Bursting Your Bubble: the 2020-21 NBA Gambling Thread

DannyDarwinism

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Weird year coming up, but anyone particularly strong on anything? I get there’s Giannis fatigue and Luka hype, but still, you can get him at +550 for MVP when he looks primed to put up the same numbers he did last year for the team that's projected to win the most games, so yeah, I'm on that. I like Dame at +1400 and Jokic at +2500. I love Toronto at 41.5, like the Spurs at 29.5 and the Thunder at 22.5.

Throwing some chips on RoY in order of confidence- Vassel +6600, Haliburton +1800, Killian Hayes +900, Cole Anthony +3300, Facu Campazzo +8000, Payton Pritchard +8000, Toppin +600. I got Immanuel Quickley at +10000. These are a mix of Bovada and DK and may have changed from when I made them.

Gimme your hottest takes.
 
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Cellar-Door

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Hawks wins under- That team is still very bad.
Blazers wins under depending where it is at your book (42 or higher I'm taking the under)... their defense isn't going to get much better so long as they have that backcourt
 

Sam Ray Not

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Weird year coming up, but anyone particularly strong on anything? I get there’s Giannis fatigue and Luka hype, but still, you can get him at +550 for MVP when he looks primed to put up the same numbers he did last year for the team that's projected to win the most games, so yeah, I'm on that. I like Dame at +1400 and Jokic at +2500. I love Toronto at 41.5, like the Spurs at 29.5 and the Thunder at 22.5.

Throwing some chips on RoY in order of confidence- Vassel +6600, Haliburton +1800, Killian Hayes +900, Cole Anthony +3300, Facu Campazzo +8000, Payton Pritchard +8000, Toppin +600. I got Immanuel Quickley at +10000. These are a mix of Bovada and DK and may have changed from when I made them.

Gimme your hottest takes.
Where’s Wiseman? After whiffing on Gasol and Baynes, I get the sense the Warriors are all in on the Big Ticket as their only full-size C. I’d guess he’ll be starting within 5-10 games or so, playing 20-25 minutes minimum, and getting 14 pts 10 reb minimum on mostly putbacks and dunks, with huge block numbers. But all that might be factored into his ROY odds.

Love the Quickley ROY pick at those odds: the Knicks are going to be terrible, the Toppin pick was dumb (imo), they have no other even half-decent point guards, and NYC badly needs something to be hopeful about.

I’d gladly throw in some $$$ for Curry MVP, but largely for sentimental reasons, as I can’t imagine the odds would be great. Everybody loves Steph and wants him to return to MVP form this year; and the CA teams tend to be overvalued by Vegas.

Edit: slight amendment on Wiseman — Kerr ran him extensively alongside Steph in today’s scrimmage and is making noises about possibly starting him on opening night, which is insane given that he has participated in all of two full practices, and I think testament to how much he has wowed teammates and coaches in his brief time as a Warrior. Definitely buy some Wiseman stock unless it has already skyrocketed...
 
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DannyDarwinism

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Where’s Wiseman? After whiffing on Gasol and Baynes, I get the sense the Warriors are all in on the Big Ticket as their only full-size C. I’d guess he’ll be starting within 5-10 games or so, playing 20-25 minutes minimum, and getting 14 pts 10 reb minimum on mostly putbacks and dunks, with huge block numbers. But all that might be factored into his ROY odds.

Love the Quickley ROY pick at those odds: the Knicks are going to be terrible, the Toppin pick was dumb (imo), they have no other even half-decent point guards, and NYC badly needs something to be hopeful about.

I’d gladly throw in some $$$ for Curry MVP, but largely for sentimental reasons, as I can’t imagine the odds would be great. Everybody loves Steph and wants him to return to MVP form this year; and the CA teams tend to be overvalued by Vegas.

Are there odds for “Kelly Oubre is gonna be really good”?
+600 DK and +550 Bovada. I’d rather have ‘Melo at +400 and 350, respectively, but my picks are mostly me fading them. Apparently (I’m sure your aware) Kerr has been downplaying Wiseman’s playing time, and my picks are mainly about opportunity (like Hayes, Cole, Quickly and fast PP in unsettled back courts) more than talent, and I generally prefer guards. I’m worried the Dubs will be trying to win- Kerr loves Looney and Chriss has earned time.

I’m staying away from Curry at +550, there’s a lot of sentiment behind that line. I’ll just enjoy watching the best shooter ever, unadulterated by pecuniary concerns. Gimme Dame at +1800 instead- I’d have them pretty close to even head-to-head anyway. Tre’s a decent long shot at +10000 if you’re bullish on the Hawks, but like Cellar-Door, I am not. Ben Simmons at +10000 is interesting. Maybe he’s motivated by the trade rumors and finally heeds his coach begging him to take a damn open jump shot once in a while. Or maybe he’s wasting away in Fertittaville.

Oubre’s going to put up really good numbers.
 

Sam Ray Not

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Apparently (I’m sure your aware) Kerr has been downplaying Wiseman’s playing time
He was, but seems to have already changed that tune a bit. After today's scrimmage he said, "His conditioning looked really good. I was very impressed, given that he had only the one 12-minute scrimmage the other day. This was a full team scrimmage. We went two full quarters. He played with the starters so I could get a look at him with Steph and Andrew and Kelly. He had a really good day. He just looked like he picked a lot of things up in the last few days. He's progressing nicely. I'm very excited about James and he should be ready to go Tuesday night ... James is going to be our starting center before too long. It might happen Tuesday." Really unusual for Kerr to be that blunt about his plans for a young player.

In other Warriors news (wrong thread for it, sorry) Draymond tweaked something in his first practice. Apparently a mild strain in his ankle or foot, but enough to keep him out for what would have been a really fun opening night battle with KD. His passing would have been good for a few eye-popping Wiseman alley-oops, too. Goddamit, hoops gods, can you let the Warriors go one fvcking week without a major player getting hurt?
 

DannyDarwinism

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He was, but seems to have already changed that tune a bit. After today's scrimmage he said, "His conditioning looked really good. I was very impressed, given that he had only the one 12-minute scrimmage the other day. This was a full team scrimmage. We went two full quarters. He played with the starters so I could get a look at him with Steph and Andrew and Kelly. He had a really good day. He just looked like he picked a lot of things up in the last few days. He's progressing nicely. I'm very excited about James and he should be ready to go Tuesday night ... James is going to be our starting center before too long. It might happen Tuesday." Really unusual for Kerr to be that blunt about his plans for a young player.
Yeah, that would be bad news for my RotY bets. I probably need him to be under ~ 28ish mpg, and for Lamelo to be under ~38 FG% for one of my guys to take it. I’m feeling a lot better about the latter than the former now. That said, I might lay some more down on Cole Anthony. He’s looked good so far, there’s opportunity for him for a lot of minutes, and he’s got name recognition. I like his price a lot.

Edit to add- Pelton has Wiseman projected at 18 mpg, fwiw.
 
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HomeRunBaker

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Wait! The season begins this week? I haven’t put any work at all into the preseason. Combine this with the potential game cancellations as well as my props taking it in the arse down the stretch of the past 3 years I may take a pass this go around. I’ll short Atlanta for sure (listed win total is laughable even in a weak division) as many ways as I can but if I do anything else’s I’ll post here. Staying in that division I may buy some Orlando as they finally seem to have a lot of bandwagoners jump off their back. Trying to find a plus money Magic > Hawks prop to no avail so far. Good buy low spot here.

Majority of my daily NBA plays are in-game so looking forward to this and I’ll be much more involved in player props now that these are more readily available.
 
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Kliq

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I don't really gamble, but since we are all going to be at home Christmas Day, I suggested to my parents that we do some prop bets for the NBA on Christmas Day. What would be the best way to do that while online, in Massachusetts? Should I just like, make an account on Bovada?
 

Light-Tower-Power

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I don't really gamble, but since we are all going to be at home Christmas Day, I suggested to my parents that we do some prop bets for the NBA on Christmas Day. What would be the best way to do that while online, in Massachusetts? Should I just like, make an account on Bovada?
If you’re just looking to place some props ahead of time, drive to the nearest parking lot in NH or RI and place your bets on the DraftKings Sportsbook app. You don’t have to go back to withdraw your winnings should any of them hit.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Is this the thread where I post my Laker 2H Unders? If so, we’ve got some Under 217.5 to begin the 2H and may add more later.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Is this the thread where I post my Laker 2H Unders? If so, we’ve got some Under 217.5 to begin the 2H and may add more later.
Added U222.5 (L) and U230.5 (W), the latter with about 7:30 to go when the game began crawling to a walk. I’m so good at blowing early due to greed rather than being patient and waiting for the layup. Oh well it’s a long season.

I don’t play a ton of reg season preflop (compared to in-game) but tonight there is one specific game that made me look twice at the number thinking the other side was favored. This only happens in the first week of the season barring injuries, COVID, etc. Toronto is listed as the “home team” despite living in a hotel in Tampa. Give me the Pelicans +4, who I do like this year w/Adam’s reinforcement but this is more of a fade on the Raptors, who along with Atlanta, are two of my favorite fades to start the year.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Probably waiting until late to get the best number here while hoping for enormous overreaction if Houston is super short handed and can only dress 8. Love this spot for the Rockets as they could suddenly be thrust into an underdog “us against the world” role vs OKC.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I don’t play a ton of reg season preflop (compared to in-game) but tonight there is one specific game that made me look twice at the number thinking the other side was favored. This only happens in the first week of the season barring injuries, COVID, etc. Toronto is listed as the “home team” despite living in a hotel in Tampa. Give me the Pelicans +4, who I do like this year w/Adam’s reinforcement but this is more of a fade on the Raptors, who along with Atlanta, are two of my favorite fades to start the year.
In the process of receiving two reminders that the off-season had masked from my process.

1. I remember why I hate betting against Kyle Lowry. It’s like he knows when I’m on the other side.

2. I remember why I despite playing the NBA regular season preflop.
 

HomeRunBaker

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In the process of receiving two reminders that the off-season had masked from my process.

1. I remember why I hate betting against Kyle Lowry. It’s like he knows when I’m on the other side.

2. I remember why I despite playing the NBA regular season preflop.
Works like a charm every time. Magic. ;)
 

HomeRunBaker

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* Bought some Bucks -9.5 on Christmas Day versus the Draymondless Warriors before it hits 10.5-11
 

benhogan

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No muscles to flex. I'm still bearish on the Hawks relative to what I gather seems to be the Atlanta fan consensus - i.e., that we'll be in the top 6 playoff seeds and battling for the top 4 - but as far as season openers go, I can't complain!
whoa, battling for the top 4 or top 6 is crazy talk.

I'd think the 8th-seed, with good health, would be an excellent result

congrats on last night and good luck on the season
 
whoa, battling for the top 4 or top 6 is crazy talk.
I completely agree that the Hawks can't possibly be in the top 4. I can see scenarios where they do sneak into the #6 seed and avoid the play-in games, but I'd agree that by far the most likely scenario is that they will be involved in the play-in games - hopefully as #7 or #8, but quite possibly as #9 or #10.
 

benhogan

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I completely agree that the Hawks can't possibly be in the top 4. I can see scenarios where they do sneak into the #6 seed and avoid the play-in games, but I'd agree that by far the most likely scenario is that they will be involved in the play-in games - hopefully as #7 or #8, but quite possibly as #9 or #10.
I'd guess it would be Indiana, Hawks, Orlando for 7-9... some media people were throwing the Wizards into the mix, but don't see it. They are clearly better than the Knicks, Pistons, Cavs, Hornets & Bulls (the 5 potential early sellers of talent at the trade deadline)
 

HomeRunBaker

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Unders!! Unders Here!! Get your Christmas Unders Here!!! Really love these two plays for Christmas.

* U226 Heat/Pels

Where to begin? Heat aren’t in the bubble anymore, Pels have reinforced their defense which should result in reduced pace, early start time. You’ve got my blessing to hammer away here as it’s my best of the two. If you want a correlated parlay or a play on the side I’on the Pels here.

* U227 Mavs/Lakers

These teams tend to settle into a half court game when they matchup. Last years regulation time totals were 203, 214 and 203 until the Lakers dropped 45 in the 1Q (and 79 in 1H in the 4th meeting and aberration. We also benefit from the Lakers 4Q pace should they have the lead.

* College XMas bonus for you degen channel flippers.

- Under 140 Wisc/Mich St
- Purdue -6
 

HomeRunBaker

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Got them both HRB, though it's U224.5 for the Heat/Pels on DK.
Yeah it moved right away. It’s now steamed down to 221.5 and Heat are down to -3. Second game total steamed down to 230.5 which I can understand. The Warriors could be really bad again this year without much offense beyond Curry. Bucks up to 10.5 as well.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Did I say shitty props? I meant fantastic props. Profitable Christmas regardless of what happens with the Lakers and Mavs.
Very nice. This Wiseman kid has no ceiling it all depends on his commitment and work ethic. I want to see you experience the Christmas Sweep!!
 

Sam Ray Not

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Wiseman’s work ethic is by all accounts a big plus. He added that smooth three ball along with 15-20 lbs of muscle during the layoff. Kerr said today he’s gonna be ramping up his minutes, too. Probably too late to buy low on ROY, but if +550 or anywhere close is still available, I’d get in on that...

 

HomeRunBaker

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Laker game is setting up nicely for some 2H and especially 4Q Unders on about every angle.
 

BigSoxFan

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Wiseman’s work ethic is by all accounts a big plus. He added that smooth three ball along with 15-20 lbs of muscle during the layoff. Kerr said today he’s gonna be ramping up his minutes, too. Probably too late to buy low on ROY, but if +550 or anywhere close is still available, I’d get in on that...

Down to +250 on Draft Kings
 

DannyDarwinism

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Wiseman’s work ethic is by all accounts a big plus. He added that smooth three ball along with 15-20 lbs of muscle during the layoff. Kerr said today he’s gonna be ramping up his minutes, too. Probably too late to buy low on ROY, but if +550 or anywhere close is still available, I’d get in on that...

I was fading the favorites, but Wiseman sure looks like the real deal. He had some rookie mistakes and there was a point or two where the game was moving a bit too fast for him, but overall I thought he looked really promising. His movement for his size is so special, and his jumper looks true. Developing him should be the primary goal this year.

Anthony Edwards has flashed too, so I’m not too optimistic about my early RotY tickets, but if I had to double down on one of them, I think it’s be Cole as he’s had the best combo of opportunity and production.
 

Light-Tower-Power

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I bailed on the Lakers under when they’d still let me cash out for a small profit on the parlay with the Heat under. Doubled my money today and not looking to get greedy.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Laker game is setting up nicely for some 2H and especially 4Q Unders on about every angle.
Too much Laker run at end of half. Waiting before pulling any trigger to be sure this game tightens up as we can’t afford a free flowing blowout with an Under.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Not ideal but good enough to take a 25% position on Under 238.5 to start the 4Q and evaluate from there. It seems like we can find real good numbers with around 7 min to go if the spot it intact so want to save most of positron for then.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Not ideal but good enough to take a 25% position on Under 238.5 to start the 4Q and evaluate from there. It seems like we can find real good numbers with around 7 min to go if the spot it intact so want to save most of positron for then.
Fired 75% Under 240.5 at the timeout.

Edit: Well that didn’t work out too well. Harrell w B2B step back jumpers over Boban followed by an AD 3 with blowout in process. Was looking to keep it within 10 so LeBron would return and control pace walking it up. Shoot me now.
 
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Light-Tower-Power

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Absolutely loaded the Raptors against the Spurs +150 when they were down 1 to the Spurs in the third. Lost to the officials and DeRozan bombing away threes. This league is a three point shooting contest and a refereeing shitshow. Fucking stupid.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Hey if anyone’s around you can get some good value on Lakers 2H Over 112.5

LeBron should be limited or sitting out w ankle so you’ll get lots of up and down action without much defense in a blowout game. Wolves shot 3-22 from three so hopefully more open looks will bump up this pct too.

Edit. 3Q looked good w in-game number up to 6-7 pts ahead of pace.....then the 4Q happened, I think they have a combined 10 pts in first 5 min.
 
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HomeRunBaker

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If you are quick to the draw you can catch value on these Total openers before they get hit. It’s the classic balance between what is small sample and what is real.....and how to differentiate between the two.

The bottom 4 teams this year in Poss/g are Phoenix, New Orleans, Dallas, and LA Clippers. Without looking at data or lineup changes our brains are trained over all of last season to suggest these are more up-tempo teams. They were ranked 9th, 2nd, 15th and 10th respectively in Poss/g last season. So what has changed with each of these teams?

Phoenix - No coaching change on the bench but major leadership change on the floor w Paul for Rubio. Crowder for Oubre to lesser extent. I’ve been on the Paul under train this year and it still hasn’t fully adjusted. Tonight’s opened 224.5 and aleeady bet down to 220.5 Most definitely real.

New Orleans - System from Gentry to Van Gundy is most significant. Bledsoe/Adams for Jrue/Favors screams halfcourt play as well. Also real and actually greater drop in poss/g than Phoe.

Dallas - Slight drop of 2 poss/g as they were middle of the pack last year. Would have to dig more but seems to be attributed to loss of Porzingis and his offense early in shot clock. No overall scheme change that I’ve seen probably only diff is Porzingis 3’s trailing on delayed break a couple times a night.

LA Clippers - Rivers to Lue wouldn’t seem to make impact as this is a protege situation and looking at Lue in Cleveland doesn’t tell us much since that was LeBrons show. On the floor the addition of Batum, Kennard and Ibaka would seem to indicate a slower pace so I’ll go with real.....but much less than the Pels and Suns.



Conclusion - Contunue looking for inflated Totals with Phoenix, New Orleans and the Clippers while the getting is still good and keep eyes open for injury and rest games missed in these games. Plenty of clues here.
 
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