Boston’s taxing pursuit of Juan Soto is over. (Mets)

Pablo's TB Lover

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So the Dodgers are at 900?
"Heyman" and "thinks" should not be in the same sentence.
View attachment 92829
Dodgers are at $900 million: 15 years @ $10mil, $750mil deferred at $10mil/yr over 75 years. They have the goal of becoming the largest retirement fund in America.

Wow, Adrian Mendoza in shambles. Correctly reported Mets offer but incorrectly believed that meant other teams wouldn’t match! He’s so grounded.
His dad: 'That $20 million we have to increase the offer by is coming out of your allowance, young man!'
 

DeadlySplitter

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And where would Bregman / Adames play if they sign? That flies in the face of comments today about Raffy not moving. Unless for Adames you move off of STory, but that seems like a headache.

I know Bregman has been open to 2B, and perhaps they don't want to fully rely on Campbell being the next big thing there, but... still not a great roster fit. Also I would prefer not to have to root for Bregman.

edit: Forgot this was the SOto thread, sorry for going off-topic
 

Sox Puppet

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Agreed -- I honestly don't get the Bregman/Adames rumors that seem to pop up every now and then. It's almost as if we don't already have a very promising and cost-controlled middle infield pipeline (Campbell, Mayer, Grissom, Hamilton) alongside a high-paid vet (Story) that would cost money to move. Sure, in a vacuum, one of the aforementioned FA might sound appealing, but not in our present state.
 

pdub

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Bregman and Adames don't make sense because we have to shuffle Story, Casas, and Devers. I doubt they'll eat Story's salary to try and dump him, and trading Casas would be a bad move. Plus, isn't Grissom coming back this season? The only move I could see is signing someone like Bregman after trading Casas+ for pitching, but why wouldn't we just go and sign Fried instead at that point?
 

YTF

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Bregman and Adames don't make sense because we have to shuffle Story, Casas, and Devers. I doubt they'll eat Story's salary to try and dump him, and trading Casas would be a bad move. Plus, isn't Grissom coming back this season? The only move I could see is signing someone like Bregman after trading Casas+ for pitching, but why wouldn't we just go and sign Fried instead at that point?
Story's the best defender of the bunch. In an infield that mostly suffered in that department for the past two seasons, he's not going anywhere. I really don't see a need for Adames, but Bregman could fit in spelling both Casas and Raffy while the three of them rotate through the DH position. There's most likely not a place for Yoshida in this scenario.
 

Al Zarilla

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And where would Bregman / Adames play if they sign? That flies in the face of comments today about Raffy not moving. Unless for Adames you move off of STory, but that seems like a headache.

I know Bregman has been open to 2B, and perhaps they don't want to fully rely on Campbell being the next big thing there, but... still not a great roster fit. Also I would prefer not to have to root for Bregman.

edit: Forgot this was the SOto thread, sorry for going off-topic
Isn’t Bregman sweetness and light compared with Aroldis C? Not a hand wringer here (give me another title regardless of who helps git ‘r done). Gettin’ old.
 

DeadlySplitter

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Isn’t Bregman sweetness and light compared with Aroldis C? Not a hand wringer here (give me another title regardless of who helps git ‘r done). Gettin’ old.
In terms of as a person, sure. But he definitely has a lot of Astros stench on him.
 

BaseballJones

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Agreed -- I honestly don't get the Bregman/Adames rumors that seem to pop up every now and then. It's almost as if we don't already have a very promising and cost-controlled middle infield pipeline (Campbell, Mayer, Grissom, Hamilton) alongside a high-paid vet (Story) that would cost money to move. Sure, in a vacuum, one of the aforementioned FA might sound appealing, but not in our present state.
Yeah I agree. Right now their IF situation...

1b - a young powerhouse LH hitter in Casas (just 24 years old). 42 career homers in just 717 career AB. Lifetime ops of .830 and ops+ of 125
2b - a young up-and-coming player that they traded Chris Sale for in Grissom (just 23)
3b - their current cornerstone player in Raffy Devers (just 28)
SS - their big FA acquisition of a few years ago, one of their only good RH bats in Story, who not only should be a good hitter, but he's a phenomenal fielder

Additionally, they have...

- One of the best prospects in baseball in Mayer, who plays SS
- One of the best prospects in baseball in Campbell, who can play SS or 2b
- One of the most versatile young players in the game in Rafaela, who can play OF or SS
- One of the fastest players in baseball who just put up 2.6 WAR and stole 33 bases in Hamilton (just turned 27)
- A versatile IF utility guy in Romy Gonzalez (28)

Now you don't say no to Bregman or Adames because you have Romy Gonzalez. But they do have tons of depth at these IF positions, and it's where two of their best prospects (and two of the best in all of baseball) play, and you've also got quality in Rafaela and Hamilton as well. Romy is just depth but pretty nice depth.

Paying big bucks for Adames or Bregman really makes no sense. Acquiring Bregman to trade away Casas makes little sense to me unless they're getting a stud SP in return, which I guess would be the plan.
 

pdub

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Unless they see flaws in Casas that we don't, I really hope they keep the young core together. It is very difficult to land young talent that plays well. Obviously, there are no guarantees with anything, but Casas has been good when healthy. I would rather they overpay for Fried or Burnes than trade Casas for someone like Crochet.
 

Sox Puppet

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Unless they see flaws in Casas that we don't, I really hope they keep the young core together. It is very difficult to land young talent that plays well. Obviously, there are no guarantees with anything, but Casas has been good when healthy. I would rather they overpay for Fried or Burnes than trade Casas for someone like Crochet.
Right, and even assuming Casas were traded, Kristian Campbell can play 3B as well. Though the scouting report thinks 2B is his best position, I'd still rather put him at third than spend $30M on an unnecessary Bregman signing.
 

SemperFidelisSox

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Unless they see flaws in Casas that we don't, I really hope they keep the young core together. It is very difficult to land young talent that plays well. Obviously, there are no guarantees with anything, but Casas has been good when healthy. I would rather they overpay for Fried or Burnes than trade Casas for someone like Crochet.
Isn’t this the flaw?
 

BigSoxFan

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Right, and even assuming Casas were traded, Kristian Campbell can play 3B as well. Though the scouting report thinks 2B is his best position, I'd still rather put him at third than spend $30M on an unnecessary Bregman signing.
Agreed. $30M+ / year for the decline years of Bregman would be a weird use of financial flexibility for this team to me.
 

radsoxfan

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If the Sox' payroll goes up to, say, $250m for 2025, and Soto takes up about $47m, that's 18.9% of the team's payroll. Contrast that with, say, Steph Curry and the Warriors. According to Spotrac, Curry takes up 39.7% of Golden State's 2024 payroll. Assume, just to make this easier, that there's 15 guys on the Warriors and 26 on the Red Sox.

Curry: 6.7% of the roster space, 39.7% of the payroll
Soto: 3.8% of the roster space, 18.9% of the payroll

Now how much impact would these guys have? By WAR (or VORP in the case of the NBA). I'm just adding Soto to Boston's 2024 roster just to make it easy.

Curry (2023-24): 4.4 VORP out of GS's 13.2 total VORP, or 33.3%, 39.7% of payroll
Soto (2024): 7.9 bWAR out of Boston's 47.8 total bWAR, or 16.5%, 18.9% of payroll

So it's actually a pretty close comp, I guess, in terms of value, if Soto got this huge deal.
Appreciate the cross sport analysis effort, but Curry is not the one I would use if you want to do it. Jokic lead the NBA in VORP at 10.6, Curry was 13th.

It's also problematic for a few other reasons. VORP isn't a great stat (the NBA is very context dependent) and has max contracts artificially reducing the top salaries. Top NBA players also get an outsized share of the minutes available/usage on the court compared to MLB players who can only hit in 1/9th of the plate appearances. Curry's or Jokic's or Tatum's % of roster space is too small and pretty meaningless. Anyway, long story short, I don't think it works at all.

If we knew the Red Sox actual budget and expected payroll, you could look at the % Soto is expected to take up and use that to compare to other MLB guys/teams. But even so, the biggest issue is not if Soto takes up 15% or 20% or 25% of the 2025 payroll. It's how much he takes up in 2034-2038 when he's got a .600 OPS, negative WAR, and battling through plantar fasciitis, a torn labrum, wrist tendonitis, and knee osteoarthritis.
 

chrisfont9

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8. The Left Fielder Legends:
*Williams
*Yaz
*Rice
*Manny
*Soto
:) I mean, who knows if he likes that stuff but I suspect he does. Obviously the Yankees would have their version of RFs, but not the Mets. Boston is a big part of MLB culture, regardless of what the team has been up to for a few years. *If* he sees stuff like this as more meaningful than just hitting balls and making money, it makes sense.
 

chrisfont9

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Isn’t Bregman sweetness and light compared with Aroldis C? Not a hand wringer here (give me another title regardless of who helps git ‘r done). Gettin’ old.
Youk can sell him on being a Jewish star in the Boston market! (agree about the positional thing, depends where he thinks he's gonna play. No on Adames unless it is a similar superutility role.)
 

Kramerica Industries

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Im not a yes on Bregman but there is value in bringing in a player who plays the right way and who knows how to be a professional winning baseball player. When bringing in a young core you need good veteran leadership. Ortiz I'm sure was huge for Mookie and Xander as they came up.

Id much rather Soto be that guy but i think that added value is hard to quantify
 

BaseballJones

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Appreciate the cross sport analysis effort, but Curry is not the one I would use if you want to do it. Jokic lead the NBA in VORP at 10.6, Curry was 13th.
Well Soto isn't the #1 bWAR guy either. He was 6th:

1. Judge 10.8
2. Witt 9.4
3. Ohtani 9.2
4. Henderson 9.1
5. Duran 8.7
6. Soto 7.9

So I'm not sure Jokic is the right guy to compare him to either.

It's also problematic for a few other reasons. VORP isn't a great stat (the NBA is very context dependent) and has max contracts artificially reducing the top salaries. Top NBA players also get an outsized share of the minutes available/usage on the court compared to MLB players who can only hit in 1/9th of the plate appearances. Curry's or Jokic's or Tatum's % of roster space is too small and pretty meaningless. Anyway, long story short, I don't think it works at all.

If we knew the Red Sox actual budget and expected payroll, you could look at the % Soto is expected to take up and use that to compare to other MLB guys/teams. But even so, the biggest issue is not if Soto takes up 15% or 20% or 25% of the 2025 payroll. It's how much he takes up in 2034-2038 when he's got a .600 OPS, negative WAR, and battling through plantar fasciitis, a torn labrum, wrist tendonitis, and knee osteoarthritis.
Yeah, I mean, it's really hard to compare across sports. Someone earlier in the discussion did it and I thought I'd at least do a basic comparison is all. I'm quite sure the suiters for Soto are not even remotely considering the NBA in their calculations.
 

Mugsy's Jock

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Reading a bunch of national press today, and pretty much nobody sees Boston as a top contender for Soto. Certainly doesn’t mean that’s the case, but I’m getting little of the same feeling in my SoSH bubble I had in Views and News right before Election Day.
 

DJnVa

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Stresses me out too, nothing other than the money is guaranteed, but it’s the price of doing business. Guys with 40 homer power and the eye of Ted Williams just don’t hit free agency in their mid 20s.
Like, sports stress or actual stress?
 

simplicio

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Reading a bunch of national press today, and pretty much nobody sees Boston as a top contender for Soto. Certainly doesn’t mean that’s the case, but I’m getting little of the same feeling in my SoSH bubble I had in Views and News right before Election Day.
Hasn't national press coverage of the Sox in the last 5 years mostly been "that team that traded Mookie"?
 

dgello1971

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It is all a guessing game. Nobody outside of Soto, Boras and a few in his inner circle have a clue. It is like people will throw crap out, and if it is correct they will pat themselves on the back. If not, their comments will drift into obscurity.
 

pdub

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Isn’t this the flaw?
I get what you mean, but I haven't seen anything yet which says that he has a chronic condition or that he's a high risk to re-injure. I hear you though, I just don't know if we're at the point where we want to trade him because he's an injury risk.
 

Hank Scorpio

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Just to throw a shitload of gas on the fire...

...in the past 40 minutes, Juan Soto to the Red Sox has jumped from 6% to 46% on PolyMarket.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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To give some context into how long 14 years is- 14 years ago, Terry Francona was managing the Red Sox, and Dustin Pedroia was 26, the same age Juan Soto is now. Jacoby Ellsbury and Jon Lester were also 26.
 

CJ Mosca

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Just to throw a shitload of gas on the fire...

...in the past 40 minutes, Juan Soto to the Red Sox has jumped from 6% to 46% on PolyMarket.
That's not based on inside info though. Just means bettors are starting to hear that Sox are legit players, right?
 

Hank Scorpio

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That's based on inside info though. Just means bettors are starting to hear that Sox are legit players, right?
Right. I could see a huge jump maybe meaning someone knows something - but I doubt it. Maybe Passan, Heyman, or Boras make a small stop over on PolyMarket before breaking any news!
 

Merkle's Boner

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i think people are underestimating Rafaela when talking about the infield. While it wasn’t perfect, I thought his move to SS to cover for Story was so impressive for a young guy who I wasn’t even sure would be with the big club at the beginning of the year. I realize he’s an amazing CF but he just might be the best defensive SS on the team someday, and if Story goes down again, and Mayer is not yet ready, he’s the guy I want to see out there everyday.
 

Hendu for Kutch

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Just to throw a shitload of gas on the fire...

...in the past 40 minutes, Juan Soto to the Red Sox has jumped from 6% to 46% on PolyMarket.
Damn. I read this and then shortly after SoSH wouldn't load. I got reeeeeaalllly excited for a minute there thinking something had broke and crashed the site.
 

BigSoxFan

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FWIW, currently seeing:

Mets: 49%
Sox: 32%
Yankees: 22%

Mets were at 80% about an hour ago. No idea what is driving any of this but doubtful it’s meaningful.
 

Sausage in Section 17

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Of the 638 total players who posted a season above 4.0, only 24 of those seasons came from position players over 34, just 45 if you include pitchers.
 

Hank Scorpio

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FWIW, currently seeing:

Mets: 49%
Sox: 32%
Yankees: 22%

Mets were at 80% about an hour ago. No idea what is driving any of this but doubtful it’s meaningful.
Yeah, not sure what happened, but it was kinda wonky for a few minutes and had the Sox up to 46%, then it adjusted down - but there's nothing showing it ever hit 46.
 

HurstSoGood

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Leave it to the Mets and Sox to be fighting over who get's the next great Saberhagen Bonilla deal. We've got 2 more years to go on Manny's contract, right?
 

ookami7m

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Leave it to the Mets and Sox to be fighting over who get's the next great Saberhagen Bonilla deal. We've got 2 more years to go on Manny's contract, right?
It’s funny how everyone dunks on the Mets for the Bonilla deal when it really was a win for them. It just looks bad to pay a guy who sucked and then disappeared.
 

joe dokes

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Speier said "monitoring" the 2 guys nobody (me too) wants. Bergman and Adames. In the past, "monitoring" was the bat signal for "Cheap bastard Henry should sell the team." So how about we apply that here to the same word and conclude that "monitoring" means "no interest unless they are released and available for free."
 

BigSoxFan

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FWIW, only people outside the US can bet at Polymarket. During the election, Trump’s chances on Polymarket were being driven largely by one person in France.

https://www.business-standard.com/amp/world-news/polymarket-investigated-by-doj-for-letting-us-users-bet-on-platform-124111400111_1.html

As of this moment, total trades are $10,500.
Think someone on SoSH mentioned that it’s really easy to get a workaround inside the U.S. although maybe the legal scrutiny has them protecting that better now. Either way, yeah, this isn’t anything.

But if I were betting, Mets would be quite attractive at that price.
 

LeoCarrillo

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If Cohen has no limit (and I don't think he does -- the guy is partnering with Hard Rock in a bid to bring a hotel-casino complex called Metropolitan Park to the area next to Citi Field. For $8 billion (pinkie to mouth)). So, I'm digging the thought that the Sox are just continuing to bump the bet above whatever the Yankees offer.

IOW, I'd click shut the padlock this minute on Soto-to-the-Mets to keep him from The Bronx and love to see what Breslow does otherwise with cash and assets.