Bruins 5v6 End of Game - How do they look?

[BoSoxFink]

 
What bad habits? Going 4-1-2 over the last 7 games with a makeshift lineup?
 
I dare say people might be getting slightly spoiled by their last month+ of play. If they looked lazy or disinterested, then I'd be worried. 

did you watch the whole game last night? There were plenty of times they looked disinterested and sloppy. Jack Edwards was saying it all night long. The one major play that comes to mind was when Marchand and Boychuck nearly destroyed eachother when skating around in their own end.

On top of that, the Bruins have blown 3rd period leads a couple of times recently and a few of those were when the goalie was pulled. This is worrisome because this was a big time problem for the team all of last year and eventually bit them in the ass in the Stanley cup finals. I absolutely hate seeing that creeping back into their games again.

I hope I'm wrong but there have been a few worrisome things of late. It could all mean nothing and this all could disappear when the playoffs start, but bad habits can carry over too.

 

[54thMA]

did you watch the whole game last night? There were plenty of times they looked disinterested and sloppy. Jack Edwards was saying it all night long. The one major play that comes to mind was when Marchand and Boychuck nearly destroyed eachother when skating around in their own end.

On top of that, the Bruins have blown 3rd period leads a couple of times recently and a few of those were when the goalie was pulled. This is worrisome because this was a big time problem for the team all of last year and eventually bit them in the ass in the Stanley cup finals. I absolutely hate seeing that creeping back into their games again.

I hope I'm wrong but there have been a few worrisome things of late. It could all mean nothing and this all could disappear when the playoffs start, but bad habits can carry over too.

 
All valid points.
 
As a season ticket holder, this is one of the best Bruins teams I've ever seen, been a fan since 1969.
 
They have a great shot at winning another cup, so stop fucking around.
 

 

[TheRealness]

did you watch the whole game last night? There were plenty of times they looked disinterested and sloppy. Jack Edwards was saying it all night long. The one major play that comes to mind was when Marchand and Boychuck nearly destroyed eachother when skating around in their own end.

On top of that, the Bruins have blown 3rd period leads a couple of times recently and a few of those were when the goalie was pulled. This is worrisome because this was a big time problem for the team all of last year and eventually bit them in the ass in the Stanley cup finals. I absolutely hate seeing that creeping back into their games again.

I hope I'm wrong but there have been a few worrisome things of late. It could all mean nothing and this all could disappear when the playoffs start, but bad habits can carry over too.

 
Yeah, no. Have you been watching the Blues at all? Play like that would worry me. Tying a team and out-playing them without two of your top 6 forwards, missing your 3rd line LW the entire third, while skating Potter and then Krug on the 4th line all because you gave up a last minute goal that was the result of goalie interference is a stupid reason to worry. 

 

[TFP]

 
All valid points.
 
As a season ticket holder, this is one of the best Bruins teams I've ever seen, been a fan since 1969.
 
They have a great shot at winning another cup, so stop fucking around.
 

They're "fucking around"? People realize that teams do actually lose games once in a while, right?
 
One thing on giving up the last minute leads, I'm curious how many times the Bruins have been down 6 on 5. Considering they lead the entire league in wins, I imagine they've faced that opportunity more than any other team as well. I'm trying to find rate stats on it (% of time they've given up the lead with the goalie pulled vs opportunities), and failing.
 
Edit: The Bruins lead the NHL in empty net goals with 14. They definitely don't suck at closing out leads.

 

[BoSoxFink]

I'm not going to keep going on about it and I for one still think they're the team to beat in the east, no doubt about it. Basically I just don't want any carry over from these last 5-6 games into the playoffs

 

[Red Right Ankle]

They have overall been good at 6 on 5s (league leaders in ENGs as TFP mentions and they killed off a 5 minute 6 on 5 in COL) and in the last minute of periods, but since the end of the streak, they have had some issues holding leads.  Some of this is likely due to fatigue and guys being placed in unusual roles due to trying to get key players rest, some of it is likely due to playing the 4th line more (love those guys and they are the best 4th line in the league, but they are still a fourth line), and some of it is effort and execution.  
 
They need to work on it, but it's not a sky is falling scenario and I don't think BSF really meant it that way. 

 

[Brand Name]

I was concerned about this as a blip, note of concern only, but having done some look ups about frequency this season, I'm not concerned at this point. There's only been three last minute goals scored against the Bruins this season to tie the score this season. Not counting last night, since it was obviously at 18:55. There's a 5th if you want to extend it to the last 2:30 of a game, but the 5th was a penalty shot made by Vernon Fiddler, which is rare to have called that late with a one goal game, and even rarer to be called when the playoffs start.
 
Back to the last minute stuff specifically, these were all pretty spread fairly spread out, and they're 2-0-1 in such scenarios. Note the players that have scored them, they're really skilled players, none of them are scrubs, though clearly Vinny isn't the same guy as he was years ago.
 
11/25/13: vs. PIT, Crosby at 19:59; Krug won this 34 seconds into OT.
2/26/14: @BUF, Moulson at 19:07; D'Agostini 22 seconds into the extra 5.
3/30/14: @PHI, Lecavalier at 19:35, Bruins SO win (Smith).

 

[McDrew]

14-3 is a great ratio for when other teams pull the goalie.  I know ENG's are captured in the initial stats, are goalie-pulled goals accounted for in a similar way? 

 

[The Napkin]

Yeah, when they were talking about why the Bruins were so good (+50 or whatever it was) in the 3rd period I wanted to shout through the tv that it was partly because they're normally winning and they've scored about 20 empty netters. Good to see I wasn't just making things up.

 

[Red Right Ankle]

I was concerned about this as a blip, note of concern only, but having done some look ups about frequency this season, I'm not concerned at this point. There's only been three last minute goals scored against the Bruins this season to tie the score this season. Not counting last night, since it was obviously at 18:55. There's a 5th if you want to extend it to the last 2:30 of a game, but the 5th was a penalty shot made by Vernon Fiddler, which is rare to have called that late with a one goal game, and even rarer to be called when the playoffs start.
 
Back to the last minute stuff specifically, these were all pretty spread fairly spread out, and they're 2-0-1 in such scenarios. Note the players that have scored them, they're really skilled players, none of them are scrubs, though clearly Vinny isn't the same guy as he was years ago.
 
11/25/13: vs. PIT, Crosby at 19:59; Krug won this 34 seconds into OT.
2/26/14: @BUF, Moulson at 19:07; D'Agostini 22 seconds into the extra 5.
3/30/14: @PHI, Lecavalier at 19:35, Bruins SO win (Smith).

Nice work.  Is this last minute of the game only?

 

[TFP]

That leads to another question from me. Does giving up a goal in the last minute of the 1st or 2nd period really matter? Why is that any different than in the 6th minute? Is there something different about the final minute than the other minutes?
 
The Bruins give up less goals/game than every other team in the NHL not named the Kings. Isn't that what really matters?

 

[Red Right Ankle]

The other thing that's missing, and is probably way too difficult to quantify for someone without a database of all the game logs, is how the Bruins perform vis a vis other teams in the last minute of periods, in the last minute (or few minutes) of games and in 6 on 5s.  Maybe the Bruins are the best in the league at this (and the 14:3 ratio suggests they might be), but that it's a "tallest jockey" kind of thing or that these events are simply memorable so we, as fans, get biased because of that.
 
To bring some more numbers in, the Bs are 6th in the league for Corsi % and 7th for Fenwick % when 5v5 Up by 1.  They are 3rd in the league in 5 on 5, Close for Corsi; 4th for Fenwick.  So overall, they are a good team with a lead and a great team when it's close which suggests that they are probably a good team when it's close and late. Extra Skater doesn't seem to have a "5v5, Up by 1, Late" filter, though, so we can't get granular enough to really answer our question and perhaps such a stat would not be predictive anyways.   

 

[TFP]

Split out from the Minnesota game thread.

 

[Red Right Ankle]

That leads to another question from me. Does giving up a goal in the last minute of the 1st or 2nd period really matter? Why is that any different than in the 6th minute? Is there something different about the final minute than the other minutes?
 
The Bruins give up less goals/game than every other team in the NHL not named the Kings. Isn't that what really matters?

Why is this minute different from all other minutes?
 
This one bugs me as well.  It definitely feels different when it happens and players and coaches do focus on it, but then again, there have been studies suggesting that goals are essentially random events which tends to cut against that focus.  Maybe it's the batting order of hockey: gets a lot of focus but really doesn't matter much one way or the other.  It would be a great study to do.

 

[Brand Name]

Nice work.  Is this last minute of the game only?

Thanks, and yeah, it's exactly that. Thankfully, SI has ENG numbers per team, which is important for my next idea. What would make this better? Well, what if I did it for all 30 teams? I'm going to, and then compute the ratio of ENe59 (empty net efficiency in 59th minute). Computed using ENG over 59th minute goals allowed (ENG/59mGA). Then I'll post this in this here tomorrow morning, Bruins vs. the rest of the NHL, to see if concerns are warranted, though my hypothesis is they aren't, given Boston's at a 4.67. Four teams alone don't have 4 empty net goals on the year (Washington, Florida, Calgary, Vancouver), for a fun starter.
 
As TFP mentioned, 14 for the Bs, but he didn't mention this leads the league, though that seems more a rate stat, not much good on its own, because the Bruins are a really fucking good team, and therefore get more opposing teams to pull their goalie. Thus, they naturally get more chances to get the ENGs. ENGs as a team stat is potentially a variation on the baseball problem with RBI, in that more baserunners/better team means more RBI, with a similar adage applicable to hockey. This is why this stat is relevant.
 
If you can think up a better acronym for this stat, please let me know, as it's a bit clunky.
 
EDIT: I'll do this year, but to weed out sample size noise, do you think I should run this test/ratio with more years of data? If so, how many? Go back to like 2009-2010, perhaps?

 

[Red Right Ankle]

14-3 is a great ratio for when other teams pull the goalie.  I know ENG's are captured in the initial stats, are goalie-pulled goals accounted for in a similar way? 

The NHL doesn't.  I found this article that has some useful general info though:
 
http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2013/05/29/pulling-goaltender-may-risky-move-but-bruins-and-other-hockey-teams-have-made-pay-off/u1dbL9XrfejggKHUnxpPUI/story.html
 

 
 
Indeed, mathematical studies indicate that the extra-man gambit works often enough to justify it. Andrew Thomas, who studied data from four NHL seasons during the past decade for an article in the Journal of Quantitative Analysis, found that 30 percent of the goals scored with the cage empty were tallied by the attacking side. And while the league doesn’t keep stats on empty-cage goals, the Elias Sports Bureau reports that 48 extra-attacker goals (with or without the goalie pulled) were scored in the final three minutes during this year’s regular season with another seven in the playoffs.

 

[kenneycb]

Why is this minute different from all other minutes?
 
This one bugs me as well.  It definitely feels different when it happens and players and coaches do focus on it, but then again, there have been studies suggesting that goals are essentially random events which tends to cut against that focus.  Maybe it's the batting order of hockey: gets a lot of focus but really doesn't matter much one way or the other.  It would be a great study to do.

I think it's just human nature.  As much as we all want to believe these guys are robots, they actually have emotions and are swayed by certain things that make them up their intensity levels, one of which is generally the end of a close game where they're losing or holding onto a lead.  It's certainly to a lesser degree than in, say, my men's league but there's a certain amount of urgency, not to mention a differing of play with more pinching by the D and selling out down low by the forwards, that essentially amount to a pretty sizable shift in actual gameplay.

 

[TFP]

I think it's just human nature.  As much as we all want to believe these guys are robots, they actually have emotions and are swayed by certain things that make them up their intensity levels, one of which is generally the end of a close game where they're losing or holding onto a lead.  It's certainly to a lesser degree than in, say, my men's league but there's a certain amount of urgency, not to mention a differing of play with more pinching by the D and selling out down low by the forwards, that essentially amount to a pretty sizable shift in actual gameplay.

 
I can totally understand that at the end of the games and final minutes, since it has a direct impact on whether you win/lose.
 
It's the end of the 1st and 2nd periods that I don't understand. Those shouldn't have an impact for better or worse, really.

 

[kenneycb]

I can't read but I feel there is some change in play or slight ass-clenching that goes on so you can go into break with the same score that could lead to more mistakes.  That's me just spitballing based off nothing though.

 

[Red Right Ankle]

Thanks, and yeah, it's exactly that. Thankfully, SI has ENG numbers per team, which is important for my next idea. What would make this better? Well, what if I did it for all 30 teams? I'm going to, and then compute the ratio of ENe59 (empty net efficiency in 59th minute). Computed using ENG over 59th minute goals allowed (ENG/59mGA). Then I'll post this in this here tomorrow morning, Bruins vs. the rest of the NHL, to see if concerns are warranted, though my hypothesis is they aren't, given Boston's at a 4.67. Four teams alone don't have 4 empty net goals on the year (Washington, Florida, Calgary, Vancouver), for a fun starter.
 
As TFP mentioned, 14 for the Bs, but he didn't mention this leads the league, though that seems more a rate stat, not much good on its own, because the Bruins are a really fucking good team, and therefore get more opposing teams to pull their goalie. Thus, they naturally get more chances to get the ENGs. ENGs as a team stat is potentially a variation on the baseball problem with RBI, in that more baserunners/better team means more RBI, with a similar adage applicable to hockey. This is why this stat is relevant.
 
If you can think up a better acronym for this stat, please let me know, as it's a bit clunky.

Late Empty Net Goals Ratio or LENGR?  Sounds like linger which is appropriate. 

 

[Red Right Ankle]

I can't read

 
The first step is admitting you have a problem.  The second is getting some scientists to figure out how the fuck you post on a message board when you're illiterate.

 

[kenneycb]

Dragon Speech Recognition.  You win Sports Hub advertising.

 

[Red Right Ankle]

But how are your posts relevant if you can't read other people's posts?
 
You have the shining, don't you?

 

[Myt1]

I can totally understand that at the end of the games and final minutes, since it has a direct impact on whether you win/lose.

Well, the goals scored earlier count toward that result too, don't they?

I'm with you generally: anyone who thinks any if this stems from being somehow disinterested or having bad mental habits is pretty much ignoring the fact that the Bruins aren't the only team on the ice. The other guys are trying to win, too. Sometimes shit happens, human nature's desire to be able to apply some internal failing causality notwithstanding. "Bad habits" is really just a shitty shorthand for "bad results that piss me off."