Borderline HOF QBs Who Has Gone Criminally Underappreciated by the Public

Mooch

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Ken Anderson deserves consideration as his generation's Rivers. From 1972-83, his ANY/A+'s were 110, 121, 124, 129 (led league), 112, 110, 90, 105, 85, 136 (led league), 121 and 108 playing in a cold-weather division with the Steel Curtain. There's a bad three-year period in there but he was a very good player for a 12-year stretch and he at least went to a Super Bowl. The fact that he's out and Warren Moon, who has inferior numbers playing his entire career in a dome and didn't win a thing is in is an absolute joke. He was also considerably better than Ken Stabler but didn't have the luxury of playing with a bunch of HOFers, as the only one he played with in their prime was Munoz.
Good post. I'd also add another name to the discussion: John Brodie. 1970 MVP and took the 49ers to two NFC title games once they finally put some decent players around him. Led the league in passing yards per game three times, completions three times and TDs twice and was 3rd all-time in passing yards when he retired.
 

EricFeczko

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Rivers at least had Norv as his coach during his peak. Lol Norv and everything, but that is not a bad head coach for a QB to have.

Rivers looks to have more than a modest advantage in regular season performance by my eye.
For the QB? Sure. For the team? Norv Turner was worse than Jeff Fisher.
 

DJnVa

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Rvers' VORQ or whatever, no, I think we'll take a more nuanced view. But there were plenty of years where he was a top-half but not top-5 QB in the league. If he has neither overwhelming career value, peak value, or signature accomplishments, where does his HOF case really rest?
Rivers is:

22nd in weighted career value
10th in completions
12th in passing yards
8th in TDs
8th in passer rating
10th in yards/game
14th in yards/att
10th in completion percentage
22nd in interception percentage
24th in game winning drives
21st in comebacks

I know the comeback will be that it's a different game now, and of course that's true, but that weight career value speaks well of him.

Anyway, that's pretty good "career value".
 

Michelle34B

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There are three dominant passers that will be debated only amongst the best to ever play the position, that will go in the hall of fame first ballot:

Peyton Manning
Tom Brady
Aaron Rodgers



Drew Brees will go in after a couple years of debate, second or third ballot.

Roethlisberger and Manning will go in after more debate, probably around their seventh year on the ballot.

I don't see any other hall of fame quarterbacks without more work on their resume.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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There are three dominant passers that will be debated only amongst the best to ever play the position, that will go in the hall of fame first ballot:

Peyton Manning
Tom Brady
Aaron Rodgers



Drew Brees will go in after a couple years of debate, second or third ballot.

Roethlisberger and Manning will go in after more debate, probably around their seventh year on the ballot.

I don't see any other hall of fame quarterbacks without more work on their resume.
Wow, I don't find that accurate at all.

Brees will go in with a minimum of Super Bowl, SB MVP, 10 time Pro Bowler, 7 time yards leader, 4 time All Pro (1st or 2nd team), 2 time offensive player of the year and likely the NFL record holder in passing yards, completions, TDs, as well as possibly completion percentage and attempts. There's no debate coming about him. His box gets checked pretty quick the first time it's on the ballot.

Roethlisberger likely will take a second ballot, Manning most likely will take a couple more but two SBs and how he spells his last name gets him in sooner rather than later and neither take anywhere close to 7 years.

I'm not quite sure how you're putting Rodgers in on first ballot while not Brees, considering their body of work. That just seems crazy to me. Rodgers is already going to be 34 and only has nine full seasons. He won't amass the counting stats, so unless he wins another ring or two, I don't see him having a better case than Brees.
 
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axx

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Not exactly a fair stat, but in "defense" of Rivers every QB so far that has 100 "wins" is in the HoF or will definitely get in... Rivers is currently at 97.
 

Michelle34B

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Johnny Unitas, Jim Brown, Joe Montana, Steve Young, Brett Favre, Peyton Manning, Kurt Warner, Tom Brady, and Aaron Rodgers are the only multiple NFL MVP winners. Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady are the only two active players, and Kurt Warner is the only one that wasn't first ballot(third, this year).

Drew Brees could go first ballot. Aaron Rodgers won the 2011 NFL MVP, but the ridiculous statistics Brees put up that year(set the single-season passing yard record(5,476) and touchdowns (46) at that time at a 71.2% completion percentage) seem to have been forgotten. Fair or not, I think the passing numbers of this era will be viewed more critically by the time he is eligible. Just his last six years, his 30,485 passing yards would rank 43rd all-time, and 230 passing TDs would rank 31st. If Brees 2011 was remembered more fondly, I would agree with you.

Maybe it plays out like Montana(2000), Kelly(2002), Elway(2004), Marino(2005), Young(2005), Moon (2006), and Aikman (2006), where seven quarterbacks went in first ballot over seven years. I don't think these quarterbacks are viewed this way, but a lot can change by 2021 when Peyton Manning is inducted.
 

Rudy's Curve

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I'm not quite sure how you're putting Rodgers in on first ballot while not Brees, considering their body of work. That just seems crazy to me. Rodgers is already going to be 34 and only has nine full seasons. He won't amass the counting stats, so unless he wins another ring or two, I don't see him having a better case than Brees.
Rodgers' career ANY/A is more than a half-yard better than Brees'. That doesn't include that Rodgers plays at practically the biggest climate disadvantage possible compared to Brees or that ANY/A penalizes running QBs because they take more sacks while not including their rushing numbers. Brees is going to end up with better counting stats because he's played his entire career in a dome/warm weather and started his second year while Rodgers didn't until his fourth and played in Green Bay, but Rodgers is a better player and it's not particularly close.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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Rodgers' career ANY/A is more than a half-yard better than Brees'. That doesn't include that Rodgers plays at practically the biggest climate disadvantage possible compared to Brees or that ANY/A penalizes running QBs because they take more sacks while not including their rushing numbers. Brees is going to end up with better counting stats because he's played his entire career in a dome/warm weather and started his second year while Rodgers didn't until his fourth and played in Green Bay, but Rodgers is a better player and it's not particularly close.
And at no point did I say Brees is a better player, because that's not what we're talking about. I'd also bet you a good sum of money that very few of the guys in the voting room even know what ANY/A is, so it's kind of irrelevant to the discussion.

I'm well aware that part of why he has higher counting stats is because he's played longer, as witnessed by the fact I mentioned it. My point, which I think I made pretty clearly, is that I don't see how you can say Rodgers is lock stock first ballot and Brees isn't. If both retired tomorrow and they had four of five spots filled, I find it a little hard to think Peter King and his cronies are going to be citing advanced metrics when one of the guys has the resume Brees does. I'm not looking to get into a debate about who the better qb is and I made no attempt to start one. I'm saying I think it's foolish to think Brees isn't first ballot.
 

Rudy's Curve

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And at no point did I say Brees is a better player, because that's not what we're talking about. I'd also bet you a good sum of money that very few of the guys in the voting room even know what ANY/A is, so it's kind of irrelevant to the discussion.

I'm well aware that part of why he has higher counting stats is because he's played longer, as witnessed by the fact I mentioned it. My point, which I think I made pretty clearly, is that I don't see how you can say Rodgers is lock stock first ballot and Brees isn't. If both retired tomorrow and they had four of five spots filled, I find it a little hard to think Peter King and his cronies are going to be citing advanced metrics when one of the guys has the resume Brees does. I'm not looking to get into a debate about who the better qb is and I made no attempt to start one. I'm saying I think it's foolish to think Brees isn't first ballot.
In addition to also having a SB MVP, Rodgers is a two-time MVP (Brees has zero), a two-time first team All Pro (Brees has one) and a winning percentage over 100 points better than Brees. He's also the all-time leader in passer rating by a considerable amount and has an iconic trait of being probably the best ever at extending plays. Even by traditional metrics, I would hope Rodgers gets this hypothetical honor.
 

Michelle34B

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And at no point did I say Brees is a better player, because that's not what we're talking about. I'd also bet you a good sum of money that very few of the guys in the voting room even know what ANY/A is, so it's kind of irrelevant to the discussion.

I'm well aware that part of why he has higher counting stats is because he's played longer, as witnessed by the fact I mentioned it. My point, which I think I made pretty clearly, is that I don't see how you can say Rodgers is lock stock first ballot and Brees isn't. If both retired tomorrow and they had four of five spots filled...
Brees would be a first ballot hall of famer if he retired tomorrow. His counting stats will mean more today than they will once he retires. If he retired today, the earliest he will be eligible is 2023. By that time, quarterbacks like Matt Ryan and Matt Stafford should have counting stats comparable to Drew Brees.
 

GammonsSpecialPerson

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Brees would be a first ballot hall of famer if he retired tomorrow. His counting stats will mean more today than they will once he retires. If he retired today, the earliest he will be eligible is 2023. By that time, quarterbacks like Matt Ryan and Matt Stafford should have counting stats comparable to Drew Brees.
This is an outstanding point. Inflation marches on.

The NFL Hall is about Fame, so all these guys: Brees, Rivers, Roethlisberger, Eli, Rodgers, Ryan, Stafford, Romo - are getting in, at some point. Peter King really likes all of those guys. However IMO, of that group though only Rodgers is gonna be in the "was he the 2nd or 3rd best of this generation?" conversation - he still has time to get competitive with Peyton Manning. Brees was really good but he was never that level of great.
 

NortheasternPJ

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This is an outstanding point. Inflation marches on.

The NFL Hall is about Fame, so all these guys: Brees, Rivers, Roethlisberger, Eli, Rodgers, Ryan, Stafford, Romo - are getting in, at some point. Peter King really likes all of those guys. However IMO, of that group though only Rodgers is gonna be in the "was he the 2nd or 3rd best of this generation?" conversation - he still has time to get competitive with Peyton Manning. Brees was really good but he was never that level of great.
Stafford and Romo? I think that's a stretch.
 

Rudy's Curve

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This is an outstanding point. Inflation marches on.

The NFL Hall is about Fame, so all these guys: Brees, Rivers, Roethlisberger, Eli, Rodgers, Ryan, Stafford, Romo - are getting in, at some point. Peter King really likes all of those guys. However IMO, of that group though only Rodgers is gonna be in the "was he the 2nd or 3rd best of this generation?" conversation - he still has time to get competitive with Peyton Manning. Brees was really good but he was never that level of great.
Unless the second half of his career is a 180 from the first, Stafford has less than zero shot at the HOF. Ryan still has a long way to go and I don't see Romo getting in - as good as he was, he only had 127 starts and doesn't have the playoff success to put him over the top.
 

ilol@u

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I agree. Drew Brees was one of those QBs who made his stats from playing from behind/in losses. He has the 4th most losses in NFL history by a QB and has a good chance to be #1 by the end of his career.
 

GammonsSpecialPerson

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Unless the second half of his career is a 180 from the first, Stafford has less than zero shot at the HOF. Ryan still has a long way to go and I don't see Romo getting in - as good as he was, he only had 127 starts and doesn't have the playoff success to put him over the top.
On one hand, you present facts and logic. On the other, Peter King really likes all of those guys.
 

Euclis20

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Unless the second half of his career is a 180 from the first, Stafford has less than zero shot at the HOF. Ryan still has a long way to go and I don't see Romo getting in - as good as he was, he only had 127 starts and doesn't have the playoff success to put him over the top.
Romo is a hard maybe and Ryan is on the right path, but short of a late career surge like Brees (averaging 37 TDs and a 101.2 qb rating in his 30s), Stafford has no chance at all. 1 pro-bowl and 0 playoff wins through 8 seasons? Hell no.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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Brees would be a first ballot hall of famer if he retired tomorrow. His counting stats will mean more today than they will once he retires. If he retired today, the earliest he will be eligible is 2023. By that time, quarterbacks like Matt Ryan and Matt Stafford should have counting stats comparable to Drew Brees.
First, if you're going to quote me, don't cherry pick. I said specifically that if he retired today, voters wouldn't be looking at stats like ANY/A. Not about his current numbers, which he will add to considerably. Stafford and Ryan aren't even half way to his numbers, they're not getting there in five years, unless you think they're going to out and break the yardage record every season. They can't touch him on completion % and Ryan is the only one of the two even over 50% on TDs.

I'm aware that sheer stats don't mean what they used to, but they still mean a lot when compared to peers. Since Brees has some tread left on the tires, it certainly seems like he will be out of reach for anyone active unless TB12 actually does play until he's 45, or at least anyone we're talking about here. Narrative means a lot for these votes, as witnessed by the poster who cites Rodgers' 'iconic ability to extend plays'.

So yeah, I disagree. When the room of old men sit down one day to vote and Drew Brees' resume - including all time leader in yards, TDs, completions, attempts, %, spiced in with his accolades above and beyond that - is in view, they're going to check the box next to his name.
 

Michelle34B

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First, if you're going to quote me, don't cherry pick. I said specifically that if he retired today, voters wouldn't be looking at stats like ANY/A. Not about his current numbers, which he will add to considerably. Stafford and Ryan aren't even half way to his numbers, they're not getting there in five years, unless you think they're going to out and break the yardage record every season. They can't touch him on completion % and Ryan is the only one of the two even over 50% on TDs.

I'm aware that sheer stats don't mean what they used to, but they still mean a lot when compared to peers. Since Brees has some tread left on the tires, it certainly seems like he will be out of reach for anyone active unless TB12 actually does play until he's 45, or at least anyone we're talking about here. Narrative means a lot for these votes, as witnessed by the poster who cites Rodgers' 'iconic ability to extend plays'.

So yeah, I disagree. When the room of old men sit down one day to vote and Drew Brees' resume - including all time leader in yards, TDs, completions, attempts, %, spiced in with his accolades above and beyond that - is in view, they're going to check the box next to his name.

It doesn't matter if Stafford and Ryan aren't halfway to Brees' numbers, they are ahead of Drew Brees at their respective ages. Each should easily be in the top ten of passing yards and TD in five years if they stay healthy. Every young quarterback listed below is ahead of Brees in passing yards and TD at their respective ages.



Career stats through age 22 season
Drew Brees 221 yards, 1 TD
Jameis Winston 8,132 yards, 50 TD

Career stats through age 23 season
Drew Brees 3,505 yards, 18 TD
Marcus Mariota 6,244 yards, 45 TD

Career stats through age 24 season
Drew Brees 5,613 yards, 29 TD
Blake Bortles 11,241 yards, 69 TD

Career stats through age 25 season
Drew Brees 8,772 yards, 56 TD
Derek Carr 11,194, 84 TD

Career stats through age 27 season
Drew Brees 16,766 yards, 106 TD
Cam Newton 21,772 yards, 136 TD
Andrew Luck 19,078 yards, 132 TD

Career stats through age 28 season
Drew Brees 21,189 yards, 134 TD
Matt Stafford 30,303 yards, 187 TD


Career stats through age 31 season
Drew Brees 35,266 yards, 235 TD
Matt Ryan 37,701 yards, 240 TD


Career stats through age 37 season
Drew Brees 66,111 yards, 465 TD

Average passing yards and TD needed to match Drew Brees through their age 37 season.

Jameis Winston: 3,865 yards, 28 TD over 15 seasons
Marcus Mariota:4,276 yards, 30 TD over 14 seasons
Blake Bortles: 4,220 yards, 30 TD over 13 seasons
Derek Carr: 4,576 yards, 32 TD over 12 seasons
Cam Newton 4,434 yards, 33 TD over 10 seasons
Andrew Luck: 4,703 yards, 33 TD over 10 seasons.
Matt Stafford: 3,979 yards, 31 TD over 9 seasons
Matt Ryan: 4,735 yards, 38 TD over 6 seasons
 

Average Reds

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From earlier in the thread, Ken Anderson is a great example. And to bsj's point, McNabb is as well.

There's an argument to be made that Matthew Stafford is underrated, but it's comical to suggest that he will inevitably become a Hall of Famer.
 

InstaFace

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Which is great. [Peter King] is also 1 of 50.
Would you say King is representative of the 50 HOF voters, or more of an anomaly with a bigger bully pulpit?

The Terrell Owens brouhaha featured a good ten voters defending the decision by describing the scene in the inner HOF sanctum, and the vast majority of them appeared - from their own words and descriptions - to be knuckle-draggers.
 

DJnVa

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From earlier in the thread, Ken Anderson is a great example. And to bsj's point, McNabb is as well.

There's an argument to be made that Matthew Stafford is underrated, but it's comical to suggest that he will inevitably become a Hall of Famer.
Yeah, I actually like Stafford, but he's 51-58 in his career, his only black ink is one season leading league in completions (he went 4-12 that year), and twice in attempts. Now, he's only 28, and could play for 7 or 8 more seasons, but the only way that's going to matter is if the Apocalypse comes and Detroit lucks into a generational talent at multiple positions and he gets some late career playoff success.

It is crazy to think that if he plays 7 more seasons he's going to be top 10 in TDs, yards, completions, etc. Possibly top 5 or so.

But outside of some "No Way In Hell Is It Going To Happen" playoff success, he's kinda gonna be the poster boy for this generation of "empty" QB numbers.
 

Leather

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I think King probably has influence exceeding his 2% voting share, but his attitudes towards star-level players, especially QBs, ranges from pandering to outright obsequious. His entire professional raison d'etre is to get famous football players to give him quotes that he can then use to build up the reputation/mythos of said player, so they give him more quotes, etc...

So he's compromised, and his comments should be taken with a huge grain of salt.
 

mwonow

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I think King probably has influence exceeding his 2% voting share, but his attitudes towards star-level players, especially QBs, ranges from pandering to outright obsequious. His entire professional raison d'etre is to get famous football players to give him quotes that he can then use to build up the reputation/mythos of said player, so they give him more quotes, etc...

So he's compromised, and his comments should be taken with a huge grain of salt.
If the editors limited King's tombstone to one word, "Obsequious" would do nicely
 

ilol@u

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It doesn't matter if Stafford and Ryan aren't halfway to Brees' numbers, they are ahead of Drew Brees at their respective ages. Each should easily be in the top ten of passing yards and TD in five years if they stay healthy. Every young quarterback listed below is ahead of Brees in passing yards and TD at their respective ages.



Career stats through age 22 season
Drew Brees 221 yards, 1 TD
Jameis Winston 8,132 yards, 50 TD

Career stats through age 23 season
Drew Brees 3,505 yards, 18 TD
Marcus Mariota 6,244 yards, 45 TD

Career stats through age 24 season
Drew Brees 5,613 yards, 29 TD
Blake Bortles 11,241 yards, 69 TD

Career stats through age 25 season
Drew Brees 8,772 yards, 56 TD
Derek Carr 11,194, 84 TD

Career stats through age 27 season
Drew Brees 16,766 yards, 106 TD
Cam Newton 21,772 yards, 136 TD
Andrew Luck 19,078 yards, 132 TD

Career stats through age 28 season
Drew Brees 21,189 yards, 134 TD
Matt Stafford 30,303 yards, 187 TD


Career stats through age 31 season
Drew Brees 35,266 yards, 235 TD
Matt Ryan 37,701 yards, 240 TD


Career stats through age 37 season
Drew Brees 66,111 yards, 465 TD

Average passing yards and TD needed to match Drew Brees through their age 37 season.

Jameis Winston: 3,865 yards, 28 TD over 15 seasons
Marcus Mariota:4,276 yards, 30 TD over 14 seasons
Blake Bortles: 4,220 yards, 30 TD over 13 seasons
Derek Carr: 4,576 yards, 32 TD over 12 seasons
Cam Newton 4,434 yards, 33 TD over 10 seasons
Andrew Luck: 4,703 yards, 33 TD over 10 seasons.
Matt Stafford: 3,979 yards, 31 TD over 9 seasons
Matt Ryan: 4,735 yards, 38 TD over 6 seasons
Great post.
 

bakahump

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Rivers is currently 97-79 over his career.

As I mentioned over the last 7 he is 51-61

He is 35 so he probably isnt playing another 7. But 4 seems possible.

Over the last 4 he is 27-37. With Oakland, Denver and KC in the division, thats % is probably not improving.

Lets knock off a couple of wins and losses for games he misses for (possible) late career injury say he goes 25-35
That puts him at 122- 116.

6 games over .500 in 236 Starts.

Warren Moon is the closest comp I can find at 102-101 in 203 (NFL) starts.
 

NortheasternPJ

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It doesn't matter if Stafford and Ryan aren't halfway to Brees' numbers, they are ahead of Drew Brees at their respective ages. Each should easily be in the top ten of passing yards and TD in five years if they stay healthy. Every young quarterback listed below is ahead of Brees in passing yards and TD at their respective ages.



Career stats through age 22 season
Drew Brees 221 yards, 1 TD
Jameis Winston 8,132 yards, 50 TD

Career stats through age 23 season
Drew Brees 3,505 yards, 18 TD
Marcus Mariota 6,244 yards, 45 TD

Career stats through age 24 season
Drew Brees 5,613 yards, 29 TD
Blake Bortles 11,241 yards, 69 TD

Career stats through age 25 season
Drew Brees 8,772 yards, 56 TD
Derek Carr 11,194, 84 TD

Career stats through age 27 season
Drew Brees 16,766 yards, 106 TD
Cam Newton 21,772 yards, 136 TD
Andrew Luck 19,078 yards, 132 TD

Career stats through age 28 season
Drew Brees 21,189 yards, 134 TD
Matt Stafford 30,303 yards, 187 TD



Career stats through age 31 season
Drew Brees 35,266 yards, 235 TD
Matt Ryan 37,701 yards, 240 TD


Career stats through age 37 season
Drew Brees 66,111 yards, 465 TD

Average passing yards and TD needed to match Drew Brees through their age 37 season.

Jameis Winston: 3,865 yards, 28 TD over 15 seasons
Marcus Mariota:4,276 yards, 30 TD over 14 seasons
Blake Bortles: 4,220 yards, 30 TD over 13 seasons
Derek Carr: 4,576 yards, 32 TD over 12 seasons
Cam Newton 4,434 yards, 33 TD over 10 seasons
Andrew Luck: 4,703 yards, 33 TD over 10 seasons.
Matt Stafford: 3,979 yards, 31 TD over 9 seasons
Matt Ryan: 4,735 yards, 38 TD over 6 seasons
First of all, great post. What about the Drew Bledsoe situation? I'm not talking about the Brady thing and losing it to injury, but did anyone (outside of WEEi callers) think that Bledsoe was on his way to the HOF in 2000? He was very good for long stretches, but he was never a HOF. He was also top 10 all time in yards at one point. He's now 13.

Bledsoe @ age 28:
29,527 yards, 164 TD

Much ahead of Brees and just under Stafford. I really hate counting stats in the NFL when it comes to QBs. If Bledsoe played another 10 years at that level, I don't think he'd be considered a HOF.
 

Bob420

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Luck, Stafford and Ryan have one season each with the numbers required to catch Brees at age 37. Pretty tough to say they will do it for the next 10 years or so.
 

TFisNEXT

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Luck, Stafford and Ryan have one season each with the numbers required to catch Brees at age 37. Pretty tough to say they will do it for the next 10 years or so.
Yeah the "similar at age X" comps need to be taken with the caveat that Drew Brees played at an absolutely ridiculous level between ages 27 and 37. Dude threw for almost 54,000 yards in that span with 385 TDs.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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Would you say King is representative of the 50 HOF voters, or more of an anomaly with a bigger bully pulpit?

The Terrell Owens brouhaha featured a good ten voters defending the decision by describing the scene in the inner HOF sanctum, and the vast majority of them appeared - from their own words and descriptions - to be knuckle-draggers.
Which is in part why I think it's a bit ridiculous to think that they will somehow look at the all time leader in most major passing categories and decide as a group that the number don't mean much because of the change in the offensive environment and inflation in stats and tell Brees he has to wait a year or two.

We can draw out all the projections we want - which is great, but presumes quite a few things, including injury, loss of job, earlier retirement, many other things, etc - but I don't find them particularly instructive to this debate. Someone here raise your hand if you think Blake Bortles will even be in the league at 30, let alone 37. Anyone think Jameis Winston is playing 15 more seasons?

Maybe it's the Brady factor, but assuming any QB will be in the league that long - let alone effective and starting - seems foolish to me. Yes, they're protected more than ever, but it's outliers that can stay effective that long. Brees has and until those other guys do start getting close, they aren't really in the conversation for me to consider in comparison.

I realize the exercise was done to illustrate that stats have gone up in this NFL, but I don't think that's particularly relevant or useful here when A) the voters are knuckle draggers, B) that kind of longevity is rare so it's most likely that none of those guys ever reach Brees' numbers at 37, let alone what he finishes with and C) it's a point in his favor that he has in fact played this long and effectively in a sport that has a severely short shelf life. A portion of my stance isn't even that he should be a first ballot HoFer (though I do think he should be), but also that I think it's kinda silly to think he won't be. In part because of the point you make here.

As to the 1/50 comment on King, that was in direct response to the poster saying Stafford and Romo will get in because King likes them. While he is certainly representative of the group's mindset, that doesn't mean they all have the same binkies.
 

InstaFace

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Yeah, I buy that. Brees may not be a first-balloter in part because of the logjam at so many other positions, but I'll agree he'll go in, and within his first few years at least.

Michelle's point though, I think, was that the continuous rule adjustments to favor offense have meant stat inflation is proceeding at such a pace that all a league-average QB needs is longevity, not particular grace or ability, to match counting stats once thought untouchable. Dan Marino's 1984 record passing-yard total was once thought unbreakable, until Brees did it in 2011 and in rapid succession there are now 6 higher season totals, 4 of them by Brees himself. Who's to say that in 6 years what sounded like a staggering statistical achievement might not sound ordinary? I happen to think Brees is safely into legendary status in that regard, but more marginal cases may indeed feel watered-down by the time they come up for discussion.

And to bring this back around to the thread topic: I discovered while looking this stuff up that the Career Passer-Rating leaderboard has Tony Romo at #4, safely retired, behind Rodgers, Wilson and Brady and just ahead of Young, Manning and Brees. But who's between Brees at #7 and Roethlisberger at #9? None other than Philip Rivers, career rating 94.7. The list isn't perfect (Chad Pennington is at #14) nor era-adjusted, but it's an interesting point in Rivers' favor.
 

rodderick

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Yeah, I buy that. Brees may not be a first-balloter in part because of the logjam at so many other positions, but I'll agree he'll go in, and within his first few years at least.

Michelle's point though, I think, was that the continuous rule adjustments to favor offense have meant stat inflation is proceeding at such a pace that all a league-average QB needs is longevity, not particular grace or ability, to match counting stats once thought untouchable. Dan Marino's 1984 record passing-yard total was once thought unbreakable, until Brees did it in 2011 and in rapid succession there are now 6 higher season totals, 4 of them by Brees himself. Who's to say that in 6 years what sounded like a staggering statistical achievement might not sound ordinary? I happen to think Brees is safely into legendary status in that regard, but more marginal cases may indeed feel watered-down by the time they come up for discussion.

And to bring this back around to the thread topic: I discovered while looking this stuff up that the Career Passer-Rating leaderboard has Tony Romo at #4, safely retired, behind Rodgers, Wilson and Brady and just ahead of Young, Manning and Brees. But who's between Brees at #7 and Roethlisberger at #9? None other than Philip Rivers, career rating 94.7. The list isn't perfect (Chad Pennington is at #14) nor era-adjusted, but it's an interesting point in Rivers' favor.
Drew Brees will be a slam dunk first ballot hall of famer. He's arguably a top 10 QB all time and his resume could be summed up as "Dan Marino with a ring". This is a silly argument.
 

DJnVa

Dorito Dawg
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Dec 16, 2010
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Yeah, Brees shouldn't come up in a thread titled "borderline HOFers".
 

bankshot1

Member
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where I was last at
Comparing the stats of QBs from different eras and hoping for meaningful comparisons is a fools errand.
There are HoF QBs, and pretty fair passers sitting well past #50 based on counting stats.
 

Kliq

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Mar 31, 2013
23,385
Brees is one of the best QBs ever. He's put up unprecedented numbers and granted he's played in a dome and in warm weather cities his entire career, but think about how bad his supporting cast has been. His best weapons of been a few years of Antonio Gates and Jimmy Graham, Marques Colston and Brandin Cooks. He's never had that great of a running game either. There are also guys like Robert Meachem, Lance Moore, Devry Henderson and others who are solid players for New Orleans and scrubs everywhere else. Who has played with Brees and hasn't had their best season while with the Saints? Out of the best QBs of the last 20 years, he has had by far the least help.
 

Michelle34B

New Member
Aug 2, 2006
264
First of all, great post. What about the Drew Bledsoe situation? I'm not talking about the Brady thing and losing it to injury, but did anyone (outside of WEEi callers) think that Bledsoe was on his way to the HOF in 2000? He was very good for long stretches, but he was never a HOF. He was also top 10 all time in yards at one point. He's now 13.

Bledsoe @ age 28:
29,527 yards, 164 TD

Much ahead of Brees and just under Stafford. I really hate counting stats in the NFL when it comes to QBs. If Bledsoe played another 10 years at that level, I don't think he'd be considered a HOF.
Drew Bledsoe had the same advantage Matt Stafford and Jameis Winston had: they started most of the games in their age 21 season. 16 for Winston, 12 for Bledsoe, 10 for Stafford. I'm not trying to make a case for these young quarterbacks to make the HOF, but that any reliance on career passing yards and touchdowns as evidence is going to change.
 

Michelle34B

New Member
Aug 2, 2006
264
Donovan McNabb: His mobility led to the Eagles dominating their division from 2000-2004. 15,978 passing yards, 110 passing TD; 2,146 rushing yards, 20 rushing TD. The issues against him are the missed games, playoff results, and his sharp decline after leaving Andy Reid and the Eagles. I think you have to have a hard look at Andy Reid as a Hall of Fame coach before considering McNabb. The bar has also been set high for quarterbacks without a Super Bowl Ring.

I might be missing someone here, but quarterbacks in the Hall of Fame without a Super Bowl ring during the Super Bowl era are:

Sonny Jurgensen: He won an NFL championship in 1960, was injured and could not play in Super Bowl VII, and played the majority of his career before the Super Bowl era.

Fran Tarkenton retired as the career leader in passing yards and touchdowns, both records held by Johnny Unitas.

Dan Fouts retired as only the third person with 40,000 passing yards (Tarkenton, Unitas), and the fourth person with 250 TD (Tarkenton, Unitas, Jurgensen).

Dan Marino retired as the career leader in passing yards and touchdowns. Dan Marino 1984, 5,084 yards, 48 TD. The first time a QB had over 5,000 yards and/or 40 TD in a season. Dan Marino became the first QB with 50,000 and 60,000 passing yards.

Jim Kelly went to four consecutive Super Bowls.

Warren Moon played six years in the CFL with the Edmonton Eskimos before entering the NFL.


Ben Roethlisberger: Now that Kurt Warner is a hall of famer, every quarterback that has played in three Super Bowls has made it into the Hall of Fame.

Eli Manning: Continuing on the point about Roethlisberger, if Manning doesn't make it to a third Super Bowl, or have some deep playoff success with All-Pro talent Odell Beckham Jr., his candidacy continues to be quite vexing.

Tony Romo: "Let's not put him in Canton yet, fellas."
 
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Average Reds

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Sep 24, 2007
35,616
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I think Roethlisberger will be a first ballot Hall of Famer and I don't think it's particularly close.

Eli will get in, but they may make him sweat a few years. Or, they may shock us and vote him in right away.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

Homeland Security
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Dec 4, 2005
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Yeah, I buy that. Brees may not be a first-balloter in part because of the logjam at so many other positions, but I'll agree he'll go in, and within his first few years at least.

Michelle's point though, I think, was that the continuous rule adjustments to favor offense have meant stat inflation is proceeding at such a pace that all a league-average QB needs is longevity, not particular grace or ability, to match counting stats once thought untouchable. Dan Marino's 1984 record passing-yard total was once thought unbreakable, until Brees did it in 2011 and in rapid succession there are now 6 higher season totals, 4 of them by Brees himself. Who's to say that in 6 years what sounded like a staggering statistical achievement might not sound ordinary? I happen to think Brees is safely into legendary status in that regard, but more marginal cases may indeed feel watered-down by the time they come up for discussion.
I'm well aware of what Michelle's point was and have acknowledged and agreed with it (i think this is now the third time I've done as such.) For various reasons, I don't think that inflation will impact his candidacy, nor do I think it should.

He's been a top 3-4 QB for over a dozen years and while age comparisons are great and all, it's ignoring that those players cited walked into the new environment, while Brees played in the old system and then into the new one, remaining a top 5 QB the entire time. It's also ignoring that longevity is not a given and in fact is something that adds to his case.

My original question was how one could put Rodgers as a lock and not Brees. The responses were statistical inflation, which also favor Rodgers. Citing him as the highest rated passer is hypocritical, because those rule adjustments in turn contributed to that. The next reason I got was 'two time MVP and All Pro (ok, sure, that's a plus for him) and an 'iconic ability to extend plays', whatever that's supposed to be weighed as. He's good at scrambling, yes. But plenty of other QBs are on par (for me at least) with extending a play, whether that be moving in the pocket or scrambling. Brees is certainly on that list, as are Wilson, Brady, Roethlisberger, Romo and Newton.

I'd give the nod to Rodgers as probably the most physically gifted QB - he can throw across his body better than anyone and he can make pinpoint throws on the run - but again, I'm not trying to compare him to Brees in a "who's a better QB" way, I'm simply saying that weighing all factors of their careers, I think they're pretty much a dead heat when it comes to HoF - with Brees having done it longer; in my hypothetical that they both retired tomorrow, I think the nod goes to Brees, but I can see the argument between reasonable minds and my contention there was simply that the voters won't be looking at advanced metrics when making that decision - both the voters and the advanced stats are far behind their baseball equivalent.

They're both lock stock first ballot guys. It seems foolish to me to ding the guy because of stat inflations - he still exceeds his peers many years since those have been a factor and I find it irrelevant to point out that if 'player x plays 14 more season, he could match him by putting up y stats', because most QBs don't play that long. If Ezekiel Elliot keeps his pace up, Emmit Smith will look like dog meat. Anyone expect that?

He's most likely going to end up with ~ 80k passing yards, ~ 600 TDs, ~ 7k completions and possibly the completion percentage record (over a 17+ season career). Inflation or not, he will blow those records out of the water. So, I don't really care about inflation in his case. If anyone wants to believe it's only because of inflation or that any of the players listed will last that long and meet his numbers, I will gladly lay odds for a charity bet. It's not happening.

As cited, Warren Moon was first ballot. Anyone want to try to convince me he was a better QB than Drew Brees? I doubt it.

His win/loss record isn't the best, but that's ignoring a few things, including having his head coach banished for a year over a bullshit scandal (which we should all be familiar with here; which came just off a 13-3 season and two years after a SB, while also ravaging them off their DC and a handful of players) and having half an idiot for a GM - Loomis has mismanaged the cap and the draft for years and made some pretty bad moves on defense for years now.

He's a top 10 QB, all time (as someone else mentioned). On top of all those counting stat records he will hold at retirement, he also has the most consecutive games with a TD pass (54), most 5k yards season (5; yes, inflation, I know, but Brady, Rodgers and Manning didn't do it), most consecutive 4k yard season (11; again same era), is sixth in career wins (138) and is the fastest to reach 60k, likely headed towards the first ever to 80K and possibly 600 TDs.

He will be first ballot, I'm quite confident on that. And also that as "knuckle dragging" as the voters seem to be, they will be able to distinguish that from if Matt Stafford runs up the yardage to be on pace to match him "if he plays x amount more years" when his name comes up.

Edited for some clarity.
 
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Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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Jul 2, 2006
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I'm well aware of what Michelle's point was and have acknowledged and agreed with it (i think this is now the third time I've done as such.) For various reasons, I don't think that inflation will impact his candidacy, nor do I think it should.

He's been a top 3-4 QB for over a dozen years and while age comparisons are great and all, it's ignoring that those players cited walked into the new environment, while Brees played in the old system and then into the new one, remaining a top 5 QB the entire time. It's also ignoring that longevity is not a given and in fact is something that adds to his case.

My original question was how one could put Rodgers as a lock and not Brees. The responses were statistical inflation, which also favor Rodgers. Citing him as the highest rated passer is hypocritical, because those rule adjustments in turn contributed to that. The next reason I got was 'two time MVP and All Pro (ok, sure, that's a plus for him) and an 'iconic ability to extend plays', whatever that's supposed to be weighed as. He's good at scrambling, yes. But plenty of other QBs are on par (for me at least) with extending a play, whether that be moving in the pocket or scrambling. Brees is certainly on that list, as are Wilson, Brady, Roethlisberger, Romo and Newton.

I'd give the nod to Rodgers as probably the most physically gifted QB - he can throw across his body better than anyone and he can make pinpoint throws on the run - but again, I'm not trying to compare him to Brees in a "who's a better QB" way, I'm simply saying that weighing all factors of their careers, I think they're pretty much a dead heat when it comes to HoF - with Brees having done it longer; in my hypothetical that they both retired tomorrow, I think the nod goes to Brees, but I can see the argument between reasonable minds and my contention there was simply that the voters won't be looking at advanced metrics when making that decision - both the voters and the advanced stats are far behind their baseball equivalent.

They're both lock stock first ballot guys. It seems foolish to me to ding the guy because of stat inflations - he still exceeds his peers many years since those have been a factor and I find it irrelevant to point out that if 'player x plays 14 more season, he could match him by putting up y stats', because most QBs don't play that long. If Ezekiel Elliot keeps his pace up, Emmit Smith will look like dog meat. Anyone expect that?

He's most likely going to end up with ~ 80k passing yards, ~ 600 TDs, ~ 7k completions and possibly the completion percentage record (over a 17+ season career). Inflation or not, he will blow those records out of the water. So, I don't really care about inflation in his case. If anyone wants to believe it's only because of inflation or that any of the players listed will last that long and meet his numbers, I will gladly lay odds for a charity bet. It's not happening.

As cited, Warren Moon was first ballot. Anyone want to try to convince me he was a better QB than Drew Brees? I doubt it.

His win/loss record isn't the best, but that's ignoring a few things, including having his head coach banished for a year over a bullshit scandal (which we should all be familiar with here; which came just off a 13-3 season and two years after a SB, while also ravaging them off their DC and a handful of players) and having half an idiot for a GM - Loomis has mismanaged the cap and the draft for years and made some pretty bad moves on defense for years now.

He's a top 10 QB, all time (as someone else mentioned). On top of all those counting stat records he will hold at retirement, he also has the most consecutive games with a TD pass (54), most 5k yards season (5; yes, inflation, I know, but Brady, Rodgers and Manning didn't do it), most consecutive 4k yard season (11; again same era), is sixth in career wins (138) and is the fastest to reach 60k, likely headed towards the first ever to 80K and possibly 600 TDs.

He will be first ballot, I'm quite confident on that. And also that as "knuckle dragging" as the voters seem to be, they will be able to distinguish that from if Matt Stafford runs up the yardage to be on pace to match him "if he plays x amount more years" when his name comes up.

Edited for some clarity.
Good post. Drew Brees is a first ballot Hall of Famer without a doubt.

In addition to Moon, guys like Jim Kelley, Troy Aikman, and Dan Fouts have also been first ballot Hall of Famers. Its actually pretty rare for QBs to get into the hall but not do it on the first ballot. Before Kurt Warner, the last QB to do so was Bob Griese.
 

InstaFace

The Ultimate One
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Sep 27, 2016
23,301
Pittsburgh, PA
Drew Brees will be a slam dunk first ballot hall of famer. He's arguably a top 10 QB all time and his resume could be summed up as "Dan Marino with a ring". This is a silly argument.
Good post. Drew Brees is a first ballot Hall of Famer without a doubt.

In addition to Moon, guys like Jim Kelley, Troy Aikman, and Dan Fouts have also been first ballot Hall of Famers. Its actually pretty rare for QBs to get into the hall but not do it on the first ballot. Before Kurt Warner, the last QB to do so was Bob Griese.
I'd have agreed, up until the committee sat down this year to consider the candidacy of the 2nd-best WR of all time and decided he didn't even merit going into the final round, nevermind winning election. Perhaps I'm over-weighting that incident. Different factors at play - Owens was occasionally a malcontent, isn't a QB, wasn't a great interview, etc - but it's also possible that the voting committee has regressed in its evaluation.

Nevertheless, I think Rivers is much closer to the bubble. And as Michelle argues, Donovan McNabb might deserve it even more than Rivers, but it's certainly possible the likes of Rush f'ing Limbaugh could keep him out. McNabb certainly wins on the "under-appreciated" front.
 

Michelle34B

New Member
Aug 2, 2006
264
Ezekiel Elliot was in first grade when Emmitt Smith broke Walter Payton's rushing record. He was a freshman in high school when Emmitt Smith was inducted into the Hall of Fame. I listed the majority of the top quarterbacks in the NFL under 31.

Drew Brees is 38 this year. Tom Brady is the only one up here, and he has been peerless. He received one of the two votes Cam Newton didn't get for MVP in 2016, and should have been MVP last year. I hope Drew Brees gets to 80k yards, 600 TD, 7k completions, and highest career completion percentage over a career like you've said.

I'll concede that Drew Brees and Ben Roethlisberger are first ballot hall of famers, and Manning possibly gets in after a few years.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

Homeland Security
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Dec 4, 2005
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I'd have agreed, up until the committee sat down this year to consider the candidacy of the 2nd-best WR of all time and decided he didn't even merit going into the final round, nevermind winning election. Perhaps I'm over-weighting that incident. Different factors at play - Owens was occasionally a malcontent, isn't a QB, wasn't a great interview, etc - but it's also possible that the voting committee has regressed in its evaluation.

Nevertheless, I think Rivers is much closer to the bubble. And as Michelle argues, Donovan McNabb might deserve it even more than Rivers, but it's certainly possible the likes of Rush f'ing Limbaugh could keep him out. McNabb certainly wins on the "under-appreciated" front.
I think you're overweighting his place in history, overweighting the incident (by which I assume you mean that he didn't make the final round), underweighting how much of a malcontent he was and putting far too much faith into a college blog to think Rush Limbaugh will have any actual impact on McNabb's candidacy. He's not a particularly strong case to get in (McNabb, that is).
 

Michelle34B

New Member
Aug 2, 2006
264
I'd have agreed, up until the committee sat down this year to consider the candidacy of the 2nd-best WR of all time and decided he didn't even merit going into the final round, nevermind winning election. Perhaps I'm over-weighting that incident. Different factors at play - Owens was occasionally a malcontent, isn't a QB, wasn't a great interview, etc - but it's also possible that the voting committee has regressed in its evaluation.

Nevertheless, I think Rivers is much closer to the bubble. And as Michelle argues, Donovan McNabb might deserve it even more than Rivers, but it's certainly possible the likes of Rush f'ing Limbaugh could keep him out. McNabb certainly wins on the "under-appreciated" front.
Philip Rivers' hall of fame consideration is going to be dependent on the list of quarterback nominees for the hall of fame. Here is the list of 2017 nominations:

Phil Simms
: HOF eligible since 1999. Has never been a semifinalist or finalist. In 2019, 25 years after retirement, Simms will be eligible for consideration for the senior committee finalist spot. This year it was Kenny Easley.
Randall Cunningham: HOF eligible since 2007. Has never been a semifinalist or finalist.
Doug Flutie: HOF eligible since 2011. Has never been a semifinalist or finalist.
Drew Bledsoe: HOF eligible since 2012. Has never been a semifinalist or finalist.
Steve McNair: HOF eligible since 2013. Has never been a semifinalist or finalist.
Kurt Warner: HOF eligible since 2015. Has been a finalist all three years of eligibility, and is being inducted in the 2017 class for the hall of fame.
Donovan McNabb: HOF eligible since 2017. Was not a semifinalist or finalist.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

Homeland Security
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Dec 4, 2005
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Ezekiel Elliot was in first grade when Emmitt Smith broke Walter Payton's rushing record. He was a freshman in high school when Emmitt Smith was inducted into the Hall of Fame. I listed the majority of the top quarterbacks in the NFL under 31.
I'm honestly not trying to be a dick, but you're going to have to help me out with where you're going with this and what the relevancy is. (And also why you are including Blake Bortles as a top QB under 31.)

My point in citing Elliot was that while projections are great, in the end, they really don't mean a whole hell of a lot, most especially for young players and further, especially for QBs. If you'd prefer, I could extrapolate out what Colin Kapaernick's career stats would have been after his SB year and project his career up to his age 37 season. Doesn't really prove out. At his early career pace, as mentioned by someone else, Bledsoe would have likely passed Marino if he maintained his performance. That didn't happen either.

You illustrated your point about inflation, but you ignore the absurdity of saying something like "Well, his numbers are great, but Jameis Winston only needs to average X over the next 14 years to match it." Because the probability of that happening is pretty small due to the nature of the beast.
 

Michelle34B

New Member
Aug 2, 2006
264
Emmitt Smith was 26 when Ezekiel Elliott was born. He could be his father. Matt Ryan and Drew Brees have played head-to-head 16 times. Colin Kaepernick at Age 26, had 5,046 passing yards, and 31 TD. Drew Bledsoe? Name me the other contemporary quarterbacks to Drew Bledsoe who could also be projected to pass Marino at age 28? I'll give you two: Daunte Culpepper and Brett Favre.

Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota, Blake Bortles, Derek Carr, Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, Matt Stafford, and Matt Ryan.

You're going to keep referring to Blake Bortles from that list? You got me, I don't think Blake Bortles is the best quarterback in that group, and he won't break any records set by Drew Brees. I'm sure there was a much better way to have done the projections.

I'd rather discuss borderline Hall of Fame quarterbacks, I can agree to disagree with you on this.
 
Nov 24, 2015
1,204
I think Brees's numbers are so ridiculously high that while he is a bit of a compiler (in that he's played most of his career on a team that's defensive goal is to basically just get whatever is going to happen over as quickly as possible), his case is so strong that he should be pretty much a shoe-in. He also played a good chunk of his career in the pre-2008 NFL, like Brady and Manning. Rodgers' case is very strong, but his numbers aren't going to look as impressive in a couple years as they do now.

For guys like Ryan, Luck, etc, the current NFL offensive environment is ridiculously passing friendly, and their stats are going to be discounted quite a bit. From just 2008, QBs are throwing 50 more passes a year, yds/season have gone up by almost 500, and your average QB throws 4.5 more TDs and 1.5 less Ints.

Rodgers is probably a shoe-in despite this, but this will absolutely hurt guys like Ben, Rivers, and Eli (who will get in, but really shouldn't).