Boston’s taxing pursuit of Juan Soto is over. (Mets)

chawson

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They simply won't outbid NYY/NYM/LAD.
LAD aren't in, according to most reports I’ve read. The biggest reason is that Soto (reportedly) wants no deferrals, and that sort of contract would not go over well in a clubhouse of stars who all took deferrals.
 

derekson

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I know pitching is our biggest need, and I think Fried is a perfect fit. That said, I want Soto bad. It's very rare for a free agent this good and this young to be available. This is a generational move. We have enough young talent to surround him with that we can keep our payroll "reasonable". This also would make trading Abreu even easier. Maybe it's for Crochet, maybe Seattle decides they need offense bad enough to talk one of their young starters. Either way, it gives us a lot of options. Sign Soto and Fried, and trade Abreu + for more pitching and call it an offseason.
I don’t really understand why the consensus is that this team needs pitching so much more than hitting. Perhaps people haven’t adjusted to how much of a hitter’s park Fenway has been recently?

The 2024 Red Sox had an OPS+ of 104 and an ERA+ of 106. Granted the team allowed a ton of unearned runs but that’s mostly on the infield defense.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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It’s very easily solved: they can simply offer more money.
And then the Mets (or Yankees) offer more money than that. And round and round it goes. At what point is it no longer "they're too cheap" and more "that other team is fucking nuts"?
 

scott bankheadcase

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My takeaway from that article is that if the red sox do outbid everyone (they won't), he might actually agree to come.

Hopefully it means they're still seen as a legit franchise to free agents, even if this one isn't coming here.
 

Hank Scorpio

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My takeaway from that article is that if the red sox do outbid everyone (they won't), he might actually agree to come.

Hopefully it means they're still seen as a legit franchise to free agents, even if this one isn't coming here.
I'm hoping he got turned off over how Judge got eaten alive for his playoff performance, and maybe he hates Boone and Cole for some reason.
 

BaseballJones

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What makes Soto so attractive is not that he's great. Because he obviously is. Like, all-time great talent (at least with the bat).

It's that he just had his 25-year old season. We think of Jarren Duran as this exciting young player, but Soto is two years younger than Duran. He just turned 26 years of age.
 

radsoxfan

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I don’t really understand why the consensus is that this team needs pitching so much more than hitting. Perhaps people haven’t adjusted to how much of a hitter’s park Fenway has been recently?
You can't just look at last year, need to look at the next few years down the line.

Obviously Soto is great and a major upgrade on whoever he replaces, but the Red Sox should have pretty good options to fill out the lineup given their top prospects.

Some of the minor league bats may flame out and there could always be trades, but if you look at the current major and minor league players likely to contribute for the next 3-5 years.....we need pitching.

I'm all for getting Soto within reason, I just assume its going to be some massive 50-60M per season contract taking him towards age 40. At that price, I'd probably lean toward diversifying with arms and tinkering on the edges at the plate (while hoping one or more of Anthony, Campbell, Mayer, Teel really pop).
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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You can't just look at last year, need to look at the next few years down the line.

Obviously Soto is great and a major upgrade on whoever he replaces, but the Red Sox should have pretty good options to fill out the lineup given their top prospects.

Some of the minor league bats may flame out and there could always be trades, but if you look at the current major and minor league players likely to contribute for the next 3-5 years.....we need pitching.

I''m all for getting Soto, I just assume its going to be some massive 50-60M per season contract taking him towards age 40. At that price, I'd probably lean toward diversifying with arms and tinkering on the edges at the plate.
Soto is a 26 year old 8 WAR player. You should be moving heaven and earth to get him on your team.
 

BaseballJones

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Soto is a 26 year old 8 WAR player. You should be moving heaven and earth to get him on your team.
Well hang on just for a second here. I agree with your larger point, but here's Soto's bWAR numbers, from highest to lowest:

7.9 (2024)
7.1 (2021)
5.5 (2023)
5.5 (2022 - combined with 2 teams)
5.0 (2019)
3.0 (2018)

So in his six full seasons (not counting 2020 for obvious reasons), he's averaged 5.6 bWAR. Which is terrific. But that's a long way from being a consistent 8 WAR player (by bWAR, he's never once even reached 8). Duran this past season put up 8.7 bWAR.
 

joe dokes

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I will readily acknowledge the difference in reporting, but that will make zero difference in our skepticism towards ownership. Nor should it.

Until they ACTUALLY spend real money on a free agent superstar, then all posturing on their part and the reporting of it should be viewed with extreme prejudice.
So if Cohen pays Soto $1billion, you wont believe the Sox offered $750m, no matter who says so?
 

radsoxfan

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Soto is a 26 year old 8 WAR player. You should be moving heaven and earth to get him on your team.
I'm not sure what contract offer "moving heaven and earth" equates to, but there is a reasonable price for everything. Even HOF players.

If the Mets offer 12/700 with no deferrals I don't think we should try to beat it. It's not our money, but unless the payroll is going to be far higher than anyone expects, it's probably not a good use of resources.

Soto is a great hitter but already not a very good OF and will likely be a DH most of this contract. Plenty of big long term contracts for HOF hitters look awful half way through. I assume Soto really is 26, but if there is even a tiny chance he's older, that's even more risk.
 

joe dokes

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Whatever the WAR numbers, this is Manny redux, with different numbers and a younger player. I don't know if they want to spend the necessary dough, but I'm confident that they realize this is different than nearly every other available FA over the last many years.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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Well hang on just for a second here. I agree with your larger point, but here's Soto's bWAR numbers, from highest to lowest:

7.9 (2024)
7.1 (2021)
5.5 (2023)
5.5 (2022 - combined with 2 teams)
5.0 (2019)
3.0 (2018)

So in his six full seasons (not counting 2020 for obvious reasons), he's averaged 5.6 bWAR. Which is terrific. But that's a long way from being a consistent 8 WAR player (by bWAR, he's never once even reached 8). Duran this past season put up 8.7 bWAR.
He's 26 though, this is his literal prime. He's not 29 or 30. I am extremely confident he will be an 8 WAR player over at least the next 3 or 4 years.
 

BaseballJones

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He's 26 though, this is his literal prime. He's not 29 or 30. I am extremely confident he will be an 8 WAR player over at least the next 3 or 4 years.
I mean yeah, he's the perfect guy to give a humongous contract to. I'm just saying that he's not yet once been an 8 bWAR player. He's only been over 5.5 twice in his career so far.
 

SouthernBoSox

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Well hang on just for a second here. I agree with your larger point, but here's Soto's bWAR numbers, from highest to lowest:

7.9 (2024)
7.1 (2021)
5.5 (2023)
5.5 (2022 - combined with 2 teams)
5.0 (2019)
3.0 (2018)

So in his six full seasons (not counting 2020 for obvious reasons), he's averaged 5.6 bWAR. Which is terrific. But that's a long way from being a consistent 8 WAR player (by bWAR, he's never once even reached 8). Duran this past season put up 8.7 bWAR.
He's 26 years old. Including his rookie year when he was EIGHTEEN years old at the major leagues isn't appropriate.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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Whatever the WAR numbers, this is Manny redux, with different numbers and a younger player. I don't know if they want to spend the necessary dough, but I'm confident that they realize this is different than nearly every other available FA over the last many years.
I'm sure they realize it. We are arguing about their willingness to actually do anything differently this time no matter the talent up for grabs.
 

Max Power

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He's 26 though, this is his literal prime. He's not 29 or 30. I am extremely confident he will be an 8 WAR player over at least the next 3 or 4 years.
That doesn't seem particularly likely playing left field at Fenway. His defensive WAR will be negative. He'd have to have a season with the bat like Judge to make that math work.
 

nvalvo

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I think we have a window opening for 2025-30 and we should try to win a title.

Soto helps with that, obviously. But he and Devers and Casas are kind of all future DH-type lefty sluggers. So I’d judge that a Soto deal may preclude a Casas extension; which, fine. And it might mean that Devers or Soto needs to stay in the field for longer than anticipated; likely Soto in LF or Devers, eventually, at 1B.
 

BaseballJones

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Yea, they are. When a player puts up 5.5 WAR as a 23 and 24 year old and its their "bad" years you are looking at one of the best young players in the history of baseball.
100% agree. He's a total stud and worth an absolute dump truck full of money.

I was simply responding to SJH's claim that he's an 8 WAR player. 5.5 is a long way from 8. Maybe he'll be 8+ for the next six seasons. But he's yet to be an 8 bWAR player, and two of his last three seasons he's been 5.5. Not close to 8.

The defense is iffy. The bat is phenomenal. I'd love to have him. He's just not yet been an 8 bWAR player yet.
 

simplicio

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He also didn't play a full season in MLB in 2018, he started in A ball and played 39 games in the minors, so adding his WAR total into your averages is bad data.
 

Sandwich Pick

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LAD aren't in, according to most reports I’ve read. The biggest reason is that Soto (reportedly) wants no deferrals, and that sort of contract would not go over well in a clubhouse of stars who all took deferrals.
According to their owner, Phils look to be out, too.

https://www.philliesnation.com/2024/11/philadelphia-phillies-juan-soto-john-middleton-university-of-pennsylvania-mlb-free-agency-offseason/

“I’m afraid Juan Soto wants to be in New York, and I don’t mind being a stalking horse … but I get the feeling, we’ll probably say, you know what, we’ll probably not win this.”
DD also saying "Don't get your hopes up"

At the GM meetings in San Antonio, Dave Dombrowski, while alluding to Soto, echoed a similar sentiment about pursuing star players.

“Put it this way: Our ownership allows us to do a lot of things, but sometimes that’s not what you need,” Dombrowski told reporters, including Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer. “We have a lot of good star players on our team. You can read that as you wish.”
 

pdub

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I apologize for posting this in advance because I can't recall the source and don't want to create a rabbit hole. Does anyone remember some news going around saying that Soto rejected WSH's extension offer for reasons other than money? This was a few years ago when they offered him approximately $430M to stay,
 

John Marzano Olympic Hero

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I want the Sox to sign Soto, obviously. But I don't think that they will. And with all the dust that they're kicking up about taking meetings and being "really serious" is going to bite the team in the ass when they sign their backup plan, whether that's Teoscar Hernandez or whomever. But this is the real cost of pulling back on the spending in the last five years, trading a generational talent (FIRSTIES ON MOOKIE MENTION!) and trying to gaslight your fanbase on the "full throttle" comments of last year.

Ownership's word is mud around these parts (not SoSH, but Boston) and when Soto puts on his pinstripes (be it as a Yankee or Met), the Sox are going to get clowned and then an apathetic shrug.

When you're not serious about putting a competitive team on the field for years, no one is going to buy it when you say you are. To use an inverse example, when the Sox were outbid for Jose Contreras moons ago, nobody put the blame on the Sox because they knew that they were trying their best to put a good team together. The Yankees just beat them. But if they don't get Soto, IDK, I think that the prevailing thought will be that the Sox were never serious and that this was all window dressing.
 

BaseballJones

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He also didn't play a full season in MLB in 2018, he started in A ball and played 39 games in the minors, so adding his WAR total into your averages is bad data.
Sure, just go with the last 4 years then. 7.1, 5.5, 5.5, 7.9 = 6.5 bWAR. Excellent player, no doubt. Young, exciting, incredible hitter, a guy we would be fools not to pursue and offer a crap ton of money to. Just not yet an 8 bWAR player is all I'm saying. That's not a matter of opinion. That's a matter of fact.
 

simplicio

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Sure, just go with the last 4 years then. 7.1, 5.5, 5.5, 7.9 = 6.5 bWAR. Excellent player, no doubt. Young, exciting, incredible hitter, a guy we would be fools not to pursue and offer a crap ton of money to. Just not yet an 8 bWAR player is all I'm saying. That's not a matter of opinion. That's a matter of fact.
That's the third most valuable player in baseball over the last four years after Ohtani and Judge. (edit: by fWAR cause bref interfaces for leaderboards are terrible)
 

SouthernBoSox

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I want the Sox to sign Soto, obviously. But I don't think that they will. And with all the dust that they're kicking up about taking meetings and being "really serious" is going to bite the team in the ass when they sign their backup plan, whether that's Teoscar Hernandez or whomever. But this is the real cost of pulling back on the spending in the last five years, trading a generational talent (FIRSTIES ON MOOKIE MENTION!) and trying to gaslight your fanbase on the "full throttle" comments of last year.

Ownership's word is mud around these parts (not SoSH, but Boston) and when Soto puts on his pinstripes (be it as a Yankee or Met), the Sox are going to get clowned and then an apathetic shrug.

When you're not serious about putting a competitive team on the field for years, no one is going to buy it when you say you are. To use an inverse example, when the Sox were outbid for Jose Contreras moons ago, nobody put the blame on the Sox because they knew that they were trying their best to put a good team together. The Yankees just beat them. But if they don't get Soto, IDK, I think that the prevailing thought will be that the Sox were never serious and that this was all window dressing.
What do you mean by it will bite them in the ass when they sign a back up plan?
 

BaseballJones

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Now fWAR is a little different. His last four years, fWAR: 6.8, 3.7, 6.0, 8.1 = 6.2 avg, but obviously one down year there.
 

BaseballJones

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That's the third most valuable player in baseball over the last four years after Ohtani and Judge. (edit: by fWAR cause bref interfaces for leaderboards are terrible)
Yeah, he's incredible. I'm not disputing that. Not even close to disputing that. All I was doing was pushing back on the claim that he's an 8 WAR player. That's it.
 

RedOctober3829

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I think we have a window opening for 2025-30 and we should try to win a title.

Soto helps with that, obviously. But he and Devers and Casas are kind of all future DH-type lefty sluggers. So I’d judge that a Soto deal may preclude a Casas extension; which, fine. And it might mean that Devers or Soto needs to stay in the field for longer than anticipated; likely Soto in LF or Devers, eventually, at 1B.
If they do sign Soto, why not go all out and trade Casas for Vlad Jr and complete the superstar Dominican trio?
 

RedOctober3829

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I want the Sox to sign Soto, obviously. But I don't think that they will. And with all the dust that they're kicking up about taking meetings and being "really serious" is going to bite the team in the ass when they sign their backup plan, whether that's Teoscar Hernandez or whomever. But this is the real cost of pulling back on the spending in the last five years, trading a generational talent (FIRSTIES ON MOOKIE MENTION!) and trying to gaslight your fanbase on the "full throttle" comments of last year.

Ownership's word is mud around these parts (not SoSH, but Boston) and when Soto puts on his pinstripes (be it as a Yankee or Met), the Sox are going to get clowned and then an apathetic shrug.

When you're not serious about putting a competitive team on the field for years, no one is going to buy it when you say you are. To use an inverse example, when the Sox were outbid for Jose Contreras moons ago, nobody put the blame on the Sox because they knew that they were trying their best to put a good team together. The Yankees just beat them. But if they don't get Soto, IDK, I think that the prevailing thought will be that the Sox were never serious and that this was all window dressing.
I mean, if they go on and sign backup plan guys like Teoscar and add 1-2 top SP options I would say that's what you're supposed to do. If they whiff on Plan A and Plan B, then we've got something to complain about. As a certain talk show in Boston says, I will not get them in trouble for something they haven't done yet.
 

jon abbey

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Yeah, he's incredible. I'm not disputing that. Not even close to disputing that. All I was doing was pushing back on the claim that he's an 8 WAR player. That's it.
Yep, the chances that the defensive side of things will drag him down (a bit) more and more going forward is pretty likely, especially if he can't be hidden in a small OF like Yankee Stadium RF or Fenway LF. That's not to say he isn't incredible, because he is.
 

John Marzano Olympic Hero

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What do you mean by it will bite them in the ass when they sign a back up plan?
I mean, their fan base is starting to getting hyped up for Soto. If they don't reel in this big fish, people aren't going to be happy. And it's going to be another avalanche of "The Sox don't want to spend", "The Sox aren't serious", "Henry is cheap", "Henry only cares about Liverpool or the Penguins or his golf team or his racing team or his potential NBA franchise or being a real estate tycoon".

Signing Soto would improve the credibility of this franchise to a lot of folks in New England.
 

John Marzano Olympic Hero

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I mean, if they go on and sign backup plan guys like Teoscar and add 1-2 top SP options I would say that's what you're supposed to do. If they whiff on Plan A and Plan B, then we've got something to complain about. As a certain talk show in Boston says, I will not get them in trouble for something they haven't done yet.
You're right. That's what you're supposed to do, but you can sense that the fandom's excitement level is getting raised for Soto to come to Boston. For whatever reason, if the Sox don't do it, fans aren't going to be happy.

I think that the next logical question would be, "So what do you think that they should do?" and I'd answer, this is exactly what they're supposed to be doing. I'm glad that they've thrown their hats in the ring for Soto and are making, what appears to be, a serious effort to land the guy. However, the last five offseasons have been, "Oh, the Sox were in on free agent X and Y but they just didn't go the extra mile to get the deal done." This chipped away at the owner's credibility for a lot of the fandom.

Put it this way, I think that there's more riding on the Sox signing Soto in how the team is perceived than the perception of the Mets or Yankees.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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Soto is 26 and coming off a 7.9 WAR season. He's going to get AT LEAST 400 million. Never have the Sox been close to giving out that kind of deal. They'd rather pay $140 million for a Story and get nothing then pay $400-$500 million for a Soto type and risk getting "only" $350 million of value.

Enjoy the reports but there's good reason to think nothing will come of this.
There's only been 7 contracts In history that have topped $300M, and the large majority of those are players the Sox were never going to really be in on. The Sox not being close to giving out $400M isn't that surprising, and I don't think it is in indicator that they wouldn't be willing to make a sizeable offer to Soto.
 
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I don’t really understand why the consensus is that this team needs pitching so much more than hitting. Perhaps people haven’t adjusted to how much of a hitter’s park Fenway has been recently?

The 2024 Red Sox had an OPS+ of 104 and an ERA+ of 106. Granted the team allowed a ton of unearned runs but that’s mostly on the infield defense.
I know our starters had good numbers last year, but Houck has done that once, not sure that makes him an ace. Also, our bullpen sucked down the stretch, but that was partly because our starters started to wear down. I would like to see 1 quality arm added to the rotation.
 

chrisfont9

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There's one possible outcome where the Sox offer the full boat -- and their fans actually believe that this occurred (the hard part) -- but Soto just chooses New York over Boston... and paints a giant, A-Rod sized target on himself for Sox fans. That's not a criticism of Soto, or comparison to a complicated guy like A-Rod. It wouldn't even be all that mean-spirited. But it would spice up the rivalry, if the Sox' plan B pushes them into contention.
 

chawson

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I think that the next logical question would be, "So what do you think that they should do?" and I'd answer, this is exactly what they're supposed to be doing. I'm glad that they've thrown their hats in the ring for Soto and are making, what appears to be, a serious effort to land the guy. However, the last five offseasons have been, "Oh, the Sox were in on free agent X and Y but they just didn't go the extra mile to get the deal done." This chipped away at the owner's credibility for a lot of the fandom.
Sure, but several of the last five offseasons were very atypical. In two of them we had a new GM/POBO entering the organization, another was during the height of the pandemic (arguably two of them) were, and another was during the CBA lockout.

They've been consistent in saying they wanted to wait until they had a good foundation to acquire free agents. So here we are. Doesn't mean they are locks to sign Soto, but I'm not convinced that their behavior the last five offseasons (over which they signed two guys to nine-figure deals and another to a $90 million deal) is necessarily how they'll act going forward.

I'll also say that from this point, the team's future prospects would look worse had we signed Xander Bogaerts, even at most team-friendly deals people fantasized about. I feel like we could allow that some of the "not going the extra mile" is strategic and not the result of failure or incompetence, as many believe.
 

BigSoxFan

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If they do sign Soto, why not go all out and trade Casas for Vlad Jr and complete the superstar Dominican trio?
They wouldn’t be able to afford Vlad’s next deal along with Soto. However, a Casas for Vlad deal makes some sense to me from a roster balancing standpoint. There’s your impact RH hitter.
 

manny

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I mean, their fan base is starting to getting hyped up for Soto. If they don't reel in this big fish, people aren't going to be happy. And it's going to be another avalanche of "The Sox don't want to spend", "The Sox aren't serious", "Henry is cheap", "Henry only cares about Liverpool or the Penguins or his golf team or his racing team or his potential NBA franchise or being a real estate tycoon".

Signing Soto would improve the credibility of this franchise to a lot of folks in New England.
I agree with this to an extent. If they don't get Soto, the fan base will be unhappy, but if they come away with Fried, Crochet, Teoscar, and a top bullpen arm (as an example), I think the fanbase will still be satisfied with the offseason and buy into ownership's commitment to winning. If they miss out on Soto and the offseason ends up with something like Eovaldi and some other spare parts, ownership will be (rightfully) crucified. I also think for this reason, I disagree with anyone arguing they are pursuing Soto just for PR purposes to tell the fanbase they tried. In a vacuum, and considering the past few offseasons and state of the fanbase, I think never being reported to pursue Soto would go over better than getting the fanbase excited and missing out on him (as mentioned above, the excitement/disappointment will also depend greatly on other moves).

As a bit of wish casting and devil's advocate, Cohen/NYM surely has some limit. Otherwise, why did they not offer Yamamoto $400 million (or whatever necessary to get him) last offseason? Or sign every big FA available? I get that the Mets did not think they would compete this past season, but if Cohen has truly limitless pockets (as some are acting like he does), then he could sign every big FA, keep the ones who are doing well, pay off the ones he doesn't want, etc. (I acknowledge he did do this in a way with Verlander and Scherzer). I also hold out hope that maybe in Cohen's first year as an owner he thought it was easy enough to just buy a championship and maybe once he learned it does not quite work that way, he will not be as eager to just pour endless sums into the team. Yes, Cohen has deeper pockets than anyone else. And maybe Soto is his white whale. But he is someone with a financial background, and I think he may be more calculated and actually have limits as opposed to the blank check some are acting like he will present Soto.

Finally, if I'm correct on the income tax, MA is 9% and NY is 10.9% (CA is 13.3%), so perhaps even if the Sox come in slightly lower than NYY/NYM their offer can actually be more or less financially equivalent.
 

moondog80

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If they have a winning team the fans will be happy. With or withouht Soto. If they do not, they won't. With or withouht Soto. It's as simple as that.
 

Sausage in Section 17

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Remember, even in the fifteen + years the team was top 3 in payroll, even THEN they never outbid NYY for a premiere FA that both teams wanted (Texiera, El Duqué). They signed guys who the Yankees weren't in on for whatever reason (Manny, Damon), or traded for and then extended guys (Pedro, Beckett). Maybe they beat the Yanks out for Schilling, I don't remember? My sense is the Red Sox will spend along the lines of Fried, Scott, Hernandez, but will have a hard time winning an auction for Soto.
Have we forgotten that, as the Yankees generally outspend the Sox for almost any free agent both teams want, the Sox have been more successful than the Yankees following this approach? It's like when Trump calls Biden sleepy, but also suggest he's a calculating mastermind. Both can't be true. The Sox are only focused on profits, and won't do what it takes to win, despite having more recent success than any other team? OK...

There is a price where not signing Juan Soto is the correct choice. Where investing so heavily in one player leaves you so thin on the rest of your roster you can't compete. Hell, it is easily argued that while the Yankees made the WS, their overinvestment on Cole, Judge, and Soto, and throwing big free agent money at middling players like Rodon made them unable to field a roster that wasn't full of other holes.

It would be great to have Juan Soto, but do we want to be the Mets? What have they won? If we can only get him at a price that is likely to hamstring the rest of the roster, then I HOPE we bid him up so high that if the Yankees sign him, they have little left over for the rest of the team. You don't necessarily have to sign the player to make sure your club is in the best position. That's how you really win the game in the long run.
 
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simplicio

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 11, 2012
9,960
They wouldn’t be able to afford Vlad’s next deal along with Soto. However, a Casas for Vlad deal makes some sense to me from a roster balancing standpoint. There’s your impact RH hitter.
Casas hits LHP fine. He's not part of the problem.
 

bsj

Renegade Crazed Genius
SoSH Member
Dec 6, 2003
22,974
Central NJ SoSH Chapter
I'm super cynical here. I feel like Soto is using the Sox specifically to drive up the price in NY.

I feel like you can't let him out of that room without a contract if you have any real hope of signing him, even if that means significantly overpaying.