thread

Oil Can Dan

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I’d take that price over mine. My sites suck for Props. Let’s go we got this!!
I'm ridin with you boys on Mitchell at over 6 @-114.

I also put some cash on the Lakers under. I've been locking in the under early and then in the 4Q when the pace drops I look to in-game bet the over and try to hit both. Usually end up risking $20 to potentially win $190, and it usually doesn't happen (especially with all the OTs!). But it's fun.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Began a little Lakers Under expecting their defense to lock down the Grizz in the 4Q. Bought 25% of ply at 220.5. Let’s see if we can get another OT tonight.

Edit: Upon clicking we get 9 points in final :32 of 3Q. Fun! Bought another 25% at 223.5.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Hope some jumped on that Lakers 4Q last night and yay, we avoided OT!!

I’m sorry I wasn’t able to post this until just now as it’s been a hectic morning with about 30 B2B college games on top of the other 90 or so, injuries, covid’s, etc etc.

I was able to get this Sixers/Suns at Under 224.5 around 9am but people are finally waking up to these early NBA start time Totals. It’s down to 222 now but still great value imo. 1H is 113 and 1Q 57.....not opposed to either of them either with the expected slower pace and sluggishness an early start time generally provides.
 

Light-Tower-Power

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Hope some jumped on that Lakers 4Q last night and yay, we avoided OT!!

I’m sorry I wasn’t able to post this until just now as it’s been a hectic morning with about 30 B2B college games on top of the other 90 or so, injuries, covid’s, etc etc.

I was able to get this Sixers/Suns at Under 224.5 around 9am but people are finally waking up to these early NBA start time Totals. It’s down to 222 now but still great value imo. 1H is 113 and 1Q 57.....not opposed to either of them either with the expected slower pace and sluggishness an early start time generally provides.
Got U223 on DK. Let's keep it going.
 

MJM2344

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Hope some jumped on that Lakers 4Q last night and yay, we avoided OT!!

I’m sorry I wasn’t able to post this until just now as it’s been a hectic morning with about 30 B2B college games on top of the other 90 or so, injuries, covid’s, etc etc.

I was able to get this Sixers/Suns at Under 224.5 around 9am but people are finally waking up to these early NBA start time Totals. It’s down to 222 now but still great value imo. 1H is 113 and 1Q 57.....not opposed to either of them either with the expected slower pace and sluggishness an early start time generally provides.
Celtics/Wizards at 1 tomorrow. Quoting this as a reminder to look at the under in the morning.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Celtics/Wizards at 1 tomorrow. Quoting this as a reminder to look at the under in the morning.
I see 231.5 right now but I’m not in favor of blindly playing every one (although maybe I should be). Have to be careful with a team like the Wizards as they are fully capable of giving up 140 if they lower their defensive intensity any more than they do currently.
 

HomeRunBaker

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It was 220 at my book, but they still had the 1Q at 57 so I jumped on that one.
Good!! I had a little 1H but majority full game. Tough to overcome a 125-pt 2H and when Embiid is knocking down those step back fall away 3’s you know you are doomed. We’re on to Cincinnati.
 

CSteinhardt

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Realized I might as well put my action in this thread. I'm getting slightly different numbers, being based in Europe, and mostly focusing on totals. A bunch of them look too low today:

WAS@BOS U231.5 1u
NO@DET O219.5 2u
POR@DAL O235.5 2u
MIL@OKC O228 1u
MEM@SAC O230 1u
CLE@LAC O220.5 2u
 

HomeRunBaker

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Realized I might as well put my action in this thread. I'm getting slightly different numbers, being based in Europe, and mostly focusing on totals. A bunch of them look too low today:

WAS@BOS U231.5 1u
NO@DET O219.5 2u
POR@DAL O235.5 2u
MIL@OKC O228 1u
MEM@SAC O230 1u
CLE@LAC O220.5 2u
Good stuff!

My top play today is also in there.....

* Over 227.5 Bucks/Thunder. I see 228.5 now.
 

HomeRunBaker

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In addition to the Bucks Over my other good one is:

* Memphis -1 (@Sacramento)

Grizz on back end of an unusual 2-game West Coast trip so they should be focused coming off Laker loss......but this is primarily a fade on the Kings who I’m looking at for some regression following a huge two-week run for them. They’ve lost 2 straight now and I expect the slope to continue downward before it turns back up.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Good stuff!

My top play today is also in there.....

* Over 227.5 Bucks/Thunder. I see 228.5 now.
You may not see a worse offensive performance than what these two are displaying tonight. 28-26 with 7 to go......in the 2Q! Played some small progression here Over 204.5, nearly half of my original play.

Edit: Pace is fine and I expect Bucks to push tempo even more down 9 at the half so added more Over 209 here as well as Bucks -1 as they still should win this game with a couple adjustments and their 1H shooting being an abberation.

Note: In-game number was as low as 198.5 before teams began hitting some 3’s.
 
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HomeRunBaker

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This is a fascinating game. Teams come out to drop 27 in the first 3:15 of the 2H. Full game Over not dead yet!!
 

Jed Zeppelin

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You may not see a worse offensive performance than what these two are displaying tonight. 28-26 with 7 to go......in the 2Q! Played some small progression here Over 204.5, nearly half of my original play.

Edit: Pace is fine and I expect Bucks to push tempo even more down 9 at the half so added more Over 209 here as well as Bucks -1 as they still should win this game with a couple adjustments and their 1H shooting being an abberation.

Note: In-game number was as low as 198.5 before teams began hitting some 3’s.
Couldn’t have jumped on O203.5 during Q2 any faster than I did.
 

shawnrbu

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Realized I might as well put my action in this thread. I'm getting slightly different numbers, being based in Europe, and mostly focusing on totals. A bunch of them look too low today:

WAS@BOS U231.5 1u
NO@DET O219.5 2u
POR@DAL O235.5 2u
MIL@OKC O228 1u
MEM@SAC O230 1u
CLE@LAC O220.5 2u
Very nicely done. You almost swept the day.
 

Mloaf71

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Jul 13, 2005
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Got a few O/Us and Player Props going today:

Three Team Teaser:
Hou@WAS O225.5
PHIL@UTA U231
MIA@LAC U221.5

2x6 Round Robin:
Sabonis O5.5A
Joe Harris O2.5 threes
Randle O22.5P
Wall O25.5P

4 Team Parlay:
Sabonis O5.5A
Joe Harris O2.5 threes
Randle O22.5P
Curry U42.5PRA

Feel good about the Teaser, Sabonis, and Harris. See How Randle, Curry, and Wall treat me tonight.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Realized I might as well put my action in this thread. I'm getting slightly different numbers, being based in Europe, and mostly focusing on totals. A bunch of them look too low today:

WAS@BOS U231.5 1u
NO@DET O219.5 2u
POR@DAL O235.5 2u
MIL@OKC O228 1u
MEM@SAC O230 1u
CLE@LAC O220.5 2u
Only loss was due to that bizarre 1H abberation in OKC. Very nicely done.
 

CSteinhardt

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* Heat +3.5
* Over 218.5 Knicks/Hawks
* Jazz -7
* Nets -4.5 (following the Kings fade)
I can get LAC +2 now, so great call jumping on MIA. If I play anything there at this point, I think it might be O214, assuming the Clippers defense suffers.

Others I'm looking at:
PHI@UTA U226 1u
CLE@GS O227.5 1u or 2u
and I think you talked me into ATL@NY O218.5 1u

Is O243 for BRK/SAC ridiculous? Before I saw the number, I told myself they couldn't really set a number where I wouldn't take the over, but 243 is higher than I thought they'd post.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I can get LAC +2 now, so great call jumping on MIA. If I play anything there at this point, I think it might be O214, assuming the Clippers defense suffers.

Others I'm looking at:
PHI@UTA U226 1u
CLE@GS O227.5 1u or 2u
and I think you talked me into ATL@NY O218.5 1u

Is O243 for BRK/SAC ridiculous? Before I saw the number, I told myself they couldn't really set a number where I wouldn't take the over, but 243 is higher than I thought they'd post.
I posted +3.5 here but actually got +4.5 at 9am and even the ML at +184 (I think). I don’t know why it was priced like this with George and Kawhi (and Bev) unlikely to play.

I don’t think the Nets total is ridiculous at all. They should score at will and I don’t expect them to dig in much in a game vs the Kings. This has potential to be a silly final, is 141-127 that much of a stretch?

You may convince me on some Warriors Over also. The Cavs should play much faster without Drummond and I was on the fence.
 

Mloaf71

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I didn’t take into account Simmons playing the 5 for the 76ers and the associated pace increase for both teams without Embiid. Failure on my part.

Apparently it won’t matter bc the Heat and Clippers are their wheaties too.

A few Joe Harris 3s and I break even tonight.
 

CSteinhardt

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The opening line on all the Overs today was 7 for 7 (Warriors/Cavs opened at 225).
Yeah, unfortunately I only got 227.5 for that, so I ended up 3-3 on the totals (3 of 5 wins, but I had 2 units on GS/CLE), but also took the Nets -4 and a live UTA -1.5 about 5 minutes into the game.

Early thoughts are that I like a bunch of the overs tonight as well, especially TOR@MIL and BRK@PHO. Only over I'm not considering at all right now is LAL@MIN.
 

bellowthecat

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Thanks for the Jazz and the Nets last night HRB. When the Sixers went were up 20-10 early after hitting every shot I jumped on the Jazz some more at -4.5 and then -3.5. Would have taken the others too, but those numbers were long gone by the time I looked.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Thanks for the Jazz and the Nets last night HRB. When the Sixers went were up 20-10 early after hitting every shot I jumped on the Jazz some more at -4.5 and then -3.5. Would have taken the others too, but those numbers were long gone by the time I looked.
I was home last night so active with the in-games. I had enough Jazz (got lucky w -5 1H) but got hurt with two Unders following big runs.....but the big runs kept coming lol. The Nets in-game Overs (1H & game) more than made up for it though. Very good night overall and luck never hurts as I somehow got to 227 in GSt for a push.
 

BigSoxFan

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My best win of the year:

$10 on Westbrook/Harden to both have triple double at close to +2000. Almost added Butler and he actually did it as well, which would have pushed things into 4 digits but I didn't want to get greedy. Now that Harden is the main distributor for Brooklyn, it basically comes down to rebounds for him. Odds were +500 so why not? Ditto for Westbrook. He has a pretty high floor with assists.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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My best win of the year:

$10 on Westbrook/Harden to both have triple double at close to +2000. Almost added Butler and he actually did it as well, which would have pushed things into 4 digits but I didn't want to get greedy. Now that Harden is the main distributor for Brooklyn, it basically comes down to rebounds for him. Odds were +500 so why not? Ditto for Westbrook. He has a pretty high floor with assists.
Was kicking myself this morning over missing Westbrook in a revenge game.
 

BigSoxFan

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Was kicking myself this morning over missing Westbrook in a revenge game.
Yeah, that's what got me interested. Then it was all about finding the 2nd dance partner, which ended up being Harden. He was 2 reb short of a TD on Friday so figured he was a good shot with KD out. These high scores are making triple doubles pretty obtainable for high usage guys. For instance, Jokic is +340 tonight. He's getting the points and rebounds so really just comes down to assists.
 

HomeRunBaker

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My best win of the year:

$10 on Westbrook/Harden to both have triple double at close to +2000. Almost added Butler and he actually did it as well, which would have pushed things into 4 digits but I didn't want to get greedy. Now that Harden is the main distributor for Brooklyn, it basically comes down to rebounds for him. Odds were +500 so why not? Ditto for Westbrook. He has a pretty high floor with assists.
Very nice!! Yeah if you can get to the Harden and Draymond assist totals before they adjust upward this is a good opportunity especially vs poor defensive teams.
 

BigSoxFan

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Is it allowed to ask which apps / websites people use to make their bets? I live in CT.
I'm in NJ and on Draft Kings. Don't believe it is currently legal in CT although that may be coming. Think Draft Kings is trying to partner with the local tribes who, as you know, pretty much control everything. Sounds like progress has been made and a deal is almost certainly likely at some point.
 

BigSoxFan

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Very nice!! Yeah if you can get to the Harden and Draymond assist totals before they adjust upward this is a good opportunity especially vs poor defensive teams.
Yeah, Draymond has been nuts with assists. His o/u is now like 10.5 or something, which seems crazy, but he's had several 15+ lately. I'll be keeping an eye on him. The tough part with him is points. It's why I get scared of the double-double bets with guys like Gobert.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Is it allowed to ask which apps / websites people use to make their bets? I live in CT.
I use a variety of locals (2 in FL and 3 up north) who use the PayPerHead sites. I also have a Bookmaker.eu account that is especially good for in-play action. I’ve got some CT connections but sharing that I’m sure isn’t allowed here so I won’t say that I have some CT connections that are very reliable in the CT area.
 

cardiacs

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I use a variety of locals (2 in FL and 3 up north) who use the PayPerHead sites. I also have a Bookmaker.eu account that is especially good for in-play action. I’ve got some CT connections but sharing that I’m sure isn’t allowed here so I won’t say that I have some CT connections that are very reliable in the CT area.
That's totally fair and thanks for the reply.
When I lived in DK you could make all sorts of live, in-game picks with a variety of apps (I think I used Unibet). I made a lot of $$$ anticipating when runs or cold streaks were about to happen in-game, all from an app on my phone. Good times :)
 

cardiacs

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I'm in NJ and on Draft Kings. Don't believe it is currently legal in CT although that may be coming. Think Draft Kings is trying to partner with the local tribes who, as you know, pretty much control everything. Sounds like progress has been made and a deal is almost certainly likely at some point.
Thanks for the reply. I will check around the tribal sites to see if they offer something.
 

HomeRunBaker

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That's totally fair and thanks for the reply.
When I lived in DK you could make all sorts of live, in-game picks with a variety of apps (I think I used Unibet). I made a lot of $$$ anticipating when runs or cold streaks were about to happen in-game, all from an app on my phone. Good times :)
The NBA is generally about the in-game runs (except in Utah-Philly total last night) and can sometimes carry over into a stretch of games when there are abberations such as Sacramento’s run up until last week. This is why we faded the Kings their last couple and will likely continue to do so as they hit the road in one more game for a long trip that has the potential to be ugly. Def something to monitor.
 

CSteinhardt

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I know that the books should be adjusting and we can't keep going 100% over every night, but I think I'm looking at 4 overs again tonight:

DEN@BOS O221 1u
TOR@MIL O235.5 2u
NO@MEM O231.5 1u
BRK@PHO O231.5 2u

Honestly, if I had to pick, I like the over in the other two games more than the under as well, just not enough to play it.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I know that the books should be adjusting and we can't keep going 100% over every night, but I think I'm looking at 4 overs again tonight:

DEN@BOS O221 1u
TOR@MIL O235.5 2u
NO@MEM O231.5 1u
BRK@PHO O231.5 2u

Honestly, if I had to pick, I like the over in the other two games more than the under as well, just not enough to play it.
I’m on the Bucks Over but opposite of the Under in Brooklyn, adjusted to 227 following injury news.

* Bucks -6 is my best play returning home following three straight losses. Good number due to decency bias too. Played a correlated parlay with the Over as well.
 

CSteinhardt

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I’m on the Bucks Over but opposite of the Under in Brooklyn, adjusted to 227 following injury news.

* Bucks -6 is my best play returning home following three straight losses. Good number due to decency bias too. Played a correlated parlay with the Over as well.
Yeah, I had locked in my over play before the number changed, or else I'd have avoided playing the game, but instead was lucky to get a win out of it, so 3-1 on the day (5-1 units).

I'm looking at the following today, but haven't locked it in yet:

ATL@BOS U222.5 1u or 0u
DEN@WAS O233.5 1u
OKC@MEM O226.5 1u
POR@NO O236 2u
UTA@LAC O228 1u or 2u
GS -1 1u or 0u
 

HomeRunBaker

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Yeah, I had locked in my over play before the number changed, or else I'd have avoided playing the game, but instead was lucky to get a win out of it, so 3-1 on the day (5-1 units).

I'm looking at the following today, but haven't locked it in yet:

ATL@BOS U222.5 1u or 0u
DEN@WAS O233.5 1u
OKC@MEM O226.5 1u
POR@NO O236 2u
UTA@LAC O228 1u or 2u
GS -1 1u or 0u
I was able to get out of the Nets under with an in-game Phoenix TT over when it was quickly apparent that their defense isn’t better without Kyrie. I think the only player who can even impact them at all on that end is Durant.

I will sign off on your Wash Over, Memphis Over and Portland Over. I lean against Warriors tonight. I’ll be alert with in-game action.
 

Mloaf71

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Jul 13, 2005
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After getting a little too aggressive spending part of my Super Bowl winnings, got back to a more conservative play last night and paid off.

Tailed you guys on a NBA teaser:
Den@Was O230
OKC@Mem O223
Por@NO O231.5

and a college teaser:
Neb@MD -5.5
ASU@USC -5
Drake +0.5 @ Northern Iowa
 

HomeRunBaker

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Staying with the not-so-fancy approach of these high totals going over and the low totals staying under. Scoring is going through a stretch of blowing up so I’ve been staying away from these low Unders to smash the low-hanging fruit.

I’ve been purposely blacklisting1Q totals during regular season to simplify my process/decision making, instead using primarily 1H and full time. My preference is 1H for Overs and FT for Unders in NBA (which is opposite from my NCAA approach but that’s for another time) if gun to head. The Bucks and Raptors have played twice this year posting 66 in both 1Q games with Pace. Ironically score was tied 33-33 both times.....fun with numbers. I expect continued pace and scoring in 1H tonight so bought.....

* Over 120.5 1H

Aside from primary play I also played a FT Over 236 with intention of identifying a regression spot (likely at halftime) to come back with some under hopefullly in the low-to-middle 240’s as the pace slows in 2H.

Edit: For the record, I do not endorse NBA teasers. ;)