Bruins drafting under Sweeney

lexrageorge

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Jul 31, 2007
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The bad at drafting perception is a hill I will have to die on.
I’m not gonna get into the Bruins draft history, but these picks are all much more likely to be hits than misses no matter who is making them.
Just thought I would revisit the topic in a separate thread. I took a look at the Sweeney/Neely draft picks in the 1st and 2nd round to assess whether the Bruins are good, bad, or just as expected given their draft position. I also added low round picks that did impact NHL rosters.

Good to great picks:
Carlo (37)
McAvoy (14)
Swayman (111)

Expected value given the position:
DeBrusk (14)
Lauzon (52)
Frederic (29)
Lindgren (49)
Vaakanainen (18) [Borderline bust]
Studnicka (53) [Could go up or down yet]
Vladar (75) [Not really sure how to grade goalies]

Busts:
Zboril (13) [Still could improve, but that knee injury was serious]
Senyshyn (15)
Forsbacka-Karlsson (45)

TBD:
Axel Andersson (57)
John Beecher (30)
Mason Lohrei (58) [Could become a good pick]
Fabian Lysell (21) [Ditto]

Part of the issue is that once you remove Sweeney's first year, when he had 3 1st round picks, the highest picks he had to work with were 14 (McAvoy) and 18 (Vaak). The picks traded for Lindholm will be lower than either. If Lohrei and Lysell are part of the next good Bruins run, then Sweeney's draft history will look quite strong.
 
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RG33

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Nov 28, 2005
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This is a look at NHL drafts from 2000-2009 — and I’m not familiar with the author — but it seems pretty straightforward (and interesting, to me).

C3EBD049-C189-424D-BA4D-FF6E26BB8CC5.png

The author’s takeaway was that each draft produced roughly 60 NHL players (defined as played more than NHL 99 games in their career) with roughly 40 being NHL players that played over 300 NHL games. Obviously, base that on 30 teams (considering this is 2000-2009) and it is roughly each draft should yield you two legit NHL players that end up playing 300+ NHL games as a simplistic benchmark (variables would be # of picks in each draft etc.).

He then breaks it down by rounds, which unsurprisingly shows a significant drop-off after the 1st round (and fairly close odds between 3rd/4th and 5th/6th/7th, respectively):

BC530326-C3FA-4563-880F-47E57E4955AF.png

And then breaks it down by draft slot with similarly unsurprising results:

B2BB33FB-7B1A-4240-A552-299F287E4316.png

Of course, this is just looking at the # of games played — did the team actually draft someone that ended up contributing — and doesn’t delve into the quality of the contributions, but I thought it was interesting.

With this background/context, it feels like Sweeney has been where we think he has been — kind of right in the middle with some hits, but also with some pretty big misses.

https://dobberprospects.com/2020/05/16/nhl-draft-pick-probabilities/
 

Toe Nash

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Jul 28, 2005
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I know this has been covered a lot so let's just get it out of the way:
A lot of the perception is just fallout from the 2015 draft, and really just the Senyshyn pick. Zboril was about where he was expected to go and DeBrusk was a slight reach but has turned out fine. They should have been better prepared and they should have either traded up or traded down after assembling the three picks in a row. Or, gone with one of the next guys on the central scouting board (Barzal) instead of reaching for Senyshyn.

To Sweeney's credit they have done better in subsequent years but given the makeup of the team they really needed to hit in 2015. I think what gets people is that if they had just done the "dumb" thing and pick the next guy on the big list that everyone has access to they would have been in great shape in that draft and that's not always the case at pick 15. Or, there was maybe someone else who would give you something nice in return for that #15 and you could still pick up Senyshyn later if you loved him for whatever reason. In some cases there is mystery to drafting and we don't have the same info as front offices but this was a situation that everyone who's played fantasy sports or Madden Franchise mode has been in.

At a macro level they have done fine. But the details matter a lot here I think. That said, it was 7 years ago so it doesn't mean much going forward if the question is "should we keep or trade those future picks?"
 

catomatic

thinks gen turgidson is super mean!!!
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Jul 16, 2005
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Am I crazy or wasn’t there a narrative circulating that Don had actually tried to package some or all of his picks to Carolina to nab Hanifin?

I’m speaking of course of the three 1sts.
 

Eddie Jurak

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Dec 12, 2002
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McAvoy was a grand slam - not often you can draft a franchise player at 14. Swayman looks like a home run.