Bucs: TB12 in TB20 - How Far Do They Go?

[CoffeeNerdness]

15.7 y/r would have put him 13th in the NFL last year. That's a better number than Godwin, Julio, Cooper, and Hill all put up. He's also been over 17 y/r the last two seasons. Last year he was sixth in the NFL. His career best receiving percentage is 62.3%, which would have tied him for 137th in 2019. His last two seasons he's had career best yards/game with 95.3 and 89. The guy absolutely flourished under Arians system with a great deep ball QB. "Hey Mike, good news! We're completely changing our system to minimize your strengths."

 

[Mooch]

On top of which, a mediocre at best offensive line gets starts to look better with a QB that doesn't hold onto the ball 4-5 seconds on each drop

Yeah, that offensive line can't run block either. They aren't good by any objective measure, particularly at Tackle.

 

[RedOctober3829]

On top of which, a mediocre at best offensive line gets starts to look better with a QB that doesn't hold onto the ball 4-5 seconds on each drop

And a defense looks even better when the QB doesn't throw 7 pick 6's

 

[bakahump]

Brady will be great at not doing that (pick 6s) for the 7 games he is upright and healthy.

I hope TBay dedicates alot of Draft Capitol into the Line. Like Becton at 14. Dotson as a FA doesnt help.

 

[Mugsy’s Walk-Off Bunt]

I suspect Brady's deep throw stats will look better after a season with top notch weapons.

 

[InstaFace]

We've been going into this argument for a decade. Tom Brady has great touch on his deep throws, and plenty of arm to get it deep with velocity. He's also made plenty of incredible mid-range throws that also had a lot of field width and as a result he had to drop them into a bucket with no margin of error. We've seen old QBs who don't have the arm strength anymore, and that was absolutely not him, not last year and not in 2018. If Arians wants to emphasize more deep throws, both for quick-strike capability and to minimize coverages that assume no deep-ball intentions (e.g. robber), I'm sure Brady will welcome that. We all know Brady's #1 elite skill is decision-making: doing the right thing, and doing it fast and decisively. He can't buy time scrambling like Rodgers or Wilson, but he also avoids pressure in the pocket like houdini and thereby keeps more of his options open than with a sprint to the sideline. But that means if he's got the protection to wait out a route, he's also got clear sight lines to any deep throw, great recognition of whether he has the coverage he wants, and no hesitation about putting it up. Basically, I'm sure there's still a cleaning crew working to mop up all of Bruce Arians' splooge from when he heard the news.

That said, we all know the Patriots' signal calls are in an Erhardt-Perkins scheme, and PF-Ref says that last year the offensive scheme in TB was Air Coryell. I don't know how that differs, but that might be more of an adjustment than the coaches' play calling would be.

 

[Mueller's Twin Grannies]

When, exactly, is this deal supposed to be announced officially? Right after he officially becomes a free agent or they still crossing a few ts and dotting a few... lowercase js?

 

[Harry Hooper]

When, exactly, is this deal supposed to be announced officially? Right after he officially becomes a free agent or they still crossing a few ts and dotting a few... lowercase js?

Maybe Yee just realized the 3rd year of the Bucs' offer was voidable?

I believe there's a 4 PM press conference today.

 

[djbayko]

When, exactly, is this deal supposed to be announced officially? Right after he officially becomes a free agent or they still crossing a few ts and dotting a few... lowercase js?

They're trying to finalize the AB contract so they can announce together

 

[Hendu for Kutch]

When, exactly, is this deal supposed to be announced officially? Right after he officially becomes a free agent or they still crossing a few ts and dotting a few... lowercase js?

They're signing Brady, not Max Scherzer.

Spoiler

 

[tims4wins]

View: https://twitter.com/JimTrotter_NFL/status/1240331590875537408

 

[Mueller's Twin Grannies]

They're signing Brady, not Max Scherzer.

Spoiler

Thank you, I'm glad someone got that.

 

[DourDoerr]

Another factor in favor of potentially better production deep is simply the weather change. Getting the chance to unleash deep in 70 degree temps (with a warm and loose arm) rather than in the teeth of chilly Foxboro can only help too. Ray Jay stadium isn't a dome, but it's the next best thing. If you're acclimated and hydrated (and c'mon, if TB's anything, he's hydrated), it's a great place for an older body.

 

[Marciano490]

View: https://twitter.com/JimTrotter_NFL/status/1240331590875537408

I suck at geography - is Tampa closer to NY than MA?

 

[snowmanny]

I’m pretty sure it was TB or LA

 

[Bowhemian]

I suck at geography - is Tampa closer to NY than MA?

I had the exact same thought, but snowmanny clears things up a bit.

 

[DJnVa]

View: https://twitter.com/JimTrotter_NFL/status/1240331590875537408

Well, I'm happy he'll finally work with a coach that can bring out his best.

 

[Mystic Merlin]

Well, I'm happy he'll finally work with a coach that can bring out his best.

Trotter trotting (ha!) out approved messaging from Camp TB12.

 

[RedOctober3829]

View: https://twitter.com/adamschefter/status/1240630574043271170?s=21

 

[Auger34]

As one of the few, maybe the only, person who has rooted for the Bucs and Patriots his entire life (I live in Tampa but my extended family is all in New England) I think I'm uniquely qualified to talk about this...

Some thoughts:
-This is very likely a moot point since most reporting is saying that the Bucs this year will give Brady the keys to the car but if the playbook doesn't change Brady will either get killed or kill Arians himself. The offense last year was all 5 to 7 step drops with long developing routes. There were multiple play designs with no checkdown or safety outlet.

-This type of offense would be fine if the Bucs had a very good offensive line. They don't. It's below average at best. Ryan Jensen (the Center) and Ali Marpet (LG) are both good to very good players. After those two, it falls off very quickly. Alex Cappa (RG) was average last year. He's young and new to the position so there's hope that he can improve. The tackles suck. Donovan Smith (LT) is overpaid and vastly overrated by the team and local media. He's mediocre at best and has a really bad tendency to get absolutely destroyed at the worst possible times. Demar Dotson (RT) had a time where he was a good player but he's old now and his body has betrayed him. Currently, he's a swing tackle at best.
I think the Patriots OL last year is very comparable to what the Bucs are putting out there currently.

-As we've all seen TB loves to have his RB's involved in the passing game. Tampa's running backs are likely the worst in the NFL at pass catching and pass blocking. The situation was so bad that the staff treated Dare Ogunbowale like he was James White and had him on the field in almost all passing situations. I'm guessing most of you don't know who Dare Ogunbowale is but, spoiler alert, he's not James White. In fact, he's fucking awful.
In general, the running game is just bad. Ronald Jones improved a ton last year and showed flashes but was still a way away from being a good NFL starter. The line can't run block at all.

-The pass catching group is incredibly talented although there are some questions about fit with how TB12 normally likes to play. Chris Godwin and Mike Evans are both studs. However, neither of them have elite short area quickness. They, especially Evans, are better with 50/50 type balls and have incredible catch radiuses. I'm sure they will both adjust and figure it out because there's too much talent there not to. I would also expect Tampa to sign a wide-out in the Julian Edelman/Adam Humphries who can create separation on quick 3 step drops.
OJ Howard has all of the talent in the world but was really, really bad last year. He was directly responsible for at least 3 INTs last year. And I don't mean the type of play where one tries to make a miraculous catch on a poorly thrown ball and ends up tipping it to a defender. I mean the type of play where the ball is perfectly thrown and it just bounces off the receivers hands right to a waiting defender. It will be very important for Brady and Arians to build his confidence up this off season because he's the perfect weapon for what Brady likes to do. Brady will immediately love Cam Brate (if he's still on the team). Brate has great hands, always seems to be open and is just a very dependable outlet for the QB.

All in all, I'm really bummed that Brady left New England. I wanted him to retire a Patriot and make 1 or 2 more runs at Super Bowls with Belichick. However, if he had to leave, I'm glad that he came to Tampa. He can really revitalize interest in this team both locally and nationally.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Adam Schefter

@AdamSchefter

Since word surfaced that Tom Brady is expected to land in Tampa, an unexpected high number of players have reached out to the Buccaneers to let them know they want to join the former Patriots’ QB there, per league sources.

 

[brandonchristensen]

Adam Schefter
@AdamSchefter

Since word surfaced that Tom Brady is expected to land in Tampa, an unexpected high number of players have reached out to the Buccaneers to let them know they want to join the former Patriots’ QB there, per league sources.

That's wild, and not unexpected.

 

[Van Everyman]

Yeah, I suspect that there will be no shortage of pass-catching RBs, OL and receivers who offer themselves at a discount to play with Brady in TB. We've been talking about JE11 but were I Belichick, I would consider moving a guy like James White to TB, as I think he may be more valuable to them at this point than the Patriots and could fetch more than a 34 y/o receiver.

Can't remember whether it was this thread or another, but if the "Tom wanted to come back to the Pats but they didn't want him" stories we're seeing are true, it seems it came down to the fact that TB was and NE was that TB was willing to guarantee the money for a second season at $50M and the Pats weren't.

 

[BaseballJones]

Yeah, I suspect that there will be no shortage of pass-catching RBs, OL and receivers who offer themselves at a discount to play with Brady in TB. We've been talking about JE11 but were I Belichick, I would consider moving a guy like James White to TB, as I think he may be more valuable to them at this point than the Patriots and could fetch more than a 34 y/o receiver.

Can't remember whether it was this thread or another, but if the "Tom wanted to come back to the Pats but they didn't want him" stories we're seeing are true, it seems it came down to the fact that TB was and NE was that TB was willing to guarantee the money for a second season at $50M and the Pats weren't.

Hmmm. The stories I saw were that the Pats wanted Brady back but Brady wanted to leave.

 

[Van Everyman]

Yeah, I think it's still being sorted out -- Kraft is saying that Brady was done with NE, but there is reporting coming out now that Brady's preference was to come back to NE and wanted an assurance that he would play until was 45. From the below piece, it sounds like the Pats were only willing to guarantee the first year:

It starts, of course, at quarterback, so let’s revisit that for a moment. Brady and the Patriots were never really on the same page financially over the past year, according to sources. Last summer, the Pats offered Brady a two-year contract worth $53 million, and Brady obviously declined in favor of the $8 million raise (for $23 million total in 2019) and the freedom to hit free agency in 2020.

The structure of that two-year offer hasn’t been disclosed. It’s been known Brady wanted guaranteed money in the second year for job security assurances. From the Patriots’ side, even without fully guaranteed money in the contract language, they weren’t ever considering the possibility of actually cutting Brady, but they wanted organizational protection in the same sense Brady coveted job security.

This offseason, the Patriots never offered Brady a contract. Instead, having gone through the previous round of negotiations in good faith over the summer, the Pats wanted to know what type of contract Brady wanted this time around. Brady, in turn, never brought his financial demands to the table before agreeing to join the Buccaneers.

https://theathletic.com/1686172/2020/03/18/patriots-free-agency-bill-belichick/?source=shared-article

 

[Marty’s Beret]

Adam Schefter
@AdamSchefter

Since word surfaced that Tom Brady is expected to land in Tampa, an unexpected high number of players have reached out to the Buccaneers to let them know they want to join the former Patriots’ QB there, per league sources.

Considering how many players probably reach out Tampa Bay in a typical offseason, the "unexpected high number" could literally mean just a player or two. Of course, if I were an NFL free agent (particularly on the offensive side of the ball), I'd be all over joining the hot new NFL team now too.

 

[Mystic Merlin]

Considering how many players probably reach out Tampa Bay in a typical offseason, the "unexpected high number" could literally mean just a player or two. Of course, if I were an NFL free agent (particularly on the offensive side of the ball), I'd be all over joining the hot new NFL team now too.

Also, they’ll want to get paid, and TB has shelled out a ton of cap dollars in the past few days.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Also, they’ll want to get paid, and TB has shelled out a ton of cap dollars in the past few days.

Melvin Gordon with that team would be really, really productive.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Melvin Gordon with that team would be really, really productive.

Still can't believe he turned down the Chargers' offer last year. Now has over 1,000 carries / 1,300 touches of wear and tear and is about to turn 27. He won't get anywhere near what he could have gotten last offseason. Only 1 season above 4 YPC. Agree that TB may be a good fit for him. TB12 definitely needs a better receiving option at RB than what he currently has down there.

 

[streeter88]

OK. So it's the middle of the night here in Australia and I can't sleep because things are at a tipping point here both virally and economically, and I was intrigued by a couple of really interesting posts by tbb345 and E5 Yaz in the TB to TB thread (posts 120 and 121). So I thought I would create a poll on it (Mods feel free to delete if not worthy).

FWIW, I wish Brady well and think the Bucs will make the playoffs, and if they were by some miracle to go to the Super Bowl, I hope the Pats are waiting there to crush his dreams.

 

[tims4wins]

I'll say ~9 wins and not a playoff team.

The longer CV-19 is present, the less time he has to work with new teammates. I am skeptical.

 

[Harry Hooper]

10 wins, does that make the expanded playoffs?

 

[BigSoxFan]

For context, TB's schedule:

Home
Falcons
Panthers
Saints
Packers
Vikings
Chiefs
Chargers
Rams

Away
Falcons
Panthers
Saints
Bears
Broncos
Lions
Giants
Raiders

Pretty tough schedule. I'll say 9-7 and no playoffs.

 

[Mugsy's Jock]

Yeah, I suspect that there will be no shortage of pass-catching RBs, OL and receivers who offer themselves at a discount to play with Brady in TB. We've been talking about JE11 but were I Belichick, I would consider moving a guy like James White to TB, as I think he may be more valuable to them at this point than the Patriots and could fetch more than a 34 y/o receiver.

You're not wrong, although if the Pats hope to develop Stid the Kid, having a security blanket/capable blocker like White alongside him in the backfield would really help them evaluate what he's got. And while I was always skeptical the Pats were a SB team in 2020-21, even with Brady, I'm not ready to give up hope on seeing if JS4 sneaking them into the playoffs. That could be really fun.

 

[RedOctober3829]

11-5, Wild Card, and they get to the NFC title game. Don't bet against TB12.

 

[Spelunker]

Well, the "guys catching TDs from Brady" game is going to get really interesting now.

 

[DJnVa]

10 wins, does that make the expanded playoffs?

Playoffs remain same next season. It's the year after that things change.

 

[SMU_Sox]

They are as good as any NFC team to pick to make the SB so I voted he will win it. I think at the least they will make the playoffs. If they address the OTs and upgrade receiving RB sky is the limit.

 

[DeadlySplitter]

Playoffs remain same next season. It's the year after that things change.

I thought the new playoff structure was immediate?

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

It is. 17 game schedule is next year

 

[DJnVa]

It is. 17 game schedule is next year

So it is. Well then.

 

[Seels]

Controversial thought but I've long held that the NFC South is second maybe only to the AFC South in how terrible it is. Brady could make the 2016 Browns into a playoff team in that awful division.

The Bucs will definitely make the playoffs short of Brady falling off completely. I think he makes them instant serious contenders.

I'll say 11 win team with a divisional or conference loss.

 

[streeter88]

Wow. Early returns are that 25% of us think that Brady will at age 43 lead the Bucs to the NFCCG or better.

Quoting from Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tampa_Bay_Buccaneers:
They won Super Bowl XXXVII at the end of the 2002 season, but have not yet returned to the Super Bowl. As of the end of 2019 NFL season, the Buccaneers have played 43 seasons and compiled an overall record of 273–433–1 (.387), with a regular-season record of 267–424–1 (.387) and a playoff record of 6–9 (.400)[5][6]. The Buccaneers have the dubious honor of having the worst win-loss percentage of not only the 32 NFL teams, but all four major American sports leagues.

If Brady does succeed in bringing the Bucs to the very top over the next two years, does it qualify as the best turnaround ever?

And the corollary is: do the Bucs outperform the Pats over the next 2 years?

 

[NortheasternPJ]

I'll say ~9 wins and not a playoff team.

The longer CV-19 is present, the less time he has to work with new teammates. I am skeptical.

You think he was going to go to OTA's?

 

[heavyde050]

Wow. Early returns are that 25% of us think that Brady will at age 43 lead the Bucs to the NFCCG or better.

Quoting from Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tampa_Bay_Buccaneers:
They won Super Bowl XXXVII at the end of the 2002 season, but have not yet returned to the Super Bowl. As of the end of 2019 NFL season, the Buccaneers have played 43 seasons and compiled an overall record of 273–433–1 (.387), with a regular-season record of 267–424–1 (.387) and a playoff record of 6–9 (.400)[5][6]. The Buccaneers have the dubious honor of having the worst win-loss percentage of not only the 32 NFL teams, but all four major American sports leagues.

If Brady does succeed in bringing the Bucs to the very top over the next two years, does it qualify as the best turnaround ever?

And the corollary is: do the Bucs outperform the Pats over the next 2 years?

Interesting question at the end. I would probably think TB12 and Bucs win more than the Pats next year, with BB and the Pats catching and passing them by 2021 or 2022 (Brady will probably be gone).

 

[Seels]

And the corollary is: do the Bucs outperform the Pats over the next 2 years?

Pats look like a 6-7 win team as is.

 

[FL4WL3SS]

11-5, Wild Card, and they get to the NFC title game. Don't bet against TB12.

I know it's petty, but I'll be rooting against him all the way. I'm excited to see what it's like rooting against pretty boy.

"Forever a Patriot" my ass.

Of course once he retires, I'll continue loving him.

 

[Dr. Winston O'Boogie]

Pats look like a 6-7 win team as is.

Stidham could lead this team to 9-7 easily. No chance they finish under .500.

 

[tims4wins]

You think he was going to go to OTA's?

I dunno, that's part of why it is confusing why he left

 

[heavyde050]

Stidham could lead this team to 9-7 easily. No chance they finish under .500.

There is definitely a chance they finish under .500 (just for next season). The schedule looks super tough (on paper) and they lost their starting QB, two of their leading LBs and rushers, and a bunch of other depth guys. They also don't have a second round pick in the upcoming draft.
I trust BB to address all this before the start of the season, but as of today, there is definitely a chance the past win less than 8 games.