Boston’s taxing pursuit of Juan Soto is over. (Mets)

Sox Pride

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I am worried they’ll sign Soto and say that’s all they could afford this offseason. Soto is a special player, but he doesn’t fill all the holes on the Red Sox’ roster.
sure -
but will you cry if they sign Soto and then sign Bueller or Severino
or trade from OF depth for Crochet (or similar)

but then pivot to say
Burnes or Fried plus Teoscar?
if they miss out on Soto...
 

sezwho

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This is a worthwhile debate, but I still opt for the Soto at $700 million side. There's quite a lot of value wrapped up in those three roster spots in this hypothetical, and with our farm system, the value of the cost-controlled players is pretty high.

We should also consider the off-field value of Soto in a Boston uniform would generate. Not only in sponsorships and marketing dollars, but the trickle down effects (on other MLB players, within New England sports, on future generations, etc.). It would basically transform the perception of the team from whatever it is now (YMMV) to something pretty damn close to "Dodgers East." How much is that worth?
Soto makes this Dodgers East? Pass the Dutchie :)

Add a couple big dollar pitchers (edit - still possible!) and sustain the investment for years and we’ll talk.
 

mr_smith02

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sure -
but will you cry if they sign Soto and then sign Bueller or Severino
or trade from OF depth for Crochet (or similar)

but then pivot to say
Burnes or Fried plus Teoscar?
if they miss out on Soto...
I am not crying about any of this.
I will be disappointed if they spend a tremendous amount of money on Soto and are unwilling or unable to address the team’s weaknesses.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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The thing is, I'd love to see the top of our line up go with Duran, Soto, and Devers in it.
Sure. I just think teams are likely to undervalue Abreu... and want him, plus Mayer plus, etc.... to get a SP in return, while I think they'd be more willing to part with a Kirby or Gilbert type for Duran.
 

Max Power

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This is a worthwhile debate, but I still opt for the Soto at $700 million side. There's quite a lot of value wrapped up in those three roster spots in this hypothetical, and with our farm system, the value of the cost-controlled players is pretty high.
If Soto signs a 15 year deal, the cost controlled guys you're relying on during the possible deadweight time of his contract are currently in elementary school.
 

radsoxfan

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I think we’re all aware. This is a question of risk tolerance and risk/reward, really. If Soto helps the Sox to a title, he could have 0.0 WAR on the back end and I wouldn’t care.
Everyone is aware to some degree, but based on the posts I'm not sure everyone has the appropriate risk/reward mindset on this one. Saints Rest putting some numbers to it puts things in perspective.

Paying 350M for a Pujolsian sub 10 WAR back half of the contract would be a real problem. Sure salaries will go up and 50M AAV won't sound quite as crazy in the 2030s, but it's an awful lot of $. And at those AAV numbers, unlikely you are getting a ton of excess value out of years 1-7 either.

Like I said I hope we sign him so something semi-reasonable, but if we earmark a similar amount of $ for pitching I'd be OK with that also. I don't think it's Soto or bust.
 

Niastri

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If Soto signs a 15 year deal, the cost controlled guys you're relying on during the possible deadweight time of his contract are currently in elementary school.
Fifteen years from now, even the 15/$800 million deal won't seem that bad by the end of it.

Looking at payroll in 2009, only 4 players made $20 million annually. In 2024, a $20 million salary didn't get you into the top50.

By the time this deal is up, $53 million will be the going rate for a slightly above average free agent.

Comparatively, in 2009 the tax threshold was $162 million, in 2024 it was $237 million.

Even if the tax threshold continues to lag salaries, it seems likely the decline years of Soto's career won't be especially painful, as long as they are only 4-5 years and not 7 or more.

His peak might pay for the whole contract, even if he's making $800 million for the contract.
 

radsoxfan

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Fifteen years from now, even the 15/$800 million deal won't seem that bad by the end of it.

Looking at payroll in 2009, only 4 players made $20 million annually. In 2024, a $20 million salary didn't get you into the top50.

By the time this deal is up, $53 million will be the going rate for a slightly above average free agent.

Comparatively, in 2009 the tax threshold was $162 million, in 2024 it was $237 million.

Even if the tax threshold continues to lag salaries, it seems likely the decline years of Soto's career won't be especially painful, as long as they are only 4-5 years and not 7 or more.

His peak might pay for the whole contract, even if he's making $800 million for the contract.
I think you are significantly overstating things here Mr. Boras.

The average MLB contract has gone from 3.9M to 4.9M over the last 10 years.

We care about what's happen during a potential 15 year contract, not starting in 15 years.

I think things (likely) will continue to trend up, and in years 10-15 a 50M AAV will probably be more like 30-40M.

That's still going to be a ton of sunk money if Soto is a 1-2 WAR per year guy (and even worse if he goes negative, like many of his comps did).
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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It’s no guarantee at all that contracts will continue to rise as they have…things look fairly meh on the local revenue side, no?
 

Max Power

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Fifteen years from now, even the 15/$800 million deal won't seem that bad by the end of it.

Looking at payroll in 2009, only 4 players made $20 million annually. In 2024, a $20 million salary didn't get you into the top50.

By the time this deal is up, $53 million will be the going rate for a slightly above average free agent.

Comparatively, in 2009 the tax threshold was $162 million, in 2024 it was $237 million.

Even if the tax threshold continues to lag salaries, it seems likely the decline years of Soto's career won't be especially painful, as long as they are only 4-5 years and not 7 or more.

His peak might pay for the whole contract, even if he's making $800 million for the contract.
I don't know if we can assume contracts are going to keep going up at the same value in the next 15 years as they have in the past 15. TV partners are going bankrupt, national deals are getting renegotiated, and advertising has already been squeezed into every available bit of the presentation. If it weren't for the legalization of online sports gambling, MLB might already be in a financial crisis.
 

Niastri

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I don't know if we can assume contracts are going to keep going up at the same value in the next 15 years as they have in the past 15. TV partners are going bankrupt, national deals are getting renegotiated, and advertising has already been squeezed into every available bit of the presentation. If it weren't for the legalization of online sports gambling, MLB might already be in a financial crisis.
Amazon, Netflix, Disney, and Apple (among others) have entered the fray.

Network television is going to need to be cost conservative, but the streaming services are going to be battling to be part of the next generation of entertainment for at least another decade.

The streaming services are losing billions on programming that really isn't very good... They need the subscribers more than they need the money, and there isn't really an end in sight. Having daddy's like Amazon.com, the iPhone, and Disney World has really made the big boys in the streaming space unconcerned about expenses for now. They don't need to make money, unlike HBO/Warner Discovery, Netflix and the networks. But between the big boys and the network companies, there are enormous amounts of money for programming right now.

Now would be a very good time to write a bestseller easily convertible into either a movie or a television series. That's neither here nor there to this conversation.

As far as money for programming goes, live sporting events are pretty bankable for viewers, and the market dynamics are likely going to continue increasing the value/cost of sports television. The contracts already being given out indicate at least some teams believe the same as I do about television contracts.

I think the next 20 years of revenue and salary increases will look a lot like the last 20.

If I'm wrong, an $800 million Soto contact could sink the payroll for a long long time. I'm glad I don't have to make that decision, but the people who will have much more information than I do on which to base their decisions.
 

SirPsychoSquints

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This is a great point on face value, but I wonder if it holds up when you look at the careers of great (ie. HOF-level) hitters. (Sobering answer below)

Here are a few names with total WAR for their age 33-38 seasons (to line up with years 7-12 for Soto), including some who are listed as Similar per baseball-reference thru age 25:
  • Yaz: 22.1
  • Papi: 17.7
  • Manny: 19.1
  • Pujols: 8.4
  • Junior: 6.7
  • Miguel Cabrera: 3.9
  • Andruw Jones: 3.0
Through age 25 (including 2020), Soto has been worth 36.4 bWAR (294 Rbat).
  • Yaz 19.4
  • Papi 1.3
  • Manny 12.6
  • Pujols 37.7 (293 Rbat)
  • Junior 40.4 (198 Rbat)
  • Miggy 21.0
  • Andruw 37.5 (65 Rbat)
Purely by batting value (Rbat), Soto has been the 6th most productive hitter through age 25 EVER. It's worth noting this is runs value above the average MLB batter. Pujols and Ted are just 1-4 runs behind him on this measure. The top 8 players, their Rbat through age 25, and then 33-38:

  1. Cobb 349/237
  2. Foxx 347/22 (26 age 33)
  3. Mantle 346/101 (retired after age 36)
  4. Trout 345/starts in 2025
  5. Ott 321/126 (-11 in his last 2 years).
  6. Soto 294/starts in 2037
  7. Pujols 293/29 (53 in first 4 years, -24 in last 2)
  8. Ted 290 (missed ages 24-25 WW2)/267 (missed almost all of ages 33-34 Korea)

https://stathead.com/tiny/JvTFw
 

chawson

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If Soto signs a 15 year deal, the cost controlled guys you're relying on during the possible deadweight time of his contract are currently in elementary school.
I don't know if we can assume contracts are going to keep going up at the same value in the next 15 years as they have in the past 15. TV partners are going bankrupt, national deals are getting renegotiated, and advertising has already been squeezed into every available bit of the presentation. If it weren't for the legalization of online sports gambling, MLB might already be in a financial crisis.
What course of action are you arguing for here? Didn’t you just spend the last few years griping about the Sox not spending on premium free agents?
 

buttons

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Hopefully it’s true, whether or not he comes to Boston, so things don’t drag out forever.
It seems like all major deals are on hold until he signs.
The Sox can make a lot of moves to put them in contention but not with just signing Soto.
What I mean is that while his signing would have a multitude of positive benefits it won’t get the job done unless there are other major signings.
On the other hand hand we can get there without him.
 

E5 Yaz

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Newsweek sports, but apparently a Boras quote

@jphoornstra
Scott Boras said Juan Soto has “begun the process of eliminating teams.” Signing is not imminent.
 

E5 Yaz

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Terse. Can’t Boras say Soto has started to eliminate teams that have made an offer? Certainly, he doesn’t mean he’s eliminating starting with all 30.
I'm guessing Boras thinks the members of the press are smart enough to know what he meant
 

soxhop411

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Terse. Can’t Boras say Soto has started to eliminate teams that have made an offer? Certainly, he doesn’t mean he’s eliminating starting with all 30.
Knowing Boras, he will drag this out and make it like the bachelorette show my mother loves to hate watch.
Wonder who gets the rose.
92642
 

loneredseat

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Dec 8, 2023
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Sure. I just think teams are likely to undervalue Abreu... and want him, plus Mayer plus, etc.... to get a SP in return, while I think they'd be more willing to part with a Kirby or Gilbert type for Duran.
Funny- I made this same argument on one of these threads a while back- I think it was on the Crochet thread. I truly like Abreu and I'd love to see him in RF for a long time. I think it's his years of control that is appealing.
I asked this question before, though- If Duran goes, who leads off?
Can't get the idea of Duran- Soto- Devers out of my head.
 

YTF

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Fifteen years from now, even the 15/$800 million deal won't seem that bad by the end of it.

Looking at payroll in 2009, only 4 players made $20 million annually. In 2024, a $20 million salary didn't get you into the top50.

By the time this deal is up, $53 million will be the going rate for a slightly above average free agent.

Comparatively, in 2009 the tax threshold was $162 million, in 2024 it was $237 million.

Even if the tax threshold continues to lag salaries, it seems likely the decline years of Soto's career won't be especially painful, as long as they are only 4-5 years and not 7 or more.

His peak might pay for the whole contract, even if he's making $800 million for the contract.
I think there has to be a tipping point here. At some point fans get priced out of the process and as the aging fan base begins to die off are the next generations going to walk through stadium turnstiles to the tune of 2.5-4 million per season. And how many are going to be invested enough in the game to support the different media sources that one needs to support should they want to watch all of their team's games?
 

Ferm Sheller

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"He's begun the process of eliminating teams" is just a mechanism for putting pressure on teams to up their bids, in my opinion. "Oh no, we don't want to be eliminated -- let's up our bid before he drops the guillotine blade on our head."
 

Al Zarilla

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Alright, smartasses. It could mean that Soto is eliminating teams that have made an offer. It could also mean he won’t entertain any and all Johnny come latelies, like if the Twins suddenly came in with an offer.
 

TapeAndPosts

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If the Boras remarks were just him answering a Soto question at the Snell press conference, I wouldn’t take it to mean much of anything at all. Just a slightly wordier version of “Yep it’s still going.”
 

Niastri

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I think there has to be a tipping point here. At some point fans get priced out of the process and as the aging fan base begins to die off are the next generations going to walk through stadium turnstiles to the tune of 2.5-4 million per season. And how many are going to be invested enough in the game to support the different media sources that one needs to support should they want to watch all of their team's games?
The thing about the streaming services and live sports is the value proposition.
If they spend $100 million dollars ten times and make ten different movies, they get 25-30 hours of viewing, and then the only payoff is either outside licensing or the nebulous value of repeat viewing or having it in their catalog for potential new subscribers. Unless it's Game of Thrones or the Sopranos, there isn't a lot of longevity in most of the stuff the studios are putting out.

On the other hand, if they shell out that same billion dollars and get a few seasons of "the game of the week" they are drawing a different viewership every week. They get hundreds of hours of viewing with a rotating viewership. But most importantly, they get to sell ads while also charging subscribers.

Amazon is paying $1 billion a season for NFL Thursday night games. They are losing hundreds of millions per season. It's the future value of having prime as a viable streaming service long term that matters.

It's the same reason Warner Brothers tanked every movie release by simultaneously releasing it on HBO Max for a whole year a while back. The streaming wars are extremely important to these companies, both present and future.

While MLB value isn't NFL value when it comes to broadcasting, they will get paid more than seems reasonable, assuming Manfred didn't continue to screw everything up.

Those broadcast dollars will eventually trickle down to player payroll.
 

Hank Scorpio

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At this point, what would excite you more?

“The Mets have been informed they are not considered a destination for Juan Soto.”

“The Yankees have been informed they are out of the Juan Soto running.”

“The Red Sox have, once again, increased their offer to Juan Soto.”
 

brandonchristensen

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At this point, what would excite you more?

“The Mets have been informed they are not considered a destination for Juan Soto.”

“The Yankees have been informed they are out of the Juan Soto running.”

“The Red Sox have, once again, increased their offer to Juan Soto.”
Yankees obviously.
If the Mets get him, oh well.
 

soxhop411

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LOS ANGELES — The floor for Juan Soto is $600 million.

The bidding for the free-agent MLB outfielder has surpassed that amount, according to two people briefed on the negotiations who were not authorized to speak publicly.

Agent Scott Boras said Tuesday at Dodger Stadium that Soto has started the process of eliminating potential landing spots, but did not specify which ones.

The clubs publicly known to be most serious about Soto are the New York Mets, New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Toronto Blue Jays and Los Angeles Dodgers. The two people briefed on the negotiations said that all remaining contenders have made offers above $600 million.

The expectation within the industry is that Soto will make his decision by the end of the Winter Meetings, which begin in Dallas on Sunday, and possibly even before the meetings kick off. But Boras said he doesn’t expect an “imminent” decision.
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5967592/2024/12/03/juan-soto-signing-update-600-million/
 

YTF

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"He's begun the process of eliminating teams" is just a mechanism for putting pressure on teams to up their bids, in my opinion. "Oh no, we don't want to be eliminated -- let's up our bid before he drops the guillotine blade on our head."
At this point, what would excite you more?

“The Mets have been informed they are not considered a destination for Juan Soto.”

“The Yankees have been informed they are out of the Juan Soto running.”


“The Red Sox have, once again, increased their offer to Juan Soto.”
Yankee elimination day IS a thing around these parts. :cool: Actually I'm going to make a public plea here. Should the Sox somehow end up with Soto would whoever starts the thread announcing the signing please consider a clever use of "Yankee Elimination Day" in the thread's title?
 

SouthernBoSox

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Further

The Mets are widely regarded as the favorite for Soto, with many in the industry believing the team’s owner, Steve Cohen, will top any rival bid. But the Yankees desperately want to keep Soto as a complement to Aaron Judge, and the Red Sox have emerged as a surprising force in the negotiations. The Blue Jays and Dodgers are considered longer shots, though the Jays were willing to match the Dodgers’ bid for Ohtani last offseason, and seem to be just as intently focused on Soto.
 

RedOctober3829

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Rosenthal: Bids are all over $600 million. Makes it seem like a 3 horse race between Yankees/Mets/Red Sox. “Red Sox have emerged as a surprising force in negotiations”
LOS ANGELES — The floor for Juan Soto is $600 million.
The bidding for the free-agent MLB outfielder has surpassed that amount, according to two people briefed on the negotiations who were not authorized to speak publicly.
Agent Scott Boras said Tuesday at Dodger Stadium that Soto has started the process of eliminating potential landing spots, but did not specify which ones.


The clubs publicly known to be most serious about Soto are the New York Mets, New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Toronto Blue Jaysand Los Angeles Dodgers. The two people briefed on the negotiations said that all remaining contenders have made offers above $600 million.
The expectation within the industry is that Soto will make his decision by the end of the Winter Meetings, which begin in Dallas on Sunday, and possibly even before the meetings kick off. But Boras said he doesn’t expect an “imminent” decision.


Soto, 26, is on the verge of a landmark contract for two reasons: He is young for a free agent, and teams consider him a once-in-a-generation offensive talent.
His deal is expected to be for at least 12 years, and its present-day value almost certainly will beat the record Shohei Ohtani set with the Dodgers last offseason when he signed a heavily deferred 10-year, $700 million contract. Ohtani’s deal was valued at $460 million for luxury tax purposes, and $438 million by the players’ union.

The Mets are widely regarded as the favorite for Soto, with many in the industry believing the team’s owner, Steve Cohen, will top any rival bid. But the Yankees desperately want to keep Soto as a complement to Aaron Judge, and the Red Sox have emerged as a surprising force in the negotiations. The Blue Jays and Dodgers are considered longer shots, though the Jays were willing to match the Dodgers’ bid for Ohtani last offseason, and seem to be just as intently focused on Soto.
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5967592/2024/12/03/juan-soto-signing-update-600-million/
 

brandonchristensen

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Why is Ohtani’s deferred contract the baseline for a non-deferred contract?

I don’t think the Dodgers (or anyone) would sign him for 70M a year cash.