Boston’s taxing pursuit of Juan Soto

[RedOctober3829]

Sean McAdam with the information on the Red Sox meeting with Juan Soto and Scott Boras last night. The meeting was informational in nature with the Red Sox leaning into the Dominican heritage within the history of the team and highlighting the young core about to break out. Soto wanted to hear about their commitment to winning and an overview of the team’s facilities. No money was discussed.

According to McAdam, Soto was impressed with the presentation.

The Red Sox met with free agent outfielder Juan Soto in southern California Thursday night, according to a source with knowledge of the get-together, in what was termed a “productive” first session.

Team president Sam Kennedy, chairman Tom Werner, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow and manager Alex Cora represented the Red Sox, who offered a formal presentation to Soto and his representatives, including Scott Boras, designed to introduce Soto to the team. The meeting lasted approximately three hours.

Soto was said to be impressed by the Red Sox’ presentation, which included a video taking note of the franchise’s history of star players from the Dominican Republic, Soto’s native country. The Red Sox laid out their plans for the future and highlighted the crop of soon-to-be-arriving top prospects while giving a detailed outline of ownership and Fenway Sports Group.


In turn, Soto wanted to know about the team’s commitment to winning, player evaluation methods, and Fenway Park and its facilities.

The Red Sox did not discuss money or term with Soto, as the meeting was largely introductory and informational in nature. Boston did not make a formal offer at this early stage of the superstar’s free agent process. Soto, 26, may be seeking a contract for longer than 10 years and the total value of his deal is expected to top $500 million, with some estimates pegged at equaling Shohei Ohtani’s landmark 10-year, $700 million contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers.

https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2024/11/juan-soto-red-sox-get-acquainted-in-productive-3-hour-socal-meeting.html

 

[sodenj5]

Ownership has been so frugal the last few years, I have almost zero faith they’re going to outbid the Mets or the Yankees in an open market.

While I believe that Soto wants to win and play for a winning team, I have a very hard time seeing him end up in Boston. These articles aren’t even getting me optimistic.

 

[jose melendez]

I desperately want Soto. I loved watching him in DC and was heartbroken when he ended up with the MFY. At his age and with his skill set, he is exactly the sort of guy you throw crazy money at. Even better, you can hide him in left field at Fenway, so I'd argue he's probably worth more to us than he is to other teams. Havin him and Denver back to back would be like Manny Papi redux. But this is going to come down to money flat out, and I find it literally inconceivable that the Red Sox will make the highest bid.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Ownership has been so frugal the last few years, I have almost zero faith they’re going to outbid the Mets or the Yankees in an open market.

While I believe that Soto wants to win and play for a winning team, I have a very hard time seeing him end up in Boston. These articles aren’t even getting me optimistic.

I also have zero faith that they can outbid the Mets or Yankees, but it has nothing to do with frugality. It has everything to do with those teams having deeper pockets. No matter what the Red Sox offer (x), one of those teams is very likely to counter with x+1. They have to be involved because they have to take a shot (and miracles happen). But nothing that's come out so far has raised my estimate of their chances of landing him.

 

[jose melendez]

I also have zero faith that they can outbid the Mets or Yankees, but it has nothing to do with frugality. It has everything to do with those teams having deeper pockets. No matter what the Red Sox offer (x), one of those teams is very likely to counter with x+1. They have to be involved because they have to take a shot (and miracles happen). But nothing that's come out so far has raised my estimate of their chances of landing him.

The argument that we could outbid is that we have shallower pockets but less payroll... I still don't see it though.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

The argument that we could outbid is that we have shallower pockets but less payroll... I still don't see it though.

Per Cot's, the Red Sox are at ~$163M in CBT payroll commitments next season, the Mets are at $168M. Somehow that $5M difference doesn't seem like it's significant enough to make a difference.

 

[Andy Merchant]

Sadly, don't see the Sox willing to spend the kind of money it would take to get the job done. He'll ultimately get enough to make what the Dodgers paid to Mookie look like a bargain.

 

[moondog80]

I guess maybe this is the normal process, but 3 hours? And they didn’t even exchange numbers? How long were they in before Soto started thinking “I really wish I could play with my phone right now”?

 

[BringBackMo]

If we are willing to accept the details of the reporting in every other aspect of McAdam’s article then we should probably be willing to accept that Soto was engaged and asked a number of specific questions about the team’s commitment to winning, player development systems, and Fenway Park facilities. It sounds like it was a thorough and professional presentation that was appreciated by Soto and his representatives.

 

[jwbasham84]

As a person who holds many meetings each week, a meeting can go long because of the presenter or because an engaged audience asks lots of questions and delves into topics that add length to the meeting. Based on reporting, it appears Soto was engaged and had genuine questions. That makes a 3 hour meeting seem like a positive sign. Of course we still need to bring a Brinks truck to the next meeting but at least he was open to the idea of the Red Sox.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

The argument that we could outbid is that we have shallower pockets but less payroll... I still don't see it though.

Yeah it's not happening. They can show all the interest in Soto they please, ownership will not spend the type of money Soto will command. This is all eyewash. I believe the INTEREST is genuine, but not the commitment.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Any chance of him coming here will be predicated on the fact that he wants to come. I have no issue with them focusing on the “why come to Boston” aspect. At some point, they’ll have to pony up an offer that will make JH squirm but we know the Yankees and Mets will have zero issues matching or exceeding whatever we offer.

 

[OCD SS]

These aren’t the MFY of Sias. Under Hal the Yankees spending has slipped compared to the days of old, and frankly other than Cole they haven’t been blowing anyone out of the market. Even their resigning of Judge required him to take less money than was on the table from the Giants. Hal and JWH seem to have aligned their spending to profit in recent years.

Cohen is another story…

 

[BaseballJones]

I refuse to get excited about Soto.

Yeah it's not happening. They can show all the interest in Soto they please, ownership will not spend the type of money Soto will command. This is all eyewash. I believe the INTEREST is genuine, but not the commitment.

Exactly. They HAVE to show some genuine interest, and who wouldn't be interested in signing Soto? Every team in the world would love to have Juan Soto. It's just that when push comes to shove, and the Mets and Yankees open up their checkbook, Henry et al will reach a point where they say, "nope, I'm out...even though we really, really want Soto, and are doing all within our power to sign him, we don't have unlimited funds like these other teams do."

Their words will be something very, very close to that.

 

[DLowe 04 Unsung Hero]

I know pitching is our biggest need, and I think Fried is a perfect fit. That said, I want Soto bad. It's very rare for a free agent this good and this young to be available. This is a generational move. We have enough young talent to surround him with that we can keep our payroll "reasonable". This also would make trading Abreu even easier. Maybe it's for Crochet, maybe Seattle decides they need offense bad enough to talk one of their young starters. Either way, it gives us a lot of options. Sign Soto and Fried, and trade Abreu + for more pitching and call it an offseason.

 

[SouthernBoSox]

I really just think it comes down to the Mets and if they give the godfather.

I think gonna take 600+mm to get him. We’ll see.

 

[Otis Foster]

I refuse to get excited about Soto.


Exactly. They HAVE to show some genuine interest, and who wouldn't be interested in signing Soto? Every team in the world would love to have Juan Soto. It's just that when push comes to shove, and the Mets and Yankees open up their checkbook, Henry et al will reach a point where they say, "nope, I'm out...even though we really, really want Soto, and are doing all within our power to sign him, we don't have unlimited funds like these other teams do."

Their words will be something very, very close to that.

I wish I thought otherwise but I don't. (Confusing double negative?) The NY teams won't absorb the negative pr that comes with allowing a superstar to leave that market, let alone to go to Boston. They'll blow through layers of luxury tax and deal with the consequences later.

Besides, Randy Levine has a note from his cardiologist that it would be very bad for Randy's ticker if the Sox signed Soto. That alone might be sufficient for JH to throw caution to the wind when he makes his offer.

 

[SouthernBoSox]

I wish I thought otherwise but I don't. (Confusing double negative?) The NY teams won't absorb the negative pr that comes with allowing a superstar to leave that market, let alone to go to Boston. They'll blow through layers of luxury tax and deal with the consequences later.

Besides, Randy Levine has a note from his cardiologist that it would be very bad for Randy's ticker if the Sox signed Soto. That alone might be sufficient for JH to throw caution to the wind when he makes his offer.

I really do not think this is true of the Yankees. They have some real payroll issues. It’s incredibly challenging to carry 3 plus 35mm AAV (Soto, Judge, Cole). It gonna shake out around 120mm AAV for just those three.

There are limits. You gotta be able to get under the tax every now and then.

 

[sezwho]

At this time next year there will be a weakly sourced article that the Sox ‘were right there’ with $575 (assuming the win is 600)….just like the fantasy YY pursuit. Sure the made a 300m offer, what a bunch of $&@@.

Really don’t get the pro forma action here, but maybe they see something else. Maybe they are signaling something to other FAs that they aren’t a pitiful bunch of thieves? Not sure it will work or matter.

Go back to the kiddy pool on your yacht Henry, this water too deep for you.

 

[AlNipper49]

I really just think it comes down to the Mets and if they give the godfather.

I think gonna take 600+mm to get him. We’ll see.

600/12 would be the starting bid I’d have to assume.

 

[Max Power]

I really do not think this is true of the Yankees. They have some real payroll issues. It’s incredibly challenging to carry 3 plus 35mm AAV (Soto, Judge, Cole). It gonna shake out around 120mm AAV for just those three.

There are limits. You gotta be able to get under the tax every now and then.

Don't forget Rodon and Stanton. There isn't really a path for the Yankees to reset the luxury tax penalties until 2028.

 

[SouthernBoSox]

At this time next year there will be a weakly sourced article that the Sox ‘were right there’ with $575 (assuming the win is 600)….just like the fantasy YY pursuit. Sure the made a 300m offer, what a bunch of $&@@.

Really don’t get the pro forma action here, but maybe they see something else. Maybe they are signaling something to other FAs that they aren’t a pitiful bunch of thieves? Not sure it will work or matter.

Go back to the kiddy pool on your yacht Henry, this water too deep for you.

There were like ZERO local reporters who believed in the Yamamoto pursuit. Every single one said they weren’t real players.

This is much different

 

[YTF]

I guess maybe this is the normal process, but 3 hours? And they didn’t even exchange numbers? How long were they in before Soto started thinking “I really wish I could play with my phone right now”?

IMO exchanging specific numbers at this point serves no purpose until the player indicates to the teams that he's interested in that they are ready to move forward. I also take that they didn't talk numbers with a grain of salt. I'm sure going into meetings that Boras has a ballpark number that both sides will eventually work from.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

There were like ZERO local reporters who believed in the Yamamoto pursuit. Every single one said they weren’t real players.

This is much different

There is no reason to think ownership has changed financial tactics since 2020 unless and until they actually lay out the money.

In God We Trust, all others must pay cash.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

Sadly, don't see the Sox willing to spend the kind of money it would take to get the job done. He'll ultimately get enough to make what the Dodgers paid to Mookie look like a bargain.

Not arguing the dollar amounts, which of course have relevancy and I'm not trying to pretend they don't. However I will say, player to player, I'd be far more likely to bet on Soto's ages 33-40 seasons than Mookie's 33-40 seasons (technically his deal with the Dodgers goes through age 39). Just in that - in terms of hitting a baseball - I think that 6'2" and 225 is going to be a better bet than 5'9" and 180. Not a shot at all toward Mookie, to be clear. And I don't want to rehash the Mookie deal, but I can see why a team would bet on Soto's build over the long term more than Mookie's.

(And I don't think the Red Sox are going to land Soto, to be clear.)

FWIW, I'd have made the same argument about Bogaerts build too, while of course understanding that as much as I adore Xander there is a sizable gulf between he and Mookie / Soto.

 

[SouthernBoSox]

There is no reason to think ownership has changed financial tactics since 2020 unless and until they actually lay out the money.

In God We Trust, all others must pay cash.

100%. Put up or shut up. It is disingenuous though to not acknowledge how different the reporting is going into this offseason vs last.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

100%. Put up or shut up. It is disingenuous though to not acknowledge how different the reporting is going into this offseason vs last.

I will readily acknowledge the difference in reporting, but that will make zero difference in our skepticism towards ownership. Nor should it.

Until they ACTUALLY spend real money on a free agent superstar, then all posturing on their part and the reporting of it should be viewed with extreme prejudice.

 

[Fishy1]

Yeah, I'm in the I'll believe it when I see it camp, but there is precedent for the Sox laying out major cash in the last few years, AND for a player like Soto: 10/315 million for Devers, signing a player going into his age 27 season for the next decade. That was the first time we'd done that sort of contract since, I don't know, Manny? It's actually abnormal, IMO.

BUT the reason I'm deeply skeptical is the MO has been to sign mid-tier free agents to contracts around 100 million. And that approach has treated them fairly well. Even the super big ones tend to happen after a "disappointment": IIRC Manny was the consolation prize when the Sox lost the Arod sweepstakes?)

The last time the Sox led the league in spending was 2019. The biggest contract they had on the books was 7/217 million for Price (which is a huge, huge contract, but not quite on the same order of magnitude as the Devers deal). Everything else was sub 100 million dollars, or weirdly constructed, like Pedroia's contract. Shorter commitments, but big dollars.

Which is to say that the Sox do make these sort of commitments, occasionally, but that Soto would be on another level.

There isn't a similar comp here to Manny-as-a-consolation-prize. Soto is the youngest and best free agent. There's other good players -- Bregman, for example -- but he's thirty and his BB rate plummeted this last year and his elbow is fucked up. I doubt the Sox are looking to do Story 2.0 (though Bregman is still a better hitter than Story was when he signed him).

 

[lexrageorge]

Boras wouldn’t allow the meeting to happen unless the Sox signaled some indication they were going to offer in the ballpark. Still have the problem that the NY teams will always outbid the Sox, but that is unavoidable. And not easily solved either.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Soto is 26 and coming off a 7.9 WAR season. He's going to get AT LEAST 400 million. Never have the Sox been close to giving out that kind of deal. They'd rather pay $140 million for a Story and get nothing then pay $400-$500 million for a Soto type and risk getting "only" $350 million of value.

Enjoy the reports but there's good reason to think nothing will come of this.

 

[lexrageorge]

Soto is 26 and coming off a 7.9 WAR season. He's going to get AT LEAST 400 million. Never have the Sox been close to giving out that kind of deal. They'd rather pay $140 million for a Story and get nothing then pay $400-$500 million for a Soto type and risk getting "only" $350 million of value.

Enjoy the reports but there's good reason to think nothing will come of this.

Then Boras would have vetoed the meeting.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Then Boras would have vetoed the meeting.

Boras is using the Sox to show the Mets/Yankees that there are other teams interested. That will help drive up the price. It's only 3 hours of his time, that's well worth spooking the Mets into making a crazy offer....one the Sox were never going to come close to making.

I'm sorry to be the one to piss in this particular punchbowl, but people are essentially wishcasting the Sox to radically change course from a path they've been on for more than 5 years by now. They simply aren't going to pony up for a $400 million+ contract.

 

[radsoxfan]

I have to imagine this is mostly for show and there is zero chance they outbid the highest bidder. And there is likely zero chance Soto takes a discount to sign with the Red Sox.

While it would be fun to get Soto and obviously help next year's team, I'd probably prefer they just spend whatever they can on pitching.

 

[mikcou]

Then Boras would have vetoed the meeting.

Absolutely not. Boras is all about having as many possible bidders involved (or at least the appearance thereof). Dismissing a large market team because between them the bid isnt going to be sufficient is just not at all in line with Boras's tactics from the past 25 years. He keeps the appearances of as many bidders as possible. Having the meetings supports that even if the principals know that is not going to be the landing spot. On the flip side, Red Sox management has every reason to want these meetings publicly reported to at least cover the we tried angle with the small chance that maybe they can figure something out with the player.

 

[Bread of Yaz]

600/12 would be the starting bid I’d have to assume.

Yes. As crazy as this may strike some, $47M for 15 years comes to $705M and beats the nominal value of the Ohtani contract.

 

[flredsoxfan]

I have absolutely no idea what the final price will be for Soto but it's pretty easy to assume it will be at least $50M AAV for a multiyear contract - whether it's 10 or 12 probably doesn't matter with the opt outs that will probably be included. Quite frankly - we are only a few years off from losing the best player Boston ever developed and we probably could have had him for under $400M for 12 years which I contend would have been a better deal. I have zero confidence that management will have the staying power for even a small bidding war. I still think the Red Sox are just a line item in a massive spread sheet for the Fenway Sports Group.

 

[chawson]

I'm continuing to feel optimistic that Soto will sign with the Red Sox.

Part of the reason is that he'd get to be the guy. We've read so many reports that Devers doesn't have that personality, and I doubt he'd be threatened by it. There are the marketing opportunities, but also the broader legacy stuff that's hard to put a price on.

The Mets will be tough to beat, but Lindor is most certainly the guy there.

 

[FisksFinger]

Maybe, just maybe, this will be a David Price type situation.

Reading the comments about how they screwed up with Mookie (would have cost less and had equal if not higher value), makes me wonder if this is akin to making up for losing Lester when they signed Price.

 

[BaseballJones]

I have no doubt that the Sox' interest is real and authentic. I also have no doubt that they will make Soto a humongous offer.

I also have no doubt that it will not be enough and that he will not end up on the Red Sox.

 

[Mugsy's Jock]

First off, I pine for the Sox to sign Juan Soto. The team looks so much better, and is so much more essential, if they have a no-doubt-about-it inner circle Hall of Famer in the line-up... not "just" an excellent repeat All-Star like Devers. [No knock at Raffy -- love you!]

That said, it's simply not going to happen if Soto insists on getting every last dollar. It's a fever dream that maybe, just maybe, the Red Sox could outbid the MFY. I could see the Steinbrenners reaching a point of no return. It would hurt, and run counter to what we've seen from FSG since Mookie left, but the Red Sox can outbid the MFY. However, they'll never outbid Steve Cohen.

So it comes down to whether Soto is REALLY interested in the Sox' commitment to win as a crucial factor. If so, he wouldn't drive the price to the last dollar in Cohen's bank account and, as importantly, he won't allow Boras to play this out until March. If Soto wants to play on a team with an elite FA like Fried or Tanner Scott, he can't wait until they're off the market.

I'm not expecting Soto to accept anything less than 600M, with no deferrals. Nor should he. But if he's fine with, say, 610M and doesn't need it to be 625M, he can put his money where his mouth is and say yes to the dress.

 

[moondog80]

The difference between now and 5 years ago is that now the Sox have a flow of young, cheap players ready to surround a guy like Soto. That doesn't mean they will get him -- the Mets and Yankees have a lot of money and motivation too, and only one team can get Soto. It doesn't mean the others are "cheap". But knowing that going after him and not getting him will be a worse PR move than not trying at all, there is no chance they are doing this just for show.

 

[cantor44]

I think it's possible Sox ownership is now willing to spend (I mean, the proof will be in the pudding, but it's possible). But even if they DO spend, I don't think they are getting Soto. They simply won't outbid NYY/NYM/LAD. Remember, even in the fifteen + years the team was top 3 in payroll, even THEN they never outbid NYY for a premiere FA that both teams wanted (Texiera, El Duqué). They signed guys who the Yankees weren't in on for whatever reason (Manny, Damon), or traded for and then extended guys (Pedro, Beckett). Maybe they beat the Yanks out for Schilling, I don't remember? My sense is the Red Sox will spend along the lines of Fried, Scott, Hernandez, but will have a hard time winning an auction for Soto.

(grumble ...all the more reason they should have done everything in their power to extend Mookie when they had exclusive access ...goddamn, the worst...)

 

[tims4wins]

I think it's possible Sox ownership is now willing to spend (I mean, the proof will be in the pudding, but it's possible). But even if they DO spend, I don't think they are getting Soto. They simply won't outbid NYY/NYM/LAD. Remember, even in the fifteen + years the team was top 3 in payroll, even THEN they never outbid NYY for a premiere FA that both teams wanted (Texiera, El Duqué). They signed guys who the Yankees weren't in on for whatever reason (Manny, Damon), or traded for and then extended guys (Pedro, Beckett). Maybe they beat the Yanks out for Schilling, I don't remember? My sense is the Red Sox will spend along the lines of Fried, Scott, Hernandez, but will have a hard time winning an auction for Soto.

(grumble ...all the more reason they should have done everything in their power to extend Mookie when they had exclusive access ...goddamn, the worst...)

Schilling was a trade

 

[cantor44]

Schilling was a trade

that's right - another trade and extend? I'm just remember the Thanksgiving Theo and Hoyer had with him - what was that about - agreeing on an extension before the trade was accepted?

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

that's right - another trade and extend? I'm just remember the Thanksgiving Theo and Hoyer had with him - what was that about - agreeing on an extension before the trade was accepted?

He had a full no trade, the Sox had to convince him to waive it (and the extension was obviously a big part of that).

 

[OCD SS]

Boras wouldn’t allow the meeting to happen unless the Sox signaled some indication they were going to offer in the ballpark. Still have the problem that the NY teams will always outbid the Sox, but that is unavoidable. And not easily solved either.

It’s very easily solved: they can simply offer more money.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

It’s very easily solved: they can simply offer more money.

Exactly. And that is exactly what they have not done to this point since 2019. Who knows, maybe they'll suddenly change course, but I wouldn't count on it.

 

[jcd0805]

I desperately want Soto. I loved watching him in DC and was heartbroken when he ended up with the MFY. At his age and with his skill set, he is exactly the sort of guy you throw crazy money at. Even better, you can hide him in left field at Fenway, so I'd argue he's probably worth more to us than he is to other teams. Havin him and Denver back to back would be like Manny Papi redux. But this is going to come down to money flat out, and I find it literally inconceivable that the Red Sox will make the highest bid.

Ditto. He's a fabulous player who is also fun, loved him in DC and will adore it if he ends up on the Sox.

 

[Sam Ray Not]

So how would the handedness issue shake out if we (miraculously) landed Soto? Almost all the core hitters would be lefties — Soto, Raffy, Duran, Casas, Abreu, Yoshida — with Mayer and Teel coming down the pipe. Re-sign O'Neill? Trade one or more of Casas/Duran/Abreu? Hope that some combo of Rafaela, Grissom, and Kristian Campbell pop?

 

[simplicio]

Soto hit LHP to a .966 OPS last year. Why is it a problem?