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Bruins extend Brandon Carlo - 6-years $4.1 mil AAV
- Thread starter cshea
- Start date
Depending on the money, great news. Just hope he can stay healthy. Now get him a good partner to play with as the 2nd pairing.
How’s a guy gonna opine that it’s a good move without seeing the money and duration for a guy who’s possibly one moderate head hit from Ondrej Kase?
Same thing could have been said about Patrice Bergeron all these years. Hard to really account for it one way or another.
This! I was one of those people/morons who thought they should trade Bergeron many moons ago because he kept getting concussed, but he clearly figured out something about positioning himself on the ice to help prevent those from happening as much.
I am for this deal if the money is between $4-5M because I think he can learn how to be better positioned to avoid those hits. Hopefully Bergeron or someone else can teach him the positioning needed to avoid these better in the future. Seems like a nice kid and he's definitely good with that reach on the PK.
It's 6-years at $4.1 million AAV
View: https://twitter.com/NHLBruins/status/1415363298896322560?s=20
View: https://twitter.com/NHLBruins/status/1415363298896322560?s=20
That's an excellent deal. Maybe a year more than I'd like, but to get that AAV, I'm sold.
Sweeney is very good at re-signing and extending his own players. Probably his biggest strength as a GM. This is the polar opposite of Chiarelli who seemed to overpay and give out NTC's and NMC's like candy, especially to his guys on the 2011 team.
I think it also speaks to the culture of the team and the environment. Guys seem to genuinely like playing for them. That definitely wasn’t always the case. The new training facility helps greatly.
Carlo is where offense goes to die. On both ends. I don't really love him as a top 4 guy, but that contract isn't too onerous.
Patrice Bergeron is a first ballot hall of famer and Brandon Carlo is a below average NHL defenseman. There's no upside to signing someone like that to a 6 year deal at good money.
I don't like that deal at all for 6 years. $4.1m number is fine for the next couple of years, and if he can eventually stay healthy all the better, but this isn't great value IMO.
I don't know if it means anything, but I find it somewhat interesting that they are getting the RFA work done early. They usually wait until after free agency to start on the pricier RFA's.
Seems to me like they want to know what's going to be available for cap space after they get their core players locked up. Doing it before free agency begins will allow them to be in on guys from the start.
I don't think its fair to say Carlo is a below average defenseman at all. He's one of the top 10 D in the league at preventing opponents from chances and scoring. He is top 25 in the league in GF% the last 3 seasons and he's allowed the fewest xG of anyone above him on that list with the exception of Gryz who plays sheltered minutes. He erases offense. the problem is he sells out for D and generates almost nothing offensively. That's why you get to sign him for $4.1m. If he generated offense his contract would be double that.
For reference, he has the 68th biggest cap hit for defensemen in the NHL. So basically market value for a second pairing FA. The hit ties him with Dumoulin, Manson, and D. Toews. Difficult to make a 1:1 comparison given RFA and UFA years are mixed up but seems like a market level deal.
I just like him more as a 3rd pair guy than on the 2nd pair. I'd trade the defensive prowess for more offense. When he's out there it's like 4 on 5 in the offensive end which I think hurts the top 2 lines a bit.
Later in the season, Cassidy leaned on Carlo to get more involved in the offense. He seemed to be doing just that until he got injured.
He's also only 24.
To think he's topped out in terms of expected performance is misguided. Defensemen take longer to develop. That he's already entering his 5th season at only 24 and he's consistently gotten better speaks well to where we can expect him to go, and that by the end of this contract he'll only be.....30.
To think he's topped out in terms of expected performance is misguided. Defensemen take longer to develop. That he's already entering his 5th season at only 24 and he's consistently gotten better speaks well to where we can expect him to go, and that by the end of this contract he'll only be.....30.
All season long, many people criticized the bottom 9 forwards for not being able to score at even strength. A big part of that is that the forwards are really hamstrung by players like Carlo. I think this season it was exacerbated by having numerous other offensive black holes getting minutes (Lauzon, Zboril, Miller, Tinordi, Clifton). Ideally you would have one or two of these players and be able to deploy them to maximize their strengths and hide their weaknesses, but you can't do that when 4 of your 6 defensemen are like that.
I think what he does is valuable, and I probably underrate it some, but he's just so bad offensively. You can get a slightly worse Brandon Carlo for closer to league minimum, and put that money towards elite players.
I think what he does is valuable, and I probably underrate it some, but he's just so bad offensively. You can get a slightly worse Brandon Carlo for closer to league minimum, and put that money towards elite players.
Connor Clifton? In terms of value I guess - in terms of play style, Clifton is chaotic neutral to put it lightly
edit: I might be crazily undervaluing Carlo after reading the reactions of others, but I can't get all that excited over this level of commitment to a player I find to be both limited in upside, and that happens to play in a league where players like Tom Wilson can knock them out for months on end with regularity and impunity.
edit: I might be crazily undervaluing Carlo after reading the reactions of others, but I can't get all that excited over this level of commitment to a player I find to be both limited in upside, and that happens to play in a league where players like Tom Wilson can knock them out for months on end with regularity and impunity.
I am shocked by the people who are so down on Carlo...find me 120 better defensemen who are better than him and now try to do it for less than 4.1 a year.
This is a solid deal for a strong player who should still get better.
This is a solid deal for a strong player who should still get better.
Yeah, I would have expected the exact opposite having watched him for a while. He is pure chaos on the ice, but for whatever reason, neither team generates offense when he is playing. It's shocking, but pretty consistent over his 3 seasons.
That's a good question. I'd suspect free agents like Hjalmarsson and Adam Larsson would be cheaper than Carlo, although maybe I'm drastically misreading the FA market. Ryan Lindgren who they traded away a couple years ago is a somewhat comparable player who just signed for $3x3 though.
I don't really think that matters for this discussion. They already have one shutdown RHD in McAvoy. They need help on both sides
Larsson is an interesting comp. He's smaller than Carlo but plays a more nasty game. But on offense he's a black hole as well and is best suited with someone who can move the puck well. Carlo is probably in the same boat and would likely improve his game with say Gryz as his partner.
Over the last 2 seasons, among the 131 defensemen with 1500 minutes of 5x5 time Carlo ranks 127th in xGF/60 at 1.93. Among that same group, he ranks 21st in xGA/60. One of his closest comparable's, by xG, over the past 2 years is....Zdeno Chara who is 120th in xGF/60 and 20th in xGA/60.
By the numbers, Hjarmarsson, Larsson and Lindgren are all SIGNIFICANTLY worse than Carlo on D. I expect Larsson to be around the same price for less term and while Hjalmarsson will likely be cheaper, hes also 34 and was terrible last year. Lindgren just signed a 3X9 deal but it didn't buy any of his UFA years. He will be 1 year from UFA when the cap goes up and will likely cash in for a number significantly higher. He's also a lesser player. A good comp is Esa Lindell. He puts up a bit more offense but has similar responsibilities to Carlo, he's just much much worse at it. He signed for 6 X $5.8 per year with NMC for all 4 years of UFA they bought.
They usually try to pair a mobile dude with Carlo. It doesn't really help. Tiny sample size (8 games; 124 minutes) but he sucked the life out of Mike Reilly. Reilly/Carlo had a 1.84 xGF/60 and a 48% xGF%. Reilly away from Carlo had 3.04 xGF/60 and a 64% xGF%.
Over the past 2 years, Carlo has played 275 minutes with Grzelyck. Small sample again, but their xG numbers are 1.99-1.92 together, 50.91%. Grzelyck away from Carlo posted 2.42 xGF and 1.67 xGA. Carlo away from Grz was 1.91-2.03.
Carlo just kind of is what he is, a really good defensive defenseman. For me, I'd trade some of the defense for more offense. I think a player with Carlo's skill set is best served as a 3rd pairing whose minutes you adjust up and down based on game situation. It doesn't make this a bad contract or signing, I kind of land on meh.
And at that AAV the cap should go up each year so that price should look better as the years go by provided good health.
Great deal. You don't make change for the sake of making change. He's a solid top 4 with room to grow.
This gives the B's some flexibility to get creative in FA. Big fan of this deal. Should be a tradeable contract down the road if needed.
This gives the B's some flexibility to get creative in FA. Big fan of this deal. Should be a tradeable contract down the road if needed.
No, it couldn’t be.
Bergeron’s first two reported professional concussions were more than a year apart. His third was 3.5 years later. His fourth was two years after that. Four reported concussions in 6.5 years, reasonably spread out over that time.
He wasn’t given a six year extension a month after being knocked out of the playoffs with his career second, third, and fourth concussions all occurring in the previous year and a half, the last of which was not a bad hit so much as possibly a post concussion syndrome re-injury.
Plus, he’s not Brandon fucking Carlo.
The two situations really aren’t analogous beyond hockey, Bruins, concussions.
Lump me in with my furry cousin to the north, PSK. He was an RFA. No real reason to rush a deal of this length, IMHO.
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If you wait and he gets closer to UFA he’s getting more than $4.1M absent a significant change in circumstance. They’re taking on the risk of term assuming he’s still improving to get a lower AAV. Whether it’s a good decision is debatable (I believe it is but reasonable opinions can differ) but there are plenty of valid reasons to sign him to term now versus later.