The most impressive thing so far is Bogaerts is showing to be an at least average performer at his position despite the fact that his highest-upside tool (power) has not shown up yet. If he has a power surge at some point this year, he could really break out.
Bogaerts Bat
- Thread starter mfried
- Start date
Bogaerts' MLB rank among all qualified SS:
AVG: #4 (.298)
OBP: #3 (.344)
SLG: #9 (.403)
OPS: #5 (.747)
WAR: #4 (1.6)
RC: #5 (25.8)
RC27: #4 (5.24)
FLD%: #7 (.983)
RF: #7 (4.57)
He is, even at this point in his career, at the tender age of 22, almost an elite offensive SS (once the power comes along, he will be), and at least an average defensive SS.
In other words, Bogaerts, at this point, is pretty much on track to be exactly what we hoped he would be.
AVG: #4 (.298)
OBP: #3 (.344)
SLG: #9 (.403)
OPS: #5 (.747)
WAR: #4 (1.6)
RC: #5 (25.8)
RC27: #4 (5.24)
FLD%: #7 (.983)
RF: #7 (4.57)
He is, even at this point in his career, at the tender age of 22, almost an elite offensive SS (once the power comes along, he will be), and at least an average defensive SS.
In other words, Bogaerts, at this point, is pretty much on track to be exactly what we hoped he would be.
So far, the discussion has focused on hard data and rightly so, but a non-quantifiable considerations can provide some insight -
The '14 season was disappointing and possibly the first time he's faced real adversity in his baseball career. His off-season response was exactly what fans would have hoped for - he worked his ass off trying to get better. He's clearly a better fielder and, at the plate, he's a tougher out. The power hasn't showed up yet but he's young and it is a different era.
A big reason why I'm optimistic
The '14 season was disappointing and possibly the first time he's faced real adversity in his baseball career. His off-season response was exactly what fans would have hoped for - he worked his ass off trying to get better. He's clearly a better fielder and, at the plate, he's a tougher out. The power hasn't showed up yet but he's young and it is a different era.
A big reason why I'm optimistic
Developing consistency at this level is a predictor of success. This year, X has shown that on both sides of the ball. He's been able to bounce back from adversity easier than last season. I'm extremely optimistic on his ability to be an elite player not just an elite SS.
BoredViewer said:
Yes, but then again there's this:
6/5/2014
BABIP .382
K% 22.5%
6/5/2015
BABIP .335
K% 12.7%
He's gotten to a similar place so far this year by a far more sustainable-looking path.
He's got a big home/road split: .337/.382/.453 at Fenway vs. .256/.299/.344 elsewhere. Don't know if it means much of anything - he's hardly the first to prefer hitting at home - but it's interesting in that I don't really think of him as someone who uses the peculiarities of Fenway to his advantage, yet that's a pretty sizable split. Maybe just coincidence at this point?
Xander might also be more used to the hitter's backdrop at Fenway than he is at parks he doesn't play in as often, as well. Could make it a little easier to pick up the spin on the MLB-quality breaking pitches that he didn't see often in the minors.
mt8thsw9th said:
Xander has been incredibly sure handed this season and has definitively improved his lateral quickness. I'm honestly shocked with how much he's improved at the position.
foulkehampshire said:
He's young and athletic as hell. It shouldn't be all that surprising that he was able to improve and become an average-ish defender. He was projected to end up somewhere in the slightly above to slightly below average range back in 2013. That his bat is coming around is also great to see, but again, should not be surprising. That's not to say he won't struggle again going forward (he probably will), but he's making progress and is doing a great job, especially when you consider his age.
Just enjoy the ride guys. Kid is supremely talented. He may not live up to all the lofty expectations heaped upon him, but the next 4-5 years for Bogaerts will in all likelihood be a joy to watch as a Sox fan. One of the things that scouts raved about was his quiet confidence without egotism attached - I think we're seeing him finally display that in the majors. When he was progressing through the minors, he tended to have a month or two of time adjusting, then started to just pepper the ball until he moved on to the next stage.
It's no surprise the adjustment took longer in the majors - that is the biggest jump at all and his progression last year seemed to be stunted when he was asked to move off shortstop. I am hopeful we are starting to see that initial adjustment period end and can enjoy watching him begin to tag the ball all over the field for the rest of the summer.
It's no surprise the adjustment took longer in the majors - that is the biggest jump at all and his progression last year seemed to be stunted when he was asked to move off shortstop. I am hopeful we are starting to see that initial adjustment period end and can enjoy watching him begin to tag the ball all over the field for the rest of the summer.
Snodgrass'Muff said:
He was actually starting to show some signs of settling in defensively at short this time last year (after an obviously rocky start), just before the team signed Drew and pushed him to 3B. It can be debated whether Drew's arrival and his shift to 3B affected his hitting (his bat remained hot for the first week or so at 3B before he tanked), but I think it had to have rattled him on the defensive side. Or at the very least, had him thinking that the Sox didn't trust him at SS. I think the work he put in during the off-season and that the team spent big money both on a 3B and on an established SS that they moved to left field had to boost his confidence, and now it's showing.
Red(s)HawksFan said:
I guess this narrative is here to stay. Wasn't the problem that Middlebrooks wasn't any good? Wasn't Drew the option that was available for cash and was (ostensibly) a known quantity? I don't have any interest in defending that set of moves by the FO, but I have a hard time believing that that they lost faith in Xander, shoved him to third, and then rediscovered their faith in the off-season (early on, since Sandoval was signed on 11/25).
Let's momentarily give the FO the benefit of the doubt. Let's assume that they just wanted to fix 3B and chose to temporarily do so by bringing back someone they knew to cover a difficult defensive position and moving their highly-skilled, prized prospect (again, temporarily). They had seen him play some third base (granted it was not many innings). It's regarded as a less physically demanding position than SS, and thus would be within his ability. Importantly, it keeps him on the field and gets Middlebrooks onto the bench until they can find a new 3B. There are certainly other ways that they could have solved the problem they had, but let's assume this story, since it's basically what they said in the media. In this situation, do you think that no one spoke to Xander and explained exactly what the plan was? Especially if you believe that the psyche of a top athlete is so fragile that they could be shaken by being moved to a different position (or that adapting to that position is a distraction from other components of the game), don't you think that the team would be careful in their treatment of someone they have repeatedly stated they regard as a cornerstone of the team going forward? I know that people want to find an explanation for what they see based on the minimal information they have, but I can't buy this story of the psychological mistreatment of Bogaerts. It requires one to believe that the people running the Red Sox don't understand how to work with baseball players. The results in several recent seasons notwithstanding, I don't believe that. I do think that recent evidence (Bogaerts, Holt, Ramirez, Betts) suggests that the Sox don't think that adapting to a new position is that onerous a task.
Please re-read what you bolded in my post..."[H]ad him thinking that the Sox didn't trust him at SS". That doesn't say that the Red Sox lost faith in Bogaerts at SS. It says that maybe that was Bogaerts' perception of the move. I know the rationale behind signing Drew was Middlebrooks' struggles rather than Bogaerts. But it is by no means clear that Bogaerts was 100% on board with that line of thought. Middlebrooks went on the DL before Drew was signed, if I recall correctly. Brock Holt had been inserted at 3B in the meantime. Holt was doing fine in the role too.metaprosthesis said:
My point was only that players don't always take the global perspective when it comes to a roster move that results in a change in their own role. Drew signed and Bogaerts was pushed off his normal position to make room. It is certainly conceivable that he took it personally even if it was never intended to be a reflection on him at all.
metaprosthesis said:
Well-stated overall, and I don't disagree, but it may fall into a little bit of a rational actors trap. It's entirely possible Xander's mL 'quiet confidence' has had a little more fragility upon MLB exposure than they expected, and didn't get quite the outcome they hoped using the process you describe above. Shit, 21 ain't no different from 15 which ain't no different from 5. You can do it all right and they'll still hate the shit out of you.
Put another way: spoken like a fella who has never had to explain to a kid the 'big picture' in relation to their own wants and feelings
IIRC, there are even small anecdotes from this year about Boegarts needing consoling in the dugout. I understand shit like that tends to surface in support of narratives regardless, but who knows. It's not even a bad thing. Young uberprospect struggles for first time, experiences unexpected confidence issues! Not even LeoC could punch that into a new headline.Red(s)HawksFan said:
Maybe you should re-read the bolded of his post? Because it kinda addresses your point. If you responded to that instead of re-stating your point, it would be way cooler.
Iglesias is still ahead of him. Boegarts is tied for second in the AL with Brad Miller.mt8thsw9th said:
RIrooter09 said:
Miller, the guy who is now a super utility player, ought not to be on the AL SS list.
Rick Rowand has taken a closer look at Bogaerts' start and compared it to last season on www.sonsofsamhorn.com. I don't want to spoil the ending for you, but he addresses whether this season's success is sustainable after last season's early success proved not to be.
Brianish said:
lowest batted ball velocity of anyone in baseball.
bogaerts is super low on the list as well, but he's setting into 88-89 mph which is middle of the pack.
ivanvamp said:
Brianish said:
Key phrase is "qualified SS". Iglesias hasn't gotten quite enough PA to qualify. Minor nit to pick, but is probably the lone reason ivanvamp's list doesn't take Iglesias into account.
But not enough PAs to qualify.Brianish said:
edit: man, a lot of people jumped on this one in a 90-second window.
I mean, he basically did the same thing for us in 2013. Hit .330/.376/.409 in 234 PA's before being traded to the Tigers and hitting .259/.306/.348 the rest of the way.ivanvamp said:
semsox said:
Jose Iglesias by month this year: (Mar/Apr, May, June)
WRC+ : 173, 93, 66
BABIP : .410, .323, .320
BB% : 7.8%, 6.8%, 0.0%
ISO : .159. .015, .036
Looks like the same old Jose to me. High BABIP driven numbers at first, then a drastic slide into a no patience no power empty batting average guy. At least he's maintained a decent batting average so far this time. But he is pretty darn good on D. Still think the overall Bogaerts package is better already, and has potential to be worth much more if he can get the power going again. Once the power comes, the BB% will come up naturally.
Really good article about Bogaerts' adjustment at FG:
Xander Bogaerts and the Uneven Road to Success
Xander Bogaerts and the Uneven Road to Success
Bogaerts is now 8th in the majors in wOBA (.317) among qualified SSs and 3rd in the AL by a smidge to Semien and Miller. That's fine and I am far more bullish on him than I was at the end of last year.
But I want to note that there SS really sucks right now. In 2007 .317 would have placed 17th in the majors. in 2009 it would be tied for 13th. (wOBA is adjusted for league and home park.)
So maybe we are in a new era where hitting is tough to come by at premium defensive positions. But Carlos Correa just came up and is destroying the ball. In just 9 games he's accumulated more offensive value than Bogaerts. Francisco Lindor just made his debut as well. So maybe we were just in a cyclical lull in good-hitting SSs. If so, then when hitting at the position improves Bogaerts' line drops to average or below and he's not as valuable.
If he starts hitting with more power then he vaults into the top eschelon, and I think he can. But it's a little misleading to post his rank among SS right now, I would say.
But I want to note that there SS really sucks right now. In 2007 .317 would have placed 17th in the majors. in 2009 it would be tied for 13th. (wOBA is adjusted for league and home park.)
So maybe we are in a new era where hitting is tough to come by at premium defensive positions. But Carlos Correa just came up and is destroying the ball. In just 9 games he's accumulated more offensive value than Bogaerts. Francisco Lindor just made his debut as well. So maybe we were just in a cyclical lull in good-hitting SSs. If so, then when hitting at the position improves Bogaerts' line drops to average or below and he's not as valuable.
If he starts hitting with more power then he vaults into the top eschelon, and I think he can. But it's a little misleading to post his rank among SS right now, I would say.
Toe Nash said:
I really don’t see the value in comparing his wOBA from this year against those from years past like that. I think wRC+ is a better tool for comparing over eras because it takes into account the competition and league environment better than wOBA. The fact is that Bogaerts has a 99 wRC+ at this moment, meaning he has essentially been league average with the bat compared to everybody, while the SS position this year has averaged a wRC+ of 80, worse in the last 10 seasons. I think you are trying to simplify it by claiming that the SS position is weak overall right now, but by doing so you are neglecting the fact that offense is down at every position. Sure a couple of new young SS prospects might surpass him and raise the bar of SS offensive production closer to what it has been recently (~86 wRC+), but it’s not going to be enough to make Bogaerts significantly less valuable. Also, the league average wOBA hasn’t been above .316 since 2010. Times have changed. I understand that you’re trying to show how weak the position is right now, but that’s really the case all over the diamond.
You're right, my fault. I thought wOBA was adjusted to a league average year-to-year for some reason. I should have checked that.
It would be interesting to figure out what difference in value he would have if a few real superstars come into the position, but clearly I overstated it above.
It would be interesting to figure out what difference in value he would have if a few real superstars come into the position, but clearly I overstated it above.
I have made that mistake before as well. It’s tricky because wOBA is calculated based on environment – the relative value of a walk, a hit, a strike out, all fluctuate based on how often they occur in a given season. So while very useful to compare against other same season numbers, it does a poor job comparing different areas.
I am also curious what the effect of a few superstars joining that position would be. I can’t say for sure how WAR accounts for position. I think that the offensive component is calculated regardless of position and that all of the positional benefit or penalty is accounted for in the defensive component. So if that’s the case we’d only see the WAR calculations effected like that if they were defensive superstars, but again I am not sure that’s the way it’s accounted for.
I am also curious what the effect of a few superstars joining that position would be. I can’t say for sure how WAR accounts for position. I think that the offensive component is calculated regardless of position and that all of the positional benefit or penalty is accounted for in the defensive component. So if that’s the case we’d only see the WAR calculations effected like that if they were defensive superstars, but again I am not sure that’s the way it’s accounted for.