Bursting Your Bubble: the 2020-21 NBA Gambling Thread

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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Clippers/Nets is 236.5 with a minute left in 1Q. Feels too high for an in play Over.

Edit: Got it at 230.5 with 7 minutes left in 2Q.
Very nicely done. I couldn’t get either Nets or Blazer game to where I wanted in the 1Q so let it go to focus on college. Found a good Over progession in Nevada/UNLV in 1H with Nevada shooting 0-11 threes to start game so it worked out.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Will we go down with the ship on the last two losing SoSH plays? I’ll take a split if one wins in a blowout which is very possible in these spots

* Knicks +2

Unique NBA B2B scheduling spot that has worked beautifully in the college game this year. As mentioned above the Knicks perform much better as large dogs however in this spot, as the better team (imo), I’d be surprised if they didn’t bounce back with a convincing win.

* Kings +1

Celtics got their win in G1 of this trip. B2B is a great time to exhale and doing so without Smart, Kemba and Pritchard could be fairly catastrophic.

* For these reasons I’m also looking at some “Margin of Victory” props in the case when the C’s or Bulls get down double digits and don’t have the horses, or desire coming off a win last night, to mount a comeback. I don’t see them posted at my books yet but Kings and Knicks by 22+ should be in the +1200/1300 range with a sprinkling on 19-21 at around +2100.


Edit: College bonus play. SMU 1H -2 :)
 
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HomeRunBaker

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Got Knicks by 21 or more at +2900 and Knicks by 17-20 at +2200.

Kings by 21 or more at +2800 and Kings by 17-20 at +2200.

Love the SMU 1H play.
Wow those are great prices for essenaillly pick em games. Where did you get those? The Pay Per Heads that I use suck for these and I always forget I have my Bookmaker account.

Lets
F*ckin’
Go!!!!!!
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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Got Knicks by 21 or more at +2900 and Knicks by 17-20 at +2200.

Kings by 21 or more at +2800 and Kings by 17-20 at +2200.

Love the SMU 1H play.
Wow those are great prices for essenaillly pick em games. Where did you get those? The Pay Per Heads that I use suck for these and I always forget I have my Bookmaker account.

Lets
F*ckin’
Go!!!!!!
 

HomeRunBaker

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Knicks in solid position for the game and props. Win or lose I’m loving the value in these things. I’m going to look to do more of these in the future.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Those are great lines.

Betonline has Kings 17-20 at +2000 and Kings 21+ at +1000.
Yes and that is more consistent with the market. The 21+ or 22+ should always be a significantly lower price than a smaller window of 3-4 points. Those are sick prices he got.
 

Joe Sixpack

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Yes and that is more consistent with the market. The 21+ or 22+ should always be a significantly lower price than a smaller window of 3-4 points. Those are sick prices he got.
Seriously. If those 21+ lines are regularly at those prices I'd give serious consideration to drive across the RI border to place some bets (I'm 25 miles or so away).
 

Mloaf71

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Jul 13, 2005
297
Great night last night HRB. 3-3. I parlayed the SMU 1H, Knicks +2 and Kings -1 for a big win. Teased the Knicks and Kings to be a little safer, and crushed the Providence Under.

Without looking at the numbers I feel like the last 2 seasons betting the under in PC games has been a pretty consistent winner.
 

Joe Sixpack

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Nice picks. I went with Knicks -1 and Kings -1 to get some (very slight) + odds on each. Always a good night when you go 2 for 2!
 

Oil Can Dan

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Do any of you bet hockey? Although I know less about hockey than football or basketball I seem to do better with hockey betting, which is weird.
 

HomeRunBaker

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After a 3-0 night here’s one for you daytime degens looking for some Ohio Valley action this afternoon. SIU-Edwardsville is playing their 5th game in 8 days in the middle of a 12 game in 22 day stretch. They lost to an E.Illinois team without 5 of their top 8 rotational guys on Tues. Can’t imagine things improving much in the middle of this outrageous scheduling. They host the 3-12 Tennessee State Skyhawks at 2pm EST who aren’t nearly as bad as their record suggests with 7 of those losses coming by 4 points or less including a 2-point loss to SIUE prior to their scheduling run. Great spot for the Skyhawks erratic offense to find themselves and bounce back in this pick em game.

* Tennessee State Pk.

Edit: This is the worst basketball I’ve ever watched. It’s like both teams are on their 8th game in 5 days lol.
 
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HomeRunBaker

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Coming in late here but played....

* Dallas -4.5 over the Warriors if you can still get in or in-game early.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Lakers and Pistons played last week. After scoring 114 in the 1H the two combined for 46 in the 3Q and 39 in the 4th with a snails pace. Tonight they scored 117 in a free flowing 1H and have 14 through first 5 min of the 3Q.

Trying to find some good live numbers here to the Under. Good matchup for it as the Pistons really struggle against Lakers defense in the halfcourt.

Edit: Took 33% of total play at 217.5 after Josh Jackson’s 3-point barrage.The degen in me wanted to ship the entire 100% plus tomorrow’s 100% lol.

Edit2: Took 67% at U223.5 won’t find a better number later on.
 
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HomeRunBaker

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Lakers D was so good in denying lockouts behind the arc that Josh Jackson was forced to break the unwritten regular season rule of going for the tie......and to OT we go as tonight’s Laker Unders burn up in flames. Such a shame.
 

Joe Sixpack

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Lakers D was so good in denying lockouts behind the arc that Josh Jackson was forced to break the unwritten regular season rule of going for the tie......and to OT we go as tonight’s Laker Unders burn up in flames. Such a shame.
I've never understood why they don't offer regulation time only bets for basketball as you can do with hockey or soccer.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I've never understood why they don't offer regulation time only bets for basketball as you can do with hockey or soccer.
Nearly 25% of hockey games go to OT so it can create a larger market while only 6% of NBA games go to OT.
 

shawnrbu

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Surprised to see Knicks/Heat at 119 total at the Half. Pregame total was 207. The live number at Halftime is 221.5, which doesn’t compute. Taking a stab at that going over.

I was tempted to go Under on Hornets/Wizards 238 on an early Sunday afternoon, but the Wizards’ pace + terrible defense scared me off. Did sprinkle some on Hornets to win by 13-16, 17-20 and + 21 since I guessed the Wizards are a decent candidate to be blown out on Super Bowl Sunday.

Edit: I got fooled. Knicks/Heat put up a 40 point 3rd Quarter. Looks like Under was the play everywhere this afternoon.
 
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HomeRunBaker

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Surprised to see Knicks/Heat at 119 total at the Half. Pregame total was 207. The live number at Halftime is 221.5, which doesn’t compute. Taking a stab at that going over.

I was tempted to go Under on Hornets/Wizards 238 on an early Sunday afternoon, but the Wizards’ pace + terrible defense scared me off. Did sprinkle some on Hornets to win by 13-16, 17-20 and + 21 since I guessed the Wizards are a decent candidate to be blown out on Super Bowl Sunday.

Edit: I got fooled. Knicks/Heat put up a 40 point 3rd Quarter. Looks like Under was the play everywhere this afternoon.
The day game odd start time Unders continue to be gold.
 

HomeRunBaker

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So who’s ready to hold their nose with me tonight? Looking at a pair of home dogs going up against teams that I don’t expect to be approaching the game with much urgency.

* Detroit +6.5

Pure fade on the overvalued Nets who are still in disarray especially on the road where they are 4-6 straight up. They have their bags packed to spend the night in their own beds with the Pacers at home tomorrow night. It’s ok to sprinkle a little on a correlated parlay with the Under here too (229.5). Maybe 90% of play on Pistons +5.5 and a 10% value sprinkle on Pistons ML and Under parlay at nearly 5-1.


* Sacramento +5

Kings have been a cover machine the last two weeks going 7-0. The Sixers are still vulnerable on the road, especially in this their west coast house of horrors, and have lost in their last 3 trips to this site with Embiid and Simmons.

Also, unsure if I’m playing the Jazz tonight but if you want to stay up to watch I’d be very careful on playing Boston here. It’s Utah or pass with gun to head.
 

Mloaf71

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Jul 13, 2005
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Great call on Detroit! A crazy 21 point swing at the end of the 4th from hitting the parlay.

Hopefully the Kings come alive in the 2nd quarter. I teased them with Detroit so have a little wiggle room.

Have the Celtics winning by 1 - 10 and Jazz winning by 1 - 10. Had Jazz only but C’s +300 was too good to pass up and allows me to bet both sides to hedge provided it’s not a blow out.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Crappy beat on the Total end of that parlay. It was looking real good there.....like golden good. Kings are in decent shape now.

Didn’t touch Celtics preflop but after Jaylens 3rd 3-pointer I jumped on the Celtics Team Total Under 111.5 (pre they were 108). Then hit it again Under 105.5 (I think).
 

Mloaf71

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Nice. I also stole money on Fan Duel with Celtics and Jazz combine for 2 threes in first 3 mins and the same bet for Rockets game.

Overall a good night.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Nice. I also stole money on Fan Duel with Celtics and Jazz combine for 2 threes in first 3 mins and the same bet for Rockets game.

Overall a good night.
Good to hear! Did very well in college but my NBA left me thinking I should have had a much better card. Went 1-1 on sides and the 3 leans I had but didn’t play won which is always frustrating .
 

HomeRunBaker

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Woke up from a dead sleep and bad bad nightmare. I was dreaming I lost a rock solid bet because Luke Walton AND De’Aaron Fox kept running ISO’s against Thybulle for the entire 4Q.
 

BigSoxFan

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Woke up from a dead sleep and bad bad nightmare. I was dreaming I lost a rock solid bet because Luke Walton AND De’Aaron Fox kept running ISO’s against Thybulle for the entire 4Q.
Yup. My Tatum/Mitchell to each score 25+ for +235 fell 2 Tatum points short (he had 23 with 5 mins to go). That one stung. I knew Mitchell would get his.
 

benhogan

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Yup. My Tatum/Mitchell to each score 25+ for +235 fell 2 Tatum points short (he had 23 with 5 mins to go). That one stung. I knew Mitchell would get his.
Just go long points on whoever Kemba guards (or trails).

Kemba floating into the lane, guarding no one, has become his favorite place to hang these days o_O
 

HomeRunBaker

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Woke up from a dead sleep and bad bad nightmare. I was dreaming I lost a rock solid bet because Luke Walton AND De’Aaron Fox kept running ISO’s against Thybulle for the entire 4Q.
Watched replay......wasn’t a dream. Walton may not be the guy everyone expected him to be.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Just go long points on whoever Kemba guards (or trails).

Kemba floating into the lane, guarding no one, has become his favorite place to hang these days o_O
The Mitchell side was going to be difficult to lose with Conley out to bump up his usage. Between Kemba on the floor and Pritchard being exposed by Clarkson we showed how badly Smart was missed in this one.
 

HomeRunBaker

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And just like that......

another easy Laker 4Q Under down the drain with OT. That’s 3 consecutive OT games for the Lakers. Shoot me now.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Anyone in a DraftKings-friendly state, they are running one of their semi-regular can't miss promos. For every 1000 bets on the promo, Lakers/Nuggets on Sunday in this case, they lowered the total by 1 point. Current total is...0 points at +100. Quick double up on max $25 bet.

Some others they've run included over 0.5 TDs in the Super Bowl and another playoff game. They'll do some with spreads as well where it ends up +40 at least.

Aside from tailing HRB, I'm not much of a sports bettor so these are some nice bonuses for occasional beer money, something like +$150 on these since September. Both DK and FD run these, typically every 2-3 months I would guess.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Prop players out there.......

I rarely play these as the best prices get swallowed up fast in this market but I follow Bet The Prop on Twitter as they sometimes have good ideas with their daily “free play” (which of course is designed to get you to subscribe monthly).

Today they have one that coincides with my idea the other day with Durant out watching the Pistons 1Q layup line against them.

* Sabonis Points Over 21.5

I only checked one of my outs and they only had his Pts/Reb/Ast at 38.5 which seems inflated (which is consistent with many sharp prop ideas) but figured I’d pass this one on for any prop players out there if you can find a decent number.
 

Light-Tower-Power

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If anyone wants some free betting money DK is doing one of their promo odds boosts. At least one point to be scored during the LAL/DEN game on 2/14.
 

BigSoxFan

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If anyone wants some free betting money DK is doing one of their promo odds boosts. At least one point to be scored during the LAL/DEN game on 2/14.
Ha, yup. I maxed that out as soon as I saw it. DK tends to get more aggressive with these things once football is over to maintain the traffic.
 

Mloaf71

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Jul 13, 2005
297
FD doing a similar promo for Cs vs Wiz on Sunday for any of you located down here in the DMV (pretty sure FD runs a lot of location specific promos). Every 500 people the line improves. Wiz currently at +51.5 with max bet $50.
 

HomeRunBaker

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FD doing a similar promo for Cs vs Wiz on Sunday for any of you located down here in the DMV (pretty sure FD runs a lot of location specific promos). Every 500 people the line improves. Wiz currently at +51.5 with max bet $50.
51.5 with the Wizards? Still may need a back door correct.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Ok now I’m into doing Prop work on top of 100 college games, NBA, and in-game Euro soccer. My life wasn’t hectic enough. I only found this on one of my sites so far so hopefully you have it too......

* Donovan Mitchell Over 6 Assists (+100)

Conley is out again so DM will have the ball in his hands majority of the time. He dropped 9 dimes vs Boston on Tuesday and my thinking is he will be even less of a finisher in the paint against Lopez/Giannis so expect ton of dribble penetration and kick outs to the shooters. Jazz are hitting 3’s at a ridiculous rate above 40% so enough should drop to reach 7 assists.
 

BigSoxFan

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Ok now I’m into doing Prop work on top of 100 college games, NBA, and in-game Euro soccer. My life wasn’t hectic enough. I only found this on one of my sites so far so hopefully you have it too......

* Donovan Mitchell Over 6 Assists (+100)

Conley is out again so DM will have the ball in his hands majority of the time. He dropped 9 dimes vs Boston on Tuesday and my thinking is he will be even less of a finisher in the paint against Lopez/Giannis so expect ton of dribble penetration and kick outs to the shooters. Jazz are hitting 3’s at a ridiculous rate above 40% so enough should drop to reach 7 assists.
I'm with you on this one. Got over 5.5 for -120 so combined that with Valanciunas double double for +175.
 

Light-Tower-Power

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Ok now I’m into doing Prop work on top of 100 college games, NBA, and in-game Euro soccer. My life wasn’t hectic enough. I only found this on one of my sites so far so hopefully you have it too......

* Donovan Mitchell Over 6 Assists (+100)

Conley is out again so DM will have the ball in his hands majority of the time. He dropped 9 dimes vs Boston on Tuesday and my thinking is he will be even less of a finisher in the paint against Lopez/Giannis so expect ton of dribble penetration and kick outs to the shooters. Jazz are hitting 3’s at a ridiculous rate above 40% so enough should drop to reach 7 assists.
Got in at Mitchell over 5.5. -121 not great but playable and like your reasoning.