Boston’s taxing pursuit of Juan Soto

SemperFidelisSox

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May 25, 2008
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My theory:

Soto told Devers he got an offer from Sox. Devers told some teammates. It got around and some people jumped the gun thinking he signed. Passan checked with real sources and reported no deal yet.
 

John Marzano Olympic Hero

has fancy plans, and pants to match
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Which is what the Dodgers did. Which is what like 25 people on this board in the last 3-4 years have said they were doing. Focus on building up the farm system, get into a position where you can begin to compete / contend, then pounce on the elite FAs at the top of the market. It’s almost like they had a plan.
Yeah. It was fun having four shitty years of baseball that rocketed them down to fourth out of four teams in the region

4D chess! Brilliant plan!
 

NickEsasky

Please Hammer, Don't Hurt 'Em
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Jul 24, 2001
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Yeah. It was fun having four shitty years of baseball that rocketed them down to fourth out of four teams in the region

4D chess! Brilliant plan!
Of course it only works if you pony up more than the team who gets the young talent. They came up short with Yamamoto, let’s see if they can snag Soto. But being in the mix on a young talent is enough for 25 posters here.
 

cantor44

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Dec 23, 2020
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Which is what the Dodgers did. Which is what like 25 people on this board in the last 3-4 years have said they were doing. Focus on building up the farm system, get into a position where you can begin to compete / contend, then pounce on the elite FAs at the top of the market. It’s almost like they had a plan.
Yes, I do recognize that lots of folks on the board were saying as much, and recognize that I was more cynical about Henry.
Edit: though I also think the approach may be overly binary, and that very good players - the Johnny Damon's of the world - are still worth bidding for ...Look, the Sox may not get Soto. He's the only player who checks ALL the boxes. What then if you don't get him? There are other approaches along the continuum of spending on FAs that can build a winner, beyond exclusively bidding on young potential future HOF-ers.
 

cantor44

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Dec 23, 2020
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Casas 6th? Wilyer 7th, Story 8th, someone who can catch 9th?
I suspect Wilyer gone if Soto signed, as part of package for Crochet or other arm. And/or Yoshida gone, too ...
So maybe: C: Wong, 1B: Casas, 2B: Campbell, SS: Story, 3B: Devers, LF: Soto, CF: Duran, RF: Anthony ...DH:? Yoshida (or rotate DH and give Grissom a shot in regular line up, or acquire a RHH who can back up first base to DH?
Duran-Campbell-Soto-Devers-Anthony-DH/Yoshida/Grissom-Casas-Story-Wong
 

soxhop411

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Dec 4, 2009
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My theory:

Soto told Devers he got an offer from Sox. Devers told some teammates. It got around and some people jumped the gun thinking he signed. Passan checked with real sources and reported no deal yet.
The only thing he denied was that there was a deal agreed to. Passan did not refute that the reported offer was made
 

sezwho

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Yeah I’m not buying any of the spin if the don’t sign him. You either get the guy signed or you don’t. Almost don’t count.
Yeah, totally get that.

I’m just saying that on a personal level this whole things been performce art. That number would exceed the ‘performative’ threshold (for me).

Could still be 4D chess where they stay juuuuust out of the money to curry headlines and favor, but would seem less likely.

Ultimately you are right though, it’s Pass/Fail.

@NickEsasky I laughed.
 

loneredseat

New Member
Dec 8, 2023
239
Casas 6th? Wilyer 7th, Story 8th, someone who can catch 9th?
Since we're playing the "if everything goes right" game-
Teel and Mayer work their asses off over the winter and come banging the door down in the spring. We keep Abreu who has a season slightly better than last year and and who is still doesn't have the offensive numbers that the rest of the team does.
Get a couple pitchers...
 

sezwho

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Those were pitchers. Both of whom won World Series! And I don't know what tailspin you're talking about...after Beckett led us to the WS in 07 we won 95 games in 08&09 followed by 89 and 90 win in 10&11. And after Sale led us to the WS in 18 we made the ALCS in 21.

Also if we didn't trade Sale on the last year of his deal and he won a Cy Young for the Red Sox last year I think we make the playoffs and his contract doesn't seem quite so bad (despite all the fluky injuries).
I’m talking about the last five years and yes they are pitchers.

Until shown differently, I’ll believe the incarnation of ownership that includes private equity is not going to spend its way out of any significant headwinds.

I accept the critique of my analogy, but ultimately it’s meant to say I think Henry bought the Sox for passion AND money. How about Redbird? Not the same answer.

If you’re PE spending this little money it’s a bad investment. People hate you and boo you and call you liars. Even if the tourists come to the park you are missing real 360 revenue. Spend anywhere near to CBT and the wolves leave the door and you still FING bank.

However, I don’t think they go over it sustainably if his 50m goes poof in some black swan event. That’s why I’m out, because I can’t bear to watch 10 more years like (four of) the last five.
 

scottyno

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Dec 7, 2008
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Three last place years are mediocre now?

We’ve always been at war with Eurasia.
The last 3 seasons they finished 18th, tied for 19th and tied for 17th overall in wins while playing a tougher schedule than almost anyone. Even if you ignore that the 4th year in that subset they were really good yes that's by definition mediocre.

Somehow though the fact that 78 wins had them finish in 5th back to back years in a small subset of the league instead of the typical 3rd or 4th you would normally expect makes it a worse season to you.
 

mikcou

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The last 3 seasons they finished 18th, tied for 19th and tied for 17th overall in wins while playing a tougher schedule than almost anyone. Even if you ignore that the 4th year in that subset they were really good yes that's by definition mediocre.

Somehow though the fact that 78 wins had them finish in 5th back to back years in a small subset of the league instead of the typical 3rd or 4th you would normally expect makes it a worse season to you.
The yankees havent had a sub 80 win season in 30 years (had two in the early 90s). The Dodgers havent had a sub 80 win season since 2005 and you have to go back to the 90s to find the next one. For large market teams, 78 wins is and should be considered a shitty season. 2024 is arguably mediocre, but realistically id peg that line for large market teams at the mid 80s. Its pretty damn easy to get to 90 with a top 3 revenue base so long as ownership is interested and management competent.
 

John Marzano Olympic Hero

has fancy plans, and pants to match
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The last 3 seasons they finished 18th, tied for 19th and tied for 17th overall in wins while playing a tougher schedule than almost anyone. Even if you ignore that the 4th year in that subset they were really good yes that's by definition mediocre.

Somehow though the fact that 78 wins had them finish in 5th back to back years in a small subset of the league instead of the typical 3rd or 4th you would normally expect makes it a worse season to you.
You’re right. They’ve been awesome. I’m not sure what I was thinking!

Viva fifth place!
 

Quatchie

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Jul 23, 2009
88
I am a nobody- but the person who told me Theo was to talking to FSG again before Chaim was fired told me the Sox have no agreement with Soto and the process is a few weeks away from being decided. This is a nothing burger.
 

E5 Yaz

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I am a nobody- but the person who told me Theo was to talking to FSG again before Chaim was fired told me the Sox have no agreement with Soto and the process is a few weeks away from being decided. This is a nothing burger.
Did you hear it from the person, or their dog?
 

NickEsasky

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Jul 24, 2001
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Good for us the Red Sox have been shitty so that fits into your weird binary choice!

What a fun team!
The amount of copium on this board is off the charts.

“he’s too expensive and wouldn’t play well in Fenway anyway”
“We go aggressive on young generational talents. I mean we don’t get them but we try”
“All our prospects are the bestest and we’re going to win a home grown World Series”
“Finishing in last in the division means we played ok because of our division”
 

Auger34

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Apr 23, 2010
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The amount of copium on this board is off the charts.

“he’s too expensive and wouldn’t play well in Fenway anyway”
“We go aggressive on young generational talents. I mean we don’t get them but we try”
“All our prospects are the bestest and we’re going to win a home grown World Series”
“Finishing in last in the division means we played ok because of our division”
Dont forget that the entire plan was to not spend for 4 offseasons because they were waiting for Soto to make free agency. If our front office and ownership was able to tell the future like that I would have thought we’d have much more free agent steals
 

Auger34

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Apr 23, 2010
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Yes every team is either shitty or awesome, there's no in between
I get what you’re saying but they’ve been last place in their division 3 out of 4 years. Thats objectively bad. Even if the AL East is great
 

Cassvt2023

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Jan 17, 2023
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Unscientific study of current Soto odds:

Mets: 68%
Red Sox: 16%
All other teams: 12%
Yankees: 4%

talk amongst yourselves
 

RG33

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Nov 28, 2005
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Yeah. It was fun having four shitty years of baseball that rocketed them down to fourth out of four teams in the region

4D chess! Brilliant plan!
I’m not saying it was brilliant, and I’m certainly not saying it worked, I am just saying that it wasn’t “this ownership team sucks now after 4 world championships in 15 years and now are super cheap!”.

They pretty clearly changed course, and right or wrong, they had reasons. It wasn’t that Henry became the Big Bad Cheap Wolf.
 

jbupstate

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Dec 1, 2022
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I guess it is in the eye of the beholder. I think they were a mess, but it is probably more healthy to have an optimistic view.
They decided to stock the farm and not extend financially on a potential 3rd place finish. Farm is looking very good. Finances have been reset. Now it’s time to flex their financial strength and/or leverage assets in trades to move the process forward.

Seems like a great time to look for something positive. I’m glad they are in on Soto and if $600m isn’t enough I’ll put that on Soto making a personal choice… not on FSG.
 

JCizzle

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Dec 11, 2006
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They decided to stock the farm and not extend financially on a potential 3rd place finish. Farm is looking very good. Finances have been reset. Now it’s time to flex their financial strength and/or leverage assets in trades to move the process forward.

Seems like a great time to look for something positive. I’m glad they are in on Soto and if $600m isn’t enough I’ll put that on Soto making a personal choice… not on FSG.
Unless he goes for $650M. All in all, this team needs to truly throw down the gauntlet again at some point for a player above the Story/Yoshida caliber. Being kinda sorta close isn't good enough anymore. If he walks away from more money from us, then for sure - we did what we could.
 

BornToRun

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Jun 4, 2011
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Unless he goes for $650M. All in all, this team needs to truly throw down the gauntlet again at some point for a player above the Story/Yoshida caliber. Being kinda sorta close isn't good enough anymore. If he walks away from more money from us, then for sure - we did what we could.
The problem is I don’t think there’s a world where Steve Cohen allows himself to not be the guy making the highest offer. I think if Soto is going to sign with the Red Sox, it’ll have to mean him taking however much less than the Mets are offering. which is I why I still think he ends up a met but who knows, could obviously be wrong.
 

Patsfan1983

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Apr 30, 2011
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Then your accountant sucks.
His accountant is right and does not suck

signed a real tax accountant

80-90% of the time players use whatever firm the team uses, which the Yankees were PWC last I knew. Typically it’s a big four firm(PWC/Deloitte/KPMG/EY) or one of the two just outside that does it(BDO or RSM)
 
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jbupstate

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Unless he goes for $650M. All in all, this team needs to truly throw down the gauntlet again at some point for a player above the Story/Yoshida caliber. Being kinda sorta close isn't good enough anymore. If he walks away from more money from us, then for sure - we did what we could.
Everything we are being fed is the Mets are going to beat every offer. If the Sox offer $600m that absolutely (to me) shows they are committed to spend big… but only for a super young, elite player.
 

JCizzle

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Everything we are being fed is the Mets are going to beat every offer. If the Sox offer $600m that absolutely (to me) shows they are committed to spend big… but only for a super young, elite player.
If that’s the excuse, it will always be someone. Whether it’s the Mets, Yankees, Dodgers, Cubs, etc. going all out while we just try our darndest and aw shucks there’s other rich owners too.