Brady/Manning XV: AFC Championship Game

RedOctober3829

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2nd quarter
-Shotty tackling in the run game.
-saw some zone coverage. Not good as WRs were wide open. Need to play man.
-Logan Ryan on Decker.
-They've used 2 or 3 counters and they've had good success.
-Brandon Bolden saw considerable action. Won't see that this week.
--Beginning to spread them out 4 and 5 wides.
--Demariyus Thomas dropped a couple easy ones.
-That screen to Ball on 3rd and long killed them.
-Tackling needs to improve and so does getting off blocks.
--Hightower was on the TE and got beat by Tamme on a post, but Harmon let him get behind him. Collins covered TEs a bit too.
 

RedOctober3829

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2nd qtr cont'd
--Pats tried to run it, but it was with Bolden and Vereen because of Ridley's fumble and Blount's injury. Not exactly the power running they'll feature Sunday.

--spikes actually played ok in coverage.
--Logan Ryan continues to play Decker tough.
--Knighton was very active all half.
--Still can't believe DRC hurt himself on that Hail Mary.
 

NortheasternPJ

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RedOctober3829 said:
2nd qtr cont'd
--Pats tried to run it, but it was with Bolden and Vereen because of Ridley's fumble and Blount's injury. Not exactly the power running they'll feature Sunday.

--spikes actually played ok in coverage.
--Logan Ryan continues to play Decker tough.
--Knighton was very active all half.
--Still can't believe DRC hurt himself on that Hail Mary.
 
Any sign of Collins?
 

H78

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Collins had some real flashes during this game
 

H78

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Also, Brady was protected really well at times
 

RedOctober3829

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3rd
--started in the spread and carved them up. Tempo was much faster and crisp.
--they ran the Broncos CBs off rubs and Tom found the open man. Edelman just abused Jammer.
--Broncos keep spreading Pats out and running draw after draw with Moreno. O line just knocking pats off the ball. Even if they were giving them those they need to do better job of getting into the gaps and let the LBs tackle.
--great form tackle by Fletcher. Head was right on the ball and forced the fumble on Ball.
--god I miss Gronk.
--BB:This is a big red area game. Same is true for Sunday.
--when they ran it in the 2nd half, they were able to get good chunks of yardage.
--Logan Ryan on Welker.
--Collins in coverage but gets fooled on crossing routes. He did get in on PM and forces him to fumble. Great a gap pressure.
--Play action pass to Edelman was great to get in red area. Brady really sold it like was a run Pre-snap.
--Can't say how good of a job Logan Ryan did. Needs to step it up again.
 

ss s h h hh

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dbn said:
 
This is interesting, but where did you get this from? 
 
 
I just remembered that, without thinking about it while packing, I brought back some coca tea from Peru. I do recall being a bit nervous that some beagle would rat me out in line at immigration, but it was okay. I did, at least, remember before packing to discard the small pouch of leaves that I had been chewing.
 
I'm a professional distance runner. It's my job to know :) Spent nearly 6 months training at varying altitudes (4500-10,500ft) last year and have an altitude OBSESSED coach. He knows everything.
 

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RedOctober3829 said:
Big call in OT was that OPI on Decker.
 
How about the lack of DPI with the guy riding KT's back? That was the worst non-call of the season imo, even if there were obviously ones that had a bigger impact in the outcome.
 

RedOctober3829

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Ed Hillel said:
How about the lack of DPI with the guy riding KT's back? That was the worst non-call of the season imo, even if there were obviously ones that had a bigger impact in the outcome.
Yeah, that was really bad. His arm was draped all over the back of his shoulder. It was clearly PI.
 

Ralphwiggum

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86spike said:
Who was not Julius Thomas, it bears mentioning.
 
Right, it has been mentioned at least five times in this very thread.  But thanks for pointing it out again.  You are doing yeoman's work in here already this week and it is only Tuesday.
 

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Thanks for the notes regarding the regular season game, Red.  I saw about a quarter of the game last night and I just wanted to point out that Von Miller was a force and he of course will be watching this one in sweats.  As we learned yesterday so too will be their best corner, Harris Jr., who wasn't involved in many plays I saw (probably because he was doing a good job in coverage and there were weaker DBs to pick on). 
 
I know Blount and the running game has really emerged lately, but I think this is going to be the Air Brady show.  And if DRC or Bailey happen to get hurt, look out. 
 

dcmissle

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amarshal2 said:
How in the world are they coming up with Pats > Broncos on offense? I'm the first to point out Denver's light schedule but c'mon.
 
 
This would provide the exclamation point to the sentence that concludes, "damn lies and statistics."
 
No matter.  Anyone that relies on FO for guidance on how playoff games are likely to turn out deserves what he or she gets.  They are interesting but provide only one input for analysis that should encompass many other things.
 

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I just read that PFF ranked NE offensive line 15th this year and the Broncos line #1. I think the Broncos line is not that good but they benefit from Manning's quick release. I also think that the Pats line has played demonstratively better in the last three games. I think they were hurt by Brady holding the ball longer than usual when all he had were Edelman, and the two rookies and obviously the loss of Vollmer.
 

MarcSullivaFan

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dcmissle said:
 
 
This would provide the exclamation point to the sentence that concludes, "damn lies and statistics."
 
No matter.  Anyone that relies on FO for guidance on how playoff games are likely to turn out deserves what he or she gets.  They are interesting but provide only one input for analysis that should encompass many other things.
Seems off to me as well. However, it's worth noting that Schatz did clarify on twitter yesterday that he still believes that Denver is appropriately favored in Sunday's AFCC game. Denver also has a slight edge in their SB odds.

https://twitter.com/fo_aschatz/status/422890027971264514

https://twitter.com/fboutsiders/status/422816776754196480
 

Stitch01

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dcmissle said:
 
 
This would provide the exclamation point to the sentence that concludes, "damn lies and statistics."
 
No matter.  Anyone that relies on FO for guidance on how playoff games are likely to turn out deserves what he or she gets.  They are interesting but provide only one input for analysis that should encompass many other things.
 The giant pile of money they'd be sitting on if they followed FO's best bets (this isnt one of them) over the last five years)?
 

dcmissle

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MarcSullivaFan said:
Seems off to me as well. However, it's worth noting that Schatz did clarify on twitter yesterday that he still believes that Denver is appropriately favored in Sunday's AFCC game. Denver also has a slight edge in their SB odds.

https://twitter.com/fo_aschatz/status/422890027971264514

https://twitter.com/fboutsiders/status/422816776754196480
 
I don't have a problem with anyone favoring NE vs Denver this Sunday, even though Schatz (a Pats fan) apparently doesn't.
 
It's just the notion that the Pat's offense > Denver's that is nuts.  Just ask who the Pats fattened up against the past few weeks and how they got fat.  Then project that against SF or Sea, as compared with what Denver could bring to the table offensively.
 

wiffleballhero

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Given the injuries to our few deep threats and Denver's loss of Harris, any chance Reggie Dunn gets pushed into the line-up. From what was out there last week everyone was really impressed by his speed and impersonation of Hilton and it does not seem like he would need to know all that much to run real deep.
 

wiffleballhero

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Fair enough, but Slater is already on the roster. Dunn is faster too. I am not imagining a ton of snaps, but it would be nice to have some fast, deep options given the changing landscape with Denver's pass D.
 

RedOctober3829

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wiffleballhero said:
Fair enough, but Slater is already on the roster. Dunn is faster too. I am not imagining a ton of snaps, but it would be nice to have some fast, deep options given the changing landscape with Denver's pass D.
Dunn is on the practice squad. You'd have to make a roster move to get him on the 53. Who are you cutting to include him? Collie? Put Thompkins or Dobson on IR? I don't think they'll do any of these to put Dunn on the roster.
 

wiffleballhero

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I am assuming a situation where either Thompkins or Dobson is more banged up than we know about yet. There are only, at most, two games left. If you know  that both Thompkins and/or Dobson can't go in five days but maybe can go if you advance do you still not put one of them on IR? 
 
I would assume that Thompkins would be fine in two weeks, but Sunday? As for Dobson, is there any reason to think he'll go Sunday?
 

RedOctober3829

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wiffleballhero said:
I am assuming a situation where either Thompkins or Dobson is more banged up than we know about yet. There are only, at most, two games left. If you know  that both Thompkins and/or Dobson can't go in five days but maybe can go if you advance do you still not put one of them on IR? 
 
I would assume that Thompkins would be fine in two weeks, but Sunday? As for Dobson, is there any reason to think he'll go Sunday?
It's really tough to come in and learn the play book and get on the same page with Brady in a week or so. I'd rather see if Dobson/Thompkins can go rather than closing the book on them completely. If the injuries were serious enough one or the other would be on IR already.
 

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RedOctober3829 said:
It's really tough to come in and learn the play book and get on the same page with Brady in a week or so. I'd rather see if Dobson/Thompkins can go rather than closing the book on them completely. If the injuries were serious enough one or the other would be on IR already.
 
 
A good part of me just wants to IR their asses out of pure frustration.  But never forget Timmy Smith.
 
This would be the one year I'll be happy with two weeks between games.
 

Stitch01

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wiffleballhero said:
I am assuming a situation where either Thompkins or Dobson is more banged up than we know about yet. There are only, at most, two games left. If you know  that both Thompkins and/or Dobson can't go in five days but maybe can go if you advance do you still not put one of them on IR? 
 
I would assume that Thompkins would be fine in two weeks, but Sunday? As for Dobson, is there any reason to think he'll go Sunday?
The chances of Dunn contributing to this offense are basically 0, so as long as there's a chance Thompkins or Dobson make it back I wouldnt make a roster move.  Thompkins has a reasonable chance of playing this week anyways I think, Dobson probably not.
 

MarcSullivaFan

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dcmissle said:
 
I don't have a problem with anyone favoring NE vs Denver this Sunday, even though Schatz (a Pats fan) apparently doesn't.
 
It's just the notion that the Pat's offense > Denver's that is nuts.  Just ask who the Pats fattened up against the past few weeks and how they got fat.  Then project that against SF or Sea, as compared with what Denver could bring to the table offensively.
I tend to agree that Denver is the better offense, and a better matchup against SF or Seattle--I think a run heavy offense is going to struggle against those teams. But NE has played a significantly tougher group of defenses in the last quarter of the season plus the divisional round, whether you judge by weighted DVOA or by total points allowed. And both offenses have scored ~33 ppg over that period. So it's not totally unreasonable to argue that the Patriots offense is better right now.
 

RedOctober3829

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Interesting comment by BB which we talked about in this thread. I'm not sure he's gone out to Denver early before.

@GlobeWhitmer: Bill Belichick says Patriots might fly to Denver on Friday, and says team will put out injury report Wed when asked about Ryan Allen status.
 

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RedOctober3829 said:
Interesting comment by BB which we talked about in this thread. I'm not sure he's gone out to Denver early before.

@GlobeWhitmer: Bill Belichick says Patriots might fly to Denver on Friday, and says team will put out injury report Wed when asked about Ryan Allen status.
 
Why wouldn't more teams go out a week ahead of time?  Logistics?  You'd think they'd want as much time as possible at altitude.  Just ask Hasim Rahman.
 

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Marciano490 said:
 
Why wouldn't more teams go out a week ahead of time?  Logistics?  You'd think they'd want as much time as possible at altitude.  Just ask Hasim Rahman.
 
I'd imagine that's it.  Whatever advantage Denver has concerning altitude adjustments, I imagine the extra day of rest NE has will make up for it.
 

Captaincoop

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RedOctober3829 said:
Interesting comment by BB which we talked about in this thread. I'm not sure he's gone out to Denver early before.

@GlobeWhitmer: Bill Belichick says Patriots might fly to Denver on Friday, and says team will put out injury report Wed when asked about Ryan Allen status.
 
From at least one piece I've read, the altitude effects peak at 24-48 hours from arrival.  So it may actually be best to arrive as close to kickoff as is feasible and try and avoid that window.  In reality, given the typical NFL travel schedule, altitude may be an unavoidable issue (albeit a minor one).
 

NickEsasky

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Dogman2 said:
Yeah, having a few beers at the elevation will hit you much faster than at sea level.
 
I remember being a 20 year old college junior having 3 beers in Leadville, CO (~12,000 ft) and being shitfaced.
Man, when I was in my peak drinking form in college, I could have been on the top of Mt. Everest and 3 beers still would have done nothing to me. I now think less of you. 
 

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NickEsasky said:
Man, when I was in my peak drinking form in college, I could have been on the top of Mt. Everest and 3 beers still would have done nothing to me. I now think less of you. 
 
My guess is you never were higher than 2,000 feet at that age. At least now we are on par with each other though.  I always thought less of you.
 

mauf

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Iirc, the Nuggets enjoy an unusually large home-court advantage that is likely due to the altitude. I've never seen an analysis suggesting the Broncos enjoy a similar advantage.
 
Which, on an intuitive level, makes sense to me.
 
Edit: Not conclusive, but in this three-year window the Jazz (el. 4,226 ft.) had the NBA's largest home-court advantage, and the Nuggets were #3.
 
 

NickEsasky

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Dogman2 said:
 
My guess is you never were higher than 2,000 feet at that age. At least now we are on par. with each other though.  I always thought less of you.
Nah I got high all the time in college. 
 

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Dogman2 said:
Yeah, having a few beers at the elevation will hit you much faster than at sea level.
 
I remember being a 20 year old college junior having 3 beers in Leadville, CO (~12,000 ft) and being shitfaced.
 
That's because you're a nancy
 

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NickEsasky said:
Man, when I was in my peak drinking form in college, I could have been on the top of Mt. Everest and 3 beers still would have done nothing to me. I now think less of you. 
So Nick Esasky isn't affected by heights?
 

RedOctober3829

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@Nick_Underhill: The Patriots did not work out any punters today, per a league source. If they did, it was in the evening and it would be reported tomorrow.

This would seem to indicate they think Allen is good to go.
 

Phragle

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Bergs said:
M as in mancy!
 
Bravo
 
RedOctober3829 said:
@Nick_Underhill: The Patriots did not work out any punters today, per a league source. If they did, it was in the evening and it would be reported tomorrow.
 
This would seem to indicate they have no interest in punting because the Denver defense is so shit