Good post. I'd also add another name to the discussion: John Brodie. 1970 MVP and took the 49ers to two NFC title games once they finally put some decent players around him. Led the league in passing yards per game three times, completions three times and TDs twice and was 3rd all-time in passing yards when he retired.
Rivers is:
Wow, I don't find that accurate at all.
Rodgers' career ANY/A is more than a half-yard better than Brees'. That doesn't include that Rodgers plays at practically the biggest climate disadvantage possible compared to Brees or that ANY/A penalizes running QBs because they take more sacks while not including their rushing numbers. Brees is going to end up with better counting stats because he's played his entire career in a dome/warm weather and started his second year while Rodgers didn't until his fourth and played in Green Bay, but Rodgers is a better player and it's not particularly close.
And at no point did I say Brees is a better player, because that's not what we're talking about. I'd also bet you a good sum of money that very few of the guys in the voting room even know what ANY/A is, so it's kind of irrelevant to the discussion.
In addition to also having a SB MVP, Rodgers is a two-time MVP (Brees has zero), a two-time first team All Pro (Brees has one) and a winning percentage over 100 points better than Brees. He's also the all-time leader in passer rating by a considerable amount and has an iconic trait of being probably the best ever at extending plays. Even by traditional metrics, I would hope Rodgers gets this hypothetical honor.
Brees would be a first ballot hall of famer if he retired tomorrow. His counting stats will mean more today than they will once he retires. If he retired today, the earliest he will be eligible is 2023. By that time, quarterbacks like Matt Ryan and Matt Stafford should have counting stats comparable to Drew Brees.
This is an outstanding point. Inflation marches on.
Unless the second half of his career is a 180 from the first, Stafford has less than zero shot at the HOF. Ryan still has a long way to go and I don't see Romo getting in - as good as he was, he only had 127 starts and doesn't have the playoff success to put him over the top.
On one hand, you present facts and logic. On the other, Peter King really likes all of those guys.
Romo is a hard maybe and Ryan is on the right path, but short of a late career surge like Brees (averaging 37 TDs and a 101.2 qb rating in his 30s), Stafford has no chance at all. 1 pro-bowl and 0 playoff wins through 8 seasons? Hell no.
First, if you're going to quote me, don't cherry pick. I said specifically that if he retired today, voters wouldn't be looking at stats like ANY/A. Not about his current numbers, which he will add to considerably. Stafford and Ryan aren't even half way to his numbers, they're not getting there in five years, unless you think they're going to out and break the yardage record every season. They can't touch him on completion % and Ryan is the only one of the two even over 50% on TDs.
Would you say King is representative of the 50 HOF voters, or more of an anomaly with a bigger bully pulpit?
Yeah, I actually like Stafford, but he's 51-58 in his career, his only black ink is one season leading league in completions (he went 4-12 that year), and twice in attempts. Now, he's only 28, and could play for 7 or 8 more seasons, but the only way that's going to matter is if the Apocalypse comes and Detroit lucks into a generational talent at multiple positions and he gets some late career playoff success.
If the editors limited King's tombstone to one word, "Obsequious" would do nicely
First of all, great post. What about the Drew Bledsoe situation? I'm not talking about the Brady thing and losing it to injury, but did anyone (outside of WEEi callers) think that Bledsoe was on his way to the HOF in 2000? He was very good for long stretches, but he was never a HOF. He was also top 10 all time in yards at one point. He's now 13.
Yeah the "similar at age X" comps need to be taken with the caveat that Drew Brees played at an absolutely ridiculous level between ages 27 and 37. Dude threw for almost 54,000 yards in that span with 385 TDs.
Which is in part why I think it's a bit ridiculous to think that they will somehow look at the all time leader in most major passing categories and decide as a group that the number don't mean much because of the change in the offensive environment and inflation in stats and tell Brees he has to wait a year or two.
Drew Brees will be a slam dunk first ballot hall of famer. He's arguably a top 10 QB all time and his resume could be summed up as "Dan Marino with a ring". This is a silly argument.
Drew Bledsoe had the same advantage Matt Stafford and Jameis Winston had: they started most of the games in their age 21 season. 16 for Winston, 12 for Bledsoe, 10 for Stafford. I'm not trying to make a case for these young quarterbacks to make the HOF, but that any reliance on career passing yards and touchdowns as evidence is going to change.
Penny was a god that got hurt too much. Beat birth mark in his house in the playoffs.
I'm well aware of what Michelle's point was and have acknowledged and agreed with it (i think this is now the third time I've done as such.) For various reasons, I don't think that inflation will impact his candidacy, nor do I think it should.
Good post. Drew Brees is a first ballot Hall of Famer without a doubt.
I'd have agreed, up until the committee sat down this year to consider the candidacy of the 2nd-best WR of all time and decided he didn't even merit going into the final round, nevermind winning election. Perhaps I'm over-weighting that incident. Different factors at play - Owens was occasionally a malcontent, isn't a QB, wasn't a great interview, etc - but it's also possible that the voting committee has regressed in its evaluation.
I think you're overweighting his place in history, overweighting the incident (by which I assume you mean that he didn't make the final round), underweighting how much of a malcontent he was and putting far too much faith into a college blog to think Rush Limbaugh will have any actual impact on McNabb's candidacy. He's not a particularly strong case to get in (McNabb, that is).
Philip Rivers' hall of fame consideration is going to be dependent on the list of quarterback nominees for the hall of fame. Here is the list of 2017 nominations:
I'm honestly not trying to be a dick, but you're going to have to help me out with where you're going with this and what the relevancy is. (And also why you are including Blake Bortles as a top QB under 31.)
