Boston’s taxing pursuit of Juan Soto is over. (Mets)

WilhelmScream

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I'm only posting this because the guy's track record seems really solid View: https://twitter.com/hesser_tom/status/1862625525589573683
edit: look at his timeline, when he posts it seems to happen
So in my initial search, it appears that he had Gerrit Cole a week before he signed (this is from Dec 6th, Cole signed on the 10th) and if you look in the comments nobody believes him:

and he had Bryce Harper a week before it was announced:

Hmmm. It's possible the guy deletes all his misses...?
 

YTF

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Are we all assuming that if the Sox get Soto that Teoscar would be redundant?
IMO yes, but I'm curious why you ask. Do you think he's a better use of resources post a potential Soto signing than the rotation and bullpen? I'm assuming in any scenario where the Sox sign both you would definitely have to subsidize at least half of Yoshida's salary to fit both into the lineup. Let's be conservative and say Soto's at 40-42M per and Hernandez at let's say 21-23M per. Let's call the pair at 65M (IF you can land both), what do you see for the rest of the off season?
 

Hank Scorpio

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IMO yes, but I'm curious why you ask. Do you think he's a better use of resources post a potential Soto signing than the rotation and bullpen? I'm assuming in any scenario where the Sox sign both you would definitely have to subsidize at least half of Yoshida's salary to fit both into the lineup. Let's be conservative and say Soto's at 40-42M per and Hernandez at let's say 21-23M per. Let's call the pair at 65M (IF you can land both), what do you see for the rest of the off season?
Soto is looking to get close to, or perhaps over, $50M per year if the leaked offers are true.
 

Max Power

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The most similar hitters through age 25 for Soto are Harper, Frank Robinson, Griffey and Trout, Andruw Jones is the worst name on the rest of the list. Harper is a great comp, and I imagine that midway through the deal he would probably shift to a less taxing position.
Trout was the best player on that list through age 25. But if you gave him a $600 million contract at that point, it would be a disaster. The Angels are merely on the hook for $425 million for Trout's yearly injury tour.
 

VORP Speed

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I think the Dodgers have a competitive advantage in being on the hook for that money later. A lot of teams might not have the financial stability to stomach owing $68million a year from 2034-43, for past performance. They will also have to pay an entire roster's worth of guys to play in 2034 and beyond. So yes, anyone can do it, but I'd guess a lot of teams would be pretty uncomfortable. Any owner thinking of selling someday would be wary of this.

FYI the LT hit for deferred money isn't deferred. LA pays $46m a year for the playing portion of the deal (2024-33), rather than $70mx10, because MLB uses present-day valuation to calculate the tax hit, and those deferred payments make the contract worth $460m in 2024 dollars.

Deferrals have been around forever but usually pay most up front. Even Bobby Bonilla's famous deferrals were just $1m, compared to $5m a year when he was playing. Nobody ever did this much backloading before, probably because players wanted their money now. Ohtani is unique because he makes so much in endorsements back home, he doesn't need his salary anytime soon.
The CBA requires the present value of deferred compensation obligations to be funded at the time they’re incurred.

The Dodgers, unsurprisingly, are running a very smart playbook on how they handle that funding, though:

Sources tell Forbes that the Dodgers are going to use insurance money from Guggenheim Partners. “They’re playing a hedge on interest rates,” says one baseball executive. The hedge involves the tax treatment of the funds. If the Dodgers were to, say, hold treasuries to fund the Ohtani’s deferred contract obligation, they would have to pay taxes every year on any interest received. But if a company like Guggenheim holds treasuries in conjunction with an insurance policy, the interest income grows tax-free.
 

chrisfont9

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The CBA requires the present value of deferred compensation obligations to be funded at the time they’re incurred.

The Dodgers, unsurprisingly, are running a very smart playbook on how they handle that funding, though:

Sources tell Forbes that the Dodgers are going to use insurance money from Guggenheim Partners. “They’re playing a hedge on interest rates,” says one baseball executive. The hedge involves the tax treatment of the funds. If the Dodgers were to, say, hold treasuries to fund the Ohtani’s deferred contract obligation, they would have to pay taxes every year on any interest received. But if a company like Guggenheim holds treasuries in conjunction with an insurance policy, the interest income grows tax-free.
Ha! Well presumably something close to all 30 ownership groups would have access to these kind of uber-rich guy securities wrinkles, but the up-front funding -- literally cash in an account?? -- that's probably just for the big teams. At least at Ohtani levels.
 

simplicio

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Trout was the best player on that list through age 25. But if you gave him a $600 million contract at that point, it would be a disaster. The Angels are merely on the hook for $425 million for Trout's yearly injury tour.
A big part of both Trout's value and injury history is his fielding (and baserunning) though. Since Soto's value is almost entirely tired to his bat, he carries less risk.
 

E5 Yaz

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A big part of both Trout's value and injury history is his fielding (and baserunning) though. Since Soto's value is almost entirely tired to his bat, he carries less risk.
Or more risk, should he get an injury that severely impacts his hitting longterm
 

simplicio

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I mean his style of play is way less conducive to injury. He's more interested in controlling the strike zone than trying to be a 40/40 guy and scaling the CF wall regularly.
 

InsideTheParker

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Trout was the best player on that list through age 25. But if you gave him a $600 million contract at that point, it would be a disaster. The Angels are merely on the hook for $425 million for Trout's yearly injury tour.
I'm certainly not the only person fearful of putting so much money into one player. That can happen. (Never mind, see others are already discussing.)
 

E5 Yaz

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Suddenly If we take this as true, the random Twitter guy who said early on it was down to Bos/NYM looks pretty good.
Which puts him in company with dozens on this board who said (possibly even in this thread) that once the Red Sox were known to be involved, the Mets would likely be the toughest competition. Our poll thread ranked it Mets, Red Sox, Yankees.
 

Otis Foster

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I'm in a small minority, but I dislike the Mets as much as the MFYs. It's really the fan base, this incredible sense of entitlement in NY fans of every persuasion, the taunting and heaping of abuse when they're on top. Sure, I want the RS to prevail for the extra pleasure of mocking the Mets fans but I could live with the Jays (improbably) even though we're in the same division. 1986 left some deep scars.
 

Hank Scorpio

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Sure that's what he's looking to get, but there's no guarantee that the numbers get that high and I'm guessing the length of contract will play into all of this as well. Like I said, let's be conservative.
What I mean by "looking to get", is that seems like it's already on the table. Sox rumored to have offered either 13/$625 or 12/$600... which I tend to believe. AAVs of $48.1M and $50M.

I'm in a small minority, but I dislike the Mets as much as the MFYs. It's really the fan base, this incredible sense of entitlement in NY fans of every persuasion, the taunting and heaping of abuse when they're on top. Sure, I want the RS to prevail for the extra pleasure of mocking the Mets fans but I could live with the Jays (improbably) even though we're in the same division. 1986 left some deep scars.
I have a very strange, over-active imagination. And in my mind, essentially every Met fan looks and sounds like a depressed, self-loathing, Woody Allen look-a-like. I do not know why my brain works this way, but it just does.
 

54thMA

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I think the Dodgers have a competitive advantage in being on the hook for that money later. A lot of teams might not have the financial stability to stomach owing $68million a year from 2034-43, for past performance. They will also have to pay an entire roster's worth of guys to play in 2034 and beyond. So yes, anyone can do it, but I'd guess a lot of teams would be pretty uncomfortable. Any owner thinking of selling someday would be wary of this.

FYI the LT hit for deferred money isn't deferred. LA pays $46m a year for the playing portion of the deal (2024-33), rather than $70mx10, because MLB uses present-day valuation to calculate the tax hit, and those deferred payments make the contract worth $460m in 2024 dollars.

Deferrals have been around forever but usually pay most up front. Even Bobby Bonilla's famous deferrals were just $1m, compared to $5m a year when he was playing. Nobody ever did this much backloading before, probably because players wanted their money now. Ohtani is unique because he makes so much in endorsements back home, he doesn't need his salary anytime soon.
Thanks for taking the time to explain all of this to me.

The way you laid it out makes perfect sense, they gain a competitive advantage due to their financial stability to be on the hook in the future for past performance.

Thank you again as I now have a better understanding of how it works and why it's done.
 

Hee Sox Choi

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Why not go 15/700? He’s going to opt out after 4 or 5 anyway for a bigger payday. You front load and get the 46.6 annual. This guy is going to hit til he’s 40. He’s amazing. I understand Henry not wanting to sign over-30 pitchers but that means you go all-in on a bat like Soto. He’s a Hall-of-Famer and age 25.
 

WilhelmScream

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Why not go 15/700? He’s going to opt out after 4 or 5 anyway for a bigger payday. You front load and get the 46.6 annual. This guy is going to hit til he’s 40. He’s amazing. I understand Henry not wanting to sign over-30 pitchers but that means you go all-in on a bat like Soto. He’s a Hall-of-Famer and age 25.
My thoughts exactly. Give him 15 for $700,000,001 so he gets largest deal ever and largest AAV ever (46.66) and then watch him opt out in four or five years.
 

brienc

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What I mean by "looking to get", is that seems like it's already on the table. Sox rumored to have offered either 13/$625 or 12/$600... which I tend to believe. AAVs of $48.1M and $50M.



I have a very strange, over-active imagination. And in my mind, essentially every Met fan looks and sounds like a depressed, self-loathing, Woody Allen look-a-like. I do not know why my brain works this way, but it just does.
My over-active mind always thought of Mets fans as all being clones of John McEnroe blurting out “ARE YOU SERIOUS?!?” for all eternity.
 

radsoxfan

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Soto is great and likely still will be at age 30, but people love to gloss over the possibility for significant downside on these massive long term deals.

It's certainly possible he is only a 3-4 WAR, .850-900 OPS DH in 4-5 years. Good but not great. Hitters can also gets nagging wrist or shoulder injuries that cause long term problems.

He's as good of a bet as there is as a hitter reaching FA, but I wouldn't automatically assume he's going to opt out of some 10 year 400M+ deal at age 30. It could easily be a MASSIVE overpay at that point.
 

OCD SS

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Why not go 15/700? He’s going to opt out after 4 or 5 anyway for a bigger payday. You front load and get the 46.6 annual.
If the team has to give an opt, then they should mitigate their cost by keeping the start of the contract low, then ramp it up. If he’s already looking at an opt out, make the decision harder by setting it against a pay raise in the back half. If he goes, you at least probably got surplus value out of the deal.
 

AlNipper49

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View: https://twitter.com/bossportsgordo/status/1862961910628417937?s=46



Randy Miller is an American sportswriter best known for covering Major League Baseball, especially the New York Yankees. He works as the Yankees beat writer for NJ.com and the Newark Star-Ledger, providing detailed reporting and analysis on the team.





In addition to his journalism career, he wrote a biography called Harry the K: The Remarkable Life of Harry Kalas, which tells the story of the legendary Philadelphia Phillies broadcaster. The book is based on over 160 interviews and offers an in-depth look into Kalas’s life and career.





Miller is widely respected for his thorough and dedicated approach to sports journalism.

/gpt
 

E5 Yaz

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So, if the Miller report has it right, we'll find out whether it's just the highest bidder. Red Sox could offer him the largest contract in baseball and fall short of the Mets bid
 

Hank Scorpio

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I’m wondering if the Yankees are just going to go after Santander or something, Fried/Burnes, and bullpen help in addition to a first baseman.

It doesn’t make a ton of sense for them to be cheap right now, as the next couple of FA classes are pretty weak. I think next year is Guerrero and Clease, and a bunch of guys you go 2-3 years on.

Hard to believe if they’re pretty much out on Soto, assuming it’s not already a done deal. I wonder if they have sights set on Vlad next year.
 

Rich Garces Belly

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I’m so confident that the Red Sox are signing Soto that I purchased NESN Plus for a year (half off until 12/1). No more illegal streaming for me.
 

simplicio

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I’m wondering if the Yankees are just going to go after Santander or something, Fried/Burnes, and bullpen help in addition to a first baseman.

It doesn’t make a ton of sense for them to be cheap right now, as the next couple of FA classes are pretty weak. I think next year is Guerrero and Clease, and a bunch of guys you go 2-3 years on.

Hard to believe if they’re pretty much out on Soto, assuming it’s not already a done deal. I wonder if they have sights set on Vlad next year.
Santander would be an absurd fit for their child sized LF.
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