Beyond The Bubble - Official 2021-22 NBA Betting Thread
- Thread starter HomeRunBaker
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Good stuff all around! The max Miami TT U99.5 and 1H U50.5 were non-sweats. Hit U53 1Q & U196.5 at +285 small too. Even almost backdoored my small Heat +14.5 live. To top off the night my WNBA buddy who was 3-0 on year in Totals (all Unders) texted me with the Aces/Sparks Over that also cashed. Can’t beat that start to the week and now we’ve got a chance to claim home court on Wednesday!!!
Alarm set for 4:58am for a day at Roland Garros!! 5am play on Over 38.5 Shapovolov match (he’s so good at zig-zagging the first two sets of any match) and used Djere -800 as part of a 4-playerML parlay. No rest for the wicked!!! LOL!
Alarm set for 4:58am for a day at Roland Garros!! 5am play on Over 38.5 Shapovolov match (he’s so good at zig-zagging the first two sets of any match) and used Djere -800 as part of a 4-playerML parlay. No rest for the wicked!!! LOL!
Ok is there any chance that Orlando passes on Jabari Smith with the #1 pick? I cannot fathom a GM selecting Holmgren over him (or over a lot of other guys too but that’s for a different thread) and he’s gone from -110 to be the first pick to -130 since the lottery. Am I nuts or shouldn’t he be in the -275 to -300 range at this stage? I feel like I’m being trapped and figured I’d ask some here their thoughts? @nighthob? Bueller? Anyone?
EDIT: Shapo is still a head case with todays no-show. Had Djere and Goffin in a ML parlay with Tsitsipas tonight to lose juice with my tennis today.
EDIT: Shapo is still a head case with todays no-show. Had Djere and Goffin in a ML parlay with Tsitsipas tonight to lose juice with my tennis today.
I haven't followed it that closely, but The Athletic was hinting that there's a chance it might be Holmgren:
https://theathletic.com/3328595/2022/05/23/nba-draft-combine-analysis/
This would be bizarre. Jabari Smith is 6-10 and long plus he’s actually really good at basketball. He projects to matchup well with grown men too.
thanks for link
I see enormous value tonight on the Double Result. It’s the same one I liked to hedge on my Dallas play last game. Price is even better tonight.
* Dallas/Golden St (Dall to win 1H/GSt to win game) at a ridiculous +550
Teams down 3-0 tend to lose the fight in them when a 3Q run begins and that is the Warriors M.O. This result cashes more than 1 out of 5.5x
* Dallas/Golden St (Dall to win 1H/GSt to win game) at a ridiculous +550
Teams down 3-0 tend to lose the fight in them when a 3Q run begins and that is the Warriors M.O. This result cashes more than 1 out of 5.5x
I think it would be dumb (not picking Smith) but it is the Magic, so...
I like the Dallas/GS double result bet, I will be joining you on that one.
Honestly I don’t get it. The fact that Holmgren skipped measurement signals to me that he’s only slightly closer to his listed weight than Zion Williamson. I’m thrilled that Boston skipped this draft.
1H play covers my Double Result bet. I’d have liked the Mavs lead to be i dunno…..one point? Maybe they will revert back to missing nearly every three-point shot they take while the Warriors do their usual 3Q thing.
May be a good live Under spot mid to late 4Q assuming it’s a 25+ pt lead and the game slows to a crawl. Watch the pace late. I’ll post if I jump in.
Still in waiting game for props but played Over 204 on the Bam Covid, most other plus defenders on both teams injuries that should knock someone out, and other chatter. Didn’t want to wait for it to get to 206+ should news hit. I’m leaning Over Lowry points if the right injury news hits but waiting as it’s lineup dependen.
Would you hit the Heat team total under if Smart and TL are playing? Seems like they will still have issues creating offense but maybe they get to the line more tonight?
I wouldn’t bc I’d expect a ton of small ball and pace from Miami as opposed to Dedmon playing Bam’s minutes. I would expect that to be consensus.
Pace is a good point. I could see the Celtics getting into the paint now leading to more 3s too — and action off the miss.
Hopefully they can try to keep them into a halfcourt game.
I hammered Lowry over 10.
Offshores still haven’t taken down Bam props or adjusted others from Heat either. The info game within the game. Who wins? We shall see.
Boston opens -9 for Friday night with total opening at 201 and quickly bet down to 200.
A couple of my places have wild lines for Conference MVP’s that differ from the offshores so I’m playing some….
* Jaylen Brown +250 & +240
It’s clearly down to Tatum and Brown should the Celtics win Game 6. Fans could flip a coin but the media votes so Tatum should be favored but this number is so damn wide! I’d pass on this at anything under +180 or so but I do see a Jaylen path. If Boston gets out to an early lead maybe a banged up Tatum defers more and should this game enter borderline blowout I can see him completely disengaging from offensive aggression which would open the door for Jaylen to take over. If he has a huge night there will be recency bias from the voters as well so I see good value at the numbers I just grabbed this at today.
* Jaylen Brown +250 & +240
It’s clearly down to Tatum and Brown should the Celtics win Game 6. Fans could flip a coin but the media votes so Tatum should be favored but this number is so damn wide! I’d pass on this at anything under +180 or so but I do see a Jaylen path. If Boston gets out to an early lead maybe a banged up Tatum defers more and should this game enter borderline blowout I can see him completely disengaging from offensive aggression which would open the door for Jaylen to take over. If he has a huge night there will be recency bias from the voters as well so I see good value at the numbers I just grabbed this at today.
That’s what I mean. Causals who will assume Tatum is the MVP bc the Celtics won even if Jaylen has more impactful games. It works the other way too though in that they will also be more likely to fall victim to recency bias if Jaylen has a big game while Tatum defers. The price was still too good to pass up.
Anyone have anything going tonight? Nothing jumps out to me, so I was waiting for in-game to see if anything catches my eye.
I did 1/5th of a unit on Dallas first half + Warriors win +425. Something to root for.
I did 1/5th of a unit on Dallas first half + Warriors win +425. Something to root for.
The only thing I have is Over 214.5 I hit early 2Q. I kept waiting for Dallas to go on a little 8-0 run followed by a Kerr TO to get a nice live number but Luka is killing them in every way so that opportunity next even came.
Put a substantial (for me) bet on Miami under 96.5.
Probably should have asked about that here beforehand, but jumped on it because it felt like a no-brainer, but the fact it felt like a “no brainer” now has me worried…
So, wondering if I made a sucker bet?
I dunno, I just have a hard time seeing the Heat approaching 100 points tonight, unless the Celtics just run away with it, and the 4th is just garbage time with the Heat leaving their guys in…(fwiw not a Celtics fan, so no homerism in the pick)
Probably should have asked about that here beforehand, but jumped on it because it felt like a no-brainer, but the fact it felt like a “no brainer” now has me worried…
So, wondering if I made a sucker bet?
I dunno, I just have a hard time seeing the Heat approaching 100 points tonight, unless the Celtics just run away with it, and the 4th is just garbage time with the Heat leaving their guys in…(fwiw not a Celtics fan, so no homerism in the pick)
If you're worried about possible garbage time impacting the bet just go with Miami U49 1st half.
This feels like a very, very safe bet. I believe the Heat's last 5 halves are all under 50 (they're averaging 41.8 per half the last 5 halves). U49 doesn't even seem fair.
Good call. I’ll have to take a look at that.
I actually like that more than the game total.
I just started to get worried because it seemed obvious, and lots of times when that’s the case, it’s because it’s a real square bet.
I can always pay attention to the live betting too, if I feel less enthused about things by tip-off.
I know others in the Cellar have disagreed with me but the variable to me here is Herro as he opens up their offense even if he is missing shots himself. The last two games without him the Heat had no rhythm in their halfcourt sets even on the shots that weren’t challenged such as Caleb Martin’s trademarked, “Hey I have the ball and nobody is near me so I’ll take a flat-footed three.”
Without Herro I’m comfortable even with that low number. With him I wouldn’t touch it and like the full game Over 201 or whatever it is now since Herro’s presence should help both offenses and pace. Nothing max or anything nuts just a normal play so I’ll wait on clarification.
For the side, I would never lay 8.5 with Boston. I’ll look for in-game stuff and not even sure what side bc any live number will nearly always show value to the large dog. Decent chance I pass completely and root my Championship ticket to get heads up.
Thanks for your analysis @HomeRunBaker
I agree completely on the Herro assessment. I guess my mistake than (if there was one) was going a bit heavy on the assumption that even if he does play, he won’t be near 100%
I agree completely on the Herro assessment. I guess my mistake than (if there was one) was going a bit heavy on the assumption that even if he does play, he won’t be near 100%
In the first 3 games of the series, when Herro was active, the Heat scored 54, 45, and 62 points in the first half. 118, 102, 109 totals.
I cant type. I meant being that they just did this (and how rare it is), they could possibly bounce back.
I shouldn’t have been so lazy to not do 90 seconds of research to support what I’ve been saying all week. Thank you for posting.
It is……since he’s been out of the lineup. There was a correlation between Herro’s presence and the rhythm of the shots Miami has been taking. I’m surprised there has been so much push back on that in the Cellar. Clean catch-and-shoots versus Duncan and Strus running sideline suicides behind Bam trying to get a shot off against the clock.
I got caught in the middle on this one as he was “expected to play” per Miami beat writers and the offshore totals began moving up from 201 (up to as high as 203.5 at one point) so I got some Over 201’s expected him to be confirmed. Oh well…..hope the C’s catch fire and get a little lazy chasing above the arc.
I still wouldn’t lay the 8 pregame though. I’d be mildly surprised if this is a cakewalk. Spo isn’t going to allow his team to mail this one in imo.
It's -9 now and yeah I'm not laying those points.
I have U51 1st Q, U50.5 2nd Q, Miami U49 1st half.
Let's hope the trend continues with Herro out again.
Edit: Regression on Celtics 3P shots would imply over. If the shots start falling at home they could easily put up a 60pt half or get to 120 for the game.
I have U51 1st Q, U50.5 2nd Q, Miami U49 1st half.
Let's hope the trend continues with Herro out again.
Edit: Regression on Celtics 3P shots would imply over. If the shots start falling at home they could easily put up a 60pt half or get to 120 for the game.
Yeah. I’d say your risk is these teams actually hit a shot for once. I have minimal action outside of some monster series bets pending.
The good news is if the Celtics win I’ll also cash my +165 ticket on them that I took during that TO.