Betts/Price to LA for Verdugo/Jeter Downs/TBA

Status
Not open for further replies.

gingerbreadmann

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2008
742
This kind of reminds me of the Pats trading Chandler Jones and Jamie Collins while keeping Dont’a. Not because they were Mookie level, but 2 years ago we had both Mookie, JBJ and Xander all on the verge of getting expensive. The assumption was Xander was gone because of Boras.

instead we kept him and likely JBJ(for now) and traded the one I expected to keep
There is no salary cap in baseball. There is no excuse for being cheap. We're supposed to believe that this guy who has a NASCAR team as a toy is up against some financial hardship? Own your mistakes and pay the guys who deserve it. Especially when JBJ and X are anything but cost-prohibitive.
 

CoffeeNerdness

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 6, 2012
4,585
And if Mookie ages like Boggs did, the Sox will have dodged a massive bullet by not signing him to a mega deal.
Gonna go out on a limb here and say that Mookie isn't going to age like the guy who would drink 60 Miller Lites on cross country plane flights.
 

DeadlySplitter

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 20, 2015
21,563
Absolutely not the same reaction. People were packing Kyrie's bags and everyone knew Al was on the back 9. Not even close.
Spinning this a bit, but some people are happy to pack Price's bags, and Mookie could well be on the back 9 soon.
 

Tyrone Biggums

nfl meets tri-annually at a secret country mansion
SoSH Member
Aug 15, 2006
6,424
Absolutely. Much rather see if we can get Springer at 6/180 than mookie at 12/420.
I can see Springer sliding into at least a Part time DH role halfway through and staying healthy for the length of such a deal
Ehhh lets see how Springer does when he doesn't know a fastball is coming down the middle of the plate.

I'm stunned how many people are happy to see Price go. He is a good pitcher. Yes you probably hated the guy but 2018 does not happen without him.
 

Drek717

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 23, 2003
2,540
I guess that is right. if you would value Price as worth a 3/48 contract right now or better this part is a net negative.
Price has been a roughly 2 WAR (last three years 1.5, 2.4, 2.3) guy with the Red Sox. Assuming $9M per WAR he's worth about $18M next season. So if the Sox are paying about half they're effectively subsidizing Price down to roughly market rate.

But that ignores the fact that he's 34 and after this season would have 10/5 no trade coverage. Maybe Price is still a solid 2 WAR guy in his late 30's, but seems like a big risk to take when they would then also be unable to even move him if they needed to.

The dodgers killed this trade. Why didn't they wait until the season? There would be more teams looking to trade.

In 2003, you think the Red Sox wouldn't have traded Hanley Ramirez and whatever the equivalent is for Maeda (for a prospect like Colby Lewis) for Pujols or A-Rod? Even if it was only for a half-season?

Baseball is a crazy game. What if SD is in contention? Or someone desperate to get that elusive title, like Cleveland or the Brewers?
What if Price was posting a 4.50 ERA mid-season? Could he be moved or would they now be locked into that the next three years?

What if the Dodgers were crushing and didn't need Betts? What if Verdugo goes out and hits like he's clearly capable of, a mid-.800's OPS with high value defense, looking like a 3-4 WAR guy himself?

Setting all that aside, the longer into the season they wait the more likely they are that trading Betts still wouldn't get them under the cap, which defeats the whole purpose.

Alternatively, if they only wanted to get under the tax, couldn't they have done that by just trading Price (and JBJ if that wasn't quite enough)?
I'd suspect that:
1. JBJ has limited market value at $11M.
2. Price on his own at a 50% subsidy would be something they'd likely have done sooner if they could have found a taker.
3. Those two combined would have put them just barely at the line, if even over it.

Maeda is stupidly cheap. 12.5 total the next 4 years. Graterol is cheap too but has 9.2 IP in the majors and There Is No Such Thing As a Pitching Prospect.
TINSTAPP is a stupid philosophy. Pitching prospects break at a higher rate, sure. A really good way to never have a good young pitcher though is to adhere to TINSTAPP to the point where you never have any worthwhile pitching prospects. Maeda is going to be 32 this season, is a league average pitcher in a pitcher friendly division, and isn't even reliably for 150 IP in a season.


Here's what Bloom did: In an off-season where every trade rumor about Betts started with a caveat that the other team didn't want to trade any of their top tier prospects, specifically with SD not wanting to move anyone considered a top 50 prospect nationally, Bloom got Verdugo, an outfielder ranked #35 by BA and MLB and #19 by BP to start last season, and Graterol, an SP/RP ranked #55/#68/#33 by the same publications to start last season. Neither one did anything to meaningfully diminish their prospect status, other than Verdugo barely passing one year of service time.

Verdugo is 23 with 5 years of control. Graterol is 21 and only has a few weeks of service time, plus options remaining.

Losing Betts sucks. He's an all-timer, as likely an HOFer as anyone in the game today other than Trout, but he made it real clear he was going to test the market.

The Sox needed to get under the cap this off-season or lock themselves into a pain spiral. Not for John Henry's wallet but for their draft picks over the next few years. This isn't 5 or 10 years ago where we could just splash the pot on draft day. John Henry and co. did plenty of that when they could. Now if we want to build a competitive team we need a competitive farm, and we can't do that giving up 10 spots in the first round every single year.

Solving that problem while getting the next best thing to a Mookie Betts to replace Betts and a fireballing pitcher who has starter's upside but if nothing else has a floor of late game shutdown guy is, overall, pretty damn good.

It sucks that Dombrowksi's focus on the ML roster and willingness to sell out the farm is coming home to roost, but I'm pretty sure we all enjoyed that 2018 WS win quite a bit. Losing a farewell tour for Betts, in exchange for one of the best OF prospects in all of baseball just as he's ML ready, is the price for that.

The argument can even be made that the Sox are better positioned to pursue signing Betts next year because of this. They'll reset the cap, have half of Price's deal off the books, and will open up an OF spot when Bradley hits FA this winter (not to mention freeing up $11M). If the free market deal Betts wants aligns with the Sox ability to pay him, I'd imagine they'll be all for it. Staying the course would have guaranteed they'd be priced out next winter. That doesn't seem very likely as I suspect the Dodgers will spare no expense to retain him if he plays well, but stranger things have happened.
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
16,937
The argument that they got something for a player they weren't going to re-sign is fine, so long as you also acknowledge that they weren't going to re-sign him because they didn't want to spend the money. This deal is about making a financial decision, and then moving forward from there in terms of maximizing return.
 

brandonchristensen

mad photochops
SoSH Member
Feb 4, 2012
26,145
There is no salary cap in baseball. There is no excuse for being cheap. We're supposed to believe that this guy who has a NASCAR team as a toy is up against some financial hardship? Own your mistakes and pay the guys who deserve it. Especially when JBJ and X are anything but cost-prohibitive.
No salary cap, no, but there is penalties that affect your ability to continue building the franchise.

The Yankees did it a few years back and had a lot of players step up (Judge) so you never felt it.
 
Jul 31, 2005
34
I don't care about the luxury tax. I don't know why any of you do either. Draft picks are assets, but Mookie Betts is a bigger asset than draft picks. Unless the owners' secret plan is to get under the luxury tax so they can pay Mookie as a free agent, then this is a cash grab by the owners, who are swimming in money. In terms of early career WAR, Boggs is a good comp to Mookie. The big difference to me as a fan is Mookie is a great but also likable player. It's refreshing to root for a world-class talent who actually seems like a good dude. Boggs was always a complete douche.
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
16,937
No salary cap, no, but there is penalties that affect your ability to continue building the franchise.

The Yankees did it a few years back and had a lot of players step up (Judge) so you never felt it.
They also planned for it, so that rather than trading away their best players, they in fact added Stanton going into their tax reset year.
 

OCD SS

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Not sure Price was "worth" the money, but he put up a 3.84 era for Boston and was absolute frigging NAILS in the 2018 playoffs to help win a WS. If you had told me that they'd get that out of him for four years and then he'd be gone, I'd have taken that.
My opinion is that thats kind of what the FO expected: I think they figured he’d opt out, and the previous spending freeze was a bit of a surprise …
 

RedOctober3829

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
45,671
deep inside Guido territory
Brusdar Graterol
Age: 21
Graterol, the No. 60 prospect on the BA Top 100, immediately becomes the hardest thrower in the Red Sox organization. He averaged 99 mph in the majors last September and postseason after receiving a big league callup. His fastball is hard and heavy. He throws more sinkers than four-seamers up in the zone. His 88-90 mph slider needs to get a little more consistent, but it has a chance to give him a pair of plus pitches thanks to how hard it is thrown. Graterol missed time last year with a sore pitching shoulder, but his velocity was fine when he returned and he pitched his way onto the Twins postseason roster. Minnesota had already announced that he would pitch in the team’s bullpen to start 2020, but the Red Sox will have a decision to make. Graterol does have some effort to his delivery, but he throws strikes with average control and he has a big frame. His upside will become higher if he can throw 150+ innings as a starter, and his likelihood of being at least a useful reliever is quite high.

 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
12,376
I don't care about the luxury tax. I don't know why any of you do either. Draft picks are assets, but Mookie Betts is a bigger asset than draft picks. Unless the owners' secret plan is to get under the luxury tax so they can pay Mookie as a free agent, then this is a cash grab by the owners, who are swimming in money. In terms of early career WAR, Boggs is a good comp to Mookie. The big difference to me as a fan is Mookie is a great but also likable player. It's refreshing to root for a world-class talent who actually seems like a good dude. Boggs was always a complete douche.
Yeah, it's pretty easy to spend other people's money.
 

amRadio

lurker
Feb 7, 2019
370
the downside on Graterol is he profiles more as a reliever. but that's technically the most likely result of every prospect

Bloom chose his pitcher, let's see if he's right
Graterol averaged 5.1 IP per start in AA as a 19 year old in 2018. Put up very good peripheral numbers to boot. I'm not sure he profiles as a reliever if he can move beyond the early career health issues.
 

gingerbreadmann

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2008
742
No salary cap, no, but there is penalties that affect your ability to continue building the franchise.

The Yankees did it a few years back and had a lot of players step up (Judge) so you never felt it.
Yeah, they did a great job cutting dead weight and restocking the system. That much I agree with.

It's hard to believe that the 2nd best position player in baseball is someone who is, on the net, costing a penalty to the team regardless of anything else going on with the franchise. The cost is only relative to what the owner is willing to eat when he makes mistakes. The part that's hard to swallow is how far this hand was from actually being forced.

For example - do you really think we are likely to re-sign Betts now like the Yankees did with Chapman? That ship has almost definitely sailed.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 24, 2002
33,898
From the piece on Verdugo in that article:

While Verdugo’s talent is undeniable, his maturity and effort have long drawn scorn from coaches, scouts and even his own teammates, such as when Rich Hill harangued him in full view of reporters in the clubhouse. Verdugo will replace Betts as the Red Sox’s everyday right fielder, and his makeup will be put to the test in Boston.
Playing in Boston and being perceived as Mookie Betts' replacement is a tough spot for a kid with supposed maturity issues. That said, the fans and media should be very patient with him.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

Found no thrill on Blueberry Hill
Gold Supporter
SoSH Member
Sep 9, 2008
29,318
AZ
Yeah, they did a great job cutting dead weight and restocking the system. That much I agree with.

It's hard to believe that the 2nd best position player in baseball is someone who is, on the net, costing a penalty to the team regardless of anything else going on with the franchise. The cost is only relative to what the owner is willing to eat when he makes mistakes. The part that's hard to swallow is how far this hand was from actually being forced.

For example - do you really think we are likely to re-sign Betts now like the Yankees did with Chapman? That ship has almost definitely sailed.
Unless he signs an extension with the Dodgers the Sox are going to have the same chance to get Mookie beyond 2020 as they would have had if they hadn’t traded him.
 

fairlee76

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 9, 2005
3,213
jp
Spinning this a bit, but some people are happy to pack Price's bags, and Mookie could well be on the back 9 soon.
Hindsight being 20/20 and all that, but it sure looks now that Al was on the back 2 when the Celts let him walk.

Losing Betts sucks - he is the one of a small handful of super relatable (who would not love to bowl with him?!), super talented, seemingly super decent humans in pro sports. But grown men playing kids' games is huge business and, from that perspective, I suppose the Sox did what they felt they had to do.
 

Scoops Bolling

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 19, 2007
4,233
Yeah, they did a great job cutting dead weight and restocking the system. That much I agree with.

It's hard to believe that the 2nd best position player in baseball is someone who is, on the net, costing a penalty to the team regardless of anything else going on with the franchise. The cost is only relative to what the owner is willing to eat when he makes mistakes. The part that's hard to swallow is how far this hand was from actually being forced.

For example - do you really think we are likely to re-sign Betts now like the Yankees did with Chapman? That ship has almost definitely sailed.
Yes, I think we have as good a chance if not better than we did before. Betts was always going to sign with the highest bidder. Resetting the luxury tax penalty this year makes offering that kind of contract this offseason a lot more viable than if we'd have to pay $1.50 for every $1 we gave Mookie, which is exactly what the case would be without this move. Actually, that may understate it given we might also hit the surtax for being at least $20 million over the threshold, so make that $1.62 for every $1 we would have given Mookie.
 

Savin Hillbilly

loves the secret sauce
SoSH Member
Jul 10, 2007
18,781
The wrong side of the bridge....
Jesus, I get off the internet for three hours and this happens.

I have a feeling some people are going to put out a contract on me for mentioning this, but the good ol' trade simulator app says that Bloom is cleaning up here, and the Dodgers are taking a bath (Twins are mildly overpaying, which makes sense when you trade future for now). That certainly jibes with the big Price subsidy.
 

nolasoxfan

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 11, 2004
4,127
Displaced
From the piece on Verdugo in that article:



Playing in Boston and being perceived as Mookie Betts' replacement is a tough spot for a kid with supposed maturity issues. That said, the fans and media should be very patient with him.
You expect fans and media to be patient with a guy that might have been involved in a sexual assault of a minor and is replacing Mookie Betts?

edit: Apologies if I’m getting the story wrong, but the Verdugo thread has links to articles that don’t paint a very good picture of this young man.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

Found no thrill on Blueberry Hill
Gold Supporter
SoSH Member
Sep 9, 2008
29,318
AZ
If that happens, the Sox payroll right now would be around $115 in 2021 before arb raises and $96 million in 2022.
Cots has them at $137 next year and $118 the year after. Those numbers include Price at $32m. If they save $16m on Price and $19m on JD doesn’t that get them to $102m and $83m?
 

johnlos

lurker
Aug 22, 2014
11
Yeah, it's pretty easy to spend other people's money.
I get the logic from the very good post from Drek717 above, but what I don't get are all the billionaire-defenders in here. Henry has made $2.5 BILLION on the value of the franchise alone (ignoring any year-to-year profits). No one needs to defend him.
 

Lowrielicious

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 19, 2011
3,969
I don't care about the luxury tax. I don't know why any of you do either. Draft picks are assets, but Mookie Betts is a bigger asset than draft picks. Unless the owners' secret plan is to get under the luxury tax so they can pay Mookie as a free agent, then this is a cash grab by the owners, who are swimming in money. In terms of early career WAR, Boggs is a good comp to Mookie. The big difference to me as a fan is Mookie is a great but also likable player. It's refreshing to root for a world-class talent who actually seems like a good dude. Boggs was always a complete douche.
This theory works great assuming Mookie Betts will never age and you can keep him forever.
You need draft picks to get the Mookies.

Just be glad the redsox weren't perpetually above the cap with pick penalties in place back in 2008/9/10 otherwise Mookie likely never pulls on a redsox jersey.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 24, 2002
33,898
Sorry. Meter not working. Carry on.
It wasn't clear but JCizzle is correct. Were it not for the story that Laddie posted, I might almost feel sorry for this kid. Talk about walking into a lions den...

I mean, CHB's column on Verdugo and the trade has already written itself. The galling thing is that it will be hard to disagree with him.
 

fairlee76

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 9, 2005
3,213
jp
So, I’ve been doing some reading up on Verdugo in the other thread. Is this a guy we want wearing the laundry?
I was just over there as well and read the blog post. That, plus what @DeJesus Built My Hotrod posted, makes me think this will make it easier to invest less time in the Sox than I normally would. But I gave up on the Celts last year (all-in this season with NBA TV and watching most every game) so I am much less about the laundry as I get older and much more about how fun it is rooting for a group of guys to succeed.

Also, there are few things more valuable to me than free time during the summer months here in CO. Choosing between an after-work dog hike and watching a mediocre baseball team is no choice at all.
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Dope
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
50,930
For example - do you really think we are likely to re-sign Betts now like the Yankees did with Chapman? That ship has almost definitely sailed.
The situation is the same, but it's a lot easier to get a guy back on a 5/86 deal than on a 12/420 one (or wherever the Mookie contract ends up being).
 

CoffeeNerdness

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 6, 2012
4,585
Since prospect impressions are often just other people's words on a screen, here's some actual in game footage of Brusdar.

Here's his debut. He looks (rightfully) pretty jazzed up and rushes his delivery. Still reaching an easy looking 100mph:

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JCldrOaldpU


Here's a selection of pitches that are certainly impressive/intriguing. Bury sliders in on Lindor is just nice:

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fUS7pJsln_4


Def skews a little on the thicc side. Hopefully he can shed a few lbs.
 

DeadlySplitter

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 20, 2015
21,563
Jesus, I get off the internet for three hours and this happens.

I have a feeling some people are going to put out a contract on me for mentioning this, but the good ol' trade simulator app says that Bloom is cleaning up here, and the Dodgers are taking a bath (Twins are mildly overpaying, which makes sense when you trade future for now). That certainly jibes with the big Price subsidy.
mind posting the values?
 

johnnywayback

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 8, 2004
1,215
How can you say this...we have no idea if Mookie would have accepted, say, 10/360, because the Sox never offered it, because they were dead-set on trading Mookie.
They were so dead-set on trading Mookie that they made repeated attempts to sign him to a long-term contract? And we absolutely know that Mookie would not have accepted 10/360, because he kept saying he wanted to go to free agency. The only suggestion we have that he was even willing to engage at all is Merloni's report that he wanted 12/420. If, despite all the reporting, he had been willing to accept 10/360, and the Red Sox were offering 10/300, they'd have found common ground.
 

chawson

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
1,940
Reminds me a little of the Austin Meadows/Tyler Glasnow haul the Rays got.

Different situation of course, but I trust in Bloom’s evaluation, particularly of pitchers.
 

OurF'ingCity

Well-Known Member
Gold Supporter
SoSH Member
Apr 22, 2016
4,663
New York City
They were so dead-set on trading Mookie that they made repeated attempts to sign him to a long-term contract? And we absolutely know that Mookie would not have accepted 10/360, because he kept saying he wanted to go to free agency. The only suggestion we have that he was even willing to engage at all is Merloni's report that he wanted 12/420. If, despite all the reporting, he had been willing to accept 10/360, and the Red Sox were offering 10/300, they'd have found common ground.
They made one attempt to sign him and it was a ridiculous lowball offer no more realistic than Mookie’s 12/420.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.