Beyond The Bubble - Official 2021-22 NBA Betting Thread

[HomeRunBaker]

Expecting Embiid to play by news I’m reading. Attacking this with one prop that looks to have value.

* Under Maxey Points (20.5 & 19.5 out there)

He’s going from 2/3 option to an afterthought with Embiid returning. Also noticed how badly Harden froze him out of the offense last game so there shouldn’t be many opportunities in an advancing series with fewer possessions. Like this one a lot.

 

[ElUno20]

Maxey off to a blazing start

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Maxey off to a blazing start

Goose egg at the half and invisible in the offense. I think I’m in love with the prop market.

 

[ElUno20]

Goose egg at the half and invisible in the offense. I think I’m in love with the prop market.

And a couple arguments to boot. Great pick.

 

[Green (Tongued) Monster]

Goose egg at the half and invisible in the offense. I think I’m in love with the prop market.

14 points in the 4th to cover by a half a point. Horseshit.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

14 points in the 4th to cover by a half a point. Horseshit.

Another one for the ages. Truly Incredible

 

[Mloaf71]

I had Maxey U20.5 with you guys and Doncic TD two heartbreaking losses. Luckily redeemed myself with Brunson O17.5 to make tonight not so miserable.

A couple shots here and there from an awesome night.

 

[Mloaf71]

Double Post - Delete

 

[k-factory]

For the C’s/Bucks:
Gm 1 under: 217.5, actual: 190
Gm 2 under: 215.5, actual: 195
Gm 3 under: 212.5

Market still surprisingly bullish on offense considering 2 defensive teams, one without their second best scorer.
Plus an afternoon game, return of Smart, rested Horford and TL and Grant taking away any Theis minutes. Sure feels like another under.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

For the C’s/Bucks:
Gm 1 under: 217.5, actual: 190
Gm 2 under: 215.5, actual: 195
Gm 3 under: 212.5

Market still surprisingly bullish on offense considering 2 defensive teams, one without their second best scorer.
Plus an afternoon game, return of Smart, rested Horford and TL and Grant taking away any Theis minutes. Sure feels like another under.

To add on, once you get to Games 3/4 these games typically become a crawl fest with the defenses knowing where the offensive player is going before he does.

Look at both of last nights games which were 20-points below the closing number. I finally cashed the Suns/Mavs one as their 3-pt shooting had pushed each of the first two games Over. Suffice to say, I am playing both Unders today to some degree.

I also like Boston +2 with this series seemingly in full blown zig-zag adjustment mode. Today being a day game helps them as well.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Already beginning to click Phoenix -1.5 for tomorrow afternoon. The beauty (or the death of me) in this number is that not only can you max-click the -1.5 but also the -125 ML on most of my sites. You don’t find better set-ups than this.

 

[ElUno20]

I hate 1q bets but taking dubs over 28.5 today. Feels like the dubs can come out firing today and the wolves hit this number frequently

 

[HomeRunBaker]

I hate 1q bets but taking dubs over 28.5 today. Feels like the dubs can come out firing today and the wolves hit this number frequently

Grizzlies def play high-scoring 1Q’s. I don’t mind this at all.

 

[ElUno20]

Awful 8 minutes or so by dubs to start and end up 3 points short. Damn

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Things I played tonight in Heat/Sixers:

* Over 208 (1U)

* Harden Over 20.5 Points (.2U)

* Harden Over 29.5 Points at +800 (.05U)

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Attention Degens!!!

Played some Under 159 in Min/Wash WNBA. Early second played it again bigger at 162.5 the pace is fine for the Under and Natasha Cloud has hit 4 straight 3’s to falsely elevate this projection. Under!!

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Advantage of watching games and hunting out regression spots. Teams combined for 22 points over the final 9 min of the 1H following the adjustment during timeout. Live total is now 147 at the half.

 

[Green (Tongued) Monster]

Things I played tonight in Heat/Sixers:

* Over 208 (1U)

* Harden Over 20.5 Points (.2U)

* Harden Over 29.5 Points at +800 (.05U)

This is great work. Wish I would have followed this one. Stayed away still reeling from Maxey.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

This is great work. Wish I would have followed this one. Stayed away still reeling from Maxey.

Thanks. Yeah that Maxey prop ouch……I only found out last night that it went over on a 3-pointer on a possession that is typically dribbled out. Can’t make this up.

I was also staring at one of those “Money Making Props” my sites have that are typically awful value and wish I pulled trigger on Harden & Butler 30+ points at +2000. Can’t complain though.

I honestly have no idea what the officiating is going to look like tonight in Milwaukee. The Celtics were victimized by the most brutal timing of bad calls while the Bucks likely had the most bad calls go against them but not ones that were as impactful to the viewer as they weren’t nearly as obvious as the bad ones against Boston. Crazy times which is the norm for Giannis-officiated playoff games. Would hate to be a zebra for these…….

* I am playing Over 212 in this game…..normal size boring play (Working hard to rehab after the euphoric highs of the R1 mispriced Under plays). I expect the Bucks offense to be the beneficiary of Giannis and Horst publicly calling out the officials for swallowing their whistles and expect tons of FT’s. So while you typically want the Under in an ugly game this is a little different when their are trips to the line every 16 seconds combined with a relatively low 212 I think we grind out an Over here. Keep in mind last game was an afternoon affair so a return to night game should also help with shooting as we saw in Sun nights Warriors/Grizz game…….I will expect a better shooting night out of Tatum and may dip into a prop or two on him. Maybe Tatum Over 28.5 (or a correlated Under 25.5 for Jaylen)……if you can same-game parlay these two that may be interesting depending on price.

 

[k-factory]

Thanks. Yeah that Maxey prop ouch……I only found out last night that it went over on a 3-pointer on a possession that is typically dribbled out. Can’t make this up.

I was also staring at one of those “Money Making Props” my sites have that are typically awful value and wish I pulled trigger on Harden & Butler 30+ points at +2000. Can’t complain though.

I honestly have no idea what the officiating is going to look like tonight in Milwaukee. The Celtics were victimized by the most brutal timing of bad calls while the Bucks likely had the most bad calls go against them but not ones that were as impactful to the viewer as they weren’t nearly as obvious as the bad ones against Boston. Crazy times which is the norm for Giannis-officiated playoff games. Would hate to be a zebra for these…….

* I am playing Over 212 in this game…..normal size boring play (Working hard to rehab after the euphoric highs of the R1 mispriced Under plays). I expect the Bucks offense to be the beneficiary of Giannis and Horst publicly calling out the officials for swallowing their whistles and expect tons of FT’s. So while you typically want the Under in an ugly game this is a little different when their are trips to the line every 16 seconds combined with a relatively low 212 I think we grind out an Over here. Keep in mind last game was an afternoon affair so a return to night game should also help with shooting as we saw in Sun nights Warriors/Grizz game…….I will expect a better shooting night out of Tatum and may dip into a prop or two on him. Maybe Tatum Over 28.5 (or a correlated Under 25.5 for Jaylen)……if you can same-game parlay these two that may be interesting depending on price.

Yeah feels like an over game now - especially with TL now out
I could only get 213.5 but based on your Tatum optimism (which i'm also irrationally feeling lol) I got a parlay of Celts + Over 213.5 + Tatum over 26.5

 

[Red Averages]

* I am playing Over 212 in this game…..normal size boring play (Working hard to rehab after the euphoric highs of the R1 mispriced Under plays). I expect the Bucks offense to be the beneficiary of Giannis and Horst publicly calling out the officials for swallowing their whistles and expect tons of FT’s. So while you typically want the Under in an ugly game this is a little different when their are trips to the line every 16 seconds combined with a relatively low 212 I think we grind out an Over here. Keep in mind last game was an afternoon affair so a return to night game should also help with shooting as we saw in Sun nights Warriors/Grizz game…….I will expect a better shooting night out of Tatum and may dip into a prop or two on him. Maybe Tatum Over 28.5 (or a correlated Under 25.5 for Jaylen)……if you can same-game parlay these two that may be interesting depending on price.

Yeah feels like an over game now - especially with TL now out
I could only get 213.5 but based on your Tatum optimism (which i'm also irrationally feeling lol) I got a parlay of Celts + Over 213.5 + Tatum over 26.5

Outstanding!

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Three things I’ve played so far tonight:

* Sixers +3 (1U)

* Bam Under 17.5 Points (.2U)

* Game & Series Prop - Sixers to Win G5 and Win Series +220 (.4U)

 

[Green (Tongued) Monster]

Three things I’ve played so far tonight:

* Sixers +3 (1U)

* Bam Under 17.5 Points (.2U)

* Game & Series Prop - Sixers to Win G5 and Win Series +220 (.4U)

Any analysis on why you like the sixers tonight? At first blush, I was leaning towards the Heat ML. Looking for both teams 3 point shooting to normalize tonight and homecourt putting them over the top. I see Miami coming out hot and the sixers not being able to catch up. I also like the Heat 1Q.

Also leaning Suns ML.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Mavs fans went after CP3’s family. I think he has a big game and Suns win. Dude will be on a mission tonight.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Any analysis on why you like the sixers tonight? At first blush, I was leaning towards the Heat ML. Looking for both teams 3 point shooting to normalize tonight and homecourt putting them over the top. I see Miami coming out hot and the sixers not being able to catch up. I also like the Heat 1Q.

Also leaning Suns ML.

At full strength this has shown to be a terrible matchup for the Heat. They have not prepared themselves with any playable size for a playoff series against Embiid. Bam’s defensive strengths are eliminated as he’s relegated to body Embiid best he can which isn’t his game. While the Heat “could” come out hot that’s random to me as they could just as easily not br hot…..that’s 3-pt shooting variance and not something I can handicap.

This game should be slow and ugly with Philly having the best individual matchups down the stretch. Getting the points in a game that could go down to final possession put me over the edge here.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Nice pick on Philly lol.

I’m going to be hitting up a prop market in Celtics/Bucks tonight that I missed out on last game. The “first scorer” play that we did well with on the Lakers in the bubble was apparent again last game without TL jumping against Lopez. Sadly, I didn’t realize this until after I saw the jump ball. For those who don’t recall it’s typical that a big or a role player gets the first play run for them to get them involved in the game early as opposed to the star who has a long game ahead of him. Sure enough, Grayson Allen swooped in for the first score on a layup. I’ll be looking at Lopez, Allen and Matthews for this prop in that order. None will be under +800 so I’ll post when these come out this afternoon.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

I blended Lopez (+750), Allen (+1100) and Matthews (+1500) for around +360 or so depending who gets the first score. Fun way to start and good value too with a 95%+ chance of the Bucks winning an unconstested jump. I should go to tape to see if Horford even contested it…..even if he does it’s still probably 70% and not likely to go to Giannis while Holiday will be the initiator.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

BOOM! Grayson (+1100) Allen!

 

[ElUno20]

Whoa!

 

[Jeff Van GULLY]

BOOM! Grayson (+1100) Allen!

Hit it for +1200, thank you!

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Hit it for +1200, thank you!

Awesome! Love hearing this!

 

[ElUno20]

We're expecting a rock fight today right? (Celtics Bucks)

 

[benhogan]

Is the line Celtics -5 for Sunday?

Game 7 is a coin toss

Bet MIL all day long if you're getting 5 or 5.5pts

 

[Red Averages]

Is the line Celtics -5 for Sunday?

Game 7 is a coin toss

Bet MIL all day long if you're getting 5 or 5.5pts

Maybe. On the other hand the in game 4, the Celtics won by 8, in game 5 they were up 9 heading into the 4th quarter, and won game 6 by 13.

Why is it such a terrible bet to assume the Celtics can win by 5? They could have won this series in 5 games, then blew out the Bucks on their own court in game 6.

I’m not saying the Celtics are a lock, I’m just saying Mil +5 doesn’t seem to be one… then again I’m biased.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Is the line Celtics -5 for Sunday?

Game 7 is a coin toss

Bet MIL all day long if you're getting 5 or 5.5pts

Exactly. For me it’s the same game plan as G5. Take the points preflop and if you want to bet the Celtics wait until it’s live get it closer to Pick. If you choose this route get the 5 quick I can’t imagine it lasting long.

Total opened 210 and is now 206.5 so the G7 Under Vultures were out early and in force!

 

[benhogan]

Exactly. For me it’s the same game plan as G5. Take the points preflop and if you want to bet the Celtics wait until it’s live get it closer to Pick. If you choose this route get the 5 quick I can’t imagine it lasting long.

Total opened 210 and is now 206.5 so the G7 Under Vultures were out early and in force!

disappointment hedge, if they lose I'll go for a good steak and drown my sorrows in some red wine

The winner of Game 7 wins the NBA Championship, am I wrong?

 

[Devizier]

I think the Heat or Warriors could match up well against these teams. Not sure about Dallas or Phoenix.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

disappointment hedge, if they lose I'll go for a good steak and drown my sorrows in some red wine

Or…..you win both and celebrate with a good steak!

The winner of Game 7 wins the NBA Championship, am I wrong?

The Warriors look like top tier frauds but the Heat and Suns seems to find ways to win playoff games so I wouldn’t be crowning the winner just yet.

 

[benhogan]

Or…..you win both and celebrate with a good steak!


The Warriors look like top tier frauds but the Heat and Suns seems to find ways to win playoff games so I wouldn’t be crowning the winner just yet.

man that Sixers/Heat series was some serious empty calories, borderline unwatchable. 76ers took 2 games with a broken Embiid and Maxey.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

man that Sixers/Heat series was some serious empty calories, borderline unwatchable. 76ers took 2 games with a broken Embiid and Maxey.

Harden pretty much single-handedly won G4 and that G3 back in Philly with Embiid back was that always dangerous road game for Miami with the 2-0 lead. At the end of the day they pretty much dominated a large pct of the minutes in the series.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Exactly. For me it’s the same game plan as G5. Take the points preflop and if you want to bet the Celtics wait until it’s live get it closer to Pick. If you choose this route get the 5 quick I can’t imagine it lasting long.

Total opened 210 and is now 206.5 so the G7 Under Vultures were out early and in force!

To follow up I have some small Bucks at +5 and will wait for Celtics to be -1.5 to hop on them.

Non-Edit: Beforr running out of house to watch 1H at sports bar I thought I submitted this. Got some Celtics +1.5 at (+115) earlier in the 1H to cover the Bucks +5 sizing. Now LTG!!!!

 

[ElUno20]

Im so glad i didnt bet on this bullshit game. I'd need a new tv by now

 

[BigSoxFan]

Im so glad i didnt bet on this bullshit game. I'd need a new tv by now

All the stars went under their prop numbers on points except Holiday, I think. I think Vegas probably did well today.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

All the stars went under their prop numbers on points except Holiday, I think. I think Vegas probably did well today.

Live Unders were Gold! They kept hitting.

Played Dallas +6.5 with some ML sprinkle.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Already clicking all Miami buttons in Game 1. Laying 2 & ML, Submit……Lay 2, ML, Submit…..Lay 2…..

We all know this golden playoff spot. It’s an auto max. The perfect scenario is (obv) a win followed by same play in G2 except on Boston. Let’s see how the dream set up works out.

 

[Marceline]

Already clicking all Miami buttons in Game 1. Laying 2 & ML, Submit……Lay 2, ML, Submit…..Lay 2…..

We all know this golden playoff spot. It’s an auto max. The perfect scenario is (obv) a win followed by same play in G2 except on Boston. Let’s see how the dream set up works out.

Miami series bet at +150 followed by betting on Boston (if Miami wins game 1) could be a good move too.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Miami series bet at +150 followed by betting on Boston (if Miami wins game 1) could be a good move too.

Smart man.

I’m unsure how involved I’ll get in this total but that number is REALLY low for a Game 1. I’d want to see what the 1H & 1Q numbers look like but if I play I’ll be on the Overs.

Btw, haven’t seen the score…..how’s Dallas doing?

LOL!!

Edit: I’m tempted to play some Phoenix 2H -11.5

 

[BigSoxFan]

Smart man.

I’m unsure how involved I’ll get in this total but that number is REALLY low for a Game 1. I’d want to see what the 1H & 1Q numbers look like but if I play I’ll be on the Overs.

Btw, haven’t seen the score…..how’s Dallas doing?

LOL!!

Edit: I’m tempted to play some Phoenix 2H -11.5

You think 206.5 is low for Heat/Celtics? Both teams really D up so hard for me to get a read on those numbers.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

You think 206.5 is low for Heat/Celtics? Both teams really D up so hard for me to get a read on those numbers.

In a Game 1 before the pace begins to crawl and while the game is still loose……yes I think it is very low. The Celtics aren’t going to be down here grinding like it’s a Game 7……which is why I like Miami to win fairly comfortably.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Line up to 4 now on the Horford and Smart news.