Betts/Price to LA for Verdugo/Jeter Downs/TBA

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djbayko

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The reason for the discrepancy between reports of Twins backing out of deal seem apparent to me. The Twins have drawn a line in the sand in value they’re willing to give up in this trade. Since LA isn’t running to the table to fill in that gap, from the perspective of some parties, that equates to (or can be spun as) the Twins backing out. From the perspective of others parties, the Twins are still willing to go forward with the original deal++.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Looks like someone sees through the bullshit. This is why Boras has been working his ass off and the Union is shouting about privacy.

Occam’s razor: The deal fell apart because the Red Sox saw something that gave them pause on the medical records.

If you want to put stock in some alternative narrative — like the Bloom sucks or fickle owner narrative — at least first ask who wants you to believe it. Here is a hint. It rhymes with Shreterol. Or Moras.
This. Those BA Tweets are telling. People can go down the conspiracy rabbit-hole all they want but recent developments are entirely consistent with the Sox getting access to medical information that wasn't available to them prior to the transaction.

Also, we as fans tend to forget that professional sports transactions are just that - transactions. There is a lot of money at stake, there are ripple effects and the people making these deals are often serving several different masters as well as their own biases. Given that this deal involves two players who are making ~$60mm combined, which as we all know has a huge impact on payrolls etc, its not as easy as plugging it into a trade machine and saying "done". This was a complicated deal and sometimes complicated deals fall apart.
 

cornwalls@6

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People rooting for the deal to fall apart are definitely going to be the first ones irate when they realize they get one year of Betts in a dumpster fire awkward season on a non all-in team and the future looks much bleaker for the few years before Bogaerts opts-out.
That’s a flawed take on a couple of levels. Wherever he plays this year, Mookie will be highly motivated to have a big year heading into FA. Super awkward dumpster fire season is just foolish. Secondly, the bleak future is an over-sell. The Red Sox have the resources to field a competitive club pretty much every year, if they choose to. Getting under the threshold certainly helps them do it with a home grown approach, but there’s other ways to skin that cat, and they are one of a handful of franchises with the wherewithal to pursue those.
 

LeoCarrillo

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It'd be fascinating to know if Friedman's med people in LA agree with Bloom's.

If this were Moneyball 2, the the phone call between the two in that case would be great entertainment.
 

Plympton91

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He's also correct. There is no universe where Sox ownership--or any ownership, for that matter--is going to keep their feet on the pedal past the LT thresholds season after season. If he's here for 2020, In 2021 you can have Betts or you can have a competitive team, but you can't have both.
We don’t know that at all. Bounce backs from either Eovaldi or Price make it easier to trade them for value with each having only 2 years left at that point. They could turn Workman and Barnes into nice cheap pieces for 2021 at the deadline this year. Breakouts from 2 or 3 prospects could fill holes for minimum salary.

The Red Sox ownership is choosing to be risk averse. That is a valid choice, but by no means the only one.
 

nattysez

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The Red Sox have the resources to field a competitive club pretty much every year, if they choose to. Getting under the threshold certainly helps them do it with a home grown approach, but there’s other ways to skin that cat, and they are one of a handful of franchises with the wherewithal to pursue those.
There are about 100 posts in this thread that explain why this line of thinking is wrong. If you read the thread and still believe this, you're going to have a bad time. It's important that they reset their tax situation as soon as they can.
 

RedOctober3829

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We don’t know that at all. Bounce backs from either Eovaldi or Price make it easier to trade them for value with each having only 2 years left at that point. They could turn Workman and Barnes into nice cheap pieces for 2021 at the deadline this year. Breakouts from 2 or 3 prospects could fill holes for minimum salary.

The Red Sox ownership is choosing to be risk averse. That is a valid choice, but by no means the only one.
If they chose to stay above the LT consistently, they'd be the only ones doing it. Every other team re-sets the tax after they go over.
 

Cellar-Door

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I think it comes down to a belief that the cbt is really not an impediment and that it is just about paying more. Some people seem to believe that it is just a fig leaf and that teams can blow through it every year if the owner isn’t greedy.

The fact that other teams that can afford pretty much what they want, like the Dodgers and Yankees, have gotten under seems to confirm it really is a pressing need.
I think part of it is also likely that even if they do understand, people are frustrated that only a year ago the Red Sox were agreeing to a $17M a year deal with Eovaldi, and signing Sale to an early extension that pays him 30M a year until he's 36 and now need to trade one of the best in the game at a discount in order to save money.

Add the ownership leaking that they offerred Mookie a 10 year 300M offer (so how were they getting under the LT if he signed that? Why not continue that plan?) and it's not unreasonable that people are upset that the LT is suddenly a huge obstacle, and the only solution is trading the team's best and most popular player.
 

Green Monster

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Seems like one alternative would be that the Dodgers proceed with the Maeda for Graterol portion of the deal but keep Graterol and send Gonsolin to the Red Sox......unless of course they don't like his medicals anymore than the Red Sox.
 

Plympton91

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If they chose to stay above the LT consistently, they'd be the only ones doing it. Every other team re-sets the tax after they go over.
The moves I outlined would have them below the luxury tax in 2021 even if they signed Mookie. They’d be way below if they didn’t sign Mookie.

Just for 2020 there was a superior option available. If they’d nontendered Bradley they’d be $10 million closer to the cap in 2020, and then not have had to staple Price to Betts to get sufficiently under. Then they could have just traded Betts for the best package available.
 

amfox1

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Seems like one alternative would be that the Dodgers proceed with the Maeda for Graterol portion of the deal but keep Graterol and send Gonsolin to the Red Sox......unless of course they don't like his medicals anymore than the Red Sox.
Reportedly, MINN offered to supplement Graterol with a 11-20 prospect and BOS refused (per Heyman, a Boras mouthpiece, so take it FWIW).

LA could do something similar - send Graterol and a 10-20 SP prospect (Mitchell White, Dennis Santana, Michael Grove, Edwin Uceta) to BOS just to get the deal done and move on.
 

scottyno

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I think part of it is also likely that even if they do understand, people are frustrated that only a year ago the Red Sox were agreeing to a $17M a year deal with Eovaldi, and signing Sale to an early extension that pays him 30M a year until he's 36 and now need to trade one of the best in the game at a discount in order to save money.

Add the ownership leaking that they offerred Mookie a 10 year 300M offer (so how were they getting under the LT if he signed that? Why not continue that plan?) and it's not unreasonable that people are upset that the LT is suddenly a huge obstacle, and the only solution is trading the team's best and most popular player.
That offer was last offseason right? So likely the answer is if he signed that they either don't sign Eovaldi or they don't extend Sale.
 

RedOctober3829

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The moves I outlined would have them below the luxury tax in 2021 even if they signed Mookie. They’d be way below if they didn’t sign Mookie.

Just letting Mookie and Bradley walk after this year gets them under. If they’d nontendered Bradley and signed Pillar instead they’d be multimillions closer to the cap in 2020 too.
I do agree they should have non-tendered JBJ. To me, it makes more sense to get under the tax this year because it would make an attempt to re-sign Betts easier to do financially.
 

Cellar-Door

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That offer was last offseason right? So likely the answer is if he signed that they either don't sign Eovaldi or they don't extend Sale.
If that is the case....they should have traded Mookie by the deadline last year, they would get far more for him and there was no reason to keep him. Not sure they could have gotten under last year, but they could have made the same move and gotten more return.
 

StuckOnYouk

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I know some people are dumping on Bloom right now but I like the fact that you've got a young GM in his first big move holding his ground on the value he thinks he should get, rather than just signing off because you have 3 other teams, a players union, a super agent and maybe even some baseball writers getting restless to get this done.

He doesn't think this pitcher is what he thought he was after seeing the medicals - doesn't matter what baseball america or the twins or whomever though this kid was going to be. He's got his value that has to be met for Betts, Price and 46 million being sent over with Price.
 

cornwalls@6

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There are about 100 posts in this thread that explain why this line of thinking is wrong. If you read the thread and still believe this, you're going to have a bad time. It's important that they reset their tax situation as soon as they can.
I do think it’s highly preferable to reset the tax soon, though I think that could done next off season, or at the deadline as well. But the idea that this deal falling apart dooms them now or in the future is just wrong, IMO. And they absolutely do have resources to acquire MLB talent externally, in a way that only a few other franchises do. The tweet I was responding to read like front office propaganda.
 

amfox1

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The moves I outlined would have them below the luxury tax in 2021 even if they signed Mookie. They’d be way below if they didn’t sign Mookie.

Just letting Mookie and Bradley walk after this year gets them under. If they’d nontendered Bradley and signed Pillar instead they’d be multimillions closer to the cap in 2020 too.
Right now, the Red Sox are committed to seven players for approx. $133.9mm in AAV (Price (31.0), Sale (25.6), Eovaldi (17.0), JDM (22.0, if no opt-out), Bogaerts (20.0), Pedroia (13.8), Vazquez (4.5)) in 2021.

In addition, the Red Sox will have approx $24mm in 40-man costs, medical benefits, etc. (using @redsoxpayroll's spreadsheet).

So, before accounting for free agents and arb players, the Red Sox would be at approx $158mm with six players on the 25-man accounted for, plus Pedroia.

ERod (arb4), Barnes (arb3), Benintendi (arb2) and Devers (arb1) could easily run $25-30mm. Assuming $30mm, the Red Sox are now at $188mm with 10 players (plus Pedroia) committed for 2021.

There is no chance to re-sign Mookie, keep Price (who will be a 10/5 guy after the season) and JDM and stay below the luxury tax threshold in 2021.

Totally agreed on JBJ, I was shocked he wasn't non-tendered or traded. They'd be $14mm above the threshold (less the cost of his replacement) and trading Price and eating half of his salary would have put the team just below the threshold.
 

nvalvo

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On Verdugo or Graterol? I am surprised the Dodgers even get to look at Graterol.
On Graterol.

Dr. Neal ElAttrache is Head Team Physician for the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Los Angeles Rams. He is the President of the American Orthopaedic Society for Sports Medicine and President of the Herodicus Society. He is frequently recognized as a top sports medicine specialist, having been identified as one of the "Top 50 Most Powerful in LA Sports"by the Los Angeles Daily News. He is consistently selected as a top physician by peer review process and by renowned medical and sports publications and has been recognized as one of "Hollywood's Top Doctors" and as one of the "Best Orthopedic Surgeons in Los Angeles" by the The Hollywood Reporter.
[link]
 

absintheofmalaise

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"negative media reaction" could mean so many things

and a lot of the reporting on this trade has agreed with the fans, which has undoubtedly fired many of us up more. seeing a vindication of one's beliefs in the media is a very empowering thing (see also: the last 4 years of racists in charge of politics empowering white supremacists to be open about their bigotry just about everywhere)
There is no reason to include politics in your post. If you can't make your point without politics, don't post. This is your only warning.
 

BaseballJones

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How many people that are 100% dead set on not trading Mookie are going to complain loudly when he leaves for free agency after 2020 and all the Sox get out of the deal is a comp pick and are still in luxury tax hell because they haven’t been able to get under it?

Because if they don’t deal Mookie/Price, that’s what’s gonna happen.
 

Plympton91

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Right now, the Red Sox are committed to seven players for approx. $133.9mm in AAV (Price (31.0), Sale (25.6), Eovaldi (17.0), JDM (22.0, if no opt-out), Bogaerts (20.0), Pedroia (13.8), Vazquez (4.5)) in 2021.

In addition, the Red Sox will have approx $24mm in 40-man costs, medical benefits, etc. (using @redsoxpayroll's spreadsheet).

So, before accounting for free agents and arb players, the Red Sox would be at approx $158mm with six players on the 25-man accounted for, plus Pedroia.

ERod (arb4), Barnes (arb3), Benintendi (arb2) and Devers (arb1) could easily run $25-30mm. Assuming $30mm, the Red Sox are now at $188mm with 10 players (plus Pedroia) committed for 2021.

There is no chance to re-sign Mookie, keep Price (who will be a 10/5 guy after the season) and JDM and stay below the luxury tax threshold in 2021.

Totally agreed on JBJ, I was shocked he wasn't non-tendered or traded. They'd be $14mm above the threshold (less the cost of his replacement) and trading Price and eating half of his salary would have put the team just below the threshold.
Now the “benefits and 40-man” cost is up to $24 million? I e seen it as low as $8 and even the ownership apologists in this thread are using $10 as the number. That’s absurd. Even gold plated family medical insurance costs $30,000. How can it possibly be that high?

And part of the 2021 plan I outline was to trade Price or Eovaldi or both after this season, so I would jettison part of their salaries at least. And to trade Barnes (and Workman) at the deadline this year for something valuable, so he wouldn’t be in my calculation either.

it would still take some breakouts from current minor leaguers or Bloom finding his very own Justin Turner circa 2015, but it can be done.
 

Green Monster

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Reportedly, MINN offered to supplement Graterol with a 11-20 prospect and BOS refused (per Heyman, a Boras mouthpiece, so take it FWIW).

LA could do something similar - send Graterol and a 10-20 SP prospect (Mitchell White, Dennis Santana, Michael Grove, Edwin Uceta) to BOS just to get the deal done and move on.
I think the other comparable Twin's prospects are in the lower minors. Sox looking for someone ML ready. Thats why I think it would make sense for the Dodgers to keep the Twins piece send Goselin to Boston......I'm sure its not that easy, lol
 

sodenj5

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If the trade doesn’t go through, it doesn’t change the facts that:

Mookie is still highly unlikely to sign a deal with Boston without hitting free agency.

Boston is still in a pickle against the luxury tax.

While it’s fun to think about Mookie coming back from the brink of oblivion, the Sox best path forward still likely involves trading Mookie to maximize some sort of return and jettisoning salary in the process.
 

DebSox

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Ok guys, between the Kobe threads and TB12 moving and this, can somebody give me a short course version of this. I am still on pg. 15. I will say all this gives me pause
 

amfox1

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Now the “benefits and 40-man” cost is up to $24 million? I e seen it as low as $8 and even the ownership apologists in this thread are using $10 as the number. That’s absurd. Even gold plated family medical insurance costs $30,000. How can it possibly be that high?

And part of the 2021 plan I outline was to trade Price or Eovaldi or both after this season, so I would jettison part of their salaries at least. And to trade Barnes (and Workman) at the deadline this year for something valuable, so he wouldn’t be in my calculation either.

it would still take some breakouts from current minor leaguers or Bloom finding his very own Justin Turner circa 2015, but it can be done.
I cited the source for the $24mm in my post. He is estimating $23mm for same this year. Cot's is estimating $22.43mm this year, so the number is in the ballpark. Obviously, I cannot respond to the "ownership apologists" as to their sources.

Price cannot be traded after this year without his consent, as his 10/5 rights kick in.

Workman was not in my calculation, as he will be a free agent.

Of course, it can be done, especially if JDM exercises his opt-out. However it's done, the team will have major holes.
 

nvalvo

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And part of the 2021 plan I outline was to trade Price or Eovaldi or both after this season, so I would jettison part of their salaries at least. And to trade Barnes (and Workman) at the deadline this year for something valuable, so he wouldn’t be in my calculation either.
This would require Price's consent, however, because his 10-5 rights would vest.
 

RedOctober3829

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I cited the source for the $24mm in my post. He is estimating $23mm for same this year. Cot's is estimating $22.43mm this year, so the number is in the ballpark. Obviously, I cannot respond to the "ownership apologists" as to their sources.

Price cannot be traded after this year without his consent, as his 10/5 rights kick in.

Workman was not in my calculation, as he will be a free agent.

Of course, it can be done, especially if JDM exercises his opt-out. However it's done, the team will have major holes.
I certainly wouldn't count on JD opting out as my hopes in getting under the tax. As you know, this is the easiest way to do it albeit the most painful.
 

amfox1

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I think the other comparable Twin's prospects are in the lower minors. Sox looking for someone ML ready. Thats why I think it would make sense for the Dodgers to keep the Twins piece send Goselin to Boston......I'm sure its not that easy, lol
If LA was willing to send Gonsolin to BOS, this deal would have been done long ago IMO. White and Santana are ML or close-to-ML ready but with lower ceilings. Grove and Uceta are at least a year further away.
 

MartyBC

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Ok guys, between the Kobe threads and TB12 moving and this, can somebody give me a short course version of this. I am still on pg. 15. I will say all this gives me pause
If you stopped at 15 and cheated by looking ahead, don’t go back. Pick up something from the library instead. )))
 

NomarsFool

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How many people that are 100% dead set on not trading Mookie are going to complain loudly when he leaves for free agency after 2020 and all the Sox get out of the deal is a comp pick and are still in luxury tax hell because they haven’t been able to get under it?

Because if they don’t deal Mookie/Price, that’s what’s gonna happen.
I'd like to see them go for it one last time with Mookie. If come June, the SP is as bad as last year - go ahead and trade everyone over 30 and reset. I'll have no problem (as a fan) if they reset the luxury tax the following season. Last year, they pretty much didn't make a call either way. They didn't fish, and they didn't cut bait. They would need to be more decisive this year. I also think they are selling too low on David Price. I realize there's a risk Price' value gets even worse, but I think there's a good chance it gets better as well. If he pitches well for 3 months, some contending team will be desperate for a proven starter.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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This thread is just getting started. If we can make a billion and seventy two page thread on the old ezboard for Cabin Mirror (before he became a scoreboard celebrity), just imagine what we can accomplish for Mookie Betts, David Price and whatever island of misfit toys returns the Sox will ultimately get in return for them.
 

bankshot1

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I just went on to the LA Times site to get a sense of local feelings re the trade.

Its a paysight but here are the headlines about the trade that I saw.

https://www.latimes.com/sports/story/2020-02-06/dodgers-dugout-mookie-betts

Bill Plaschke: Mookie Betts trade shows Dodgers are finally serious about winning World Series

Dylan Hernandez: Mookie Betts at top of lineup means Dodgers will be World Series underdogs no more

Bill Shaikin: Dodgers win the offseason with one swing by acquiring superstar Mookie Betts

I get the feeling that if this trade were to fail for the lack of one prospect there could be a little blow back
from the guy who might question the Dodger's committment to winning
or the guy who's tired of being a series underdog
or the guy who gave the off-season win to the Dodgers for acquiring Betts.

Or they may laud Friedman's astute and precise measure of value, or his steely resolve in not paying more than $0.50 on the $ and sticking to his guns as he passes on getting Betts, or cheer his courage to ignore the madding crowd who can almost taste that elusive WS championship.
 

Cellar-Door

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I cited the source for the $24mm in my post. He is estimating $23mm for same this year. Cot's is estimating $22.43mm this year, so the number is in the ballpark. Obviously, I cannot respond to the "ownership apologists" as to their sources.

Price cannot be traded after this year without his consent, as his 10/5 rights kick in.


Workman was not in my calculation, as he will be a free agent.

Of course, it can be done, especially if JDM exercises his opt-out. However it's done, the team will have major holes.
Which is all the more reason to note that while trading Mookie is the easiest way to get under the CBT, it is also an indication of very poor planning on the part of the Red Sox. They shelled out 47M a year to 2 players last offseason, then they didn't make any moves last year during a disastrous season. If you've come to the realization that Price needs to go, and Mookie is how you get rid of him, why not last deadline? What did they gain? Because what they lost is flexibility with Price, and value from trading 1.5 years of Mookie instead of 1.
 

amfox1

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Which is all the more reason to note that while trading Mookie is the easiest way to get under the CBT, it is also an indication of very poor planning on the part of the Red Sox. They shelled out 47M a year to 2 players last offseason, then they didn't make any moves last year during a disastrous season. If you've come to the realization that Price needs to go, and Mookie is how you get rid of him, why not last deadline? What did they gain? Because what they lost is flexibility with Price, and value from trading 1.5 years of Mookie instead of 1.
You have stated succinctly why DD is no longer the GM of the RS. Also note that on July 30, BOS was only 2.5 games out of the 2nd WC, so a trade of Betts and/or Price at that time would have received much more vitriol from this message board.
 

Cellar-Door

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You have stated succinctly why DD is no longer the GM of the RS.
True, but ownership signed off on those deals, and could just as easily have put out the "get under the tax" mandate during last season as waiting until now. Yes DD probably screwed up, but.... ownership obviously did not give him a long-term plan/goal, and approved the mis-steps all along the way.

The best argument that Henry screwed up isn't.... Henry is being cheap. It's that Henry waffled his way through everything post-WS, he didn't make a decision on what he wanted long term from the team, and is now trying to reverse course much too late.
 

Ed Hillel

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Bring Mookie back now and watch him get showered with affection by Boston. Would actually be cool to see.
That’ll be cool...until he walks away from 325 million dollars the Sox offer him and the Sox get a meager comp pick.
 

amfox1

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True, but ownership signed off on those deals, and could just as easily have put out the "get under the tax" mandate during last season as waiting until now. Yes DD probably screwed up, but.... ownership obviously did not give him a long-term plan/goal, and approved the mis-steps all along the way.

The best argument that Henry screwed up isn't.... Henry is being cheap. It's that Henry waffled his way through everything post-WS, he didn't make a decision on what he wanted long term from the team, and is now trying to reverse course much too late.
No doubt. Clearly, ownership shares in the blame for the payroll issues.
 

54thMA

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This thread is just getting started. If we can make a billion and seventy two page thread on the old ezboard for Cabin Mirror (before he became a scoreboard celebrity), just imagine what we can accomplish for Mookie Betts, David Price and whatever island of misfit toys returns the Sox will ultimately get in return for them.
Nobody wants a Charlie in the box.
 
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