Bill vs. Don vs. Time

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Brady retiring made me realize that there's one more big NFL record hanging out there for a long time tenured Patriot.

1. Don Shula – 347
2. Bill Belichick – 329
3. George Halas – 324
4. Tom Landry – 270
5. Andy Reid – 267
6. Curly Lambeau – 229
7. Paul Brown – 222
8. Chuck Noll – 209
9. Marty Schottenheimer – 205
10. Dan Reeves – 201

Belichick is currently 18 wins behind Don Shula's all time record. Bill turns 71 in April (for reference Andy Reid turns 65 this spring. Mike Tomlin is 50 and has 163 wins). With two more seasons there's probably about a 50% chance that Bill catches him. With three more I'd set that at about 80%.

I think Bill REALLY wants this record as a historian of the game.
 

InstaFace

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I absolutely love how much Belichick still loves coaching football. It gives hope to the rest of us that we can find work that doesn't feel like work. He's clearly going to coach until some major health or neurological thing gets in his way, and if that means I have to slog through a couple 6-11 seasons because GM Belichick isn't nearly as sharp as Coach Belichick anymore, then so be it.
 

Red Averages

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He's also coaching with his two sons. He'll literally see his children more through work than in retirement.
 

Curt S Loew

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I know BB had the Marv Levy quote about not wanting to coach when he's older but the clips of him working on technique with a player at the Shrine Bowl a few days ago shows he still has the drive to teach/coach.

View: https://twitter.com/mikekadlick/status/1619809689545625600?s=20&t=aJmbF5itYRqRWVuweuNsYQ
He did backtrack on that statement.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2022/09/09/sports/bill-belichick-once-said-he-wouldnt-coach-into-his-70s-how-does-he-feel-now-that-hes-70/?event=event25

“I wish I hadn’t said that,” Belichick said Thursday in a telephone interview from Florida. “I was probably thinking of what I would feel like. Now, there’s what I actually feel like, and those are two different things. That was not one of my better statements.”
 

koufax32

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If NE is a middling team the next two years, there’s a decent chance #348 happens against Miami. If that happened, it might make for the smuggest look on a human face from BB in history.
 

Jimbodandy

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He did backtrack on that statement.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2022/09/09/sports/bill-belichick-once-said-he-wouldnt-coach-into-his-70s-how-does-he-feel-now-that-hes-70/?event=event25

“I wish I hadn’t said that,” Belichick said Thursday in a telephone interview from Florida. “I was probably thinking of what I would feel like. Now, there’s what I actually feel like, and those are two different things. That was not one of my better statements.”
Arrogant bastard
 

Al Zarilla

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He did backtrack on that statement.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2022/09/09/sports/bill-belichick-once-said-he-wouldnt-coach-into-his-70s-how-does-he-feel-now-that-hes-70/?event=event25

“I wish I hadn’t said that,” Belichick said Thursday in a telephone interview from Florida. “I was probably thinking of what I would feel like. Now, there’s what I actually feel like, and those are two different things. That was not one of my better statements.”
The 70s are the new 60s. Keep going Bill, as long as you're enjoying it.
 

wilked

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If NE is a middling team the next two years, there’s a decent chance #348 happens against Miami. If that happened, it might make for the smuggest look on a human face from BB in history.
I don't follow. Why does the team need to be middling? They play Miami at least twice a season.
 

Spelunker

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Brady retiring made me realize that there's one more big NFL record hanging out there for a long time tenured Patriot.

1. Don Shula – 347
2. Bill Belichick – 329
3. George Halas – 324
4. Tom Landry – 270
5. Andy Reid – 267
6. Curly Lambeau – 229
7. Paul Brown – 222
8. Chuck Noll – 209
9. Marty Schottenheimer – 205
10. Dan Reeves – 201

Belichick is currently 18 wins behind Don Shula's all time record. Bill turns 71 in April (for reference Andy Reid turns 65 this spring. Mike Tomlin is 50 and has 163 wins). With two more seasons there's probably about a 50% chance that Bill catches him. With three more I'd set that at about 80%.

I think Bill REALLY wants this record as a historian of the game.
Huh, I hadn't realized that Reid was a threat for the record. Six years younger, and only 62 games behind Bill with a really good team and one extra game per season?
 

88 MVP

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Huh, I hadn't realized that Reid was a threat for the record. Six years younger, and only 62 games behind Bill with a really good team and one extra game per season?
I was just typing out a similar post... looking at the list, it seems like Reid would stand a pretty good chance of passing Belichick if (1) Belichick actually retires after 2-3 more seasons and (2) Reid actually wants to coach into his 70's.

Say Belichick breaks the record after 2 more 10-win seasons (being optimistics) and retires with 349 wins, putting Reid 82 wins back of that point as it stands today. It doesn't seem like a stretch to assume that Reid could average at least 11-12 wins per year with Mahomes locked up long term in KC. At that sort of pace, Reid would need maybe 7-8 seasons to pass Shula and potentially BB (so to Reid's age 72-73 seasons).
 

Ale Xander

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Huh, I hadn't realized that Reid was a threat for the record. Six years younger, and only 62 games behind Bill with a really good team and one extra game per season?
6 years younger, but I would wager in worse cardio-vascular health than Bill.

But he has a chance to be #1 when all is said and done.
 

BaseballJones

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Reid: 24 years, 247-138-1 (.647), 1 SB title, 4 conference championships, 17 seasons with 10+ wins
Belichick: 28 years, 298-152 (.662), 6 SB titles, 9 conference championships, 20 seasons with 10+ wins


Also, Reid's best seasons have all come with great QBs: Mahomes, obviously, but also McNabb, who while not a HOFer, was a 6x pro bowler. BB's best seasons, obviously, came with Brady.
 

Jimbodandy

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Reid: 24 years, 247-138-1 (.647), 1 SB title, 4 conference championships, 17 seasons with 10+ wins
Belichick: 28 years, 298-152 (.662), 6 SB titles, 9 conference championships, 20 seasons with 10+ wins


Also, Reid's best seasons have all come with great QBs: Mahomes, obviously, but also McNabb, who while not a HOFer, was a 6x pro bowler. BB's best seasons, obviously, came with Brady.
Reid is lurking in the shadows there with some pretty impressive numbers. Not Bill but who is. Still a pretty remarkable resume.
 

ManicCompression

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Also, Reid's best seasons have all come with great QBs: Mahomes, obviously, but also McNabb, who while not a HOFer, was a 6x pro bowler. BB's best seasons, obviously, came with Brady.
I don't want to blow up Reid too much, but he went 43-27 with Alex Smith as his quarterback from 2013-2017. He is exceptionally skilled at getting the most out of that position, which is probably the most important thing you can bring to the table as a coach in the modern NFL. We say McNabb was a pro bowler, but Alex Smith was a three-time pro bowler with Reid. For me, it's easier to separate his performance as a coach from his quarterbacks than it is to separate BB from Brady.
 

BaseballJones

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I don't want to blow up Reid too much, but he went 43-27 with Alex Smith as his quarterback from 2013-2017. He is exceptionally skilled at getting the most out of that position, which is probably the most important thing you can bring to the table as a coach in the modern NFL. We say McNabb was a pro bowler, but Alex Smith was a three-time pro bowler with Reid. For me, it's easier to separate his performance as a coach from his quarterbacks than it is to separate BB from Brady.
Yes true. I mean, there's no questions whatsoever that Reid has been an all-time great NFL head coach. No matter who he's had at QB.
 

Scoops Bolling

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I don't want to blow up Reid too much, but he went 43-27 with Alex Smith as his quarterback from 2013-2017. He is exceptionally skilled at getting the most out of that position, which is probably the most important thing you can bring to the table as a coach in the modern NFL. We say McNabb was a pro bowler, but Alex Smith was a three-time pro bowler with Reid. For me, it's easier to separate his performance as a coach from his quarterbacks than it is to separate BB from Brady.
I don't understand this at all. Reid's specialty is offense, particularly passing offense. McNabb was a borderline HoF level talent, Mahomes is a clear HoF level talent, and even Smith was a #1 overall pick who had already developed into the player he was with the Chiefs by his final two seasons with the 49ers...that development was not a Reid thing, it already happened by the time Smith arrived in Kansas City. I'm not sure Reid got more out of any of those guys than any other high end offensive talent coach (Payton, McVay, etc) would have gotten. Contrast that to BB and his defensive background, and the critical role that defense has played in the success of the team and in championships it won, and it's much easier for me to separate Belichick's performance from his QBs than it is Reid's. I think you've got this one backwards.
 

terrynever

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He did backtrack on that statement.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2022/09/09/sports/bill-belichick-once-said-he-wouldnt-coach-into-his-70s-how-does-he-feel-now-that-hes-70/?event=event25

“I wish I hadn’t said that,” Belichick said Thursday in a telephone interview from Florida. “I was probably thinking of what I would feel like. Now, there’s what I actually feel like, and those are two different things. That was not one of my better statements.”
Common mistake. People in their 50s thinks 70 is ancient but then you get there fairly intact. He’s pretty good at avoiding contact on the sidelines when something happens near him. Bill isn’t through setting goals for this franchise, or himself.
 

8slim

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Common mistake. People in their 50s thinks 70 is ancient but then you get there fairly intact. He’s pretty good at avoiding contact on the sidelines when something happens near him. Bill isn’t through setting goals for this franchise, or himself.
Just from seeing people in my family age, they've largely been in good enough health and sharp mentally in their early-mid 70s. It's only as they've pushed 80 that I've really noticed them slowing down.

Which is to say that I think Bill's got a few more years in him, at least, if he wants to keep going. I'd be surprised if he didn't hang in long enough to catch Shula and put a few wins distance on him as well.
 

PC Drunken Friar

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I don't want to blow up Reid too much, but he went 43-27 with Alex Smith as his quarterback from 2013-2017. He is exceptionally skilled at getting the most out of that position, which is probably the most important thing you can bring to the table as a coach in the modern NFL. We say McNabb was a pro bowler, but Alex Smith was a three-time pro bowler with Reid. For me, it's easier to separate his performance as a coach from his quarterbacks than it is to separate BB from Brady.
I am sick and have way too much on my hands...Hardware counts a ton, but Andy Reid has been almost every bit of a regular season coach than BB has, IMO.

13 years worth of games with McNabb/Mahomes- 148-61-1 (.740 or about 12 wins/year). Add in Smith's 5 years and it drops to 198-87-1 (.692 or about 11 wins/year).

With QBs other than McNabb/Mahomes (caveat is end of the year games, the QB of record is who starts, etc).- 91-74 (.551 or 9 wins). Without Smith, 35-48 (.421 or about 7 wins).

BB- 18 years with Brady- 219-63 (.776 or about 12.4 wins/year).

Without Brady- 80-88 (.476 or 7.6 wins/year).

Give Reid 5 more years of the top-tier QB talent (not unreasonable) that BB had and his record may be just as good. He has also (maybe due to coaching) had Smith as a long-time QB who was quite good. If Mac can be the Smith equivalent the next few years, Reid probably doesn't have a chance at catching BB.

Edit: Thanks rodderick.
 
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nattysez

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I think Reid's biggest impediment will be his health. He does not strike me as a guy who takes great care of himself.
 

rodderick

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I am sick and have way too much on my hands...Hardware counts a ton, but Andy Reid has been almost every bit of a regular season coach than BB has, IMO.

13 years worth of games with McNabb/Mahomes- 148-61-1 (.740 or about 12 wins/year). Add in Smith's 5 years and it drops to 198-87-1 (.692 or about 11 wins/year).

With QBs other than McNabb/Mahomes (caveat is end of the year games, the QB of record is who starts, etc).- 91-74 (.551 or 9 wins). Without Smith, 35-48 (.421 or about 7 wins).

BB- 18 years with Brady- 219-63 (.776 or about 12.4 wins/year).

Without Brady- 80-68 (.540 or 8.6 wins/year).

Give Reid 5 more years of the top-tier QB talent (not unreasonable) that BB had and his record may be just as good. He has also (maybe due to coaching) had Smith as a long-time QB who was quite good. If Mac can be the Smith equivalent the next few years, Reid probably doesn't have a chance at catching BB.
Is that correct? He went 36-44 in Cleveland and without Brady in NE he went 5-11 in 2000, 0-2 in 2001, 11-5 in 2008, 3-1 in 2016, 7-9 in 2020, 10-7 in 2021 and 8-9 in 2022. So 44-44, which gets his total W/L to 80-88 (.476).
 

Justthetippett

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Head coaches are getting younger and younger. BB's record won't last very long.
I don’t know. They also get paid a lot better and have more media opportunities waiting for them if they leave. And most ownership groups have a very quick trigger. It would take an exceptional case, like Tomlin, to really threaten the record.
 

PC Drunken Friar

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Is that correct? He went 36-44 in Cleveland and without Brady in NE he went 5-11 in 2000, 0-2 in 2001, 11-5 in 2008, 3-1 in 2016, 7-9 in 2020, 10-7 in 2021 and 8-9 in 2022. So 44-44, which gets his total W/L to 80-88 (.476).
Yes, you are right, I missed a couple 10 loss seasons and didn't count the *10 and missed his first season.
 

tims4wins

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I don’t know. They also get paid a lot better and have more media opportunities waiting for them if they leave. And most ownership groups have a very quick trigger. It would take an exceptional case, like Tomlin, to really threaten the record.
Right, look at McVay. If they start as a HC at age 35, are they really going to last to 65-70?

I think Tomlin will hang it up by 55, 60 at the oldest.
 

koufax32

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I don't follow. Why does the team need to be middling? They play Miami at least twice a season.
MIA typically happens near the beginning then the end of each season. A ten win season next year followed by an 8-9 win season after that would mean breaking the record either the last game of 2024 or the first game of 2025. There’s a decent chance those could be MIA games.
 

ManicCompression

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I don't understand this at all. Reid's specialty is offense, particularly passing offense. McNabb was a borderline HoF level talent, Mahomes is a clear HoF level talent, and even Smith was a #1 overall pick who had already developed into the player he was with the Chiefs by his final two seasons with the 49ers...that development was not a Reid thing, it already happened by the time Smith arrived in Kansas City. I'm not sure Reid got more out of any of those guys than any other high end offensive talent coach (Payton, McVay, etc) would have gotten. Contrast that to BB and his defensive background, and the critical role that defense has played in the success of the team and in championships it won, and it's much easier for me to separate Belichick's performance from his QBs than it is Reid's. I think you've got this one backwards.
Smith was a bust until Harbaugh came along, then Kaepernick won the job from him. It's not like he was ever viewed as an elite talent after his draft. He's most notable for being someone you're looking forward to replacing, but in KC, Reid had him passing more than ever, and he was good at it, too. And maybe I'm skeptical because of his time with Washington and the shortness of his peak, but I think maybe Reid had more to do with McNabb being a borderline HoF than McNabb did (because he was also able to take a guy like Smith and turn him into a pro bowl QB).

I just think Reid is kind of underrated. Look at the KC WR corps this year - washed Juju, Mecole, MVS, Skyy moore... if this was Brady during the Gronk years, we'd be complaining about him not having enough weapons, how defenses can double team gronk, etc. But the Chiefs are the number 1 offense this year by scoring, yards, whatever you want to pick. Yeah, Mahomes is absolutely brilliant, but also Reid is scheming these players open and keeping defenses on their toes with lesser skill position talent outside of Kelce, as he always has. Give him Freddie Mitchell and James Thrash, and he'll still find a way to an above average offense.

I don't want to make it seem like I'm putting down Bill to prop up Reid, because Bill is obviously brilliant, too, and has reached success that literally no other coach in the NFL has, and historically he is a better overall coach. I think the best way to put it is that in 2023, when we know offense is more stable year to year than defense, I'd kind of rather have Reid leading my team because I think he can field a good offense without tying up a crazy amount of resources. Someone like Mahomes takes his concepts to elite places, but I'd have way more confidence he'd know how to get something out of Mac going forward and that's pretty much the only thing that matters in the modern NFL.
 

Silverdude2167

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I don't want to make it seem like I'm putting down Bill to prop up Reid, because Bill is obviously brilliant, too, and has reached success that literally no other coach in the NFL has, and historically he is a better overall coach. I think the best way to put it is that in 2023, when we know offense is more stable year to year than defense, I'd kind of rather have Reid leading my team because I think he can field a good offense without tying up a crazy amount of resources. Someone like Mahomes takes his concepts to elite places, but I'd have way more confidence he'd know how to get something out of Mac going forward and that's pretty much the only thing that matters in the modern NFL.
This is a quality post and yet so wrong.

There is no world I would want Reid over BB. Give BB Mahomes and he had more than 1 SB already probably at least 3. He definitely does not lose to the Pats in 18 or the Bengals last year. Reid has only won when he has the most talented team, and even then he has lost more than he has won. He is a great coach but not even close to BB.
 

BaseballJones

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This is a quality post and yet so wrong.

There is no world I would want Reid over BB. Give BB Mahomes and he had more than 1 SB already probably at least 3. He definitely does not lose to the Pats in 18 or the Bengals last year. Reid has only won when he has the most talented team, and even then he has lost more than he has won. He is a great coach but not even close to BB.
Bill Belichick has had Tom Brady in the playoffs, and has lost to:

Jake Plummer
the corpse of Peyton Manning (2015)
Eli Manning twice
Joe Flacco
Nick Foles
Mark Sanchez and the frigging JETS
Ryan Tannehill

There's no way you can say with certainty that "he definitely does not lose to the Pats in 18 or the Bengals last year".
 

ManicCompression

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This is a quality post and yet so wrong.

There is no world I would want Reid over BB. Give BB Mahomes and he had more than 1 SB already probably at least 3. He definitely does not lose to the Pats in 18 or the Bengals last year. Reid has only won when he has the most talented team, and even then he has lost more than he has won. He is a great coach but not even close to BB.
So let's look at it the other way. If Reid had Brady for 20 years, how many Super Bowls does he win? If instead of having a QB who was puking himself during a Super Bowl winning drive, what if he had the most stone cold QB of all time?

If BB had McNabb, Vick, Smith, and Mahomes, how many Super Bowls does he win?
 

SMU_Sox

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Looking at the adjustments Reid made to his offense this year while losing Hill and still finishing #1 in offensive points per drive, offensive yards per drive, and DVOA is impressive and outstanding. He started going heavy 12, using a lot more 13, and using his RBs more. He ran different concepts maximizing his personnel as well as having unique game plans to take advantage of the weekly defense. Sound familiar? He used to have time management issues but those are past him. I don’t think I would put Reid on the same tier for past performance as Belichick but Reid is just a hair below him and if you had Reid as the better guy now I wouldn’t argue with you. Reid is 5th all time for regular season wins and 2nd all time for playoff wins. He is 5 spots below Belichick for regular season winning percentage. Reid’s a hell of a coach.

Well said @ManicCompression. Fully agree. Ok well not fully as I’m not sure I’d want Reid now over BB.
 
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Salva135

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6 years younger, but I would wager in worse cardio-vascular health than Bill.

But he has a chance to be #1 when all is said and done.
People have been worried about Andy Reid's health for what, decades now? Obviously the risks increase as time goes on, but he's never so much as hinted at needing a break, which is pretty remarkable. I think Mahomes has been a bit of a fountain of youth for him, and he wants to be there for as much of the party as he can. He just seems like a guy who you're going to have to drag away from coaching. His longevity is even more remarkable when you consider that BB gets to go to work with his sons every day and be motivated to work with them and watch them grow as coaches, while Reid's children created nightmarish situations that gave him every reason to walk away early.
 

Silverdude2167

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So let's look at it the other way. If Reid had Brady for 20 years, how many Super Bowls does he win? If instead of having a QB who was puking himself during a Super Bowl winning drive, what if he had the most stone cold QB of all time?

If BB had McNabb, Vick, Smith, and Mahomes, how many Super Bowls does he win?
Since 5 of the 6 Superbowls BB won had elite defenses I am pretty confident that Reid would have won alot less with Brady.

And you just listed 3 HOF caliber QBs and guy that doesn't turn the ball over much. I think BB could have made those QBs work.
 

Silverdude2167

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Is it the one playoff win in 10 years without Tommy that is making you so confident.
Which HOF level QBs did he have in that period? And sorry 2000 level Drew does was not one.

But actually, your opinion on this will be interesting. If you could have one coach today, Reid or BB, who would you choose?

Give them the 2022 Jets roster and who wins more in your mind?
 

luckiestman

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Which HOF level QBs did he have in that period? And sorry 2000 level Drew does was not one.

But actually, your opinion on this will be interesting. If you could have one coach today, Reid or BB, who would you choose?

Give them the 2022 Jets roster and who wins more in your mind?
Reid because the problem is on offense. I think this is a bad game because I’m probably taking BB straight up if you give me a team behind the veil of uncertainty but for my squad, in particular, in 2022? Reid.
 

Salva135

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Since 5 of the 6 Superbowls BB won had elite defenses I am pretty confident that Reid would have won alot less with Brady.

And you just listed 3 HOF caliber QBs and guy that doesn't turn the ball over much. I think BB could have made those QBs work.
I hate these conversations because there is way too much homerism. Reid never had the GOAT, and we don't know what kind of defensive staff he would have put together. He's had a mixed bag of defensive staffs over his coaching career. And BB hasn't proven a damn thing in terms of making anything other than Brady work. There's no reason to suggest he's winning anything more than Reid did with his quarterbacks.

We know that Reid has made Super Bowls with multiple QBs. BB hasn't. You can't twist history and hypotheticals to make it otherwise.
 

Silverdude2167

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I hate these conversations because there is way too much homerism. Reid never had the GOAT, and we don't know what kind of defensive staff he would have put together. He's had a mixed bag of defensive staffs over his coaching career. And BB hasn't proven a damn thing in terms of making anything other than Brady work. There's no reason to suggest he's winning anything more than Reid did with his quarterbacks.

We know that Reid has made Super Bowls with multiple QBs. BB hasn't. You can't twist history and hypotheticals to make it otherwise.
Reid made one Superbowl in what 18 years as a head coach prior to having Mahomes. Seeing as there are 32 teams in the league that is actually right around what you would expect if everything was random.

Also BB has run the best offenses the league has ever seen revolutionizing the game. So giving Andy a pass on defense doesn't seem fair when comparing the two.
 

Salva135

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Reid made one Superbowl in what 18 years as a head coach prior to having Mahomes. Seeing as there are 32 teams in the league that is actually right around what you would expect if everything was random.

Also BB has run the best offenses the league has ever seen revolutionizing the game. So giving Andy a pass on defense doesn't seem fair when comparing the two.
This is stupid, and you know it. Reid has taken multiple QBs to the Super Bowl. It's a fact. BB has taken one. I don't hold it against him because he had Brady for most of his career, but outside of Brady, he hasn't had the same success. It's just a fact.

Reid deserves credit for this, it's a tremendous accomplishment for an NFL HC and BB simply hasn't done it.
 

ManicCompression

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Since 5 of the 6 Superbowls BB won had elite defenses I am pretty confident that Reid would have won alot less with Brady.

And you just listed 3 HOF caliber QBs and guy that doesn't turn the ball over much. I think BB could have made those QBs work.
I'm not as confident as you that Reid wouldn't also have an elite defense because... more often than not, his teams have also had elite defenses. And they're typically able to do that because Reid doesn't need a ton of resources to make a good offense - even these Chiefs teams, outside of one year, have had an average or above defense. It's not like Reid goes somewhere and the team becomes the Manning era Colts.

I think you need to better calibrate what a Hall of Fame level QB is if you have McNabb and Vick in there. No, they're not. Not even close. You might as well put Kirk Cousins in the Hall of Fame if you think those guys are deserving. Also, Mac Jones is a guy who doesn't turn the ball over that much - do you think he has the same kind of season playing for Reid instead of BB? Regardless of weapons?

I'm not saying Andy Reid is absolutely a better coach. I'm not saying anything close to that. I believe it may be closer than we think, particularly in the current environment where offense is more important than defense.
 

rodderick

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This is stupid, and you know it. Reid has taken multiple QBs to the Super Bowl. It's a fact. BB has taken one. I don't hold it against him because he had Brady for most of his career, but outside of Brady, he hasn't had the same success. It's just a fact.

Reid deserves credit for this, it's a tremendous accomplishment for an NFL HC and BB simply hasn't done it.
I saw someone point out last week that Bill has only coached 6 games in NE without a Pro Bowl QB starting (2 by Hoyer, 2 by Brissett and 2 by Zappe). Of course, 2021 Mac, 2008 Cassel, 2020 Cam and 2016 Garoppolo aren't what you'd call "Pro Bowl QBs", but it's just funny how much you can spin reality.