Boston’s taxing pursuit of Juan Soto is over. (Mets)

BigSoxFan

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I wonder how likely it is that we see a $1B contract in the next 10-15 years. The "next Soto" in terms of production/value will want to set the bar higher. What will Gunnar Henderson get?
You’d need someone who breaks in early and doesn’t take the security of a discounted LT deal. Imagine if Acuna had been a FA after his ridiculous 2023 season.
 

chrisfont9

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Yeah he would.

If Juan Soto didn’t want to get paid he would’ve signed with the Nats when they made a very healthy offer in 2022. He would’ve signed with the Pads when they improved on that offer in 2023. And he would’ve done so when the Yanks improved on THAT offer during the 2024 season.

You don’t team up with Scott Boras, reject three offers in three places where he was reportedly very happy, if money isn’t the motivating factor.

If money isn’t what he’s looking for, what is?
When did Soto hire Boras? Just a guess but possible motivations would also include just working with the most experienced team for a free agency that is on another stratosphere from the norm. He's comfortable with *something* about Boras, and yeah, getting top dollar is very likely one part, but not all.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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When did Soto hire Boras? Just a guess but possible motivations would also include just working with the most experienced team for a free agency that is on another stratosphere from the norm. He's comfortable with *something* about Boras, and yeah, getting top dollar is very likely one part, but not all.
Pretty sure he's been with Boras since he became a professional.
 

Yaz4Ever

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I could be Soto's agent and he's still get PAID. Obviously, Boras et als bring a lot more to the table, but this isn't a client he has to work super hard on. Soto sells himself.

Could he be all about the money? Sure. BUT, there's also a pretty good chance that he has places that he'd like to play over others and that will affect who he signs with.

I'm old enough to remember that Tony Gwynn stayed with the Padres and upset the MLBPA, but he did what was right for him. I'm pretty sure I've ready a number of times that Vlad Guerrero, Jr. despises the Yankees and won't ever play for them. Does that mean he'd sign with them if they offered him a boatload of money? Maybe, maybe not. I'm just saying that there is likely a lot to be said about his affinity for Papi and Pedro and, if numbers are where he's comfortable, a lower offer may win.

Then again, I could just be naive and hopeful because I really want this guy in our lineup for what will likely be the bulk of the rest of my life.
 

finnVT

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It's an interesting thought experiment to consider if (1) you expect the Mets to blow everyone out of the water financially, and (2) Soto to (more or less) take the best offer, how do you try to be competitive if you're Boston? Leaning on Ortiz, fandom, etc maybe gets you a bit, but I agree with the general sentiment here that it's hard to see Soto leaving substantial money on the table just because of that.

I think if it were me, I'd be looking at deal structures that are appealing to Soto. I.e., maybe you can't match total dollars over the 12-15 year contract, but maybe you're willing to front-load more than others, so that the pre-opt out amount is higher. I.e., if the mets are offering (say) 14/600 (~43m AAV) with an opt-out after year 4, but want it pretty flat over the years, would Soto prefer 4/200 (pre-opt out) + 10/350 (post-opt out)? That's 50m lower (14/550, or 39AAV over the full lifetime of the deal), but 30m more over the first 4 years. If his plan is to very likely opt out, then the lower deal is potentially the better long-term bet, despite the lower total value, while still providing a lot of insurance for injury/performance/etc reasons that might make opting out unappealing. And I could see that being more appealing to ownership like Boston's, where you accept a higher AAV in the case of an opt-out, in exchange for a lower AAV if the deal ends up running the full course.
 

Yaz4Ever

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I'd like to make it clear that I don't think Soto would ever entertain an offer of $550M from Boston if the Mets were offering $650M. But I DO think that if the offers are relatively close - $575 vs $600, say, - he could easily decide he prefers one team to the other and chooses the team that may not be offering the most cash but has (ugh) intangibles for him.

We can't lowball and ask Papi to make him see past it.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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It's an interesting thought experiment to consider if (1) you expect the Mets to blow everyone out of the water financially, and (2) Soto to (more or less) take the best offer, how do you try to be competitive if you're Boston? Leaning on Ortiz, fandom, etc maybe gets you a bit, but I agree with the general sentiment here that it's hard to see Soto leaving substantial money on the table just because of that.

I think if it were me, I'd be looking at deal structures that are appealing to Soto. I.e., maybe you can't match total dollars over the 12-15 year contract, but maybe you're willing to front-load more than others, so that the pre-opt out amount is higher. I.e., if the mets are offering (say) 14/600 (~43m AAV) with an opt-out after year 4, but want it pretty flat over the years, would Soto prefer 4/200 (pre-opt out) + 10/350 (post-opt out)? That's 50m lower (14/550, or 39AAV over the full lifetime of the deal), but 30m more over the first 4 years. If his plan is to very likely opt out, then the lower deal is potentially the better long-term bet, despite the lower total value, while still providing a lot of insurance for injury/performance/etc reasons that might make opting out unappealing. And I could see that being more appealing to ownership like Boston's, where you accept a higher AAV in the case of an opt-out, in exchange for a lower AAV if the deal ends up running the full course.
This idea seems like the best way for the Sox to compete financially. As I understand it, until he opts out, the operating AAV would be the one based on the full contract (the lower number). Once he opts out, the previous years' numbers are revised and appropriate penalties levied retroactively. However, I don't think they can apply draft penalties if the draft to which it would apply has already taken place. So if the Sox are, say $38M over the cap in 2026 and he opts out after 2028, that 2026 figure might be revised to $42M over the cap. They can pay the additional cash that would cause them to owe but the 2027 draft can't be changed.

Seems like an ideal way to make some or all of 2025-2028 a period of exceeding the cap on par with the 2018-2019 Dombrowski splurge, and possibly not have it affect the draft at all.
 

joe dokes

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You think if someone (the A’s in this scenario) offered Juan Soto $1B and the Yankees (let’s say) offered him $660M he’d leave $340M on the table?

Okay. I don’t know what to tell you but:

Boras wouldn’t allow him to do that.
The MLBPA wouldn’t allow him to do that.
I doubt any of Soto’s family would allow him to do that.

The guy has already won a World Series and he’s getting paid a billion dollars. Why wouldn’t you play in Sacramento and then go to Vegas in three years?
You're assuming there's an opt-out in there. Since those are always good for the team, why would he sign one? ;)
 

Hank Scorpio

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I, for one, would leave significant money on the table to play where I would want to play if I was a MLB player.

My short list would be: Boston, LA, San Diego, and Colorado if they had their shit together.

New York would be completely off the table, because I hate that place. It smells disgusting, it’s filthy, the people suck, it’s way too congested, and after 2-3 hours in NYC, I can’t wait to get the fuck out. I’ve only ever been there 5 times for a day or two max, and I’m already over it and burnt out on it.

Gimme a quiet house in the hills or with a mountain view.

Not interested in that “what it’s like to be rich in NYC” life either. I really don’t care about anything happening in that cesspool.

Granted, I’m not Juan Soto. But I’ll never pass up an opportunity to shit on NYC. I hope he feels the same way I feel.
 

bsj

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Going to Yankee stadium, the experience of the Bronx, just sucks. These guys arent choppering in. They are dealing with the same 2 hours of traffic we all are. Not sure why thats a draw.
 

canyoubelieveit

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I, for one, would leave significant money on the table to play where I would want to play if I was a MLB player.

My short list would be: Boston, LA, San Diego, and Colorado if they had their shit together.

New York would be completely off the table, because I hate that place. It smells disgusting, it’s filthy, the people suck, it’s way too congested, and after 2-3 hours in NYC, I can’t wait to get the fuck out. I’ve only ever been there 5 times for a day or two max, and I’m already over it and burnt out on it.

Gimme a quiet house in the hills or with a mountain view.

Not interested in that “what it’s like to be rich in NYC” life either. I really don’t care about anything happening in that cesspool.

Granted, I’m not Juan Soto. But I’ll never pass up an opportunity to shit on NYC. I hope he feels the same way I feel.
I want to marry this post.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Going to Yankee stadium, the experience of the Bronx, just sucks. These guys arent choppering in. They are dealing with the same 2 hours of traffic we all are. Not sure why thats a draw.
Geez I fucking live NYC and if I could live there in a brownstone in Brooklyn Heights during the baseball season and a home in some tropical island during the offseason that’d be ideal! Have a personal driver take you to your game every day? Yeah sign me up.
 

moondog80

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Everybody is being used for leverage against everybody. Boras wants the highest bidder and probably doesn't care who it is.
 

joe dokes

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Going to Yankee stadium, the experience of the Bronx, just sucks. These guys arent choppering in. They are dealing with the same 2 hours of traffic we all are. Not sure why thats a draw.
Taking the 4 to the Toilet is still pretty sweet. (Not that any players are doing that, like Greg Harris(?) taking the Green Line.
 

simplicio

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This is also the Sox being out of the bidding.
Huh?

(side note: having actually read the article to try to figure out what what you meant by that, I'm left with a real question: is Heyman having chatgpt write his articles? Or is he actually that spectacularly bland as a person?)
 

jon abbey

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Huh?

(side note: having actually read the article to try to figure out what what you meant by that, I'm left with a real question: is Heyman having chatgpt write his articles? Or is he actually that spectacularly bland as a person?)
He stopped trying years ago, I bet Boras pays him more than the Post does.
 

SouthernBoSox

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He stopped trying years ago, I bet Boras pays him more than the Post does.
So far today we’ve had two reports

1. The Red Sox have increased their offer
2. The Yankees have increased their offer

If you don’t see a “the Mets have increased their offer” within the next 24 hours, he’s signing with the Mets.
 

soxhop411

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Huh?

(side note: having actually read the article to try to figure out what what you meant by that, I'm left with a real question: is Heyman having chatgpt write his articles? Or is he actually that spectacularly bland as a person?)
I love how heyma. I mean boras throws in the possibility of a “MYSTERY TEAM” jumping into the bidding. He should be required to disclose when Boras ghost writes articles on Heymans behalf (/s)
The Yankees recently staged calls with star free agent starters Corbin Burnes and Max Fried, along with several other top available players, but remain almost solely focused on Soto and have not made offers to the pitchers, who might merely be part of the Yankees’ Plan B in case Soto goes to the Mets, Dodgers, Red Sox, Blue Jays or perhaps an unknown mystery team
The "Heyman" "Exclusive" is a dead giveaway.
Surely, this board cant be the only group of people who sees Heyman's words and Boaras's lips moving at the same time.
 

snowmanny

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This is also the Sox being out of the bidding.
This is all I could find about the Red Sox.

“Boston tried to sell Soto on Fenway Park being the perfect ballpark for him and is said to have had a productive meeting as well. The Red Sox are trying to make a free agent splash after basically sitting out the past few winters and seeing their fortunes fall.”

Of course, if Fenway is the best park for Soto then that’s a reason for the Red Sox offer to be higher than those of the other teams, not necessarily a reason for him to sign here for less.
 

Yelling At Clouds

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This is all I could find about the Red Sox.

“Boston tried to sell Soto on Fenway Park being the perfect ballpark for him and is said to have had a productive meeting as well. The Red Sox are trying to make a free agent splash after basically sitting out the past few winters and seeing their fortunes fall.”

Of course, if Fenway is the best park for Soto then that’s a reason for the Red Sox offer to be higher than those of the other teams, not necessarily a reason for him to sign here for less.
You probably knew this, but this seems to just be a repackaging of what he reported the other day (as linked in the text). So there's no new news about the Red Sox and Soto at the moment. Someone could maybe read his line about the Yankees "perhaps improving their standing" or whatever it says as the Yankees "passing" the Red Sox, but that seems like an interpretation that is not fully supported by the text.

I agree that this is all Boras trying to negotiate through the media and none of this means anything, for the record!
 

mefck

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I mean from central jersey it's still a 2 hour ride that ends standing on a jam packed subway car....pass
One thing to think about - ballplayers usually get to the park much earlier. Probably before rush hour hits.
 

Average Reds

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So at this point do we just throw away the whole "Soto was inquiring about the state of the farm system" reports? Because that would indicate it's not wholly about the money and he wants to play for an organization that's set up to contend in the long run as he commits to a long contract.
Yes, I think we can throw those away. They are reports leaked by team Boras to make as many clubs as possible feel as if they are *this close* to being the team he wants to play for.

“And for another $50 million …”

I mean from central jersey it's still a 2 hour ride that ends standing on a jam packed subway car....pass
Why would anyone assume that Juan Soto would live in central Jersey if he played for the Mets or Yankees?

If he signs a $600-$700 million contract, why wouldn’t he live in an Upper East Side penthouse and have a driver for his 15-20 minute commute to the stadium?

NYC is an absolutely glorious place for those with enough money to sand down the rough edges of city life.
 

bsj

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Yes, I think we can throw those away. They are reports leaked by team Boras to make as many clubs as possible feel as if they are *this close* to being the team he wants to play for.

“And for another $50 million …”



Why would anyone assume that Juan Soto would live in central Jersey if he played for the Mets or Yankees?

If he signs a $600-$700 million contract, why wouldn’t he live in an Upper East Side penthouse and have a driver for his 15-20 minute commute to the stadium?

NYC is an absolutely glorious place for those with enough money to sand down the rough edges of city life.
Sorry. I was responding to the last person who spoke to the virtues of the 4 train.
 

CKDexterHaven

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Yes, I think we can throw those away. They are reports leaked by team Boras to make as many clubs as possible feel as if they are *this close* to being the team he wants to play for.

“And for another $50 million …”



Why would anyone assume that Juan Soto would live in central Jersey if he played for the Mets or Yankees?

If he signs a $600-$700 million contract, why wouldn’t he live in an Upper East Side penthouse and have a driver for his 15-20 minute commute to the stadium?

NYC is an absolutely glorious place for those with enough money to sand down the rough edges of city life.
A house is a different experience from an apartment. No matter how much luxury you can afford, there are still disadvantages. I have to imagine it would be difficult for someone of that profile to enjoy the city. Can’t even walk outside of the building unless he’s getting straight into a waiting car. I love NYC, but a lot of that is because I can go anywhere I want without being bothered or noticed.
 

Mugsy's Jock

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I mean from central jersey it's still a 2 hour ride that ends standing on a jam packed subway car....pass
Sure, but ballplayers would be closer to the Hudson and the GWB, like in Saddle River or Alpine. Not more than a half hour drive when ballplayers would likely be making the drive.
 

Adirondack jack

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A house is a different experience from an apartment. No matter how much luxury you can afford, there are still disadvantages. I have to imagine it would be difficult for someone of that profile to enjoy the city. Can’t even walk outside of the building unless he’s getting straight into a waiting car. I love NYC, but a lot of that is because I can go anywhere I want without being bothered or noticed.
I am sure the stank of it all will subside as he balances his checkbook, eventually.

And just to keep this realistic, Soto is not singing in Boston even with the help of Papi or Sinatra.
 

Cassvt2023

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A house is a different experience from an apartment. No matter how much luxury you can afford, there are still disadvantages. I have to imagine it would be difficult for someone of that profile to enjoy the city. Can’t even walk outside of the building unless he’s getting straight into a waiting car. I love NYC, but a lot of that is because I can go anywhere I want without being bothered or noticed.
this makes little sense to me. NYC is packed with recognizable and famous people. One of the reasons many of them chose to live there is that they let you be. John Lennon is a perfect example. He couldn’t live in London and have normal life. And he was a freaking Beatle! NYC gave him the chance to be more anonymous, if that was even possible at the time. I’m pretty Juan Soto, with his 600m+ contract would be able to figure out housing, transportation, and quality of life in the city, yet not have to be recognized and hounded on the daily. Kinda big fish in a really massive pond.
 

BigSoxFan

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this makes little sense to me. NYC is packed with recognizable and famous people. One of the reasons many of them chose to live there is that they let you be. John Lennon is a perfect example. He couldn’t live in London and have normal life. And he was a freaking Beatle! NYC gave him the chance to be more anonymous, if that was even possible at the time. I’m pretty Juan Soto, with his 600m+ contract would be able to figure out housing, transportation, and quality of life in the city, yet not have to be recognized and hounded on the daily. Kinda big fish in a really massive pond.
Agreed. I know Damon lived in Midtown when he was a Yankee. Believe ARod too.
 

joe dokes

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Sorry. I was responding to the last person who spoke to the virtues of the 4 train.
If you live on the east side, the 4 express is fine. 5 or 6 stops from Union Sq.
You know who else didnt like the subway?
Lidle.
 

Cassvt2023

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Lennon didn't have the greatest time living in NYC either, fwiw.
he actually did, he loved the city and the freedom It brought him to live his life as anomalously as he could. except for that one day in December and one crazed lunatic. I appreciate your thoughtful posts, but the fact he was gunned down by a lunatic doesn’t mean he didn’t love the city. That said, I hope Boston is more attractive to Soto, Fried, or whoever else the Sox want to bring in to make the team better.
 

EvilEmpire

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I’m pretty Juan Soto, with his 600m+ contract would be able to figure out housing, transportation, and quality of life in the city, yet not have to be recognized and hounded on the daily. Kinda big fish in a really massive pond.
I'm guessing he already has.
 

Tokyo Sox

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he actually did, he loved the city and the freedom It brought him to live his life as anomalously as he could. except for that one day in December and one crazed lunatic.
So you're saying this could all come down to Soto's affinity for counter-culture?
 

YTF

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As part of the New York living situation for athletes there are a couple of things to consider concerning baseball players. Their in season experience (excluding playoffs) mostly consists of a six month time period. Half of that time you're on the road and when you are at home it's normally for no more than 7-10 days at a time and often during those stretches there may not be a day off. There's not a lot of down time for players. Of course that's true for any player in any city, but my guess is at least half the guys on the Yankees and Mets can afford, nice apartment living in the city on a temporary basis for the duration of their time there and the teams likely have resources that help situate players into a good living situation that takes their commute and various things into account.
 

Bread of Yaz

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As part of the New York living situation for athletes there are a couple of things to consider concerning baseball players. Their in season experience (excluding playoffs) mostly consists of a six month time period. Half of that time you're on the road and when you are at home it's normally for no more than 7-10 days at a time and often during those stretches there may not be a day off. There's not a lot of down time for players. Of course that's true for any player in any city, but my guess is at least half the guys on the Yankees and Mets can afford, nice apartment living in the city on a temporary basis for the duration of their time there and the teams likely have resources that help situate players into a good living situation that takes their commute and various things into account.
https://therealdeal.com/new-york/2023/04/15/yankees-slugger-aaron-judge-buys-manhattan-penthouse/
 

joe dokes

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Of course that's true for any player in any city, but my guess is at least half the guys on the Yankees and Mets can afford, nice apartment living in the city on a temporary basis for the duration of their time there and the teams likely have resources that help situate players into a good living situation that takes their commute and various things into account.
IIRC, much of Mussina's NY "courtship" involved looking at houses in the suburbs that his wife and kids liked.
 

mikcou

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My fault - this reduces the advantage from about 5% to about 3%, so the Sox have about a $20M advantage, not a $30M one.
NYC tax is completely optional - just don’t live in NYC and the tax doesn’t apply. Top state rate (which in NY doesn’t occur until 25M+) is only ~1% higher than MA. Once you take into account duty days out of state and the like, this is just completely noise. For example, a FL resident playing for the Yankees will certainly be better off than a MA resident playing for the Sox.

Soto isn’t making any part of his decision on tax rates between NY and MA. He just isn’t.
 

Traut

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this makes little sense to me. NYC is packed with recognizable and famous people. One of the reasons many of them chose to live there is that they let you be.
In Boston, athletes are the most famous and recognizable people in the city. In NYC, Juan Soto is unlikely to be the most famous person in his building let alone block.

If anyone really wants to be left alone, NYC is the place to do it. Whether you're the guy peeing in the subway station or some movie star it is truly a place where no one notices let alone cares. There's just so much more happening in NYC at any given moment it dilutes the attention that any one thing or person receives at a given moment.

Even NY sports fans and media aren't anywhere near as intense as a place like Philly.