Beyond The Bubble - Official 2021-22 NBA Betting Thread
- Thread starter HomeRunBaker
- Start date
That first half under for the Heat was a roller coaster. Looked awful early, then with like a minute left the Heat had 42, then it was white knuckle time at the end.
They tried playing a tight 2-for-1 at the end too. Butler(?) got to the line with :27 on the clock and after our shot clock violation Lowry almost got off and made that runner. You got the win and a good sweat too lol.
Yeah that one was close but a win's a win! Also was sweating out end of the 1Q since I had under 51, ended up with a push which was a bit of a relief.
Threw away some of my 1st half winnings on Celtics ML live bet, but still overall + on the night. Small consolation given the result of the game.
I am probably staying away from G7 unless a good live bet opportunity opens up. I already have series bets on both teams at this point and o/u is too low for me. I don't think I could ever bet an over in any G7.
Threw away some of my 1st half winnings on Celtics ML live bet, but still overall + on the night. Small consolation given the result of the game.
I am probably staying away from G7 unless a good live bet opportunity opens up. I already have series bets on both teams at this point and o/u is too low for me. I don't think I could ever bet an over in any G7.
HRB, what have you bet so far?
Im thinking about moving the line up to 3.5 or 4…I really don’t think this will be a nail biter
I only played the Under 197.5 when it came out. I may look at the Miami TT Under if Herro is out too. Much like last game I wouldn’t touch the side pregame. Too much variance in a team with young stars to close out a series to play the Celtics these last two games. I don’t like Miami’s offense at all without Herro so relying on Butler and Lowry’s corpse to knock down 3’s all night isn’t where I want my money either.
That’s the great thing about sports betting……you don’t HAVE to make a bet. I’ll root for Defense and slow pace, the Celtics as a fan and as a holder of a Championship futures ticket. I’ll peak at player props tomorrow too.
No.
The last time they both scored 25+ was game 5 against the Bucks. I don't think you're getting enough odds at +150 for something like that.
Butler, not Brown. Looks like this happened in Games 1, 2, 6 so basically a coin flip for +150 odds, no?
I like Brown and Tatum, not Butler and Brown. Maybe Im still scarred from Games 4 and 5 but I don’t know if Butler has another great game in him
You don’t like Butler and Tatum? Feel like both guys are going to get a ton of volume and probably FT points too
Whoops, I totally misread that, thanks. It is better value with Butler and Tatum for sure. You are getting a couple points under each player's o/u for the game.
Channeling HRB here, defense in game 7 limiting pace and number of possessions will likely lead to a low scoring game overall. That would be the concern here.
But not a bad bet if you want something else to root for (besides the Cs victory of course).
Personally I am staying away from anything Butler related. I have no feel for what he’s going to do game to game. Is he injured? Is he using an injury as an excuse for playing like dog shit 2 games in a row?
I could see him going out and playing really well or I could see him laying a massive egg…I really don’t have a grasp on it
Fair. Although if he lays a massive egg, I’ll gladly take that L (and the likely Celtics W).
Definitely yay at that price. Game 7’s are about the stars and I’d expect both to get a ton of touches. That’s an outrageous price imo.
Yes agree on pace. I’d look to fade the secondary players points numbers since the ball is going to be in Tatum and Butlers hands virtually every trip down the floor. ISO’s with them, PNR through them……tons of opportunities. I played Lowry Under 12.5 points this morning. That’s only prop I’ve played so far. He isn’t looking for his shot at all except end of the clock and by then we recognize it.
I’m kinda sorta playing off a slow first 6 min. Right now here’s what I have and my plan (using units to better explain strategy)…..
* Lowry U12.5 points for .5 unit
* Under 197.5 for 1 unit
* Herro is game time decision. IF he is a go he increases pace and both teams offense so looking for low scoring first 6 min to grab Over 194-195 or so (obv the lower the better) for 2 unit.
If there is scoring out of the gate and number is above 198 I’ll wait to grab that number or be stuck with the original under.
This is beautiful!!!
Edit: For anyone curious if I got the perfect middle tonight……I did not. There was a tiny window where I could have gotten my number which would have resulted in the middle but at that time it didn’t appear that Herro was going to have an impact (on both ends) so wasn’t going to get minutes. A couple late Lowry hoops killed my prop too.
The Finals should present a ton of opportunities.
When I was looking at the late props I saw -150 just before Gametime. Nice hit!!
Played some Over 211 for Thursday night. Game 1 should have plenty of flow and pace to it and wanted to grab this early at BetOnline tonight as I expect it to bump up some by tomorrow when my locals have it posted.
For the side, this G1 reminds me of the Miami G1 when we struggled with a completely different type of opponent than Milwaukee. The Warriors ball movement, rotation and spacing may have us on our heels until we’ve seen it and adjusted. Gun to head I say we lose G1 and bounce back with a win in G2. I have a fairly juicy Celtics future ticket so I will likely play the Warriors in G1 for two reasons……one, I feel they are the right side in this game for reasons mentioned above and two, it’s almost like a freeroll play in the form of a small hedge…..as in, if the Celtics win I gain so much more equity in the futures ticket than I lose in the game bet. Of course if GS wins by 1-3 then that’s not good but I supposed I could even hedge that win margin bet against the money line play or simply play the ML. Not sure yet but def wouldn’t wager on Boston in G1. Love the bounce back in G2 though.
Edit: Warriors TT Over also looks good in G1 due to our adjustment period and their propensity to go on big runs at home putting points up in a hurry. It figures to be open 107.5 I’d guess.
For the side, this G1 reminds me of the Miami G1 when we struggled with a completely different type of opponent than Milwaukee. The Warriors ball movement, rotation and spacing may have us on our heels until we’ve seen it and adjusted. Gun to head I say we lose G1 and bounce back with a win in G2. I have a fairly juicy Celtics future ticket so I will likely play the Warriors in G1 for two reasons……one, I feel they are the right side in this game for reasons mentioned above and two, it’s almost like a freeroll play in the form of a small hedge…..as in, if the Celtics win I gain so much more equity in the futures ticket than I lose in the game bet. Of course if GS wins by 1-3 then that’s not good but I supposed I could even hedge that win margin bet against the money line play or simply play the ML. Not sure yet but def wouldn’t wager on Boston in G1. Love the bounce back in G2 though.
Edit: Warriors TT Over also looks good in G1 due to our adjustment period and their propensity to go on big runs at home putting points up in a hurry. It figures to be open 107.5 I’d guess.
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Played a Prop today that I feel is excellent value and fits directly in with my narrative on Boston being the better team/better matchup along with the Celtics struggling against a different system than they’ve seen for last 7 games.
* Warriors Win Game 1 and Celtics win Series (+400)
* Warriors Win Game 1 and Celtics win Series (+400)
Oh wow, thank you for sharing this! I am going to try and find that bet myself
Draftkings has a series prop for the longest three-pointer made, with Pritchard at +8000. Fun bet, I thought it was worth throwing $50 on.
Yeah I love this bet, I was gonna come here and post the same thing.
In addition to what you said above there is also the rest factor for GS and the Celtics coming off yet another brutal 7 game slugfest setting up for a game 1 letdown.
If the Celtics lose game 1, what do you imagine the series line will be? If it is longer than +235 then this is a bad bet. You would be better off just going with a straight moneyline bet on game 1 and then rolling your stake plus winnings into a series market bet.
I don’t know what the series line would be but +235 seems pretty close. Genuinely asking. Oilers were about +215 before losing game one on the road tonight and now are +350.
If a little less you pay a few bucks for the flexibility of being able to have a game’s worth of information to decide whether to place the second bet. I guess I don’t see the need to jump into a juiced parlay that should be close to available as separate bets. I guess if Steph breaks an ankle at the end of a one point win in game one maybe the series line is worse but it would have to be something like that.
Edit — also if you have DK check for a promo where they will pay your money line bet on game 1 as a winner if your team loses after leading by 10 or more. If you have that promo you could use it to make your game 1 bet and get a little insurance that you cannot get if you bet it as a prop parlay.
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I dunno, I think 3.5 points in game 1 is WAY too much. I took the Celtics in the series at +140 and think I like them to steal game 1 at +145 as well. I am a completely unemotional gambler and bet against Boston teams all the time — I just really think the Celts will come out strong on Thursday.
Not a bad point. I'd guess something like +210, +220 or so on the Celtics if they lose game 1, but maybe I'm off.
No DK here (Massachusetts).
Good post.
Couple points.
* Boston down 0-1 will not be wider than +235 I would expect +195 to +205 so I don’t feel this is an overly juiced number. If I did I wouldn’t feel there is value in it.
* I’m not looking to overthink a prop such as this as I’ll obv be playing game by game as well and possibly not every game on the same side. It’s a small add to my existing championship ticket which I didn’t necessarily want to do but I like the price and wanted to share it with those who either don’t have a pending future or wanted something additional beyond game to game at a 4-1 price.
* I’m in FL. No DK. I ride with 80% locals and 20% offshore unless I’m traveling (which I’ll be doing later in the series being in CT for G5-7 if necessary).
Seems in the ballpark. If all the games were thought to be a coin flip the implied odds of a team winning at least 3 of 6 is .667 or +200 for the .333 side. I think the books have Celtics as a modest underdog.
I guess my general assumption is that when a book sells a parlay they do it to add juice and so my guess is that +235 will be close. Anyway, I can’t say I am rooting for you guys and I hope we do not find out!
I haven't seen any added juice on parlays at the books I use (offshore so BetOnline, bet105, and Bookmaker are what I am using). Although I rarely bet parlays.
And as you point out, if the events are sequential, then it often makes little sense to bet a parlay and give up the flexibility even if it's mathematically equal. But like HRB, felt there is some value on this one.
I did the DK promo and put it on the Dubs. Hoping for the best case scenario where the Dubs blow a 10 point lead and lose but I still win the bet. But if the Celtics win a close one where the Dubs never lead by 10+, I'll certainly gladly lose this bet.
Seems to me if you're of the opinion that the W's win G1 but the C's win the series you sell the W's series (I see it trading 1.72 on Betfair) at 40% more notional than you buy W's G1 (available at 1.63). If you're right about G1 and the W's win it you put the rest of your intended amount of the C's at the better odds. If you're wrong on G1 then at least you've gotten some Boston before the price goes up. Should be able to beat +400 either way.
I really miss betfair, had a lot of fun with that when I lived in the UK. Sadly we have no betting markets available in the US. Would love to see betfair expand here now that the laws have been changing.
I think we're really overanalyzing this one bet now, but I just ran the numbers again based on Golden State's current G1 money line of -162.
Break even would be very close to the +210 that I'd guess Celtics series odds to be if they lose game 1. So yeah, maybe I should have just bet Golden State ML and then parlayed that myself into a Celtics series bet after G1. But either way I don't consider it much different since it probably works out the same or close to it.
Total now up to 213.5 and 214. Warriors TT which did open 107.5 is now 108.5
Early birds get the worm.
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Played a couple “fun” or “pizza props” for the series.
* Most Rebounds in Series: Jayson Tatum +950
Reasoning: Less 2BIGZ will mean minutes at the 5 split between TL and Horford wirh Warriors tendency to go super small. More Warrior (and Celtics) three’s can lead to fewer rebounds around the rim and more in intermediate areas where Tatum would reside.
* Highest Single Game Scoring Performance: Klay Thompson +900
Not nearly the technical analysis of Tatum’s prop but moreso Klay’s ability to go nuclear in any given game.
* Most Rebounds in Series: Jayson Tatum +950
Reasoning: Less 2BIGZ will mean minutes at the 5 split between TL and Horford wirh Warriors tendency to go super small. More Warrior (and Celtics) three’s can lead to fewer rebounds around the rim and more in intermediate areas where Tatum would reside.
* Highest Single Game Scoring Performance: Klay Thompson +900
Not nearly the technical analysis of Tatum’s prop but moreso Klay’s ability to go nuclear in any given game.
The way I played it was to put $500 on the Celtics at +145 and then I hedged at -164. If the Celtics get up at any point by 10, I'll basically be rolling with a $35 +3100 bet on the Celtics blowing the lead which will be a nice solace if they do. Or I might actually just put more on the Celtics side on a live bet in order to lock up some profit.
(I don't really actually gamble -- I'm an arber. I also just discovered this thread and so I'm sorry in advance if this kind of stuff is not really discussed here, and I'll go back to lurking.)
DK is pretty strict on playing both sides of a promo. I’ll be curious to hear if they let it stand but definitely a smart strategy if it works!
Ha, I didn’t even think about playing different books against each other. Very savvy.
I just maxed it out on the Celtics. I think we jump out quick and they’re rusty, similar to G1 against the Heat. Or maybe I’m just a degenerate.