It is an obvious statement in re turnovers, but the point in terms of prognosticating is not just stating the obvious, it's that statistically Manning is far more likely to turn the ball over. So, yes, if that happens...but statstically INTs should be more a Denver problem.
Teams with great defenses tend to pile up close wins.
Or Baltimore, or just imagine an NFC match-up of NYG at PHI or WASH. Those would be good times for the people who deal with the team travel arrangements.
This sentence got me thinking, so I did some quick research using PFR's game finder tool. You can try to brush this off as simply a team with a great defense winning a lot of close games, but the number of close games Denver has played, as well as their record in those games, is anything but typical.
And certainly, they don't panic when behind, especially at home. I kind of think one advantage the Patriots have in recent years is that Belichick really understands how these games go -- from the multiple time outs and longer waits to the controlled mahem that is the fourth quarter, when the time outs stop and they don't go to commercials with change of possession. When the communications maybe are breaking down, the play clock is running, and the opposing coach can't quite get the right personnel on the field, etc. Broncos won't be so affected. If anything, the grind of playing at altitude will hurt the visitor.
Well, we did lose a playoff game once to Mark Sanchez. I think Manning is going to play fine - something like 270 yards 2 TD / 1 INT. Brady will need to be on his game for us to win.
Peyton has only had 2 games that fit this stat line, and both were 4 months ago. @DET and @KC
It's as simple as this to me, and as simple as Manning's TD/INT ratio. totally respect the Broncos and their defense is better than the Pats. But the Pats offense is so much better than the Broncos that it's only home field advantage and some lucky breaks that will keep Denver in this. Totally possible -- I'll be nervous as there's a reason they play the games. But the Pats win this 7 out of 10 times.
I have said this multiple times. Kubiak screwed up IMO bringing Peyton in vs. the Chargers. Brock was playing fine, they were gonna win that game regardless. And they would have beaten Pitt last week with Brock as well. Then if Brock struggled vs. the Pats he could still bring in Peyton for the supposed "spark". Now he is stuck with Manning for better or for worse. We'll see if he was right.
Peyton's game logs this year: Yards/TD/INT
This is interesting, but lacks some context. Pulling from the list of field surfaces as well as Brady's splits, let's see if there's anything to this trend...
Almost every "ideal SB matchup" column I've read has had the Patriots as the favored winner from the AFC.
If today's game were in Fox, there would be a lot of talk of an AFC Championship game resembling last year's -- close for a half, but Pats pulling away. And that talk would be reasonable IMO.
It was pretty funny listening to the MMQB podcast this week, where Robert Klemko basically said that this will be an exciting Super Bowl to watch no matter what..... as long as Denver isn't in it. I think Pats-Cards would have the highest entertainment potential, but Pats-Panthers would be great to watch as well.
When you say "stuck," this means you think the situation is political (not disagreeing). As someone who has been drinking the BB kool-aid for more then a decade, a political decision is unfathomable.
Going further back - and focusing on Brady since he's the only player left from a decade ago, recall that the Patriots didn't install the Field Turf until November 2006. They ripped it up after a mid-November loss to the Jets and had it ready for the next home game against the Bears at the end of the month.
It's the playoffs in the NFL, there is always reason to be nervous when its one and done. How nervous do you think the Rams fans were back in SB36? Everyone said beat down and looked how that turned out. It's not going to be a Colts like romp from last year. If the Pats win I believe it will be by 10-14 points, if they lose I believe it will come down to the last possession. Enjoy the ride, you never know when this could be the last one.
This is where I'm at too HBDS. We can talk about contingencies (e.g. turnovers, injuries, etc.) changing the game, but this is the key matchup. If CJ Anderson is kept in check, I have no doubt the Pats take this. If Denver is putting 15-20 play scoring drives together and chewing clock, that points to a big advantage in their favor. Taken in conjunction with the fact that the Pats will presumably struggle to run the ball, that's the aspect of the game making me most apprehensive.
If I was a betting man, this is the kind of thing I would do.
Instead of doing that you should take the NFC to win the Super Bowl. That's the gambling play on Denver. Because if Denver wins you'll have an amazing, virtually unloseable bet on the Super Bowl, if the Pats win you still have your consolation play alive.
If the Pats lose that dirty Denver money won't make you feel better.
That's smart. I'll take that money and get a real gimpy shelter dog and put a Manning jersey on it. That'll cheer me up.
