Boston’s taxing pursuit of Juan Soto is over. (Mets)

[NJ_Sox_Fan]

If you’re the Red Sox, why not offer Soto a front loaded deal at a higher AAV? He’s going to want an opt out I would assume. Why not do something like 4/240, then an opt out, then backload the final 10 years so that they were 10/450. Would be a 14/690 total deal.

I’m horrible at guessing contracts, but I guess the main point is perhaps front loading the first four years and giving the opt out would be enticing?

 

[BaseballJones]

This was 2022 Soto:

View attachment 92340
So yeah, very likely a "bad" year driven by a ridiculously low .249 BABIP. All the underlying stats were elite, even if very slightly below his all time standards. But your projection for the next five seasons isn't realistic at all, I don't think it could even be described as a best case scenario. If he's a consistent 6-7 WAR guy for 5 years, you take that and run with it.

If he's a 6-7 WAR guy, and Abreu, making league minimum, is a 4-5 WAR guy (he was 3.7 this past year and is just getting started), it makes little sense to spend all that money on Soto (presumably he'd replace Abreu, who would be traded). Just spend that $$ on pitching instead. I have to think any team looking to sign Soto is thinking (hoping, anyway) that he's going to be much closer to 7-9 WAR on average over the next five years.

 

[LogansDad]

This was 2022 Soto:

View attachment 92340
So yeah, very likely a "bad" year driven by a ridiculously low .249 BABIP. All the underlying stats were elite, even if very slightly below his all time standards. But your projection for the next five seasons isn't realistic at all, I don't think it could even be described as a best case scenario. If he's a consistent 6-7 WAR guy for 5 years, you take that and run with it.

It's also the year he got traded in the middle of the season, and I think that had a pretty big effect on him. He was really bad for a couple weeks after the trade, IIRC.

Basically, I want him on my team, no matter the cost. I also want him NOT on the Yankees, no matter the cost.

Is that the highest tier?

Second highest tier. The highest tier is likely labeled "Mets Tier", but I am hoping that Soto can make the right decision and leave some money on the table to come play for the Red Sox.

 

[TapeAndPosts]

Soto did not have a 3.7 bWAR in 2022. He had a 3.7 bWAR for Washington, and another 1.8 bWAR for San Diego, for a total of 5.5, the exact same as 2023.

 

[rodderick]

If he's a 6-7 WAR guy, and Abreu, making league minimum, is a 4-5 WAR guy (he was 3.7 this past year and is just getting started), it makes little sense to spend all that money on Soto (presumably he'd replace Abreu, who would be traded). Just spend that $$ on pitching instead. I have to think any team looking to sign Soto is thinking (hoping, anyway) that he's going to be much closer to 7-9 WAR on average over the next five years.

I feel like you're vastly overestimating just how many players in the league are a good bet to provide 6-7 WAR year in and year out, especially among those that contribute little defensive value. The league leader in fWAR over the past five seasons hasn't managed to average 7 WAR per.

 

[Jed Zeppelin]

It also might bear some reflection to reality. Burnes and/or Fried would certainly make the rotation a lot better. But, IMO, the rotation is not in desperate need of upgrading. Just normal, "nearly everyone needs more better starters" need.

Count me as skeptical about any mega-deals for top of the market starting pitching. While they are certainly more inclined to take an aggressive approach this offseason in general, that doesn't change the philosophy of the lever-pullers which is generally to avoid potentially cumbersome long-term huge money deals for the most fragile assets in the game especially past age 30.

I think what is more likely is that if they really like a middle-tier guy like Eflin or Lugo or Imanaga they won't be outbid in the same way as years past just to end up with a 1-2 year stopgap innings-eater type.

 

[joe dokes]

Count me as skeptical about any mega-deals for top of the market starting pitching. While they are certainly more inclined to take an aggressive approach this offseason in general, that doesn't change the philosophy of the lever-pullers which is generally to avoid potentially cumbersome long-term huge money deals for the most fragile assets in the game especially past age 30.

I think what is more likely is that if they really like a middle-tier guy like Eflin or Lugo or Imanaga they won't be outbid in the same way as years past just to end up with a 1-2 year stopgap innings-eater type.

I agree that that's the over-30 approach. and I not against it.
But i think that's why a trade for a younger pitcher is more likely than signing an older FA (assuming the older pitcher wants years).

 

[BaseballJones]

I feel like you're vastly overestimating just how many players in the league are a good bet to provide 6-7 WAR year in and year out, especially among those that contribute little defensive value. The league leader in fWAR over the past five seasons hasn't managed to average 7 WAR per.

I assume if they're going to pay him some $50 million a year, they are expecting him to be basically the best player in the game.

Judge:
2022: 10.5 war
2023: 4.5 war in just 105 games (pro-rated to 6.4 war over 150 games)
2024: 10.8 war
AVG: 9.2 war (if we pro-rate his 2023 season over 150 games)

Betts has averaged 8.2 war per 162 games over the course of his entire career.

 

[Hank Scorpio]

I’m obsessively checking this thread for news of a deal, like a _________________.

Someone finish the analogy for me.

 

[HangingW/ScottCooper]

While the McAdam report could be interpreted pessimistically, I think it is likely the Sox (and other Soto bidders) have told FAs that they will be strong bidders but need to see where Soto lands first. This particularly makes sense with Burnes and Snell since they share the same agent as Soto. I am guessing the high-price FAs will wait on Soto so the losing bidders on Soto can redirect their resources to them. Re Crochet, I am guessing the White Sox asked for a higher price than the Red Sox want to pay, so the Red Sox likely said come back to us if you lower your offer. I suspect the White Sox will either eventually go back to the Red Sox (even as a 'last offer' courtesy) and/or another team pays a lot more for Crochet than the Red Sox are willing.

With Soto, the Sox have to know: (1) he's already turned down a $440 million offer (when he had even less leverage); (2) the reports are that Soto's contract can/will end up between $600-700 million; and (3) all the reports that Cohen is willing to spend any amount. There is of course a chance the Red Sox are in this to just drive the price up for the Yankees, but I think the involvement of the Mets/Cohen does that sufficiently and the Sox know that. On the basis of #1, I assume the Sox initial offer is something like $500 mil for 12 years ($41.66 AAV). How much higher they are willing to go is anyone's guess. But it would surprise me if the Sox were not actually in this and not willing to spend at least $500 million.

FWIW, the $440 million offer was over 15 years and it was reportedly made in the summer of 2022. That's an AAV of $29.33. In 2023 he received $23 mil in arbitration and in 2024 he received $31. It was kind of a no-brainer for him to turn that deal down unless he knew he had some sort of Correa-esque injury risk.

 

[manny]

I’m obsessively checking this thread for news of a deal, like a _________________.

Someone finish the analogy for me.

Like a 2003-2004 Sox fan checking the SOSH ARod trade thread.

 

[LogansDad]

I’m obsessively checking this thread for news of a deal, like a _________________.

Someone finish the analogy for me.

"glutton for punishment"

 

[manny]

FWIW, the $440 million offer was over 15 years and it was reportedly made in the summer of 2022. That's an AAV of $29.33. In 2023 he received $23 mil in arbitration and in 2024 he received $31. It was kind of a no-brainer for him to turn that deal down unless he knew he had some sort of Correa-esque injury risk.

Yep, not doubting his decision which was obviously smart. Just saying I think there is no way he agrees for a lower total contract (even with fewer years) so the Sox FO has to be operating under the assumption that they need to bid $450+ (emphasis on the +) to even be taken seriously. I don't think a bid under $500 million gets you to the 'second round' of bids (unless it's something stupid like a short-term $75 mil AAV type of offer).

 

[simplicio]

I assume if they're going to pay him some $50 million a year, they are expecting him to be basically the best player in the game.

Judge:
2022: 10.5 war
2023: 4.5 war in just 105 games (pro-rated to 6.4 war over 150 games)
2024: 10.8 war
AVG: 9.2 war (if we pro-rate his 2023 season over 150 games)

Betts has averaged 8.2 war per 162 games over the course of his entire career.

Pro-rating games is cheating. Judge isn't a 9 WAR lock, he's a guy who's still capable of that in his early 30s but comes with serious concerns about his giant body breaking down with age. A massive part of what you're paying for in Soto is more years in which he's less likely to decline.

 

[HangingW/ScottCooper]

If he's a 6-7 WAR guy, and Abreu, making league minimum, is a 4-5 WAR guy (he was 3.7 this past year and is just getting started), it makes little sense to spend all that money on Soto (presumably he'd replace Abreu, who would be traded). Just spend that $$ on pitching instead. I have to think any team looking to sign Soto is thinking (hoping, anyway) that he's going to be much closer to 7-9 WAR on average over the next five years.

The problem with this line of thinking is that you never end up with the elite players. You may be more efficient in your approach to getting 90 wins, but you're never able to break that 90 win barrier or advance in the playoffs.

 

[rodderick]

I assume if they're going to pay him some $50 million a year, they are expecting him to be basically the best player in the game.

Judge:
2022: 10.5 war
2023: 4.5 war in just 105 games (pro-rated to 6.4 war over 150 games)
2024: 10.8 war
AVG: 9.2 war (if we pro-rate his 2023 season over 150 games)

Betts has averaged 8.2 war per 162 games over the course of his entire career.

Yeah, but I don't project these guys to be Cal Ripken and neither should the Red Sox front office. In his past 10 full seasons, Mookie Betts has accrued 6.7 WAR/year, which made him a top 3 position player in baseball and a HoF lock during that timeframe. That's how special reaching that threshold consistently is. The argument for Soto is precisely that he could perform slightly below the peak of what he has already demonstrated and still be worth his massive contract. He doesn't need to be a mythical 9 WAR/year guy for that.

 

[Sam Ray Not]

It's probably been noted — I haven't followed the whole thread — but Soto must understand that if he signs with the MFY he'll likely always be the KD there to Judge's Steph. Obviously we love Raffy, Duran, Casas, Kristian, et al. but there's a clearer opening in our hearts here for a new franchise player.

 

[BaseballJones]

Yeah, but I don't project these guys to be Cal Ripken and neither should the Red Sox front office. In his past 10 full seasons, Mookie Betts has accrued 6.7 WAR/year, which made him a top 3 position player in baseball and a HoF lock during that timeframe. That's how special reaching that threshold consistently is. The argument for Soto is precisely that he could perform slightly below the peak of what he has already demonstrated and still be worth his massive contract. He doesn't need to be a mythical 9 WAR/year guy for that.

So if we are going to say that the best *reasonable* projection for the next 5 years for Soto is that he averages 6.5 WAR/year, what do we think is reasonable to expect Abreu to average over that same time span? And then how much money ought the Sox spend to bridge the gap between those two projections?

 

[NJ_Sox_Fan]

It's probably been noted — I haven't followed the whole thread — but Soto must understand that if he signs with the MFY he'll likely always be the KD there to Judge's Steph. Obviously we love Raffy, Duran, Casas, Kristian, et al. but there's a clearer opening in our hearts here for a new franchise player.

Exactly. He can be the next franchise guy here following Pedro and then Ortiz.

 

[snowmanny]

It's probably been noted — I haven't followed the whole thread — but Soto must understand that if he signs with the MFY he'll likely always be the KD there to Judge's Steph.

You mean win a couple of WS MVPs and then go somewhere else? There are worse fates, although I get your point.

 

[Mike473]

While the McAdam report could be interpreted pessimistically, I think it is likely the Sox (and other Soto bidders) have told FAs that they will be strong bidders but need to see where Soto lands first. This particularly makes sense with Burnes and Snell since they share the same agent as Soto. I am guessing the high-price FAs will wait on Soto so the losing bidders on Soto can redirect their resources to them. Re Crochet, I am guessing the White Sox asked for a higher price than the Red Sox want to pay, so the Red Sox likely said come back to us if you lower your offer. I suspect the White Sox will either eventually go back to the Red Sox (even as a 'last offer' courtesy) and/or another team pays a lot more for Crochet than the Red Sox are willing.

With Soto, the Sox have to know: (1) he's already turned down a $440 million offer (when he had even less leverage); (2) the reports are that Soto's contract can/will end up between $600-700 million; and (3) all the reports that Cohen is willing to spend any amount. There is of course a chance the Red Sox are in this to just drive the price up for the Yankees, but I think the involvement of the Mets/Cohen does that sufficiently and the Sox know that. On the basis of #1, I assume the Sox initial offer is something like $500 mil for 12 years ($41.66 AAV). How much higher they are willing to go is anyone's guess. But it would surprise me if the Sox were not actually in this and not willing to spend at least $500 million.

It is possible we are seeing the start of the narrative shift away from big time free agents towards a focus on the kids coming up and injured players returning. Maybe the market for Soto scared them off the big moves. Too early to tell.

 

[Devizier]

If he's a 6-7 WAR guy, and Abreu, making league minimum, is a 4-5 WAR guy (he was 3.7 this past year and is just getting started), it makes little sense to spend all that money on Soto (presumably he'd replace Abreu, who would be traded). Just spend that $$ on pitching instead. I have to think any team looking to sign Soto is thinking (hoping, anyway) that he's going to be much closer to 7-9 WAR on average over the next five years.

One can only hope, but by Fangraphs projection, you have Soto at 6.9 fWAR next year against Abreu’s 1.8.

 

[BaseballJones]

One can only hope, but by Fangraphs projection, you have Soto at 6.9 fWAR next year against Abreu’s 1.8.

Why Abreu only 1.8? He just put up 3.5 bWAR in his first full season at age 25.

 

[simplicio]

So if we are going to say that the best *reasonable* projection for the next 5 years for Soto is that he averages 6.5 WAR/year, what do we think is reasonable to expect Abreu to average over that same time span? And then how much money ought the Sox spend to bridge the gap between those two projections?

I think this is beside the point.

We have Duran, Abreu, Rafaela, (Refsnyder,) Anthony and Campbell, with Montgomery a little further down the pipeline. We can only play three OF and it remains the greatest point of high-value redundancy in the system, short-mid term. The prudent thing to do this winter, regardless of where Soto signs, is to trade some of that excess for either an area of current need or similarly high value farm materials. Abreu, in my mind, remains the most obvious asset to trade for good current value from this group.

Then if you actually manage to convince Soto to come here you bodily shove someone out of the clubhouse. Doesn't even particularly matter who. That's a problem for future Sox.

 

[Devizier]

Why Abreu only 1.8? He just put up 3.5 bWAR in his first full season at age 25.

Mostly just regressing his defense. He is projected to have fewer games, but even if you adjust upwards it comes out to 2.1 fWAR.

 

[TapeAndPosts]

Why Abreu only 1.8? He just put up 3.5 bWAR in his first full season at age 25.

Because lots of players have breakout seasons and then revert the next year. I like Abreu too, but there is no reason to believe a single good season has set the bar for his performance going forward.

Nothing is certain in this world but Soto is much closer to a sure thing because he's done it over and over — he hasn't had a bWAR under 5.0 since he was 19 years old, 2020 aside (where he got 2.4 bWAR in a 60 game season).

 

[manny]

It is possible we are seeing the start of the narrative shift away from big time free agents towards a focus on the kids coming up and injured players returning. Maybe the market for Soto scared them off the big moves. Too early to tell.

Hasn't this been the narrative shift for the prior 3+ offseasons? And now this offseason it is supposed to change? Also, if they were not fairly prepared for what the Soto market would look like and they have gotten scared off not just his market, but the market of other players this offseason, that is a serious concern not just about their willingness to spend money but on the quality of their financial information, forecasting, and analytics. There is no indication that guys outside of Soto are expected to receive anything out of the ordinary. There was a report that last offseason the Sox were caught by surprise as to how high Yamamoto went for, which is perhaps a bit understandable given he was an international player (but still not the best look). After Soto's prior rejection of $440 million, Ohtani's deal last year, and all of the reports about Soto possibly setting records with his contract, it is almost unimaginable to me that they could be "scared off" by Soto's demands (particularly in relation to other players). They should know the general market for Soto and everyone else. I believe they do, and I believe they are heading into those markets and looking to spend. They may (likely will) lose out on Soto, but they should not be "scared" to pursue any other FA based on what Soto demands.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

The exact same conversation a year later with a new way of showing total ownership buy in.

I love how FSG has made poor ownership into the Fast & Furious franchise.

I am still staggered by the number of people who are certain what *the plan* is and can't wait to explain it to you and me. I mean beyond clip coupons for a few years without really trying.

Once again, aside from the people who just really love the Red Sox win or lose, the onus is on these guys not to just go try but execute. Trying banners are lame AF.

 

[simplicio]

I am still staggered by the number of people who are certain what *the plan* is and can't wait to explain it to you and me.

I could say the exact same thing about the folks that love to talk about Redbird.

 

[lexrageorge]

Hasn't this been the narrative shift for the prior 3+ offseasons? And now this offseason it is supposed to change? Also, if they were not fairly prepared for what the Soto market would look like and they have gotten scared off not just his market, but the market of other players this offseason, that is a serious concern not just about their willingness to spend money but on the quality of their financial information, forecasting, and analytics. There is no indication that guys outside of Soto are expected to receive anything out of the ordinary. There was a report that last offseason the Sox were caught by surprise as to how high Yamamoto went for, which is perhaps a bit understandable given he was an international player (but still not the best look). After Soto's prior rejection of $440 million, Ohtani's deal last year, and all of the reports about Soto possibly setting records with his contract, it is almost unimaginable to me that they could be "scared off" by Soto's demands (particularly in relation to other players). They should know the general market for Soto and everyone else. I believe they do, and I believe they are heading into those markets and looking to spend. They may (likely will) lose out on Soto, but they should not be "scared" to pursue any other FA based on what Soto demands.

The Sox are not "scared off" by the Soto negotiations (I agree with you that such a notion seems silly). However, realistically, the most optimistic projections would have the Sox as having about a 1-in-3 chance of winning the Soto sweepstakes, and those odds assume that the Sox, Mets, and Yankees are all equally likely to sign Soto (which, again, seems optimistic - and not because it's Henry being cheap either). So, the team does need to be doing due diligence on other players as well. There are some real good FA pitching targets available, and other players to be had by trade.

And, while the Sox don't want to be caught standing when the music stops, the other reality is that the rest of the free agent market is probably going to shake out after Soto chooses his next employer. So it will be hard for even the most connected media types to discern the action in the free agent market until then. McAdam, like others, are just guessing in many cases. The Sox seem to be running a tight ship when it comes to media leaks.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

I could say the exact same thing about the folks that love to talk about Redbird.

RedBird has been winning. The actual baseball team has not. That is the point.

They will watch out for their returns. We don't have to do it for them.

This team should pay whatever it takes to get Soto in Boston. And absent that they better have a good contingency or else you will be hearing from more than just a few of us.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Based on the vibes of this offseason, my FA mindset is pretty simple.

1. Sign Soto and offseason is a resounding success - everything else is basically gravy.

2. Sign Burnes or Fried along with a Tier 2 guy like Teoscar, Adames, etc. - it’s a solid offseason and one most would be reasonably happy with. I would be once the Soto disappointment wears off.

3. Don’t sign Soto, Burnes, OR Fried but sign a pupu platter of Tier 2/3 guys like Teoscar, Eovaldi, Flaherty, Adames, Scott, etc. - I would be pretty disappointed.

They obviously could make trades to enhance any of these situations but a trade for a guy like Crochet will sting a little. They really need to come away with a blue chip FA and I view Soto, Burnes, and Fried as the only guys in that category (excluding Roki since he’ll be in CA).

 

[Hank Scorpio]

So if we are going to say that the best *reasonable* projection for the next 5 years for Soto is that he averages 6.5 WAR/year, what do we think is reasonable to expect Abreu to average over that same time span? And then how much money ought the Sox spend to bridge the gap between those two projections?

After a certain point, of filling your lineup with (maybe cheap) 2-3 WAR guys, you kind of need to go big and pay a premium for those extra wins. If the best way to pay that premium is by upgrading Abreu to Soto is a fair question. But consider:

C: Wong/???/Teel - You can maybe upgrade here by replacing Wong with a good defensive catcher and hope that spills over into making the pitchers that much better, but this is not a position where we need to spend big. Really, what are the options?
1B: Casas - Cheap and controllable. No obvious upgrade on the free agent market. Maaaaybe if you can trade for Vlad Jr. and extend him, but how likely is that?
2B: Absolute black hole last season, but we have Campbell, and Grissom - one of whom will hopefully be an impact player. You could sign Adames to be a 2B, but he was a 3 WAR player as a SS. He's projected to get around $27M AAV. I don't think signing him to play 2B would be a good use of resources.
SS: Story - Solid defender, could have a decent year with the bat. Mayer waiting in the wings. Again, you could try to upgrade with Adames, but is it wise to bring a guy like Adames in for five or six years when we already have Story signed long term, plus Mayer, plus Campbell - who is also an option?
3B: Devers - You might make some modest gains by moving Devers to DH, and bringing in a guy like Bregman, Arenado or Adames to play 3B. But it's expensive, and not an otherworldly upgrade or anything. And this also presumes you're able to move Yoshida.
LF: Anthony (probably) - Top prospect in baseball, looks ready. And if you're going to move him in a trade (I wouldn't), your still looking at trying to replace him with Soto, or one of Hernandez/Santander... or O'Neill.
CF: Duran - still cheap, cost controlled, MVP level season last year. Good luck upgrading on him, even if he takes a step back.
RF: Abreu - Good defender, decent bat. Doesn't hit LHP. Really good trade value.
DH: Yoshida - Injured, pretty bad contract at this point. Probably can't easily be moved. You could probably upgrade this simply by having Devers and others rotate through while Rafaela/Campbell/Grissom/Refsnyder/Romy get starts around the diamond here and there. Or you could bring in a capable, but cheap RHB. Or Teoscar/Santander.

Basically, I think it boils down to... RF/LF (with Anthony playing one or the other), and DH are the most obvious places to upgrade our lineup. Possibly moving Devers to DH makes it a bit more complicated, but Soto and/or one of Teoscar/Santander are the most obvious fits for this offense. Maybe you end up paying him $48M a year for 4 more wins than Abreu would have given you, but those wins have to come from somewhere. How are you adding 4 wins over Story/Mayer? Or Casas? Or Anthony? Or Wong? Or even Yoshida? Let's say the lineup we currently have, with whatever pitching staff we wind up with, gets us between 88-92 wins. Replacing Abreu with Soto would increase that range to 92-96, and that's huge.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

3. Don’t sign Soto, Burnes, OR Fried but sign a pupu platter of Tier 2/3 guys like Teoscar, Eovaldi, Flaherty, Adames, Scott, etc. - I would be pretty disappointed.

They obviously could make trades to enhance any of these situations but a trade for a guy like Crochet will sting a little. They really need to come away with a blue chip FA and I view Soto, Burnes, and Fried as the only guys in that category (excluding Roki since he’ll be in CA).

Not going to lie, depending on the number and position of Tier 2 guys, I’d even be fine with this.

Case in point, sign Adames for 3b, sign Eovaldi, sign Hernandez, move Abreu and Mayer for “Crochet”, sign Kirby Yates, trade Yoshida for the most money you can get.

Go with:
CF - Duran
SS - Story (Rafaela in May)
DH - Devers
LF - Hernandez
1b - Casas
3b - Adames
RF - Anthony
C - Wong
2b - Campbell / Grissom

Crochet, Eovaldi, Houck, Bello, Gio / Crawford.

I‘d be more than good with that.

The longer it goes without the Sox actually doing something aggressive, the more concerned I get with an utterly unacceptable and insulting off season leading to

CF - Duran
SS - Story (Rafaela in May)
3b - Devers
LF - “O’Neill”
1b - Casas
C - Wong
RF - Abreu
DH - Yoshida
2b - Campbell / Grissom

Houck, Bello, Crawford, Giolito and Andrew Heaney.

It’s not even Thanksgiving, and I genuinely like Breslow (and Theo IS here in some capacity), so I refuse to believe they’ll be this dumb.

But when one looks at the 2022, 2023 and 2024 off seasons and how their lack of aggression wasn’t waiting for the Senga’s or Snell’s or even Bassit’s of the world but was just stop gap “meh”, one admittedly gets more apprehensive.

 

[RedOctober3829]

View: https://twitter.com/ben_yoel/status/1861532916615991509?s=46&t=IVL2VrlFgLlpc3mjGGto8Q

 

[BigSoxFan]

Not going to lie, depending on the number and position of Tier 2 guys, I’d even be fine with this.

Case in point, sign Adames for 3b, sign Eovaldi, sign Hernandez, move Abreu and Mayer for “Crochet”, sign Kirby Yates, trade Yoshida for the most money you can get.

Go with:
CF - Duran
SS - Story (Rafaela in May)
DH - Devers
LF - Hernandez
1b - Casas
3b - Adames
RF - Anthony
C - Wong
2b - Campbell / Grissom

Crochet, Eovaldi, Houck, Bello, Gio / Crawford.

I‘d be more than good with that.

The longer it goes without the Sox actually doing something aggressive, the more concerned I get with an utterly unacceptable and insulting off season leading to

CF - Duran
SS - Story (Rafaela in May)
3b - Devers
LF - “O’Neill”
1b - Casas
C - Wong
RF - Abreu
DH - Yoshida
2b - Campbell / Grissom

Houck, Bello, Crawford, Giolito and Andrew Heaney.

It’s not even Thanksgiving, and I genuinely like Breslow (and Theo IS here in some capacity), so I refuse to believe they’ll be this dumb.

But when one looks at the 2022, 2023 and 2024 off seasons and how their lack of aggression wasn’t waiting for the Senga’s or Snell’s or even Bassit’s of the world but was just stop gap “meh”, one admittedly gets more apprehensive.

Fair. I just can’t get there with paying $25-30M / year for a guy like Willy Adames’ 29-34 year-old seasons, even if it’s market value. Just hate the low OBP, high K guys and we already have one in Story.

I would love to see Burnes/Fried signed and then a trade for Crochet and they’d be able to send out Crawford in a deal like that. Rotation would quickly go from meh to “all right!”

 

[Fishy1]

After a certain point, of filling your lineup with (maybe cheap) 2-3 WAR guys, you kind of need to go big and pay a premium for those extra wins. If the best way to pay that premium is by upgrading Abreu to Soto is a fair question. But consider:

C: Wong/???/Teel - You can maybe upgrade here by replacing Wong with a good defensive catcher and hope that spills over into making the pitchers that much better, but this is not a position where we need to spend big. Really, what are the options?
1B: Casas - Cheap and controllable. No obvious upgrade on the free agent market. Maaaaybe if you can trade for Vlad Jr. and extend him, but how likely is that?
2B: Absolute black hole last season, but we have Campbell, and Grissom - one of whom will hopefully be an impact player. You could sign Adames to be a 2B, but he was a 3 WAR player as a SS. He's projected to get around $27M AAV. I don't think signing him to play 2B would be a good use of resources.
SS: Story - Solid defender, could have a decent year with the bat. Mayer waiting in the wings. Again, you could try to upgrade with Adames, but is it wise to bring a guy like Adames in for five or six years when we already have Story signed long term, plus Mayer, plus Campbell - who is also an option?
3B: Devers - You might make some modest gains by moving Devers to DH, and bringing in a guy like Bregman, Arenado or Adames to play 3B. But it's expensive, and not an otherworldly upgrade or anything. And this also presumes you're able to move Yoshida.
LF: Anthony (probably) - Top prospect in baseball, looks ready. And if you're going to move him in a trade (I wouldn't), your still looking at trying to replace him with Soto, or one of Hernandez/Santander... or O'Neill.
CF: Duran - still cheap, cost controlled, MVP level season last year. Good luck upgrading on him, even if he takes a step back.
RF: Abreu - Good defender, decent bat. Doesn't hit LHP. Really good trade value.
DH: Yoshida - Injured, pretty bad contract at this point. Probably can't easily be moved. You could probably upgrade this simply by having Devers and others rotate through while Rafaela/Campbell/Grissom/Refsnyder/Romy get starts around the diamond here and there. Or you could bring in a capable, but cheap RHB. Or Teoscar/Santander.

Basically, I think it boils down to... RF/LF (with Anthony playing one or the other), and DH are the most obvious places to upgrade our lineup. Possibly moving Devers to DH makes it a bit more complicated, but Soto and/or one of Teoscar/Santander are the most obvious fits for this offense. Maybe you end up paying him $48M a year for 4 more wins than Abreu would have given you, but those wins have to come from somewhere. How are you adding 4 wins over Story/Mayer? Or Casas? Or Anthony? Or Wong? Or even Yoshida? Let's say the lineup we currently have, with whatever pitching staff we wind up with, gets us between 88-92 wins. Replacing Abreu with Soto would increase that range to 92-96, and that's huge.

Upgrading catcher is tough but Wong was one of the very worst full-time catchers in baseball. He was that bad behind the plate. Bringing in somebody else who can actually field the position until Teel is ready-ready would be huge, IMO.

Otherwise, I don't think the position players are where we really need the upgrades. I'd love to see them move on from Yoshida for someone who's a better fit but I'm pretty comfortable entering next season with what we have. Besides Valdez, Grissom, and the first-base poopoo platter in lieu of Casas, we got pretty good performances all around the diamond.

The bullpen/pitching depth is what really sank our season. We got absolutely abysmal performances from our depth. That's why I'm as interested in adding Fried or Burnes or whoever as I am in Soto, as well as in pursuing some strong relief options.

 

[Hank Scorpio]

Upgrading catcher is tough but Wong was one of the very worst full-time catchers in baseball. He was that bad behind the plate. Bringing in somebody else who can actually field the position until Teel is ready-ready would be huge, IMO.

Otherwise, I don't think the position players are where we really need the upgrades. I'd love to see them move on from Yoshida for someone who's a better fit but I'm pretty comfortable entering next season with what we have. Besides Valdez, Grissom, and the first-base poopoo platter in lieu of Casas, we got pretty good performances all around the diamond.

The bullpen/pitching depth is what really sank our season. We got absolutely abysmal performances from our depth. That's why I'm as interested in adding Fried or Burnes or whoever as I am in Soto, as well as in pursuing some strong relief options.

I agree with you on pretty much all of this. I'd love to upgrade from Wong, and think we should do it. I just don't see how doing so is in anyway expensive. By the way - I think having Snell throwing to Wong would be an absolute disaster.

On the pitching end of things - we clearly need upgrades. But I don't thing Soto prevents us from getting one of Fried (yes please), or Burnes/Snell (I have big concerns) - nor does it prevent us from snagging the bullpen help we need.

 

[brownsox]

Upgrading catcher is tough but Wong was one of the very worst full-time catchers in baseball. He was that bad behind the plate. Bringing in somebody else who can actually field the position until Teel is ready-ready would be huge, IMO.

Do you mean defensively only? Overall B-Ref has him as exactly average last year (1.6 WAR, 0.0 WAA). FanGraphs has him slightly below that at 1.1 WAR. He was bad defensively, but a 110 RC+ is pretty good.

I think he’s unlikely to hit that well again this season, but I think he’ll provide enough offense to suffice as the bridge to Teel and play against lefties some even after Teel arrives. As you note, upgrading at catcher is hard.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Wong was one of the worst catchers in baseball based on what, though? Some metrics of questionable validity? The Red Sox didn’t seem to think much at all of McGuire, who grades out pretty well defensively right? Vazquez was seen as an elite framer at one point, but so what? I am not convinced we have a great handle on how to measure catchers defense. Not saying Wong is good of course.

 

[Fishy1]

I agree with you on pretty much all of this. I'd love to upgrade from Wong, and think we should do it. I just don't see how doing so is in anyway expensive. By the way - I think having Snell throwing to Wong would be an absolute disaster.

On the pitching end of things - we clearly need upgrades. But I don't thing Soto prevents us from getting one of Fried (yes please), or Burnes/Snell (I have big concerns) - nor does it prevent us from snagging the bullpen help we need.

In theory, no. In practice, well, I'm concerned. I doubt the FO goes and gets Soto AND Fried. But we'll see.

Do you mean defensively only? Overall B-Ref has him as exactly average last year (1.6 WAR, 0.0 WAA). FanGraphs has him slightly below that at 1.1 WAR. He was bad defensively, but a 110 RC+ is pretty good.

I think he’s unlikely to hit that well again this season, but I think he’ll provide enough offense to suffice as the bridge to Teel and play against lefties some even after Teel arrives. As you note, upgrading at catcher is hard.

This is catchers sorted by fWAR from last year with more than 350 PA. Wong is 19/25. If he posts a normal BABIP, around 300, the bottom will fall out of his offense.

I prefer fangraphs because it uses statcast (which takes context into account of its calculations) while bWAR uses DRS, which is more outdated, IIRC. And Fangraphs tries to account for catcher framing while bWAR does not.

 

[Fishy1]

Wong was one of the worst catchers in baseball based on what, though? Some metrics of questionable validity? The Red Sox didn’t seem to think much at all of McGuire, who grades out pretty well defensively right? Vazquez was seen as an elite framer at one point, but so what? I am not convinced we have a great handle on how to measure catchers defense. Not saying Wong is good of course.

The eye test matched the defensive numbers, IMO. He was awful at blocking and awful at framing.

I get you're a skeptic, but does it strike you as odd that all these advanced stats basically agree, AND agree with what our eyes are telling us?

 

[soxhop411]

For the Yankees, it is not just a regional rival but a

blood rival that looms as a serious threat in the Juan Soto derby.

The Red Sox are increasingly seen as a legitimate contender in the sweepstakes for the generational slugger as word is they are stepping up efforts to lure the superstar hitter away from their historic AL East nemesis.

Sources say the Red Sox are attempting to sell Soto on his fit in Boston — a fit both at Fenway Park and within the history of the franchise.

During the Red Sox’s sit-down with Soto and agent Scott Boras two weeks ago in California, which was attended by Red Sox co-owner Tom Werner, the team also stressed its rich history with star players from the Dominican Republic.

https://nypost.com/2024/11/26/sports/red-sox-pushing-hard-for-juan-soto-in-rising-yankees-threat/

 

[RedOctober3829]

For the Yankees, it is not just a regional rival but a blood rival that looms as a serious threat in the Juan Soto derby.
The Red Sox are increasingly seen as a legitimate contender in the sweepstakes for the generational slugger as word is they are stepping up efforts to lure the superstar hitter away from their historic AL East nemesis.
Sources say the Red Sox are attempting to sell Soto on his fit in Boston — a fit both at Fenway Park and within the history of the franchise.

The bidding for Soto has begun, and sources confirm that at least five teams — the Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, Blue Jays and Dodgers — are in.
The two New York teams are publicly viewed as favorites, but all five are believed to be in the running. The Red Sox had been seen as a long shot, but maybe they don’t view themselves that way.

https://nypost.com/2024/11/26/sports/red-sox-pushing-hard-for-juan-soto-in-rising-yankees-threat/

 

[YTF]

Not going to lie, depending on the number and position of Tier 2 guys, I’d even be fine with this.

Case in point, sign Adames for 3b, sign Eovaldi, sign Hernandez, move Abreu and Mayer for “Crochet”, sign Kirby Yates, trade Yoshida for the most money you can get.

Go with:
CF - Duran
SS - Story (Rafaela in May)
DH - Devers
LF - Hernandez
1b - Casas
3b - Adames
RF - Anthony
C - Wong
2b - Campbell / Grissom

Crochet, Eovaldi, Houck, Bello, Gio / Crawford.

I‘d be more than good with that.

The longer it goes without the Sox actually doing something aggressive, the more concerned I get with an utterly unacceptable and insulting off season leading to

CF - Duran
SS - Story (Rafaela in May)
3b - Devers
LF - “O’Neill”
1b - Casas
C - Wong
RF - Abreu
DH - Yoshida
2b - Campbell / Grissom

Houck, Bello, Crawford, Giolito and Andrew Heaney.

It’s not even Thanksgiving, and I genuinely like Breslow (and Theo IS here in some capacity), so I refuse to believe they’ll be this dumb.

But when one looks at the 2022, 2023 and 2024 off seasons and how their lack of aggression wasn’t waiting for the Senga’s or Snell’s or even Bassit’s of the world but was just stop gap “meh”, one admittedly gets more apprehensive.

I really appreciate the time and effort you put in here, but I've got to be honest as someone who puts in the time and effort to read your contributions it's become a bit old that every projected lineup you suggest comes with the caveat that Story's injured within 60 days.

 

[brownsox]

This is catchers sorted by fWAR from last year with more than 350 PA. Wong is 19/25. If he posts a normal BABIP, around 300, the bottom will fall out of his offense.

OK, but the last sentence is really saying that you expect him to be one of the worst catchers in baseball next year, rather than that he was one last year. Which is fair but not quite the same thing.

I would also not agree that that list shows Wong to be “one of the very worst full time catchers in all of baseball.” It shows what you’d expect for a guy with 1.1 fWAR - below average but quite a bit better than the “very worst.” He’s exactly as close to No. 11 Willson Contreras (2.6 fWAR) as he is to No. 24 Korey Lee (-0.4 fWAR).

I continue to think that a higher-end backup is a good idea - Higashioka, Kelly, Grandal etc - but that I wouldn’t put a ton of resources into “upgrading” with Teel a year away.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

The eye test matched the defensive numbers, IMO. He was awful at blocking and awful at framing.

I get you're a skeptic, but does it strike you as odd that all these advanced stats basically agree, AND agree with what our eyes are telling us?

Well, do the Sox agree? I feel like I never heard anything about Wong’s defense (maybe a few quips here and there about his generational pop time) until all of a sudden a few posters were all over him. The things we can truly measure and attribute to to a catcher seem relatively inconsequential to the overall picture.

Dodgers were pretty good this year, right? Will Smith was absolutely awful at pitch framing and blocking too. Of course, he was great at blocking the year before.

We are measuring these things but what do they actually mean, how much is truly reflective of the catcher (and how much the pitcher), etc etc.

 

[simplicio]

Wong was one of the worst catchers in baseball based on what, though?

Blocks above average: -13 (64/66)
Catcher framing runs: -7 (53/58)

His co-conspirators down there notably include Will Smith and Shea Langeliers, aka the primary catchers on the only two clubs to rate as more adversely effected by missed ump calls. According to that estimate, umps gave us a 49 run deficit compared to the Yankees this year.

 

[SouthernBoSox]

https://nypost.com/2024/11/26/sports/red-sox-pushing-hard-for-juan-soto-in-rising-yankees-threat/

Guys, it’s Heyman and I’m sure this is just a Boras leverage play. Don’t believe it.

(I believe it)

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

Fair. I just can’t get there with paying $25-30M / year for a guy like Willy Adames’ 29-34 year-old seasons, even if it’s market value. Just hate the low OBP, high K guys and we already have one in Story.

I would love to see Burnes/Fried signed and then a trade for Crochet and they’d be able to send out Crawford in a deal like that. Rotation would quickly go from meh to “all right!”

That‘s fair (Adames) and I’m not even saying he‘d be my plan A pipedream (Soto) or even plan B (Bregman). I could even totally see the argument of HS Kim as he’d be cheaper, more likely to benefit from a park change and has a more unique batting line (at least in terms of good bb and k%).

I can also get behind the argument of signing someone like Santander, Hernandez or CWalker and dealing with Devers and Casas defensive shortcomings.

My point was more, signing several “tier two” free agents, or whatever one wants to label them as, along with swinging a decent size trade could still be a very successful off season. For me its the looming possibility of doing essentially nothing and expecting different results that I would see no justification for.

Act like a team that actually wants to win the World Series and not simply compete for the 3rd wild card - lots of ways to do that. Running it back adding this year’s version of O’Neill and Giolito (as in someone that can only command a one year deal) is not that.

I really appreciate the time and effort you put in here, but I've got to be honest as someone who puts in the time and effort to read your contributions it's become a bit old that every projected lineup you suggest comes with the caveat that Story's injured within 60 days.

Fair critique, and I’ll try to dial it back. It is however a major reason that I’m so adamant other parts of the infield (third base defense) need to be addressed, and that a 2-5 of the order bat needs to be added, and why I think Rafaela is such an integral piece of the organization.

But you’re right in that I’ve said it enough, and will try not to.



Not for nothing @SouthernBoSox, but I totally believe they are massively in on Soto. That isn‘t a concern. What I am very concerned about is what the pivot looks like if / when Soto lands elsewhere.