No Darwinzon any time soon - major injury (torn meniscus)
View: https://twitter.com/IanMBrowne/status/1527379747092803584
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Bullpen ‘22
- Thread starter Sandy Leon Trotsky
- Start date
Bad luck for him. Hate to say it, but the extra 40-man roster spot might be more valuable at this point.
Ryan Brasier is going to be optioned for Wacha's return from the IL.
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Which is probably why he was optioned rather than DFA, I suppose. He and Danish both are the definition of fungible middle reliever. Ideally, they eat some innings in blowout situations (leading or trailing) and save wear and tear on the better relievers on the roster. Best case scenario, the team catches lightning in a bottle and takes full advantage of any hot streaks they get on (like Brasier in 2018).
It's baffling that the one asset most teams have, fungible right-handed relievers, is what the Sox pen lacks in spades. Who can Cora trust in a tight situation among Barnes, Danish, Sawamura, Robles, and Schreiber? (I don't count Houck, as his job seems to be in the once every 5 days category.)
Schreiber is interesting, but that seems to be only because he is the one guy out there averaging less than 4.5 walks per 9. (SSS, though)
There's nobody down in Worcester either. Kaleb Ort has been ortful, Bazardo seems to be a AAAA guy, we already know about Phillips Valdez , and Durbin Feltman has been worse than Ort. And only Valdez is on the 40-man, because we all know how important protecting Ronaldo Hernandez must be.
It's a problem.
Schreiber is interesting, but that seems to be only because he is the one guy out there averaging less than 4.5 walks per 9. (SSS, though)
There's nobody down in Worcester either. Kaleb Ort has been ortful, Bazardo seems to be a AAAA guy, we already know about Phillips Valdez , and Durbin Feltman has been worse than Ort. And only Valdez is on the 40-man, because we all know how important protecting Ronaldo Hernandez must be.
It's a problem.
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Bazardo has thrown all of three innings in the majors. Kutter Crawford is another guy worth mentioning in this connection, and both Frank German and AJ Politi should be ahead of Ort and Feltman on this depth chart.
We're getting there.
Politi and German are interesting, but why would Kutter Crawford be worth mentioning? I mean I guess he''s fungible, but he really shouldn't be given innings at the ML level right now.
FWIW he had four almost-perfect innings (no hits, no walks, 1 HBP) in his only AAA outing since going down.
https://www.milb.com/gameday/railriders-vs-red-sox/2022/05/19/664361#game_state=final,lock_state=final,game_tab=box,game=664361
That's fair, but with only 2 Ks; without seeing the game, I"m not sure whether Crawford got lucky. Crawford has been hot and cold in MLB. I think its better to get him some innings where that risk is more limited.
EDIT: I guess it makes him fungible -- I'd just rate Valdez, Barnes, Braiser, and most of the other relievers over him right now.
Bumping this thread to discuss Matt Barnes.
Cora can't use him in any situation now, low or high leverage. However, my guess is every time they think of DFA'ing him, they hear a little voice saying 'Daniel Bard....Daniel Bard....
Sure, if you've got 9 years....
Schreiber seems to be proof that if you throw the ball over the plate, good things can happen. Surely there has to be somebody in Worcester who can do that better than Matt Barnes, right?
Cora can't use him in any situation now, low or high leverage. However, my guess is every time they think of DFA'ing him, they hear a little voice saying 'Daniel Bard....Daniel Bard....
Sure, if you've got 9 years....
Schreiber seems to be proof that if you throw the ball over the plate, good things can happen. Surely there has to be somebody in Worcester who can do that better than Matt Barnes, right?
I don't think anyone in the Red Sox organization or 98% of fans regrets Daniel Bard being released, other than concern over what the hell happened. Certainly not that he came back many years later to achieve success.
It's like if Julio Lugo showed up and hit .300 for the Marlins this year. No one would think twice about it. Other than the being dead part, of course
Dead Julio Lugo, not a pitcher, could probably throw strikes better than Matt Barnes right now.
Other than the money, what possible reason do they have for keeping him around? He's given up runs in 9 of his 18 appearances. He's averaging 7.2 walks per 9. Uptick on his fastball? Doesn't matter if he can't locate it.
I'm hoping for his trip to the IL at a minimum, if not a DFA.
Agree on all counts. Just doesn't make sense. I guess they can keep throwing him out there in games with double digit leads or deficits and he can't break anything that way
If nothing else, Barnes is throwing harder; he was averaging 95.3 mph with his fastball last night, a mile up from his season average, and hit 96. That makes two straight outings with improved velocity, which makes me wonder if the team wants to give him a bit more rope to see if that extra oomph can benefit him and if he'll keep regaining it. That or the FO feels like there aren't any viable internal replacements for him.
This needs to be the first move but how long do they wait? Until Sale returns? They also need to promote German. Sawamura is completely useless.
I don’t think they’ll actually do it. They’re too stubborn to admit their mistake and they’re insisting on piggybacking Houck with Hill.
Seldom does one see a team so effectively sabotage their own season but that’s what this team has done.
Sadly, I think you’re right. They will continue to trot the same guys out there and hope.
Dude. Whitlock was not the problem today. He gave the sox 6 innings of 2 run ball. You take that from your starter 99.99999999% of the time.
None of The 4 BP arms out of the pen had a clean inning.
And say Whitlock was in the pen like you are demanding. But he pitched 3 innings yesterday. He wouldnt be available today. So he wouldn’t have been able to help today.
The best way to use Whitlock for this BOS team was probably illustrated tonight: pitch him every five days on full rest but hold him until the 3rd or 4th. Treat the start of the game like it is 0-0 in the 7th or 8th, go with some of your best options and try to get it to Whitlock. If he can't finish the game, hopefully he can at least get close.
Or Houck starts, goes 4-5 and you hear people saying that he's taxing the bullpen.
Whitlock to the pen would help the pen, but would hurt the rotation. I think at this point you need to stick with Whitlock in the rotation until there is a viable option to replace him. You also have to be honest about where the Sox are and what they are competing for this year. If they can at least stay in the fringes of the playoff hunt, then you can move him to the pen later in the year.
At this point, what’s the solution? Kind of have to muddle through with what we have, no? Sending Sawamura down seems like a good idea. Maybe figure out what to do with Barnes. Available options on the 40-man are Bello, Crawford, Seabold, Groome, Winckowski, Valdez, and Brasier. Any of those guys likely to stabilize the pen? Granted incremental upgrades are still upgrades.
At this point, what’s the solution? Kind of have to muddle through with what we have, no? Sending Sawamura down seems like a good idea. Maybe figure out what to do with Barnes. Available options on the 40-man are Bello, Crawford, Seabold, Groome, Winckowski, Valdez, and Brasier. Any of those guys likely to stabilize the pen? Granted incremental upgrades are still upgrades.
Yah.
Yah. I mean there is a reason that Nates performance in the 2018 WS will never be repeated.
https://www.boston.com/sports/boston-red-sox/2018/10/27/nathan-eovaldi-turned-in-a-world-series-performance-for-the-ages/
If Whitlock is moved to the pen he will be used like any other reliever. He will pitch for a few days and then be unavailable for a few days. Hell even closers don’t pitch every time a team leads in the 9th. Especially if they just pitched a high stress 9th the previous day. Unless you want to proctor whitlock he is more valuable in the rotation
Not even and that's why I'm against him pitching out of the pen right now. Whitlock's history of pitching out of the pen shows that he most often has 2-4 days between appearances. IF the Sox had a great pen with defined roles then great, let him be that guy. It's not the case here.
Even if Whitlock was moved to the pen Cora would just use him every fifth day to piggyback off Rich Hill. I am really not that impressed with Cora's management this season. He either needs to allow Hill to go through the order a third time, put Hill in the bullpen and allow Houck to go through the order a third time, or put Whitlock in the bullpen and allow Houck to go through the order a third time. The whole idea of not allowing starters to go through the order a third time works when there is a decent bullpen. Blindly adhereing to a philosophy and not paying attention to the realities of the club, will lead to games like last night.
Not having better options than Brasier, awful.
View: https://twitter.com/sean_mcadam/status/1530554213293596672?s=21&t=U1jD6Wh8xTVbx9xjtQM9Zw
View: https://twitter.com/sean_mcadam/status/1530554213293596672?s=21&t=U1jD6Wh8xTVbx9xjtQM9Zw
As has been mentioned over and over again this season, these decisions are most likely part of the organizational philosophy and not something Cora decided in a vacuum.
I can accept that, but it doesn't change the fact it is a poor decision given how much the pen is struggling. This isn't a week worth of struggles, the pen has been getting hit hard all year long. How much longer does the pen have to breakdown before the organizational philosophy changes?
Politi and German both got 12 appearances for Portland this season and then were promoted to Worcester. My guess is they’ll give them about the same time at AAA and if they do well will then be available for Boston.
Others here will know better than I, but unless those two were doing something other worldly in AA it's going to take more than 12 appearances with WOOstah to get to the bigs unless there are a boatload of injuries.
Seems like the one major weakness that may not be able to be addressed within the system is a BP arm. Who would be available out there in a trade and who in the Sox system would be available? Lots of excess on the 40 man but likely nothing that would get a high quality reliever in return.
I do worry about the Gagne Effect- getting what should be a dominant closer, suddenly turns into garbage- as relievers are notoriously unpredictable. Shockingly Robles was a great pickup but I’d rather someone with a better track record and a habit of throwing strikes and not walking anyone.
Bello and Casas, Meyer and Yorke are the only untouchables for me.
I do worry about the Gagne Effect- getting what should be a dominant closer, suddenly turns into garbage- as relievers are notoriously unpredictable. Shockingly Robles was a great pickup but I’d rather someone with a better track record and a habit of throwing strikes and not walking anyone.
Bello and Casas, Meyer and Yorke are the only untouchables for me.
I think this is the guy. Good breeding stock.
View: https://twitter.com/Kaz19uehara/status/1365826126233423874?s=20&t=EyyDdWebv5GRBq-raNBzrg
Davis: 1.69 era, 1.27 whip, 9.7 k/9
Diekman: 3.50 era, 1.56 whip, 12.5 k/9
Danish: 3.38 era, 0.91 whip, 9.2 k/9
Robles: 2.65 era, 1.06 whip, 5.8 k/9
Schrieber: 1.42 era, 0.55 whip, 9.5 k/9
Houck (reliever): 3.79 era, 1.16 whip, 9.0 k/9
Whitlock (reliever): 0.93 era, 0.62 whip, 10.2 k/9
Strahm: 3.68 era, 1.02 whip, 9.8 k/9
So that's all really good actually. Solid group. And then...
Brasier: 5.71 era, 1.44 whip, 9.3 k/9
Barnes: 7.94 era, 1.71 whip, 7.4 k/9
Two arms that were instrumental in their 2018 title have been godawful this year. If they can improve those two spots (sorry guys...might be time to go), then the pen actually is pretty solid.
Diekman: 3.50 era, 1.56 whip, 12.5 k/9
Danish: 3.38 era, 0.91 whip, 9.2 k/9
Robles: 2.65 era, 1.06 whip, 5.8 k/9
Schrieber: 1.42 era, 0.55 whip, 9.5 k/9
Houck (reliever): 3.79 era, 1.16 whip, 9.0 k/9
Whitlock (reliever): 0.93 era, 0.62 whip, 10.2 k/9
Strahm: 3.68 era, 1.02 whip, 9.8 k/9
So that's all really good actually. Solid group. And then...
Brasier: 5.71 era, 1.44 whip, 9.3 k/9
Barnes: 7.94 era, 1.71 whip, 7.4 k/9
Two arms that were instrumental in their 2018 title have been godawful this year. If they can improve those two spots (sorry guys...might be time to go), then the pen actually is pretty solid.
The challenge is that Houck isn’t available most days, and three of the decent guys are lefties (although Diekman has been pretty mediocre). So you are likely going to see at least 2 of the righties per game and none of them are terribly good.
Things also look much more bleak if you use FIP…
Strahm 1.78
Davis 3.75
Diekman 5.03
Schreiber 2.43
Sawamura 3.32
houck 3.59 (total)
Valdez 3.71
Danish 3.84
Robles 5.20
Brasier 5.33
I think you also have to to put these #s into context. A 3.96 bullpen era sounds good, but it’s better than only Toronto, LA, Seattle, and the Royals. By xFiP, the pen is better than only Oakland and KC. By WAR, only better than Minnesota and KC.
Things also look much more bleak if you use FIP…
Strahm 1.78
Davis 3.75
Diekman 5.03
Schreiber 2.43
Sawamura 3.32
houck 3.59 (total)
Valdez 3.71
Danish 3.84
Robles 5.20
Brasier 5.33
I think you also have to to put these #s into context. A 3.96 bullpen era sounds good, but it’s better than only Toronto, LA, Seattle, and the Royals. By xFiP, the pen is better than only Oakland and KC. By WAR, only better than Minnesota and KC.
Davis 4.2 walks per 9
Diekman 6.5 walks per 9
Barnes 6.4 walks per 9
My pet peeve. You can't come out of the pen and add baserunners. These three are the opposite of firemen.
Interestingly, Brasier is averaging less than 2 bb per 9; he's just getting hammered.
You can get away with walks if you get outs. The problem is walking guys and then allowing them to come around to score.
The bullpen ERA is being dragged under by Brasier and Barnes, who have allowed a combined 26 earned runs in 34.1 innings pitched. If they were allowing their normal career ERAs (4.20 Barnes, 3.66 Brasier), that would mean Barnes would have allowed 8 runs instead of 15, and Brasier would have allowed 7 instead of 11. That means their bullpen overall would have allowed 11 fewer earned runs, and their bullpen ERA would be 3.47, which would have them ranked #9 in all of MLB.
I know if you removed everyone's worst pitchers their team ERA would look better too, but the point is that Barnes and Brasier (Barnes especially) have been HORRIFIC, and those two alone are KILLING the team bullpen ERA.
Oh, I don’t disagree- it’s made worse by the fact that those two guys, and Diekman, have pitched a lot. The team is so weak at RH relief that they keep bringing Brasier and Barnes into big spots. Using Houck as a more conventional reliever would help. But it’s not like he’s been that great either.
Sure, if you can always bring them out to start a clean inning. But sometimes you're going to need guys you can go to when there's already two runners on, and then you don't want your fireman to be prone to walking a guy or two before getting the outs.
Can someone explain the Houck strategy to me?
Why is he being used in an early 2022 Whitlockian way - several days rest between longer inning blocks of work.
Why is he being used in an early 2022 Whitlockian way - several days rest between longer inning blocks of work.
My only guess is that, like Whitlock at the start of this year, they want to keep him semi-stretched out so he can be moved to the rotation if necessary.
The only other possible explanation is that they used Whitlock that way last year out of necessity (couldn't send him down, didn't want to endanger his TJ recovery with more frequent use) and fell in love with the notion of having a guy who could theoretically close out the final 2-3 innings of a game and save the rest of the pen once a week. Kinda what having an ace capable of throwing a complete game was 15-20 years ago.