Prior to the start of the season, the Red Sox and third baseman
Rafael Devers engaged in some extension talks that didn’t yield much progress, as the two sides were
reportedly around $100MM apart in their floated prices. Some more details on the negotiations were shared by
The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier, who reports that the Sox viewed
Matt Olson’s extension with the Braves as a possible model for a Devers deal.
Olson signed his
eight-year, $168MM extension (with a $20MM club option for 2030) just a day after Atlanta landed the first baseman in a blockbuster trade with the Athletics. Both Devers and Olson are in the same service-time class, and were under control through the 2023 via a final year of arbitration eligibility. Back in April,
MLBTR’s Anthony Franco looked at Devers through the lens of the Olson extension, but also made the point that “obviously, Olson and Devers don’t make for an apples-to-apples comparison.”
From Boston’s perspective, eight years and $168MM had been established as the market rate for a star first baseman, and Speier writes that the Sox were looking for an extension in that range “citing the likelihood that Devers would spend much of the contract either at first base or designated hitter.”
There have long been questions about Devers’ long-term viability as a third baseman, as (depending on the defensive metric of choice) his glovework has generally been subpar for his entire career. This year, Devers has a -6.6 UZR/150, -2 Defensive Runs Saved, and an even 0 in Outs Above Average, indicating some small improvement from his previous numbers. For what it’s worth, OAA is the metric that has been most favorable to Devers, as his glovework in 2019 received a whopping +17 OAA (with a more modest +2.4 UZR/150 and -5 DRS).
Olson happens to be one of the league’s better defensive first basemen, which undoubtedly also figured into the argument the Red Sox put forth to Devers’ agents at Rep 1 Baseball. However, it is also pretty easy to understand the counter-arguments that Devers’ camp could make. Devers is over two and a half years younger than Olson, third base is the more difficult position, and Devers has more upside at the plate.
From 2017-2021, Devers hit .279/.338/.509 with 112 home runs over 2344 plate appearances. Over that same stretch, Olson hit .254/.348/.515 with 142 homers in 2341 PA, with Olson also playing his home games in the pitcher-friendly Coliseum while Devers hit at Fenway Park. Of course, Devers also began his MLB career at age 20, and he has already been a significant contributor to a World Series champion.
