Boston’s taxing pursuit of Juan Soto is over. (Mets)

YTF

Member
SoSH Member
I think at this point it’s Monday. No way they drop the news today during an NFL Sunday. Maybe late tonight so it’s breaking news Monday morning.
IMO if when to drop the news has any bearing on things, this is the best time to drop it. No sport draws eyes like the NFL and this is huge news that will be discussed and possibly bring eyes over to MLB Network for more info on a day when many folks have the day off. Anyone forced to watch Jets vs Dolphins might be thankful for the distraction. ;)
 

Jimbodandy

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 31, 2006
13,142
around the way
NGL I get a chuckle out of people wishing that Soto goes to anyone but the Yankees if it's not Boston. As long as we have a mid market payroll and are only in on tier 3 players and are cannibalizing our farm system to marginally improve our pitching staff, we're not competing with the Yankees anymore. We're hoping to squeeze into an expanded playoff group and wishing on a crapload of career years, miracle health, and a bunch of coin flips to go our way for a longshot chance at a title.
 

radsoxfan

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 9, 2009
14,914
I hear what @radsoxfan is saying. And while it would be really exciting to get Soto, I’d also be pretty excited if they signed Fried, used their resources down the road to sign longer-term whichever of their young players pop, and trade off their surplus positional players for more pitching.
Don't get me wrong, if we do land Soto I would do my best to rationalize it, appreciate the short term benefits, and be glad ownership is at least spending again.

But if the Yankees overpay the guy by 200M, it's not the end of the world. It may in fact be a very good thing for the Red Sox long term.
 

catomatic

thinks gen turgidson is super mean!!!
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
3,778
Park Slope, Brooklyn
Don't get me wrong, if we do land Soto I would do my best to rationalize it, appreciate the short term benefits, and be glad ownership is at least spending again.

But if the Yankees overpay the guy by 200M, it's not the end of the world. It may in fact be a very good thing for the Red Sox long term.
Forgive me for having lost track of this piece — because I’m pretty sure it’s upthread — but if Soto becomes a Yankee at $750M, what is the actual price of that contract to them? Do they pay something like an additional 80% of the contract itself in LT penalties? Because I think I’d be okay with that.
 

Timduhda

New Member
Feb 14, 2015
50
LOL…oh, okay. He likes having a guy hit behind him who can’t hit in the playoffs. Got it. Right.
Regardless of how Judge has hit in the playoffs, i’m pretty sure he would be great to hit in front of. He has only averaged .49-112-.299 the last 4 years. Soto/Judge in the top,half of a lineup really helps a team get to the playoffs, where anything can happen.
I am not a NYY lover by any means, but can honestly say Soto has a point. I don’t think Boras/Soto used the Sox here, given the Dominican ties, but maybe the price just got too expensive (if these reports are true).
 

54thMA

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 15, 2012
10,320
Westwood MA
This is pretty much where I am at...at those terms, if we don't get him, I won't be devastated. Assuming of course that we do turn around and spend significant money elsewhere. Despite the risk, I would rather they pump some money into Fried and another FA or two. Prefer that route over the trading Casas and others for SP.
Yup, me too..........if the RS are truly "out" at this point and it's down to the Yankees and the Mets, then time for plan B, go sign another bat and some pitching.

If it's the Mets, now you're competing with the Yankees for another bat and some pitching.

And I'd rather they sign free agents than trade away talent, we'll see what happens.
 

simplicio

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 11, 2012
9,960
Forgive me for having lost track of this piece — because I’m pretty sure it’s upthread — but if Soto becomes a Yankee at $750M, what is the actual price of that contract to them? Do they pay something like an additional 80% of the contract itself in LT penalties? Because I think I’d be okay with that.
https://www.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/competitive-balance-tax

The Yankees are a third time payer and went over the highest level this year, so 50% on everything above $241m, plus 12% above $261m, 45% above $281m, 60% above $301m. Cot's currently projects them at $231.6m.
 

iddoc

New Member
Nov 17, 2006
203
I hear what @radsoxfan is saying. And while it would be really exciting to get Soto, I’d also be pretty excited if they signed Fried, used their resources down the road to sign longer-term whichever of their young players pop, and trade off their surplus positional players for more pitching.
This is where I’m at as well. Fried and more bullpen help would be fine with me.
 

pdaj

Fantasy Maven
SoSH Member
Dec 15, 2002
3,430
From Springfield to Providence
You have to give Soto a lot of credit. Getting paid 700-750 million to hit in front of your team's best player and leader, knowing that the buck stops with him and not you? Genius.
 

Quatchie

New Member
Jul 23, 2009
112
Serious question, if Soto gets 800. Who would be the next logical FA to even come close to that? If he gets 800, that number might stand for a long, long time to come.
 

joe dokes

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
33,308
This is where I’m at as well. Fried and more bullpen help would be fine with me.
I dont think not getting Soto, suddenly means they are going to go big on Fried (or at least they wont go long on him; ), who remains a pitcher on the wrong side of 30.
 

BaseballJones

slappy happy
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
27,599
Forgive me for having lost track of this piece — because I’m pretty sure it’s upthread — but if Soto becomes a Yankee at $750M, what is the actual price of that contract to them? Do they pay something like an additional 80% of the contract itself in LT penalties? Because I think I’d be okay with that.
And as a reminder, if the Yankees sign him, it doesn’t improve their team one iota from last year.
 

catomatic

thinks gen turgidson is super mean!!!
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
3,778
Park Slope, Brooklyn
https://www.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/competitive-balance-tax

The Yankees are a third time payer and went over the highest level this year, so 50% on everything above $241m, plus 12% above $261m, 45% above $281m, 60% above $301m. Cot's currently projects them at $231.6m.
Thanks much. Seems like Soto would vault them quickly past the $241M mark, and that it would be very difficult for them to stay under the $281M mark — so in addition to 50% on that $40M margin, they would thus be subject to 45% on everything beyond that $281M.

Some consolation to be found, there. Hal on the Deegan throwing millions out the car window is a nice image. Be a good neighborhood for those bills to land in, as well.
 

Yelling At Clouds

Post-darwinian
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
4,112
I dont think not getting Soto, suddenly means they are going to go big on Fried (or at least they wont go long on him; ), who remains a pitcher on the wrong side of 30.
Right, the only two top-of-market FA SPs Henry has ever signed were Lackey and Price, who were both 30 at the time of their signings. A Crochet trade (plus extension, we presume) would be more consistent with moves like Beckett, Sale, and Porcello. (Regardless of my thoughts on the issue!)

For the record: Fried turns 31 in a couple of weeks. Burnes won't turn 31 until next October.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 13, 2021
15,647
Don't get me wrong, if we do land Soto I would do my best to rationalize it, appreciate the short term benefits, and be glad ownership is at least spending again.

But if the Yankees overpay the guy by 200M, it's not the end of the world. It may in fact be a very good thing for the Red Sox long term.
Completely agree- I guess my only concern is that pivoting to give $200M+ to Burnes / Fried (which they any not even be able to do, depending on who else is bidding) is, best case, likely to result in a Price/Sale type situation 5-6 years down the road. As long as we get a ring or two in between…
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
49,799
Right, the only two top-of-market FA SPs Henry has ever signed were Lackey and Price, who were both 30 at the time of their signings. A Crochet trade (plus extension, we presume) would be more consistent with moves like Beckett, Sale, and Porcello. (Regardless of my thoughts on the issue!)

For the record: Fried turns 31 in a couple of weeks. Burnes won't turn 31 until next October.
It’s definitely an interesting discussion because the “value” in giving these guys market contracts won’t be great and they, of course, would still have to prevail in a competitive bidding environment.

But if Yankees get Soto and Fried/Burnes go elsewhere, the most of the fan base won’t be pleased and it will reinforce pervasive narratives that currently exist.

There is definitely some elevated pressure on the front office to do something meaningful.
 

YTF

Member
SoSH Member
Right, the only two top-of-market FA SPs Henry has ever signed were Lackey and Price, who were both 30 at the time of their signings. A Crochet trade (plus extension, we presume) would be more consistent with moves like Beckett, Sale, and Porcello. (Regardless of my thoughts on the issue!)

For the record: Fried turns 31 in a couple of weeks. Burnes won't turn 31 until next October.
I know we're trying to ignore him, but isn't that Curt Schilling over there in the corner waving hi?

Edited...As others have pointed out, that was a trade. The legendary Thanksgiving gathering had me misremembering that this was a FA signing.
 
Last edited:

Yelling At Clouds

Post-darwinian
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
4,112
I know we're trying to ignore him, but isn't that Curt Schilling over there in the corner waving hi?
Another trade example, sure. Unless you're talking about re-signing him to a one-year, $8m deal after 2007? Wouldn't call that "top-of-market," but ymmv, I guess.
 

bsj

Renegade Crazed Genius
SoSH Member
Dec 6, 2003
22,974
Central NJ SoSH Chapter
FWIW, i think a lot of people are devaluing the experience of living in NYC as a Dominican. The Dominican culture in NYC is massive, especially Queens. Direct flights out of NYC to Santiago.

I hate NYC and think its gross, but I could see someone wanting to stay connected to that culture. I think thats been undervalued all along.
 

sodenj5

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
6,776
CT
Roman Anthony?
We kind of discussed this in another thread, but realistically, its probably someone in the minors or just coming to the majors now.

Anthony has "the pedigree" to become a 1%'er in terms of pay and production, but he also needs to realize 100% of his potential and a lot can change between now and 7 or 8 years from now.

I think people are discounting how rare it is for someone like Soto to become a true free agent at 26.
 

simplicio

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 11, 2012
9,960
Thanks much. Seems like Soto would vault them quickly past the $241M mark, and that it would be very difficult for them to stay under the $281M mark — so in addition to 50% on that $40M margin, they would thus be subject to 45% on everything beyond that $281M.

Some consolation to be found, there. Hal on the Deegan throwing millions out the car window is a nice image. Be a good neighborhood for those bills to land in, as well.
Yeah so a Soto contract right now at $50m would cost them about $72.5m in actual dollars next year, plus every dollar of the next $20m they spend would cost $1.95, and above that $2.10.
 

joe dokes

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
33,308
But if Yankees get Soto and Fried/Burnes go elsewhere, the most of the fan base won’t be pleased and it will reinforce pervasive narratives that currently exist.
It may turn out the Breslow is bad at his job, or the FO is handcuffing him. But I hope they dont make moves to counter pervasive narratives.
 

SouthernBoSox

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 23, 2005
12,660
Stats is on SoxProspects and BlueSky saying it’s all but over based on what he’s heard. Which is the first substantial update from him since the LA meeting weeks ago.
 

barclay

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 27, 2006
2,014
It’s definitely an interesting discussion because the “value” in giving these guys market contracts won’t be great and they, of course, would still have to prevail in a competitive bidding environment.

But if Yankees get Soto and Fried/Burnes go elsewhere, the most of the fan base won’t be pleased and it will reinforce pervasive narratives that currently exist.

There is definitely some elevated pressure on the front office to do something meaningful.
Which in my mind means whatever they do they will probably have to overpay. Even so -- if (for example) they traded Abreu/Crawford for Crochet and signed Burnes and one of Yates/Scott, that team (along with Anthony and Campbell meeting expectations) would be fantastic. Meanwhile the Yanks, who will spend 700 million only to maintain their status quo, will be faced with a 33 year old Judge (in April), who is soon to be a DH (with Soto also being a DH down the road) and a budget that will never be under the tax. We, on the other hand, will have some financial flexibility down the road with many promising kids yet to mature. I prefer that scenario.
 

Reggie's Racquet

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2009
7,857
Florida/Montana
We kind of discussed this in another thread, but realistically, its probably someone in the minors or just coming to the majors now.

Anthony has "the pedigree" to become a 1%'er in terms of pay and production, but he also needs to realize 100% of his potential and a lot can change between now and 7 or 8 years from now.

I think people are discounting how rare it is for someone like Soto to become a true free agent at 26.
Agreed. I would like them to sign Soto but if overpaying hamstrings them a few years from now in buying out arb years and extending some of their young talented players that is concerning.
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
49,799
It may turn out the Breslow is bad at his job, or the FO is handcuffing him. But I hope they dont make moves to counter pervasive narratives.
Front offices do this all the time in sports though. Fair or not, there is elevated pressure from Red Sox fans to make a “splash”; in whatever form that takes.
 

SouthernBoSox

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 23, 2005
12,660
Why’s everyone so pessimistic this morning? Based on what was said by that BostonStrong Twitter account that is run by some nobody?
Stats is throwing a ton of cold water. Says he spoke with team rep for the first time since they met with Soto in LA, and that it’s basically over at this point as of this morning.
 

TrotNixonRing

Sally Field
SoSH Member
Jul 28, 2023
1,248
Stats is on SoxProspects and BlueSky saying it’s all but over based on what he’s heard. Which is the first substantial update from him since the LA meeting weeks ago.
so piecing everything together, seems like Sox made a serious push but bowed out at around 700M? Seems reasonable and as others are pointing out, also seems like this might be a blessing in disguise

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winner's_curse
 

Max Power

thai good. you like shirt?
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2005
9,005
Boston, MA
so piecing everything together, seems like Sox made a serious push but bowed out at around 700M? Seems reasonable and as others are pointing out, also seems like this might be a blessing in disguise

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winner's_curse
It seems more that Soto wants to stay in New York. He would have been happy to come to Boston if the Red Sox were the only ones offering $700 million, but once the Yankees and Mets got there, his attention turned to them. When this entire process started, I had the Mets at 50%, the Yankees at 49%, and the field at 1% to sign him. That's still where I'm at.

I could be convinced on Teoscar as an upgrade to the lineup, but no other position player free agents strike me as worth bringing in. If Soto stays in New York, then I'd still like to see Fried and a bullpen piece acquired. Maybe there's a trade for a bat out there.
 

Van Everyman

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2009
29,337
Newton
The oscillation between irrational exuberance and relentless pessimism on this board is giving me 2003–2004 flashbacks.


Cohen must know he’s getting played here. Wonder if Mets drop out at some point soon. Sox too.
Again: this is Boras’s MO when it comes to the steering his client to a preferred location. This is straight out of the Teixeira negotiation playbook. If the Sox believe for one second that their time is being wasted, they will drop out. I don’t expect Henry to have forgotten that wasted plane ride.
https://bsky.app/profile/redsoxstats.bsky.social/post/3lcslwuzt7w2w
Feels like the end of Old Yeller and the Red Sox are the dog with rabies.
Stats is on SoxProspects and BlueSky saying it’s all but over based on what he’s heard. Which is the first substantial update from him since the LA meeting weeks ago.
What’s the Sox Prospects quote?
 

Alex18

Secret Krampus
May 2, 2012
190
Portland Maine
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2024/12/08/sports/red-sox-max-fried-corbin-burnes/
The oscillation between irrational exuberance and relentless pessimism on this board is giving me 2003–2004 flashbacks.



Again: this is Boras’s MO when it comes to the steering his client to a preferred location. This is straight out of the Teixeira negotiation playbook. If the Sox believe for one second that their time is being wasted, they will drop out. I don’t expect Henry to have forgotten that wasted plane ride.



What’s the Sox Prospects quote?
“Yeah, no one said they were told they were out, but multiple people think he's going to end up in NY one way or another.”
 

SouthernBoSox

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 23, 2005
12,660
The oscillation between irrational exuberance and relentless pessimism on this board is giving me 2003–2004 flashbacks.



Again: this is Boras’s MO when it comes to the steering his client to a preferred location. This is straight out of the Teixeira negotiation playbook. If the Sox believe for one second that their time is being wasted, they will drop out. I don’t expect Henry to have forgotten that wasted plane ride.



What’s the Sox Prospects quote?
Via Stats: “Red Sox folks have been radio silent since the meeting. Everything written the last two weeks has been fabricated fan fiction. The silence was broken today, and getting Soto now would seem to take multiple miracles.”