I think that all makes sense (and may be the source for the report) as pro-rating would seem to give you the rough estimate of what is in the report. The problem is that $30M is state income tax withholding; not NY state income tax withholding so I'm not sure it really tells us anything as to what is going to New York and what is going elsewhere. They almost certainly withhold on a multi-state basis as athletes and their teams are high profile and high audit risk and the Bills would be subject to pretty high penalties to not do so. If $20M or so is their total state withholdings, its almost impossible to believe that 95%+ is going to New York.Somewhat corroborative, I found this Buffalo News article from 2019 that reported on some financial impacts of pro sports in Buffalo. Of note, it reported that in 2019, PSE (which I assume is the Pelugas' corporate holding company) paid $396.5M in salaries, which resulted in $30.2M in withholding for state income taxes. That number included payroll taxes for the Sabres, which had about 1/4 of the salaries ($121.4M; Bills salaries were $238.6M), and all operational salaries.
The report also noted that according to a survey done in 2019, Bills fans spent about $65.39 per person in game day spending. (The article does not say if this included out-of-town fans or visiting fans, which I assume would be a much higher per person payout.)
Also, I just want to make the point that a lot of the stadium studies I've seen assume that if fans didn't spend money on the Bills, most of that discretionary spending would be spent in other local entertainment like movies or dinner or bars. I'm not so sure that's true and would be interested to see if anyone has studied that. Pro sports are big ticket items and it seems to me that people who don't spend that money on sporting-related purchases are going to spend the money on other big-ticket entertainment items, particularly out-of-state vacations or what-not, and thus that money wouldn't necessarily get funneled into the local economy. But that's just a WAG.
If youre asking me: Id be really confident they get $10M between Bills and visitors; pretty confident in the $12-$15M range; and close to zero confidence by the time you get to $20M, but its an incredibly detailed area thats a huge portion of state's benefit and they seem to have done very little work to determine whether the $20M a year is a real number.