Bursting Your Bubble: the 2020-21 NBA Gambling Thread

HomeRunBaker

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Conclusion - Contunue looking for inflated Totals with Phoenix, New Orleans and the Clippers while the getting is still good and keep eyes open for injury and rest games missed in these games. Plenty of clues here.
Phoenix moves to 7-0 to the Under on the year with none of them really close. All but one of the Suns games have failed to reach 210.

Clippers goes Under by 14 tonight and Dallas landed on 176 which was only 49 points under the closing number. :oops:

These numbers will adjust soon so keep grabbing them while you can. On Sat, the Pelicans opened at 216 and sits at 215 now. I’m guessing it gets to 211-212 by game time.

Edit: Pels down to 213 overnight.
 
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ElUno20

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Hrb, couldnt post last night but i was tethering on taking the clipps and suns unders, you pushed me over the top. Thank you. I ate.

Im gonna wait for an overreaction in the pels game and bet the live under
 

HomeRunBaker

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Hrb, couldnt post last night but i was tethering on taking the clipps and suns unders, you pushed me over the top. Thank you. I ate.

Im gonna wait for an overreaction in the pels game and bet the live under
Standard NBA variance. Neither team showed much interest in locking down. Oh well, you ate yesterday and we’re on to Cincinnati.
 

HomeRunBaker

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What number did you get Suns/Clippers at, HRB? Got it now for 215.5. Forgot to check earlier today when it came out.
219 last night.

As expected in the NBA, the schedule catches up to Phoenix and they are down 30 in the 2Q.

Edit: Knew that didn’t sound right. I checked time stamp I got it this morning at 9am at 219
 

HomeRunBaker

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Portland/Golden State at 94 with 7 to go in 1H. Looking to get involved with some in-game Under at some point. These two teams slowed pace in 2H of game the other night. As soon as the Blazers sit Kanter will be my first portion of a buy. The Warriors are running PNR at him every possession. Words can’t describe how bad a defender Kanter is.

Edit: Kanter out.Filled 25% at Under 241.5

Edit: Added 25% more at Under 234.5 at half but game not slowing down so just gonna ride this out with fingers crossed.
 
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HomeRunBaker

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You’ll see this one on Scott Van Pelt’s show. For those not watching.....

* At 214, Paul misses 3.

* Beverley grabs long rebound and dribbles toward center of court to run clock out as 8 other players on the floor observe him......

* .....except Crowder who reaches out and takes a foul.

* Bev makes both to make it 216. I say a prayer for shawnrbu

* Paul advances ball to Bridges without much urgency.as they are down 8 with clock winding down.

* Bridges leans in off balance for a half-ass desperation 30-footer as George attempts a block and fouls on the 3 with 1.8 on clock.

* Bridges makes all 3 for my push at 219 and a loss for many others as number closed at 215.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Portland/Golden State at 94 with 7 to go in 1H. Looking to get involved with some in-game Under at some point. These two teams slowed pace in 2H of game the other night. As soon as the Blazers sit Kanter will be my first portion of a buy. The Warriors are running PNR at him every possession. Words can’t describe how bad a defender Kanter is.

Edit: Kanter out.Filled 25% at Under 241.5

Edit: Added 25% more at Under 234.5 at half but game not slowing down so just gonna ride this out with fingers crossed.
Would have been a nice and easy Under if not for Curry’s 62. Who da fvck pissed that guy off this week?:rolleyes:
 

HomeRunBaker

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Finally a game Celtics fans can sink their teeth into tonight.

Wizards love the carefree up and down pace while having an elite scorer in Beal. RWB will probably sit (finger, B2B tomorrow) so that’s more touches for Beal and Bryant which isn’t a bad thing. Boston will be going small early and often so the C’s should be a willing dance partner for the Wizards uptemp game.

* Over 235 (feel free to enjoy some O119 1H as well if you’d like)
 

ElUno20

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HRB, did you leave us and living on your own private island off 3 weeks of nba?
 

HomeRunBaker

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HRB, did you leave us and living on your own private island off 3 weeks of nba?
Looking for an NBATV prop bet?

* Steph “My Man” Curry Over 29.5 Pts (-125)

Hes usually lethal coming off horrid games. At home vs Pacers who are in midst of a WC swing and likely without best backcourt defender in Oladipo tonight should be a great spot for him to reach 30.


Edit: Been a strange week for me. Either sweep the card or get swept.
 
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HomeRunBaker

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Bastard is getting back at me tonight.

Steph Curry’s 1Q:
0-2 FG
0-2 FT
0 Points

Bum!!
 

HomeRunBaker

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I’ll try to begin posting more in here as there continues to be some super spots in this league. It will be mostly Totals and I’ll limit to only those that stand out.

*Over 109 1H Celtics/Sixers.

Philly is 4th in Pace and looking for Boston to come out energized following the (predictable) early Sunday snooze fest. Curry returns for Philly to boost their 2nd unit scoring as well. I am not opposed to a sprinkle on the correlated parlay with Boston ML/Over at just under 4-1 either (I got it at +388).

Many times I will play my preflop Overs for 1H for various reasons. In this case I’m expecting the Celtics to come out with extra focus early and a faster 1H pace. If you want full game it’s 220 and I’ll be looking at live betting the game Over if it presents itself.


Edit: College bonus total.

* Over 85.5 1H Mercer/Citadel.

Citadel a Top-10 Pace team, Top 15% 3-pt shooting team and 9th worst in Opp Scoring. Mercer is Top 20% Pace and good scoring team who will be a willing running partner here.
 
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HowBoutDemSox

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I’ll try to begin posting more in here as there continues to be some super spots in this league. It will be mostly Totals and I’ll limit to only those that stand out.

*Over 109 1H Celtics/Sixers.

Philly is 4th in Pace and looking for Boston to come out energized following the (predictable) early Sunday snooze fest. Curry returns for Philly to boost their 2nd unit scoring as well. I am not opposed to a sprinkle on the correlated parlay with Boston ML/Over at just under 4-1 either (I got it at +388).

Many times I will play my preflop Overs for 1H for various reasons. In this case I’m expecting the Celtics to come out with extra focus early and a faster 1H pace. If you want full game it’s 220 and I’ll be looking at live betting the game Over if it presents itself.
No Seth Curry, no problem.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Here are a couple good Totals for tonight.

* Under 224 Nets/Cavs (got it at 227 earlier, still like it here)

147-135 is a bit ( a lot?) deceiving as 56 of those points were scored in the OT. Expecting Durant to sit this one out as well.


* Over 227.5 Bull/Hornets.

Chicago is 2nd Pace on year and a big bump up in last 3 games. Their defensive ineptitude should also prop up Charlotte’s perimeter offense. I think this will be wide open for 48 min without either really digging in defensively in 2H so went full game number.



* NCAA junkie bonus total play since we won the last one posted: Under 124 SD State/Air Force. It will be a struggle to crack 100. I’m thinking 64-47 final.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Not much time with so much hoops today but these stand out tonight in NBA.

* Miami +7.5 (and ML)

* Under 227.5 Lakers/Bulls
 

HomeRunBaker

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Sunday Unday!

* U218.5 Pacers/Raptors

* U213.5 Cavs/Celtics

* U214 Magic/Hornets

* U221.5 Clippers/Thunder

* Thunder +13.5
 

HomeRunBaker

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Sunday Unday!

* U218.5 Pacers/Raptors

* U213.5 Cavs/Celtics

* U214 Magic/Hornets

* U221.5 Clippers/Thunder

* Thunder +13.5
Only Doug Moe’s Boston Celtics prevented a sweep here. Looking at the Pacers/Raptors and Clippers/Thunder playing in those 1pm local start times both were easy Unders which is consistent with the early start time games. These are pretty much auto-plays and not a clue how the market hasn’t adjusted over the years to the early Sunday sluggish games, particularly by the home team.

Two overnight games for Monday.

* Under 214.5 Lakers/Cavs. (Under Cavs TT is good here too)

The Lakers pace splits aren’t affected by venue however they play to a 211.5 avg on the road compared to 226.5 at home. Only two road games have eclipsed their home avg and these were totals of 227 and 228.

I expect the Lakers to be in “take care of business” mode rather than looking to push tempo in the middle of an eastern road swing and Cleveland should have similar struggles scoring as the Bulls did a couple days ago in a game I also had the Under as a best bet. Thinking 110-95 final.

* Not giving this out as a play yet since no number is posted due to multiple injury questions but looking at the Over in Pacers/Raptors on the backend of their series. I’ll update once it’s posted Keep in mind that it opened at 219 on Sunday and closed at 217.
 

HomeRunBaker

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In addition to Lakers Under, which is now down to 212.5, I’m playing......

* Over 217.5 Pacers/Raptors

* Over 216.5 Sixers/Pistons.

Edit: I want to pull trigger on the Bulls here and still may. Tough spot for Celtics if you were thinking of the C’s tonight.....has all the makings of a “scheduling - bad loss.”



#bonus ncaab
#added games

* Presbyterian +8
* Prairie View -9
 
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HomeRunBaker

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Another 4 out of 5 day. Nice run!

Hopefully, the Cavs can keep it close enough through 3 to go in live on the Under early in the 4th.
In-games used to be 55.5 on average and sometimes 56.5 for the Lakers 4Q. This years it’s been a rock solid 53.5 at start of 4Q so I haven’t been touching it until 7-8 min left if the situation warrants it.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Got it at 230.5 at the end of the 3rd. Live line at 223.5 with 4 to go so we’re both in decent shape.
Very nice. You got a huge sweat too lol.

Sunday afternoon Unders and Laker 4Q Unders keep knocking it out at ridiculous rates. The latter is situational but those Sundays are gold as auto bets.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Super great awesome setup for tonight (Disclaimer: always be wary of super great awesome setups). Utah in middle of extended home stretch coming off 3 straight easy double digit wins. Tomorrow night they host Luka and the Mavericks for 2 divisional games. Certainly the recipe for overlooking the Thibs-inspired Knicks is in tonight’s cookbook. Only one side to even consider in this one and I’m playing that side.

* Knicks +11.5
 

HomeRunBaker

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Played a rare Prop in tonight’s Knicks/Jazz game.

* Donovan Mitchell Under 25.5 Pts


Such weird steam hit the Hawks/Clippers Over beginning around 90 min prior to tip taking it from 221.5 to close at 226.5 without any real news as we knew George and Kawhi were sitting out. The steam is getting cooked......it’s 44-39 with 3 min to go in the half.
 

BigSoxFan

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I did Knicks +11.5. What’s the rationale for Donovan under 25.5?

I’ve been killing it on Jaylen overs when Tatum is out.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I did Knicks +11.5. What’s the rationale for Donovan under 25.5?

I’ve been killing it on Jaylen overs when Tatum is out.
Same angle of this game being a huge flat spot for Utah. Mitchell is 0-3 with 0 points after 1Q so looking good on all counts early here.

I quickly bought some Knicks ML at +334 and spread at +8.5 once I could see the flat spot was confirmed.
 

BigSoxFan

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Same angle of this game being a huge flat spot for Utah. Mitchell is 0-3 with 0 points after 1Q so looking good on all counts early here.

I quickly bought some Knicks ML at +334 and spread at +8.5 once I could see the flat spot was confirmed.
Good calls. Rivers 10-10!
 

HomeRunBaker

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Just incredibly sloppy play from them in 2nd half. Still a good play.
Always dangerous fading a team that is as good as the Jazz while they are clicking. Too good a spot to pass up though. We’re on to Cincinnati.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I hope people haven’t forgotten the Laker 4Q narrative even if I’m not here posting about it. Four of their last five have been strong with these last two vs Pistons and Celtics legit epic.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Over a month into the NBA season and still some bad lines out there. In no particular order, I like them all good.

* Knicks +3.5

* Hornets +6

* Under 217.5 Suns/Mavs
 

HomeRunBaker

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Over a month into the NBA season and still some bad lines out there. In no particular order, I like them all good.

* Knicks +3.5

* Hornets +6

* Under 217.5 Suns/Mavs
Only theKnicks prevented the SoSH sweep last night and I should know better than to play them as a short dog. They are the type of team that excels as a big dog even in the ML while exhaling against similarly flawed teams.

The one game to stand out preflop are the......

* San Francisco (formerly Oakland) Warriors +2.5

Moreso a fade on the Celtics without Smart flying cross country as a fav. This is a tough 5-game stretch to be without Smart and a not-in-game-shape Kemba. If you blindly fade (bet against) the Celtics in these 5 games the risk is much greater that they go 2-3 or worse than 3-2 or better imo. Normal play tonight but I’ll be looking for a potential good max bet spot on this trip.

In-game bettors keep an eye on these high total games tonight. If the pace is as expected early and score low say midway 1Q due to poor shooting you can find great Over spots in the low 230’s rather than preflop in low 240’s.
 

Mloaf71

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Jul 13, 2005
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HRB, I'm seeing tonight's O/U at 227 on FanDuel currently...Going to jump on the Over since it seems like a good bet.

Only theKnicks prevented the SoSH sweep last night and I should know better than to play them as a short dog. They are the type of team that excels as a big dog even in the ML while exhaling against similarly flawed teams.

The one game to stand out preflop are the......

* San Francisco (formerly Oakland) Warriors +2.5

Moreso a fade on the Celtics without Smart flying cross country as a fav. This is a tough 5-game stretch to be without Smart and a not-in-game-shape Kemba. If you blindly fade (bet against) the Celtics in these 5 games the risk is much greater that they go 2-3 or worse than 3-2 or better imo. Normal play tonight but I’ll be looking for a potential good max bet spot on this trip.

In-game bettors keep an eye on these high total games tonight. If the pace is as expected early and score low say midway 1Q due to poor shooting you can find great Over spots in the low 230’s rather than preflop in low 240’s.
 

HomeRunBaker

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HRB, I'm seeing tonight's O/U at 227 on FanDuel currently...Going to jump on the Over since it seems like a good bet.
I lean that way and may play it live if game gets off to slow start but nothing for me pre. I don’t envision either team looking to lock down the other it should be a free flowing game.....especially if Draymond is out or limited (currently listed as probable). GL