Yeah that’s fair. I just view it as a judgment call by the FO and you want to see more hits than misses in that category. I mean, even if it’s not a huge risk, those deals you make bc you expect those guys to develop - I just hope their judgment is sound more often than not on such decisions.
No doubt it's a little awkward when your two of your prearb extensions im the last year are two of the guys who've underperformed relative to expectations, while the young guys who are outstanding are still making 700k. But it's far too early to evaluate these deals, of course.
100%. It's just way too early to know whether they're hits or misses.
Although they controlled Bello for a quite while yet ...there was time to test his performance a bit longer before extending. It did seem a little rushed IMO.
Yoshida wasn't signed by the existing front office. Technically neither was Devers, but I'm not sure the current Red Sox front office would have made a different call there.
i get that but there are plenty of guys in the FO who have spanned the bloom and Breslow eras
Once he’s proven himself and is closer to FA, there’s no way he signs a deal in that price range. That seems like it warrants mention in these discussions.
Non-snarky question: by what measure has this been a step forward for him? I don't see anything that shows an improvement over last season. And yes the xFIP is what it is, but the stats that measure what actually has happened are not looking great. He's giving up more HRs and walking more people, and has a negative WAR and an ERA+ well under 100 at this point.
His pitches have regressed a bit. Bello is still young but this is probably what we are looking at, a solid middle of the rotation SP which is contract is really good for. Bello is not Kutter or Houck which is fine. Moving into a three year window with those three makes them somewhat viable as a playoff team going forward if the Red Sox actually try to invest in the team a bit.
Of course it is possible. That said the contract has a ton of value for what he is if he doesn't as well as that does not preclude the Sox from competing. I don't get why people try to drag Kutter down to build Bello up. Kutter has become a top of the rotation starter though he has dragged a bit lately. Bello really doesn't have the pitches yet to take that next step.
I wonder if there's a middle ground. The Sox extended him without much MLB data at all ..what if they waited until the off season? It would still be well before he's reached FA. Sure if they wait until October and he has a good season and the price goes up. But it still wouldn't be gotten-to-FA range. He has a bad season, and maybe they're happy they didn't extend quite yet.
Did they make an extension offer to Mookie after his first full season? I don't remember, tbh.
No, they did not.
Do the Red Sox have any dedicated personnel to work with mental health issues? Bello is still very young and showing a tendency to allow his emotions to override the composure necessary to pitch in the big leagues.
That’s a good question. Feels like a combination of mechanics and mental makeup but hard not to notice that every start seems to have an inning that doesn’t go right where he starts to unravel a bit. He isn’t a very resilient player but hopefully better maturity will come.
On some level this is my concern, that they over-corrrected for the betts miss.
He’s not making real money. This is a very low risk gamble for a team with the resources that should be available to the Sox. Sign me up for your position. I’d rather gamble on a bunch of guys like this for relatively low money than lose a guy like you know who again by not taking the risk early.
View: https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/1805753094178742337?t=1c7wGQbs54F0-W9-8GfxjQ&s=19
I love Pedro, but you may be right about his ability as a talent scout. IIRC, Pedro was also very high on Rubby De La Rosa and people were upset about trading him for Wade Miley.
That's been the case since spring training began, no? Reduction or elimination of 4-seamers has been one of Bailey's more universal influences since arriving.
There was a lot more to the Sox signing Bello than having Pedro be a fan. He tore through multiple seasons in the minors and then showed an ability to get major league hitters out in 2022/23. That's not nothing, and a pitcher with his stuff can earn a handsome sum in the open market.
Really appreciate this perspective, JFS. Are you originally from the Boston area? What started your Sox fandom? And can we put Bello on the IL for "unraveling syndrome"? ;-)
Top 7 in IP, actual FIP vs. ZIPS FIP
Perhaps. Some players just don't click with certain coaches and vice versa. That said, even just 2.5 months into a season isn't a huge sample size to determine anything conclusively. Bello's issues now aren't that dissimilar to what was happening last year, and other than an adjustment to his pitch mix (dumping the 4-seamer), we really don't know exactly what or how much Bailey has done or tried to do with him.
it seems its a mental thing with Bello... That's not something a Pitching coach can fix on their own
