Brady/Manning XV: AFC Championship Game

[ivanvamp]

Denver runs pick plays against man coverage on seemingly every pass play.  They never get called for it.  Yesterday San Diego *did* get called for a pick play.  I'm worried that NE will get called for one or two of those while Denver gets away with it all game long.  Same thing for DPI or illegal contact or defensive holding.  I can see the Pats getting called for one or two huge penalties while Denver skates.
 
1.  NE beat Denver already - the Pats know they can win.
2.  But NE was at home, and now they're in Denver; NE doesn't have Gronk, while Den has Julius Thomas; NE probably won't have Dobson either.
3.  But NE has the emergence of Jamie Collins as a brand-new weapon, really.  
4.  Denver's defense lost Von Miller; NE should be able to exploit that.
 
I see NE trying to pound the ball and use play-action a lot against Denver's secondary.  Actually I'd love to see hurry-up with a lot of power running; get the best of both worlds.  
 
Not ready yet for a full pre-game analysis, but this should be a phenomenal game.  Actually, phenomenal two games, as Seattle-SF should be epic as well.

 

[86spike]

Denver also got flagged for a pick on offense yesterday.

 

[86spike]

I hate this kind of analysis because it is almost always the case that it goes both ways, and that certainly happened today.  San Diego missed a field goal; they dropped an interception on a drive where Denver ended up scoring a TD;they got a penalty to knock them out of field goal range early in the game; they had a broken coverage that allowed the Broncos to convert on 3rd and 17 late; etc.  Just those plays alone are a 13 to 17 point swing, and there were others as well, especially numerous penalties by SD.  
 
Per usual, both teams made mistakes.  The difference was Denver getting the early lead due to good offense on their part and poor offensive gameplanning on SD's part that played right into their hands, imo.  

Jesus, read the thread.

I was making the same point you just made. SD played a sloppy game but we're still hanging around til the end. Someone said they didn't know how SD hung around and I pointed out those sloppy Denver plays and missed opportunities as the reason why. Both teams left points on the table with poor play. That's why it was a close game.

 

[ivanvamp]

Tom Brady, last 4 games against Denver:
 
12/18/11, at Den:  23-34 (67.7%), 320 yds, 9.4 ypa, 2 td, 0 int, 117.3 rating
1/14/12, vs Den:  26-34 (76.5%), 363 yds, 10.7 ypa, 6 td, 1 int, 137.6 rating
10/7/12, vs Den:  23-31 (74.2%), 223 yds, 7.2 ypa, 1 td, 0 int, 104.6 rating
11/24/13, vs Den:  34-50 (68.0%), 344 yds, 6.9 ypa, 3 td, 0 int, 107.4 rating
 
AVERAGE GAME:  27-37 (72.9%), 313 yds, 8.5 yap, 3 td, 0 int
 
I love the idea of pounding Denver with the run, but my goodness, Brady has just absolutely carved them up with the pass the past 3 seasons.  Kind of the best of both worlds, I think.

 

[ivanvamp]

Denver also got flagged for a pick on offense yesterday.

 
Ok, thanks.  I missed that.  Good to know.

 

[ObstructedView]

 
What about the missed SD FG and their 5 defensive offsides?  +10 points to Denver.

Yeah, we could play this game all day. How about the dropped INT that Peyton threw on Denver's first drive? +7 for the Broncos. Errors and poor execution happen in every game, usually in both directions.

 

[bowiac]

Every team runs pick plays. They're roughly proportional to the amount of passes you throw.

 

[MarcSullivaFan]

Tom Brady, last 4 games against Denver:
 
12/18/11, at Den:  23-34 (67.7%), 320 yds, 9.4 ypa, 2 td, 0 int, 117.3 rating
1/14/12, vs Den:  26-34 (76.5%), 363 yds, 10.7 ypa, 6 td, 1 int, 137.6 rating
10/7/12, vs Den:  23-31 (74.2%), 223 yds, 7.2 ypa, 1 td, 0 int, 104.6 rating
11/24/13, vs Den:  34-50 (68.0%), 344 yds, 6.9 ypa, 3 td, 0 int, 107.4 rating
 
AVERAGE GAME:  27-37 (72.9%), 313 yds, 8.5 yap, 3 td, 0 int
 
I love the idea of pounding Denver with the run, but my goodness, Brady has just absolutely carved them up with the pass the past 3 seasons.  Kind of the best of both worlds, I think.

Except he doesn't have Gronk (who played in all of those games) or Hernandez, who played in several of them. At this point (especially if Dobson doesn't play) expecting Brady to throw the ball all over the place is unrealistic. I think he can have a solid game, and hit on some big plays off play action down the field, but I expect running (and play action) to be a big part of the game plan.

 

[Morning Woodhead]

Repost from the "Glass Half Full Thread".  This was before the Broncos game earlier this year, so now it jumps to 8-0.  I realize it's not totally applicable, but it still makes me happy. 
 
 
 
As for glass half full, the BB and TB Patriots have NEVER LOST to a Jack Del Rio coached team.  EVER.  Different players, different teams and all that, but.....
 
In 01 when he as D-Cord for Panthers, Pats won. 
In 03-11 when he was coach of Jax Pats went 5-0 against him, including 2 playoff games.
Last year as D-Cord for Denver, Pats won again. 
 
I hope he does not leave for USC during the season.

 

[Ed Hillel]

The more I think about it, the more I have to go with Denver, in part because all the adversity they have had to overcome this year:

http://m.espn.go.com/nfl/story?storyId=10285112

 

[Leather]

"Sure the patriots have dealt with a murder scandal and their second best player missing most of the season, as well as losing two of their three best defenders, and starting the season with rookies as the wide receivers....

But Champ Bailey's foot hurts and Von Miller was using steroids!

 

[Stitch01]

Who said sizable advantage on D? Not me. I said it's an advantage but I didn't say it was sizable.
 
Brady was great yesterday. His stats were not but he was in complete contol all game. 
 
On those deep balls Luck was able to escape the pass rush by the slimmest of margins. It was both something Luck could probably not do again, and something Manning could never do, never mind in his current state.
 
Basically what I'm saying is get your head out of the box score, it can be very misleading.
 

 
I'm often guilty of throwing a troll into an otherwise serious post, but I think Brady is better than Manning right now. Manning has much better weapons and stats, but if you just isolate the player I think Brady is better in the playoffs. 
 
Here are Brady's ratings this weekend if the corresponding rushing TDs were instead passing TDs
 
1 - 91.7
2 - 105.0
3 - 118.0
 
And here is Manning's rating if that easy interception was not dropped
 
81.9
 
Now if those were the lines they actually put up would that change your opinion on how they played? If it does then you're putting too much emphasis on what happened (box score) instead of how they played, the process, what easily could have happened, and what is most likely to happen next time. This isn't really directed at you, Ed.

I think Manning plays at a little higher level than Brady these days. His downfield accuracy is better. Brady will have the easier defense to throw against come Sunday though, and that combination has usually ended well for New England.

 

[Buster Olney the Lonely]

The more I think about it, the more I have to go with Denver, in part because all the adversity they have had to overcome this year:

http://m.espn.go.com/nfl/story?storyId=10285112

Bud Light. Just one more reason to hate Peyton Manning.

 

[crystalline]

I think Manning plays at a little higher level than Brady these days. His downfield accuracy is better. Brady will have the easier defense to throw against come Sunday though, and that combination has usually ended well for New England.

Looks that way in a sample of one. On the throw mentioned above to Amendola, Brady's pass was just inaccurate enough that Amendola had to slow down to catch it. Good thing he was ridiculously wide open to start.

 

[Van Everyman]

Same could be said of Manning's 3rd and 17 completion to Thomas. These guys aren't robots.

 

[JimD]

I'm thinking there will be a minimum of 3 brutal calls against the Patriots next week. I don't think think the NFL wants the Patriots to play in the Super Bowl (again) over Peyton Manning and the Broncos. This game will have all the sublety of a WWE match where Bill Polian is the guest referee. I'm not saying the Patriots will lose, but to win, they will have to overcome more than the Broncos, Manning, oxygen depletion and the road game.  That is a helluva lot to overcome.
 
So, overcome it.

[SIZE=10pt]Why would the league be opposed to the Patriots in the SB?  They are absolutely a marquee team and their inclusion in the championship game is a no-lose proposition for the NFL – either the evil Belichick is vanquished and the haters rejoice, or Belichick and Brady win their fourth title together and cement their legacy as the greatest coach-QB combination in league history (giving the NFL a golden opportunity to remind the world of its glorious past). [/SIZE]

 

[dcmissle]

[SIZE=10pt]Why would the league be opposed to the Patriots in the SB?  They are absolutely a marquee team and their inclusion in the championship game is a no-lose proposition for the NFL – either the evil Belichick is vanquished and the haters rejoice, or Belichick and Brady win their fourth title together and cement their legacy as the greatest coach-QB combination in league history (giving the NFL a golden opportunity to remind the world of its glorious past). [/SIZE]

 
 
Stop being naive.  Goodell fixed the weather:
 
 

Next Sunday, weather won’t be a factor for the two games that will determine the representatives in Super Bowl XLVIII.
 
 
According to Weather.com, the high temperature in Seattle for the 49ers-Seahawks game will be 50 degrees, with light winds and a 30-percent chance of rain.  In Denver, the Pats and Broncos will play with no chance of rain, light winds, and a high of 55 — and a low of 33.
 
 
And so the “Peyton can’t win in the cold” narrative will be irrelevant.  The “Peyton can’t win big games” narrative could be relevant.
 
 

 
Or, at least, took the belt-and-suspenders approach by phoning in the calls in the Jets and Panthers games.

 

[soxfan121]

This polar vortex thing not affecting anything other than the GB-SF game is a bunch of bullshit.

 

[rodderick]

I think Manning plays at a little higher level than Brady these days. His downfield accuracy is better. Brady will have the easier defense to throw against come Sunday though, and that combination has usually ended well for New England.

 
If they traded offensive weapons, how do you think Manning would fare? Brady's number one receiver, Julian Edelman, would likely be battling with Andre Caldwell for the fifth spot in Denver's depth chart. People continue to severely underestimate how Edelman, Amendola, Thompkins, Hooman is a downright subpar receiving group.

 

[dcmissle]

This polar vortex thing not affecting anything other than the GB-SF game is a bunch of bullshit.

 
 
I figured you'd be looking for me with a hunting rifle at this point.  The weather in Denver can be as variable as the Chargers.  It is not stunning that the mile high city would have temps in the 50s on consecutive January weekends.  It's also not surprising when it gets  weather that the Ravens benefitted from a year ago.

 

[Paul M]

On paper, I can't see the Patriots winning, but it seems like they've pulled out the games where popular opinion is against them. Beating Pitt and St. Louis in 2002, Indy in 2004, Pitt in 2005, San Diego 2007. I see Denver's offense and Manning's proficiency nad it worries me. Maybe the mystique is gone but forever the prospect of winning in Denver was a tall order, but this was in teh 1980s and 1990s. Winning a road playoff game in Denver and doing it with the roster they have now is not quite the 2002 Super Bowl, but almost as big.
 
Not ready to dive into this game specifically, but I think there are lessons from the past that can help a little, and it's not very analytical, but not being the favorite and not relying on the pass game disproportionately does harken back a little to the 2001 team. #2 seed again and going on the road to a hostile stadium but there's confidence here of course. Here's hoping for a pick Six or some special teams magic which were keys in that run.

 

[Dogman]

Jesus, read the thread.

I was making the same point you just made. SD played a sloppy game but we're still hanging around til the end. Someone said they didn't know how SD hung around and I pointed out those sloppy Denver plays and missed opportunities as the reason why. Both teams left points on the table with poor play. That's why it was a close game.

 
Well, the point that was being made was that each team made a number of mistakes that essentially cancel each other out.  If you want to get into the semantics of which were more costly, go for it but I'm not interested in that. San Diego was in the game because Denver sustained 3 drives over 6 minutes long. They had TOP of 35:27. Denver, different than what they did all season, preferred possession and did not score quickly.  They held the ball by running between the tackles and moved the chains. This is the biggest reason San Diego was still alive and not the mistakes Denver made.
 
Further, you said three times yesterday that the Harris injury was the reason SD was able to pass late in the game.  Not true.  San Diego threw the ball a total of 27 times.  In the first half, Rivers threw the ball 8 times.  That had nothing to do with Harris on the field. Let's not pretend that when the 4th quarter began, the Harris injury opened things up.  At that point,SD had to throw and when they did, Allen did what he did all season, he got open. Having Jammer on him for 4 of Allen's catches surely helped but let's not go overboard.

 

[CantKeepmedown]

"Sure the patriots have dealt with a murder scandal and their second best player missing most of the season, as well as losing two of their three best defenders, and starting the season with rookies as the wide receivers....

But Champ Bailey's foot hurts and Von Miller was using steroids!

 And let's not forget, the Broncos have had to deal with the pain and emotion of choking in the divisional playoff game against the Raven's last year.
 
This is the same guy that wrote that the Pats dynasty was in decline after losing to the Ravens last year. So, yeah.......

 

[Leather]

 And let's not forget, the Broncos have had to deal with the pain and emotion of choking in the divisional playoff game against the Raven's last year.
 
This is the same guy that wrote that the Pats dynasty was in decline after losing to the Ravens last year. So, yeah.......

 
Is this the same guy?  There was one guy last year who wrote something like "At the very least, this marks the end of the Patriots being a premier team.  It's over.  Good riddance."

 

[mrl714]

Looking forward to seeing what the Moneyline is at.

 

[86spike]

"Sure the patriots have dealt with a murder scandal and their second best player missing most of the season, as well as losing two of their three best defenders, and starting the season with rookies as the wide receivers....

But Champ Bailey's foot hurts and Von Miller was using steroids!

 
That point in that article is stupid, but I need to correct one thing:
 
Von Miller was suspended for non-PED drugs.  If it was a PED suspension, he would have been banned from team facilities during the suspension.  He was not.  (Of course, the probability that he is on PEDs is likely above 80%, just like the rest of the NFL).

 

[Stitch01]

Looking forward to seeing what the Moneyline is at.

Opened +205 or so, now +185. 
 
In my amateur opinion, if you didnt bet the Pats at open Id wait until Sunday.

 

[86spike]

 
Well, the point that was being made was that each team made a number of mistakes that essentially cancel each other out.  If you want to get into the semantics of which were more costly, go for it but I'm not interested in that. San Diego was in the game because Denver sustained 3 drives over 6 minutes long. They had TOP of 35:27. Denver, different than what they did all season, preferred possession and did not score quickly.  They held the ball by running between the tackles and moved the chains. This is the biggest reason San Diego was still alive and not the mistakes Denver made.
 
Further, you said three times yesterday that the Harris injury was the reason SD was able to pass late in the game.  Not true.  San Diego threw the ball a total of 27 times.  In the first half, Rivers threw the ball 8 times.  That had nothing to do with Harris on the field. Let's not pretend that when the 4th quarter began, the Harris injury opened things up.  At that point,SD had to throw and when they did, Allen did what he did all season, he got open. Having Jammer on him for 4 of Allen's catches surely helped but let's not go overboard.

 
Point 1: I'm not going to sit here and let people claim I was trying to make an excuse for Denver.  I was not doing so.  I was pointing out the fact that they played sloppy in several instances just like SD did.  When someone says "I hate this type of justification" - I object because it is not any type of justification.  It is just discussing the facts of the game.  I'm done arguing this.  
 
Point 2: Harris on the field keeps Rivers' targets unavailable to him.  You don't think the choice of run/pass might be influenced by what SD was seeing in coverage?  Sure, Jammer being in isn't 100% of the reason for the passing success and the need to score quickly while behind late is definitely a factor, but I do think Denver took away open receivers in the first half and Harris is a big part of that (with DRC - who has been our best DB all year and Champ).  My point is: you cannot say "SD should have started throwing earlier!!!!" without taking into consideration the fact that Harris was out there in coverage for the first half.  Football is much more intricate than that.

 

[loshjott]

 And let's not forget, the Broncos have had to deal with the pain and emotion of choking in the divisional playoff game against the Raven's last year.
 
 

 
Well, the Pats have to deal with that also (AFCCG), so it cancels out.

 

[MarcSullivaFan]

Does not sound good for Harris;

http://blogs.denverpost.com/broncos/2014/01/13/broncos-fear-chris-harris-knee-injury-is-serious/25034/

 

[dcmissle]

This didn't take long.  Rodney had a great interview with Tom right after the game on the NFLN.  They hugged.
 

“I know when we played Baltimore no one picked us to win and no one’s gonna pick us to win this week,” Brady said. “We’ve had our backs against the wall for a while, really the whole season. We’ve lost players and teams have really counted us out. We’ve got a bunch of underdogs on our team and we’ll be underdogs again. We’ll see how that shakes out at the end of the week.”
 

 

[dcmissle]

This didn't take long.  Rodney had a great interview with Tom right after the game on the NFLN.  They hugged.
 

 
 Edit.  I'm sorry.  The interview was with Willie.  Rodney was there in spirit.

 

[Dogman]

 
Point 1: I'm not going to sit here and let people claim I was trying to make an excuse for Denver.  I was not doing so.  I was pointing out the fact that they played sloppy in several instances just like SD did.  When someone says "I hate this type of justification" - I object because it is not any type of justification.  It is just discussing the facts of the game.  I'm done arguing this.  
 
Point 2: Harris on the field keeps Rivers' targets unavailable to him.  You don't think the choice of run/pass might be influenced by what SD was seeing in coverage?  Sure, Jammer being in isn't 100% of the reason for the passing success and the need to score quickly while behind late is definitely a factor, but I do think Denver took away open receivers in the first half and Harris is a big part of that (with DRC - who has been our best DB all year and Champ).  My point is: you cannot say "SD should have started throwing earlier!!!!" without taking into consideration the fact that Harris was out there in coverage for the first half.  Football is much more intricate than that.

 
You aren't thinking this through.  Ed thought to himself, "How was SD in this game?"  You answered that it was Denver's mistakes.  That wasn't the case yesterday and yes, it is debatable.
 
Like you said yesterday, Spike, SD game plan all year was TOP via running the ball.  That was the gameplan yesterday and not because of "Harris is superduper awesome!!211!1" You don't throw 8 times in one half because of one corner.
 
I'm well aware of the the intricate nature of football.

 

[soxfan121]

 
 
I figured you'd be looking for me with a hunting rifle at this point.  The weather in Denver can be as variable as the Chargers.  It is not stunning that the mile high city would have temps in the 50s on consecutive January weekends.  It's also not surprising when it gets  weather that the Ravens benefitted from a year ago.

 
Nah, unless you're more Bond-villain than I give you credit for, you don't control the weather. And yeah, I've read (with growing consternation) the average weather for Denver for months now. 
 
But regardless of result, the Manning Theory will survive this weekend. We just have to hope for garden-variety choking and not the combo of that and bad weather choking. 

 

[Super Nomario]

It was mostly Talib in the first half, then when he left, Arrington.

It was mostly McCourty after Talib went out. 
 

Beginning to equalize defensive injuries would be nice for Pats---even with Miller out they are well 'ahead' there sadly.

I'm not so sure. The two highest-PFF-graded Denver defenders from the first meeting - Miller and Vickerson - are on IR, and there's a good chance Harris and Wolfe don't play either. That's like a third of their D. Even if they get Bailey back, that's a lot of attrition.
 

--Jamie Collins needs to play as good or better this week. Julius Thomas is no Coby Fleener. If he can stay with him, it opens up the safeties to give help other places instead of playing JT and leaving the middle vulnerable.
 
In my mind, Jamie Collins is the X-factor for this game. If he can match up with JT, I think our secondary can handle their receivers. They are healthier than the last matchup as Talib was hobbled, Dennard had surgery just the week of the game, and Gregory was out.

The other thing Collins brought Saturday was middle blitzing. I could see the Pats doing some plays where they blitz Collins but drop Ninkovich into coverage, so they still have just a four-man rush but get more push up the middle. It's so tough to sack Manning, but if you can collapse his pocket maybe you can affect his throws.
 

Brady is 1-4 in Denver without Gronk.

Yeah, but those games were in 2001, 2005 (twice), and 2009 - not exactly applicable.

 

[DaughtersofDougMirabelli]

 
You aren't thinking this through.  Ed thought to himself, "How was SD in this game?"  You answered that it was Denver's mistakes.  That wasn't the case yesterday and yes, it is debatable.
 
Like you said yesterday, Spike, SD game plan all year was TOP via running the ball.  That was the gameplan yesterday and not because of "Harris is superduper awesome!!211!1" You don't throw 8 times in one half because of one corner.
 
I'm well aware of the the intricate nature of football.

 
Ed said 'SD made a ton of mistakes how were they in this game?' and Spike basically answered 'Broncos made quite a few mistakes themselves.'
 
I don't think this is debatable. This was not a mistake free game by any means by either team. 

 

[RedOctober3829]

Yes SN. A-gap pressure was a big factor in that a Week 12 game. Hopefully we also see some plays with the NASCAR line of Chandler and Chris Jones in the middle and Carter/Nink on the outsides to get pressure.

 

[DaughtersofDougMirabelli]

I'm not so sure. The two highest-PFF-graded Denver defenders from the first meeting - Miller and Vickerson - are on IR, and there's a good chance Harris and Wolfe don't play either. That's like a third of their D. Even if they get Bailey back, that's a lot of attrition.

 
Rodgers-Cromartie was also injured in that game, played only 27 snaps, and he'll be back at full strength. By PFF's grades Harris' worst game, and only red game (-1.0 or worse), of the year was against the Pats. He made a bad play on the Edelman TD, with a terrible tackle attempt. I don't think this one game is really telling of what will happen next week, though it will be beneficial for the Patriots to have Harris on the sidelines. 

 

[mauf]

The future of the Manning vs. Brady debate will be affected significantly by Sunday's game, perhaps more so than any other single game between the two.
 
Manning is likely to finish with better stats and more regular-season hardware (i.e., MVP awards) than Brady. Brady's case has always rested on the rings. If Brady finishes with three rings, and Manning wins two with different teams, that's going to resolve the debate in Manning's favor in the eyes of most folks outside New England. On the other hand, if Brady reaches a record sixth Super Bowl (even if he doesn't win a record-tying fourth), while Manning remains stuck on one ring, that's going to reinforce the impression that Brady was the better of the two when the chips were down.
 
All of which is kind of stupid, because even more so than most football games, I think this one will be won or lost in the trenches -- the team that opens holes for its RB and protects its QB better will win.

 

[DaughtersofDougMirabelli]

We went over most of the problems of PFF in the Colts thread, but here are their scores for the Broncos/Chargers game.
 

Broncos dominated the trenches. They gave Manning a good pocket and kept him upright, while consistently getting pressure on Rivers and stopping the run. 

 

[Eric Ampersand]

Against SD Denver pursued heavily to the run. I don't remember SD burning them with play flakes even once. I bet the Denver defense will play similarly next Sunday considering the Pat's run/pass ratio the last few weeks. I also bet we see play fakes on first down from Brady early in the game.

 

[bowiac]

The future of the Manning vs. Brady debate will be affected significantly by Sunday's game, perhaps more so than any other single game between the two.
 

While it matters, it's not clear to me it has any more impact than any other postseason matchup between them. The winner of the previous 3 matchups went on to win the Super Bowl. If Brady had won in 2006, and then beaten the Bears, it would be 4-0 in his favor. If Manning had won in 2003 or 2004 and gone on to win the Super Bowl, it would be 2-2 (or 3-1 in Manning's favor). They're all major inflection points.
 
It's notable that both the Broncos and Pats are likely to be underdogs vs. Seattle however. Maybe San Francisco too.

 

[Stitch01]

Assuming no catastrophic injuries this week, Denver will likely be favored over SF by less than a FG and +/- a pickem vs Seattle.  Pats would go off around 4.5 point dogs against Seattle and around FG dogs vs. SF.

 

[86spike]

Does not sound good for Harris;

http://blogs.denverpost.com/broncos/2014/01/13/broncos-fear-chris-harris-knee-injury-is-serious/25034/

 
If Harris doesn't play, it will be interesting to see how Del Rio lines up the secondary.
 
With current health (i.e. the team that started yesterday) Harris and DRC play the corners with Bailey as the nickel covering the slot.  Ihenacho and Adams are the starting safeties (Adams has played well this year, Ihenacho is a rookie who excels at run stopping and struggles in pass coverage).  The reserve CBs includes Kayvon Webster (rookie who Brady dismantled last time we played) and the afore-mentioned Old Man Jammer.  Tony Carter (shaky option - this is the guy who screwed up the punt in double OT against NE that led to the easy winning FG) was inactive yesterday, but may be active if Harris is out.  The Safeties on the bench are Omar Bolden (another mistake prone dude like Carter - he pulled the dumbass block-in-the-back that wasted Holliday's KO return yesterday) and David Bruton (mediocre overall, but not bad in coverage - he will sub in for Ihenacho on obvious passing plays).
 
So assuming Harris sits, does Denver keep the same scheme and just start one of Jammer, Webster or Carter on the corner opposite DRC?  Or do they move Bailey back out to the outside and use one of the other 3 at nickel?
 
Champ has had several weeks to play back into shape and I haven't heard any worries about his foot flaring up (although they may be keeping that quiet), so it seems like he could play the outside better than the bench options.  But does the NE receiving corps need the best two CBs covering the outside/deep routes?  There's certainly a case to be made for leaving Champ in the nickel to account for the slot routes, putting DRC on whomever is going deep (Amendola, Edelman, Dobson (if healthy) all take some turns outside), and letting the bench guy handle what's left.  Ihenacho will be out there a lot to try to stop the run, so safety help for passes may be scarce.
 
This is probably the biggest chess match that both coaching staffs will be working on this week.  Should be interesting to see who makes the better moves.

 

[RedOctober3829]

As much as I've said the Broncos are vulnerable through the air, are they just as vulnerable on the ground when it comes to stopping a power running game?

 

[lars10]

 
Point 1: I'm not going to sit here and let people claim I was trying to make an excuse for Denver.  I was not doing so.  I was pointing out the fact that they played sloppy in several instances just like SD did.  When someone says "I hate this type of justification" - I object because it is not any type of justification.  It is just discussing the facts of the game.  I'm done arguing this.  
 
Point 2: Harris on the field keeps Rivers' targets unavailable to him.  You don't think the choice of run/pass might be influenced by what SD was seeing in coverage?  Sure, Jammer being in isn't 100% of the reason for the passing success and the need to score quickly while behind late is definitely a factor, but I do think Denver took away open receivers in the first half and Harris is a big part of that (with DRC - who has been our best DB all year and Champ).  My point is: you cannot say "SD should have started throwing earlier!!!!" without taking into consideration the fact that Harris was out there in coverage for the first half.  Football is much more intricate than that.

So Harris being on the field covers every SD receiver...got it.  I know this is not what you're trying to say, but by this logic no one would throw against Tampa Bay ever.
 
I think one can very easily say that SD should have started throwing earlier.  Instead they decided to go for TOP and run.  It's not really debatable, if you look at the types of plays they ran in the first half you can see they were trying to establish the run.  I think SD starting to pass was coincidental to Harris being out and because they had to to try and tie the score.  I think you could argue that the success rate went up because Harris went out though.

 

[MarcSullivaFan]

As much as I've said the Broncos are vulnerable through the air, are they just as vulnerable on the ground when it comes to stopping a power running game?

They were top-10 in defensive rushing DVOA. They were tied for seventh in rushing yards against and yards per carry (3.9).

 

[Super Nomario]

As much as I've said the Broncos are vulnerable through the air, are they just as vulnerable on the ground when it comes to stopping a power running game?

I think it's unclear. Since Vickerson went on IR, they're allowing 4.2 YPC. A fair amount of that is QBs rushing:
 
  [tablegrid= Rushers against Denver since week 13 ]Player Att Yds Y/A TD   Ryan Mathews 34 153 4.50 1 View player » Jamaal Charles 19 93 4.89 1 View player » Danny Woodhead 18 58 3.22 0 View player » Terrelle Pryor 8 49 6.13 0 View player » Alex Smith 4 46 11.50 0 View player » Shonn Greene 9 46 5.11 2 View player » Chris Johnson 12 46 3.83 1 View player » Deji Karim 8 30 3.75 0 View player » Delano Johnson 12 29 2.42 0 View player » Jonathan Grimes 5 23 4.60 0 View player » Knile Davis 1 20 20.00 0 View player » Philip Rivers 6 19 3.17 0 View player » Ronnie Brown 4 12 3.00 0 View player » Rashad Jennings 4 9 2.25 0 View player » Darren McFadden 7 6 .86 0 View player » Matt Schaub 1 5 5.00 0 View player » Ryan Fitzpatrick 1 4 4.00 0 View player » Matt McCants 1 0 .00 0 View player » Dexter McCluster 1 0 .00 0 View player » Totals 155 648 4.18 5 0 [/tablegrid]
 
I think the Pats have to try running the ball, but I'm not sure whether it's going to work or not. This Denver defense is a puzzle to me; they look good at times but awful at others.

 

[86spike]

As much as I've said the Broncos are vulnerable through the air, are they just as vulnerable on the ground when it comes to stopping a power running game?

 
Denver started the year with a very stout run defense.
 
Kevin Vickerson and Derek Wolfe were lost to injuries and the run defense suffered a lot.
 
Late in the season (admittedly against some weak ass running attacks like Houston's 4th string and Oakland) the guys who replaced Vick and Wolfe (namely rookie Sylvester Williams, Terrence Knighton and newly-added Jerome Mincey) seem to have stepped up and stopped the bleeding.  Von Miller's injury means a lot of his snaps go to a combo of Robert Ayers, Nate Irving and Mincey - all of whom are arguably better at run stuffing than Von, if only slightly so.  Wolfe is still out sick (mystery seizures) but I guess it's possible he might be back this week.  Vickerson is gone for the year.
 
They looked pretty good against the SD run yesterday.

 

[Greg29fan]

Adam Schefter ‏@AdamSchefter52s
Broncos CB Chris Harris, one of Denver's top defensive players, tore his ACL and is out for season, via me and @Jeff_Legwold.