Even in the BB era, there were guys who, in NFL terms, had long careers in NE before they were let go.
Blake Snell traded to SD
- Thread starter RedOctober3829
- Start date
I'll run the numbers later, but of your small market teams listed, I only see Cleveland as being as close to successful as the Rays and I think they have done similar things with their players in trading them a tad early to get a better return.
(with the caveat that KC's WS win should elevate them some).
Kansas City really should be the model; another very small market team that doesn't like to spend money; but they wisely built up their farm system to construct a cost-controlled team that had a very consistent championship window, winning one World Series and coming extremely close to winning another. During their World Series year, they wisely recognized that they had a chance to go all in and made some win now trades (most notably acquiring Johnny Cueto from the Reds for prospect Brandon Finnegan) to get them over the hump. When the window began to close, they did trade off some of their key players from those teams to launch a rebuilding process, but that is pretty standard baseball. The Royals also did pay real money to retain a few cornerstone players from the World Series years (Alex Gordon and Salvador Perez) which helped buy them goodwill from the fans during the lean last few years.
Again, I'm not arguing that the Rays model is incorrect, it has obviously been very successful for them. I just think that other teams have been in similar situations to Tampa financially and have been able to be successful while also managing to retain some of their star players, which helps those teams remain relevant in the eyes of some fans. I also hate giving wealthy owners a pass on not being willing to spend any money.
The Royals have made the playoffs precisely twice since 1985. They had a great two year run and pretty much immediately went back to being terrible, they are one of the worst franchises in MLB over the past three decades.
Edit: And even that two year run, the first year they were a 89 win wild card team who were losing the wild card game 7-3 after 7 innings, so very close to one and done.
That window was really only two years (89 wins, a wild card, and an improbable playoff run ion 2014, and then 95 wins a division title and a WS title in 2015). VORP notes above that the Rays are third in the AL in the last decade; from 2010-2020 the Royals have a .467 win percentage (76 wins in 162 games). Zooming out (cherry-pickingly), the team has been .500 or better 5 times since 1995.
The 2015 team was unconventional and a lot of fun, so they get credit for putting that together, but it seems like stretch to take that franchise to be any sort of model.
Edit: took too long doing that math!
Both of those teams overperformed their pythag by like 5 wins. The Rays this year were a great team that ran into a historically amazing Dodgers team. The 2018 Rays were unfortunate enough to be in the same division as one of the most dominant teams of the 21st century. Their roster for next season is a championship caliber team and they have a farm system that should adequately restock their ML roster for at least the next two seasons. The playoffs are a crapshoot and the Rays have been unlucky but, going back to their first WS appearance in 2008, theyve made the playoffs 6 times, missing out in two years they had 90 wins. Cleveland has had a good run too but they are about to trade away Lindor after trading Bauer, Kluber, and Clevinger in recent years. This is just the reality for teams that live in small market territory. IDK why it gets brought up every time one of these teams makes a trade, it isn't like they are not "trying to win." This IS how they win.
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Since the 2010 season-
Wins-
TB- 900.
Cleve- 890.
Brewers- 859
Minn- 801
KC- 784
Division Titles- (I think TB is clearly in the toughest division these years, too)
TB- 2
Cleve- 3
Brewers- 2
Minn- 3
KC- 1
Playoff Appearances-
TB- 4
Cleveland- 4
Brewers- 2
Minn- 4
KC- 2
Series wins (no WC games are figured in)
TB-2 (I was shocked at how many 1st rd/WC games they have lost)
Cleveland- 2
Brewers- 2
Minn- 0
KC-5
WS Appearances-
TB, Cleveland with 1 each, no victories. KC 2 with 1 win. Brewers /Minn 0/0
All in all, TB and Cleveland operate in similar manner and have had similar success. Being in the AL East has hurt TB and they have had bad playoff luck
Wins-
TB- 900.
Cleve- 890.
Brewers- 859
Minn- 801
KC- 784
Division Titles- (I think TB is clearly in the toughest division these years, too)
TB- 2
Cleve- 3
Brewers- 2
Minn- 3
KC- 1
Playoff Appearances-
TB- 4
Cleveland- 4
Brewers- 2
Minn- 4
KC- 2
Series wins (no WC games are figured in)
TB-2 (I was shocked at how many 1st rd/WC games they have lost)
Cleveland- 2
Brewers- 2
Minn- 0
KC-5
WS Appearances-
TB, Cleveland with 1 each, no victories. KC 2 with 1 win. Brewers /Minn 0/0
All in all, TB and Cleveland operate in similar manner and have had similar success. Being in the AL East has hurt TB and they have had bad playoff luck
Personally, I don’t begrudge the Rays doing what they’re doing, but what I don’t like is that now the overwhelming majority of teams act like they are also the Rays and therefore don't really want to spend, even when they’ve got a chance to win something, even they could probably afford to, even if it makes sense for them from a baseball standpoint. Who, besides San Diego, Toronto, the White Sox, and the Mets could be described as "going for it in 2021" as of right now? (I guess the Braves, Yankees, and Dodgers, but even those teams aren't flexing their financial muscles to the extent they could be.)
Because it almost never does, no matter the situation. This is what I have been talking about in recent years in the "Baseball Is Broken" thread, it simply doesn't make sense to pay veterans in most cases under the current CBA. For one thing, the more guys on your 40 man roster who have options, the more roster flexibility you have (TB are masters at this, their entire postseason bullpen last year still had options except for Loup).
Which teams right now really have a chance at a playoff spot that are not spending money? The Astros could probably take on more payroll and could use some pitching help, but I suppose you have to run out Whitley eventually to see what ya have and they have spent in previous years to get over that hump. SF is a loaded market and they could probably afford more than 135 mil but that roster is terrible and needs more help than any of the big ticket FAs will give them. The luxury tax pulls the big market players from the higher end of the FA market every few years and then forces these lower income teams to compete against each other. Would the Red Sox and Yankees be all in on Bauer, Realmuto, Springer, and the like if they had no tax penalties? Probably, no? Is that "good for baseball"?
There is generally parity with WS Champs around the league, I am not sure if any of this is really "bad for the game". This decade has seen the Astros and Nationals win their first WS titles, the Cubs win their first in 100 years, the Royals and Dodgers win their first in over 20 years, and then this weird Giants run of 3 titles in a decade after they hadn't won one since 1954, and never in SF.
edit: 3 Wild Card teams have won this decade. That has to play into these teams thinking when they are deciding on if they should spend big money on luxury free agents. Get to the playoffs and then cross your fingers.
There is generally parity with WS Champs around the league, I am not sure if any of this is really "bad for the game". This decade has seen the Astros and Nationals win their first WS titles, the Cubs win their first in 100 years, the Royals and Dodgers win their first in over 20 years, and then this weird Giants run of 3 titles in a decade after they hadn't won one since 1954, and never in SF.
edit: 3 Wild Card teams have won this decade. That has to play into these teams thinking when they are deciding on if they should spend big money on luxury free agents. Get to the playoffs and then cross your fingers.
It's a trade that helps SD right now and it's a trade that may work out for the Rays.
I wish we were talking about the Sox like this.
I wish we were talking about the Sox like this.
Padres not done. "Deep into talks" for Yu Darvish.
View: https://twitter.com/dennistlin/status/1343616195149193218
View: https://twitter.com/dennistlin/status/1343616195149193218
Not to mention these teams basically double the Ray's payroll every year. The Rays float around $60m and essentially last in payroll every year. The teams listed above float around $110m. Theres small market, and then theres the Rays.
Those might be reported numbers, but most games are closer to 4-5K in attendance. Maybe double that when the Sox or Yanks are in town. That's pre-COVID too!
I've assumed most of the baseballl fans who live in Florida are fans of other teams who move there to avoid having to deal with winter weather
Padres are making moves but it is interesting that they may empty their farm for Darvish and Snell, both of whom are not sure bets next year. I wonder how team analytics are weighting 2020 vs 2019 stats.
I had a lengthy reply to this but it looks like the Cubs might be about to make the point for me.
Darvish is owed $59m over the next three years, which are his age 34-36 seasons, and is injury-prone. I can't imagine the Padres are giving up more than middling prospects for him.
It's easier to do when it results in championships. What the Rays do has been very good for 12 years now but has not yet resulted in a championship.
Deal is gonna get done tonight for Darvish.
View: https://twitter.com/BNightengale/status/1343725175007662080?s=20
View: https://twitter.com/BNightengale/status/1343725175007662080?s=20
View: https://twitter.com/ByMcCullough/status/1344029081604665346
'Blake Snell said he is looking forward to going a third time through the batting order with San Diego. He wants to try to finish games so he can "really challenge myself, and see how good I really am," he said.'
'Blake Snell said he is looking forward to going a third time through the batting order with San Diego. He wants to try to finish games so he can "really challenge myself, and see how good I really am," he said.'
Unless you’re saying this is an approach that only began in 2011, you can slice these numbers other ways. For example, the 2000s were a pretty successful run for the Twins. From 2001-2010, they won 888 games and 6 division titles. This easily bested Cleveland’s 795 wins and two division titles. The Twins only won one playoff series, in part because MLB kept forcing them to play the MFYs in the ALDS. And they didn’t keep all their good/great players, but they did manage to extend some of their best (Mauer, Nathan, Morneau). They eventually dealt Santana, and it was probably that botched deal, plus the mistaken Garza-for-Young swap and Liriano’s and Morneau’s injuries, that doomed them to sub-mediocrity for a half dozen years post moving into Target Field.
All of which probably does suggest that Tampa has been consistently successful in churning their more expensive players into less expensive but still good ones precisely because they pick the right players far more often than not. Of course, that takes great skill and a little luck...