BOS bullpen 2018

[Cesar Crespo]

Anybody who assumed Sea as a playoff team with their unsustainable record given their run differential wasn't paying attention. They were overdue for some hard regression.

Yeah, but once the ASB hits, a team's current record is more predictive of what is going to happen the rest of the season than pythag record. Granted, going into the ASB, Oakland was only 3 games back. It's just funny because everyone was mentioning Lowrie as a potential trade target as if Oakland was a seller.

I'd like to see Oakland's run differential on a chart if anyone feels inclined. I'd think that number has grown a lot in the last month or two.

 

[RustyKuntzwasnotastripper]

Considering the quality LH starting pitching the Sox have, Wouldn't be possible for one of them to act as "loogy of the night"? After all, it has become fairly common to have starters pitch some between starts in the playoffs.

 

[RIrooter09]

Considering the quality LH starting pitching the Sox have, Wouldn't be possible for one of them to act as "loogy of the night"? After all, it has become fairly common to have starters pitch some between starts in the playoffs.

I think this will be Johnson's role.

 

[nvalvo]

 

[dbecks]

Might as well move Pomeranz now. Easier to "pitch out of it" if it's only an inning at a time.

 

[dbecks]

What happens - hypothetically - if Cora just brings Kimbrel out in the 8th one game, and lets Barnes close one out? What’s the worst that can happen?

Kimbrel’s last 6 appearances:

6.1 IP, 6 ER, 7 H, 5 BB, 2 HR, 8 K

 

[teddywingman]

I kinda like Barnes where he's at right now. No need to mess with it.

 

[Adrian's Dome]

What happens - hypothetically - if Cora just brings Kimbrel out in the 8th one game, and lets Barnes close one out? What’s the worst that can happen?

Kimbrel’s last 6 appearances:

6.1 IP, 6 ER, 7 H, 5 BB, 2 HR, 8 K

Hypothetically?

Barnes gets a save instead of Kimbrel...and largely, nothing else changes at all.

If you have a real suggestion to fix what's been ailing Kimbrel the past couple weeks, by all means. I'll bet a very large sum of money that the specific inning he pitches in ain't it.

 

[Plympton91]

I repeat, Tyler Thornberg should not be pitching meaningful innings.

 

[mauf]

I repeat, Tyler Thornberg should not be pitching meaningful innings.

Cora has generally done a good job with bullpen usage, but I was surprised to see that Thornberg has higher gmLI (leverage index at the time he enters the game) than Brazier. Even for the mop-up work Brazier was appropriately assigned when he first joined the club, that seems out of whack.

 

[joe dokes]

I repeat, Tyler Thornberg should not be pitching meaningful innings.

Once the dust settles from 19-12 and the DH, I'd guess that brasier has moved ahead of thornburg. They need 4 innings today from a depleted group.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

I repeat, Tyler Thornberg should not be pitching meaningful innings.

And he hasn't been, unless you consider today's game meaningful. It's like a simulation of meaningful innings.

 

[Plympton91]

And he hasn't been, unless you consider today's game meaningful. It's like a simulation of meaningful innings.

Yes, today’s 7th inning was a meaningful inning. Or were you not following the Red Sox in 2011 and unaware of what happened in 1978?

 

[Adrian's Dome]

Yes, today’s 7th inning was a meaningful inning. Or were you not following the Red Sox in 2011 and unaware of what happened in 1978?

Okay there hyperbole, reel it in.

Wins matter. We all know this. But today's game was literally anything but a must-win. Chris Sale's health is paramount, and we need more of a sample size of Tyler Thornburg, especially in higher-lev situations.

That Thornburg was shaky doesn't change anything.

 

[joe dokes]

Yes, today’s 7th inning was a meaningful inning. Or were you not following the Red Sox in 2011 and unaware of what happened in 1978?

Were you following the red sox the last few days?

And beyond that, there's one season since 1978 where they spit the regular season bit. Many many more where they didn't.

 

[ponch73]

I repeat, Tyler Thornberg should not be pitching meaningful innings.

2 of his last 4 appearances have been less than ideal, but let's not get overly carried away by recency bias.

Since Levangie and company made an adjustment to his mechanics in Detroit, Thornburg has put up the following line:

9 appearances
9 IP
2 ER (and 0/1 inherited runners scoring)
143 pitches
7 hits
1 HR
4 BB's
9 K'S
1.22 WHIP
10% swinging strikes before today's game
3% line drive rate (LD's divided by total pitches) before today's game

I think we still need to see a larger sample of Thornburg's body of work before making any sweeping decisions. Yes, we'd like to see the walk rate come down, but It's hard to argue that he shouldn't get the call ahead of guys like JoKe and Hembree, which would naturally lead to him pitching meaningful innings.

 

[bosockboy]

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

I wonder when we will see Kimbrel again.

Last pitched on the 18th, 14th before that.

 

[joe dokes]

I think today was a Thornburg experiment. 3rd game in 4 days, let's see how his stuff plays under a playoff-like load.

And as much as rust concerns me, I think I like the idea of kimbrel's mini vacation. (Assuming it's not arm barking).

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

And as much as rust concerns me, I think I like the idea of kimbrel's mini vacation. (Assuming it's not arm barking).

I have to think it's just a matter of good timing that he's had some down time. Since his last appearance, the team has lost three times and won by 6 and 7. Before that, it was a team day off and a 4-run win between appearances. I don't think his mini vacation is planned, it's just lack of a tight spot/save opportunity to use him. Until they avoid using him in a save situation, I'm not sure there's anything to be concerned about.

 

[JimD]

Still feels like wishful thinking that anyone useful will get through to the Sox.

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

Anyone know if Herrera cleared? You could always move Evoldi to the pen and grab (gulp) Gio Gonzalez. He cleared completely I believe. Although he’s been garbage since the ASB.

 

[bosockboy]

Curious if Doolittle cleared; can players be put through waivers while rehabbing? I’d let him finish rehab on our watch; he’s a legit difference maker.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

MLBTR keeps a list of prominent players that have cleared waivers. They list three Nationals players, Doolittle not among them. Could mean one of two things...they haven't attempted waivers with him or they did, he was claimed, and they pulled him back.

 

[Al Zarilla]

Curious if Doolittle cleared; can players be put through waivers while rehabbing? I’d let him finish rehab on our watch; he’s a legit difference maker.

I’d love to have him help the Sox eliminate the A’s after they eliminate the MFY. Do-a-lot, Glasses-itude. I don’t know, I’m sure Eck would come up with much better words around Sean D.

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

It's interesting that we've heard nothing about Wright. There was a report that he was not able to throw from the mound a few weeks ago, but I literally watched him pitch a bullpen right after that and he actually looked pretty good. They've kept him on the 10 day. That he hasn't pitched any rehab is not a good sign and probably makes it fairly certain he's not going to be on the team on 9/1, but he was very effective out of the bullpen this year. If there's any chance he might be back, that would be good.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

It's interesting that we've heard nothing about Wright. There was a report that he was not able to throw from the mound a few weeks ago, but I literally watched him pitch a bullpen right after that and he actually looked pretty good. They've kept him on the 10 day. That he hasn't pitched any rehab is not a good sign and probably makes it fairly certain he's not going to be on the team on 9/1, but he was very effective out of the bullpen this year. If there's any chance he might be back, that would be good.

Wright is throwing live BP against minor league hitters today in St Pete. The Sox are bussing players in from Ft. Myers just for the occasion, so as to not potentially mess up any of their regular players by having them face a knuckleball. It would seem that if that goes well, he'll probably do it again in 3-4 days or head right out for a rehab appearance or two before re-joining the team in September.

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

Wright is throwing live BP against minor league hitters today in St Pete. The Sox are bussing players in from Ft. Myers just for the occasion, so as to not potentially mess up any of their regular players by having them face a knuckleball. It would seem that if that goes well, he'll probably do it again in 3-4 days or head right out for a rehab appearance or two before re-joining the team in September.

That's fantastic news. Thanks for the update.

Assuming EdRo pitches his second rehab start tomorrow, he would be lined up for the 8/30 game against the White Sox which is currently Velazquez's start. EdRo has plenty of time left on his rehab assignment though.

Does anyone happen to know whether the 10-day rule for optioned players to stay down applies for September call ups? For example, if the Sox send Workman down on 8/30 to make room for EdRo can he come back up 9/1 or does he have to wait for 9/9?

Anyway, because there's not another great place to put it, here's what the rest of August looks like. I assume they are going to keep Rafi and Sale on the DL until the September call ups so they don't have send anyone down, but maybe not. Sale could theoretically take the 8/28 start.

8/24 Tampa Velazquez
8/25 Tampa Porcello; Sale eligible to return
8/26 Tampa Eovaldi; Rafi eligible to return
8/27 Off
8/28 Miami Johnson
8/29 Miami Price
8/30 CWS Velazquez (EdRo would be on 5 days rest)
8/31 CWS Porcello

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I believe the 10-day rule applies as long as there are games to be played in the minors. So if someone were sent down on the 30th, I believe they could be re-added to the big league roster the day after the minor league regular season ends on 9/3.

 

[normstalls]

Rodriguez next rehab start is Monday per the article below

Christian Vazquez will catch Eduardo Rodriguez in a rehab game at Double-A Portland on Monday, manager Alex Cora said.

https://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2018/08/boston_red_sox_injuries_christ.html

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Rodriguez next rehab start is Monday per the article below



https://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2018/08/boston_red_sox_injuries_christ.html

Which lines him up to start on September 1 when they can call him up without sending anyone down. Sounds about right.

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

I believe the 10-day rule applies as long as there are games to be played in the minors. So if someone were sent down on the 30th, I believe they could be re-added to the big league roster the day after the minor league regular season ends on 9/3.

Makes sense. Thanks.

Which lines him up to start on September 1 when they can call him up without sending anyone down. Sounds about right.

This especially makes sense given that Sandy now catches Price, Sale and Porcello so you'll want Vaz catching Edro after 9/1.

Or maybe they start him on 9/2 for Johnson. Alternatively they could pitch him on 9/1 and move Eovaldi back one day depending on whether they want to go Porcello Eovaldi Edro or R L R.

What would be ideal is if Sale is ready. He could pitch 8/30 and then you'd be lined Sale Porcello EdRo Eovaldi Price, so L R L R L. But then you need to send someone else down with Workman. Johnson and Velazquez are both on decent rest to back up EdRo and Sale if you want to limit their pitch counts. Probably one more missed start for Sale though.

 

[BaseballJones]

Bullpen right now....

Velazquez: 2.74 era, 1.39 whip, 5.2 k/9 (a bit of smoke and mirrors here)
Thornburg: 4.15 era, 1.33 whip, 7.8 k/9
Workman: 2.54 era, 1.06 whip, 8.6 k/9
Hembree: 3.88 era, 1.35 whip, 11.6 k/9
Kelly: 4.08 era, 1.26 whip, 9.0 k/9
Barnes: 2.62 era, 1.13 whip, 14.1 k/9
Brasier: 0.95 era, 0.74 whip, 8.5 k/9
Kimbrel: 2.47 era, 1.02 whip, 13.6 k/9

The postseason rotation should be Sale, Price, Porcello, and maybe ERod. That leaves Brian Johnson and Eovaldi available for the bullpen as well. Or maybe Eovaldi gets a starting spot and ERod goes to the pen for the playoffs to give them a dynamic lefty option. That might make more sense actually.

I know this bullpen gives us ulcers, but on the whole, it's pretty damned good.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Bullpen right now....

Velazquez: 2.74 era, 1.39 whip, 5.2 k/9 (a bit of smoke and mirrors here)
Thornburg: 4.15 era, 1.33 whip, 7.8 k/9
Workman: 2.54 era, 1.06 whip, 8.6 k/9
Hembree: 3.88 era, 1.35 whip, 11.6 k/9
Kelly: 4.08 era, 1.26 whip, 9.0 k/9
Barnes: 2.62 era, 1.13 whip, 14.1 k/9
Brasier: 0.95 era, 0.74 whip, 8.5 k/9
Kimbrel: 2.47 era, 1.02 whip, 13.6 k/9

The postseason rotation should be Sale, Price, Porcello, and maybe ERod. That leaves Brian Johnson and Eovaldi available for the bullpen as well. Or maybe Eovaldi gets a starting spot and ERod goes to the pen for the playoffs to give them a dynamic lefty option. That might make more sense actually.

I know this bullpen gives us ulcers, but on the whole, it's pretty damned good.

Hopefully Brasier keeps it up because after Kimbrell and Barnes, there's a pretty huge drop off. It's possible Thornburg gets it going too, and the club is giving him every chance to do so. Velazquez is a bit of smoke and mirrors but he also has a decent BB rate and is a GB machine. He's the guy you'd go to if you need a DP.

This team could really use a reliable arm out of the pen without major walk issues. Preferably one that isn't a huge drop off from Kimbrell/Barnes. Brasier and Thornburg fit the bill. Brasier has been great and Thornburg's been inconsistent. Hopefully Brasier keeps it up and/or Thornburg gets going. I'm not a big believer in Workman but it's possible he could be that guy too. He's been pretty good since 2017. 62g, 68ip, 19bb/64k, 2.91 era, 1.15 WHIP. The 11 HRs is troublesome tho.

 

[tonyarmasjr]

Bullpen right now....

Velazquez: 2.74 era, 1.39 whip, 5.2 k/9 (a bit of smoke and mirrors here)
Thornburg: 4.15 era, 1.33 whip, 7.8 k/9
Workman: 2.54 era, 1.06 whip, 8.6 k/9
Hembree: 3.88 era, 1.35 whip, 11.6 k/9
Kelly: 4.08 era, 1.26 whip, 9.0 k/9
Barnes: 2.62 era, 1.13 whip, 14.1 k/9
Brasier: 0.95 era, 0.74 whip, 8.5 k/9
Kimbrel: 2.47 era, 1.02 whip, 13.6 k/9

The postseason rotation should be Sale, Price, Porcello, and maybe ERod. That leaves Brian Johnson and Eovaldi available for the bullpen as well. Or maybe Eovaldi gets a starting spot and ERod goes to the pen for the playoffs to give them a dynamic lefty option. That might make more sense actually.

I know this bullpen gives us ulcers, but on the whole, it's pretty damned good.

I think the issue is that the guys we expected to be the back-end/high leverage arms (Kimbrel, Kelly, Barnes) have faltered. Pretty quietly, though (at least for me), Kelly has a line of 12 G, 11.2 IP, 9.3 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 1.54 ERA, 2.12 FIP, 3.40 xFIP over the last month. If he gets back near the level he was at to start the season and Kimbrel's mini-break rights his ship, I think they're in really good shape.

 

[Plympton91]

Anyone know if Herrera cleared? You could always move Evoldi to the pen and grab (gulp) Gio Gonzalez. He cleared completely I believe. Although he’s been garbage since the ASB.

Herrera is on the DL with rotator cuff injury and has been in decline for 2 seasons. He was putrid for the Nats, particularly in non closing situations.

 

[geoduck no quahog]

I wish someone could explain to me why Kelly is just so hittable.

Tipping, not hiding the ball, straightness, spin...I wouldn't know, but he's a walking hit machine.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

I wish someone could explain to me why Kelly is just so hittable.

Tipping, not hiding the ball, straightness, spin...I wouldn't know, but he's a walking hit machine.

Well... as TonyArmas pointed out a few posts up, " Kelly has a line of 12 G, 11.2 IP, 9.3 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 1.54 ERA, 2.12 FIP, 3.40 xFIP over the last month", he really hasn't been. He was great to start the season... .had a putrid middle of the season and now is looking like he's rebound his Start of The Season Form. He's really not a hit machine. He sure as hell seems like it at times (and IS in fact a uh... "walking hit machine") but for the most part he's a good but not great bullpen option. As a 3rd (or actually 4th man out of the bullpen at this point, he's fine)... in the playoffs, I can definitely Eovaldi and hopefully Wright both pushing him down the ladder even more. I'm not worried about him.

 

[bosockboy]

Assuming a 5 man playoff bench, this seems like a good playoff bullpen guesstimate:

Kimbrel
Barnes
Brasier
Kelly
Hembree
ERod or Eovaldi (other starts)

One of:
Pomeranz
Workman
Wright
Thornburg
Velasquez

 

[Clears Cleaver]

Assuming a 5 man playoff bench, this seems like a good playoff bullpen guesstimate:

Kimbrel
Barnes
Brasier
Kelly
Hembree
ERod or Eovaldi (other starts)

One of:
Pomeranz
Workman
Wright
Thornburg
Velasquez

I’d drop Kelly down and say two of that group.

 

[RorschachsMask]

I think Workman has a shot at making the roster, i'd prefer seeing him in a playoff game over Kelly.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

I'm not sure that Hembree is a lock just yet.

 

[EdRalphRomero]

Assuming a 5 man playoff bench, this seems like a good playoff bullpen guesstimate:

Kimbrel
Barnes
Brasier
Kelly
Hembree
ERod or Eovaldi (other starts)

One of:
Pomeranz
Workman
Wright
Thornburg
Velasquez

Johnson?

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

For a team that has operated with a three man bench as much as a four man bench this season, why are we assuming a five man bench for the post-season?

 

[keninten]

For a team that has operated with a three man bench as much as a four man bench this season, why are we assuming a five man bench for the post-season?

Wouldn`t there be greater chances for pinch runners, defensive replacements, and pinch hitters. Wereas your best RPs aren`t going to be held back as much. The 11th and 12th guys in the pen won`t be used except in a blowout.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Wouldn`t there be greater chances for pinch runners, defensive replacements, and pinch hitters. Wereas your best RPs aren`t going to be held back as much. The 11th and 12th guys in the pen won`t be used except in a blowout.

Pinch runners for whom? Pinch hitters for whom? Other than the spots where there's an existing platoon, like 1B with Moreland and Pearce, how often are we likely to see a lot of switching things up mid-game?

It comes down to Vazquez's health, I suppose. If he's the #2 catcher, then I can see a five man bench (Holt, Nunez, Pearce, Swihart, Vazquez). Otherwise, I'd rather have the extra pitcher.

Really though, the 25th man isn't likely to get much action whether he's a pitcher or hitter. I mean for all the attention Roberts rightly got in 2004, he only got into three games out of 11. Youkilis was also active that post-season and only got into one game. I doubt Swihart or Holt or Nunez will get much action if everyone else is healthy, specifically Devers and Kinsler. They can probably get by without one of them.

 

[bosockboy]

For a team that has operated with a three man bench as much as a four man bench this season, why are we assuming a five man bench for the post-season?

Lots of travel days let relievers get rest. I’ll have to dig
but don’t remember one of our playoff rosters with more than 11 pitchers. Particularly in a 5 game.

Pinch runners for whom? Pinch hitters for whom? Other than the spots where there's an existing platoon, like 1B with Moreland and Pearce, how often are we likely to see a lot of switching things up mid-game?

It comes down to Vazquez's health, I suppose. If he's the #2 catcher, then I can see a five man bench (Holt, Nunez, Pearce, Swihart, Vazquez). Otherwise, I'd rather have the extra pitcher.

Really though, the 25th man isn't likely to get much action whether he's a pitcher or hitter. I mean for all the attention Roberts rightly got in 2004, he only got into three games out of 11. Youkilis was also active that post-season and only got into one game. I doubt Swihart or Holt or Nunez will get much action if everyone else is healthy, specifically Devers and Kinsler. They can probably get by without one of them.

Pinch run for Moreland, Leon for sure late in a game. JBJ really struggles with LOOGY’s, obvious PH spot, catchers also.

 

[DeadlySplitter]

I admit I'm getting more concerned by the day with this group. Neither Workman nor Thornburg were able to have clean innings tonight. Pom obviously would be scary in any playoff scenario. Brasier's short sample size could regress. Velazquez got huge regression last night, although 5 of the "earned" runs were on a scoring error.

On a side note, Kimbrel hasn't even pitched in a week now. Gotta find a way to make sure he's sharp at the end of the regular season.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

I admit I'm getting more concerned by the day with this group. Neither Workman nor Thornburg were able to have clean innings tonight. Pom obviously would be scary in any playoff scenario. Brasier's short sample size could regress. Velazquez got huge regression last night, although 5 of the "earned" runs were on a scoring error.

On a side note, Kimbrel hasn't even pitched in a week now. Gotta find a way to make sure he's sharp at the end of the regular season.

It would seem that the best way to make sure Kimbrel is sharp at the end of the regular season is to let him ease into September, like this, and then ramp up heading into the playoffs.

By the way, you been following the dominant Yankee bullpen? Everyone has question marks. The Sox have a lot of options, more after Sept 1, and more than a month to figure it out.

 

[SemperFidelisSox]

The issue right now is the long ball. 11 HR allowed in the month of August. Thornburg has 3 in 18.1 IP.