Pretty encouraging stuff.
Or maybe he's seeing the writing on the walls and wants to try and stay. Boras needs an opt out to get paid (current contract benefits prior agent) so that's set in stone, and keeping Boston engaged keeps his player happy and the bidding active. No down side.
Outfielders have started playing way back the last couple of years. Teams would rather give up singles than doubles and position the defense accordingly. Xander has hit a ton of soft liners over the heads of the infielders that have dropped in. I don't know if it's intentional on his part, but if someone did try to do that, they could certainly maintain a .400+ BABIP against current baseball defenses.
Probably.
I wouldnt assume that. Seems more likely that hes admitting to himself that if they give him the money he wants in July rather than in March, he will take it. Doubt the price is any lower than it was in March.
Agreed. Wouldn't shock me if he's slightly backing off on the "I won't negotiate during the season" stance because he thinks that might be more tolerable/less distracting than trade rumors hanging over his head for the next 2.5 months.
Fangraphs has his FB% at 22.4, but that 16.3% stat is wild. Seems like the two sites have different criteria.
Yeah, BBref includes all fly balls put in play including HR's. Fangraphs doesn't include HRs.
Hmm, could you source me on that? Seeing here that Fangraphs batted ball statistics do account for home runs.
Same source, that's what I get for skimming. I have no clue what the difference could be. The sample size is so small it's probably like 1 little thing that's the difference, though.
Gotcha. Yeah, surely some SSS at play but that’s a fairly sizable gap between the sites and I didn’t know there was one. Seems like Bref gets their data from Retrosheet.org and Fangraphs from Baseball Info Solutions, but I don’t think I care enough to know the granular detail.
Do you actually watch the games? This is a serious question, because the Xander we see watching all of the games has been absolutely brilliant. Whatever the cause of the offensive crash in MLB this year (cold weather, dead balls, defensive shifts, etc), he has risen above his peers in adapting to the situation, pitcher and conditions with his hitting. The (many) hitters across MLB and the Sox lineup who aren't hitting are the ones with grooved swings, perfect launch angles and predictable BIP outcomes. Watching the games, I have become a HUGE Bogaerts fan and believe that the Sox absolutely HAVE to extend him (and his right-side protege) for the rest of their playing careers.
Feel like this has been said over and over, but Bogaerts isn't likely to agree to a position change (even a future one) before he signs a new deal. He's aiming to be paid like Lindor and Seager, not Story and Semien. To do that, he's got to be viewed as a SS. Once he's signed and locked into the last significant contract of his career, he might be more flexible about changing positions. Regardless, I can't see him changing within the next couple years. Come 2024 or 2025 when/if Mayer is knocking on the door, that's a whole different world than where we are now.
I’m watching about one or two games a week these days. Regardless, I’m also a huge Bogaerts fan and want them to extend him. I’d be happy with an extension at like 7/$175, which is probably higher than most here would be comfortable with.
On the basis of observation so far this year, Story has better range and glove work than Bogaerts, but a substantially less accurate arm. Whether that's due to his prior elbow injury is hard to say for anybody who didn't see Story fielding in Colorado, but it seems to me like a recipe for keeping Bogaerts at SS, where his arm plays as well as ever, and affirming Story's move to 2B, where his glove plays just as well, and his arm should adapt better than at SS.
What gets lost in most comparative analysis is how much better an offensive player Bogaerts is compared to other contemporary shortstops. The only really comparable offensive talent is Wander Franco and, sometimes, Tim Anderson. For all the hype, Correa, Seager, Story, Turner, Lindor and Bichette are really only slightly above average hitters in comparison.
True enough, his K rate is up and walk rate is down, but to some extent I think there has been extra pressure on Bogaerts/Devers/Martinez to produce given the absolute suckitude of everyone else on the team. You mention the negatives like K/BB/FB/HR/ISO numbers, but his hard-hit and line drive rates are high, he's pushing balls to RF a lot. His BABIP is off-the-charts. There are lots of batting anomalies in MLB this year so far, and his metrics are wild, but largely explainable.
Bogaerts gets a big boost from playing at Fenway, career home OPS of .872 and road OPS of .757. Correa was the only other one of these guys I looked up, .842 at home and .824 on the road.
Correa has had a difficult career to properly assess because he's only really played two full seasons for one reason or another. Interestingly, many of his rate stats are similar to Bogie's: he's striking out more, walking less; his HRs and fly balls are way down, but he's hitting the ball as hard and getting just as many line drives as before. The primary difference between he and Zander has been his apparent (inability or unwillingness) to push the ball to the opposite field. In the strange environment that has so far been 2022, he's clearly inferior right now.
Oh, yeah, I thought you were talking careers and not just comparing the 100 ABs or so from 2022 so far.
Or maybe he simply said what he said because a reporter asked him the question. Xander's a decent person - he doesn't want to be rude or a prima donna. I doubt he's parsing out strategies about what to say about in-season negotiation vs. trade rumors - too much out of his control to make that consideration. A reporter asked a question, he gave a polite answer.
FWIW, X always has a high BABIP. Career .335, with a .372 one season. Only ever sub-.300 was he rookie year at .296. So his current .420 mark should come down, but it doesn’t have to come down all that much to be in the scope of his career numbers
He's 42/99 with BIP. Change it to his career mark of .335 and his 2022 line falls to .271/.338/.399. Not great, but league average is .235/.307/.377.
