Best Rookie QB today
- Thread starter SJMDownunder
- Start date
now the first 4 games nix sucked
but the last 7 other than the LAC game has played well
after week 5 nix has been the best rookie qb this season
he went toe to toe with KC qb and if not for a 1-100 fluke wins in arrowhead
mahomes told payton after that game u got a star qb
right now if u gave the bears owners truth serum Nix would had been the 1st pick would been funny to me nix is payton mancrush
williams 2nd daniels 3rd
J J no worse than 6th
micheh p 13 th
if denver turns into what NO was 2017-2020 starting in 2025
we have robert kraft to thank for it
I love ya, but there's no way on earth in a re-draft the Bears take Nix. Zero chance.
From the article:
He's Jimmy Rollins. He piles up 190-200 hits, but it takes 775 ABs to get there.
It's 2021 Mac Jones all over again. Super protected by a great defense and the play calling, good portion of the production coming in blowouts and bottom third in efficiency/EPA in game context neutral situations.
good point but again the bears ownship only took willams because he was 1 on everyone board and they throuht he wouild be mahomes day 1 nix fits their image in what they want in a qb the bears are ciny level cheap i read a book about the 85 bears and their aftermath and their ownship was cheap on their super bowl rings plus wanted ditka out after 87 but did not want the blowback
Taking a guy because he's "#1 on everyone's board" is generally a good strategy. In a world where every team had to choose either Williams and Nix and couldn't trade down and get assets, 100% of NFL teams would have picked Williams.
I'll buy Nix + assets > Williams, but not Nix > Williams. Not now.
If the Bears turn him into Ryan Leaf, we can chat. But the actual PICK was correct.
But it's football, and a fan excited by his QB is a good thing, so I'm happy for you.
I'll buy Nix + assets > Williams, but not Nix > Williams. Not now.
If the Bears turn him into Ryan Leaf, we can chat. But the actual PICK was correct.
But it's football, and a fan excited by his QB is a good thing, so I'm happy for you.
Which order would they go in a redraft, knowing what we know today?
Certainly Daniels has been the best performer of the four who have played a lot (Williams, Daniels, Maye, Nix). I haven't seen enough of him to know how he is doing it though. How dependent has he been on his running game? Has he shown he can go through his progressions and make plays in and out of structure as Maye has? Does he go first in a redraft?
WIlliams may have the best physical tools, but he is clearly way behind Maye in terms of processing and decision making.
Maye has basically shown every tool and skill one wants in a QB even working with a poor offense (something Williams has also had to do).
Nix seems to be an effective role player who has not shown every skill you wan in a QB.
I think the top 3 stays the top 3, but there is at least a chance that Chicago opts for Daniels or Maye at #1. I assume Washington takes Daniels if he is there, but I could see them going Maye or Williams at #2.
If the redraft were today, I could see things going exactly the same way they did, or I could see the Pats winding up with Williams at #3.
Certainly Daniels has been the best performer of the four who have played a lot (Williams, Daniels, Maye, Nix). I haven't seen enough of him to know how he is doing it though. How dependent has he been on his running game? Has he shown he can go through his progressions and make plays in and out of structure as Maye has? Does he go first in a redraft?
WIlliams may have the best physical tools, but he is clearly way behind Maye in terms of processing and decision making.
Maye has basically shown every tool and skill one wants in a QB even working with a poor offense (something Williams has also had to do).
Nix seems to be an effective role player who has not shown every skill you wan in a QB.
I think the top 3 stays the top 3, but there is at least a chance that Chicago opts for Daniels or Maye at #1. I assume Washington takes Daniels if he is there, but I could see them going Maye or Williams at #2.
If the redraft were today, I could see things going exactly the same way they did, or I could see the Pats winding up with Williams at #3.
Williams will never be a top 5 QB. I'm very comfortable saying this. He's been playing competitive football for a decade. There's clueless, and then there's whatever the fuck that last stretch of football was.
Combine that with the 5-10 completely erratic throws throughout the game, his inability to navigate a collapsing pocket, and the deer in the headlights look the second he has to move past his first read? He's like a less consistent, more athletic Jacoby Brissett.
He has all the physical tools, but he can't process a football field, before or after the snap.
"It's early in his career." Cool. I'm willing to go out on a limb. Remember when Mac Jones looked broken? He looks like that, only he looks effortless when he misses his throws.
Combine that with the 5-10 completely erratic throws throughout the game, his inability to navigate a collapsing pocket, and the deer in the headlights look the second he has to move past his first read? He's like a less consistent, more athletic Jacoby Brissett.
He has all the physical tools, but he can't process a football field, before or after the snap.
"It's early in his career." Cool. I'm willing to go out on a limb. Remember when Mac Jones looked broken? He looks like that, only he looks effortless when he misses his throws.
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I'm right there with you, I wasn't a fan coming out of college and he's done nothing to convince me otherwise. He's not progressing
I don’t evaluate college QBs in any detail. That ND game he was in bothered me a lot and I haven’t seen anything yet that makes me unbothered. Sick athlete but something is missing so far. Hopefully the next coach can help him. Maye looks better to me.
I'm not sold on Williams, but it feels like a weird day to be reading multiple rants about the kid. The Bears had one god forsaken first down in the first half and he ended up with 250+ yard and 3 TDs versus a quality defense. He's coached by a bumbling idiot and his OL is Pats level bad if not worse. He broke the rookie record for most passes without an INT today and they nearly stole the game.
His offensive line is really nowhere near as bad as the media portrays, at least if today was any indication. He worked his way into at least 1 sack, and multiple sacks saw Williams turn into a statue. Praising Williams for not throwing picks is the same as praising Brissett for standing tall in the pocket. Not throwing the ball is fine until it becomes a defining trait.
Eh kinda sounds like you just have an axe to grind tbh. Their line is terrible and blaming Williams when he was getting crushed by guys who were completely unblocked is odd. He's had some horrible games this year and I'm not sure he can hit his ceiling with his accuracy but he was pretty good today. Especially considering how grim the first half was.
I have zero axes to grind. This was the first full game I watched him play this season. Simply relaying back what I saw.
I guess you missed their game versus the Pats where the much-maligned defense racked up 9 sacks. That's 1/3 of their total for this entire season (yes, the Pats have 27 sacks in 12 games).
Then you’re blind. His OL is terrible and the idea he’s a “statue” back there beggars belief. He’s certainly imperfect, but he’s also got some sick skills. A comparison to Brissett is incomprehensible.
Williams is basically Bryce Young from last year/early this year, but with more physical ability. He looks lost out there a lot, and he doesn't have the coaching staff to overcome it. Eberflus should be shown the door after that game because that was coaching malpractice to not realize your franchise QB can't get his shit together in that moment.
When the QB gets sacked by someone coming at him untouched I think one can’t really blame the QB.
I think he means by how Williams is slow too process his reads like Brissett rather than physically like a statue. That’s how I took the comparison to Mac Jones too.
This is not a general rule. Depends on protection and numbers. A lot of times if a blitzer comes untouched(6vs 5 blockers) it is specifically on the qb.
You get it. He's too busy being angry that I don't love a guy that looks like shit apparently.
daniels williams nix j j harbaugh loved him had LAC not spent 300 million on herbert he would been the 4th or 5th maye wouild been no lower than 6 overall to nyg and as high as 3rd pinex jr 13 th to vegas
Danleis = L Jackson c williams mahomes with no coaching maye j herbert/j allen with no coaching best thing kraft can do is fire mayo after 2024 and hire a sf/hou type on off coach J J alex smith nix mac jones meets drew brees meets tyrod tayloe long story short as long as peyton is there baby drew brees when he leaves mac jones if he was a finish pix B Leftwich
if CHI ne get better coaches this class will have a 1983 impact
So what? I've really enjoyed the measuring sticks for his amazing game.
"He had some good plays."
"He's a rookie."
"The most passing TDs allowed by the Lions."
Over the course of the game, he wasn't fucking good. You're all wrong. That's all.
Cool. He's got some sick skills. Making 15 bad plays and 5 awesome ones seems like a recipe for success.
"BUt heS a RoOkiE!!1!"
There's no reason to continue the conversation. You'll all give him rope until the media says he sucks. I'm just getting ahead of the storylines.
You know what? You're right. I'm not sure why I even post in this forum anymore. It's, without sarcasm, one of the largest gatherings of autistic people this side of autismspeaks.org.
Fuck it.
Why did this devolve so quickly?
Nothing controversial in thinking Williams will never be a top 10 QB. But in taking that position, you should expect some pushback.
There are a ton of reasons Williams makes some bad plays. One, he is a rookie. Not any different than some mistakes Maye is making. Except, Williams is not turning the ball over like Maye is and just broke the rookie record for number of passes without an INT. That's not nothing.
Two, Chicago is on their 10th or 11th OL combo this season, similar to the Patriots. They have a massive amount of injuries there. As mentioned, the Pats game should be an indicator of how bad their line has been. 9 sacks in that game for the Pats. He simply doesn't have the time to make better plays, in or out of structure.
Three, there is coaching and that's been covered extensively.
As terrible as the Bears offense was in the first half, they played very well in the second half. Why discount their opponent? The Lions are the best team in the league and they were in the game with a chance to tie and then Eberflus decided to get himself fired.
Making that Williams declaration after watching one Bear's game is silly. When discounting their OL, his lack of turnovers, making plays all rookie QBs make, and the coaching disaster in the process of making that declaration, well...you see where I'm going.
You may end up being correct and he will never be good. I expect, however, his reads, progressions, and setting the protection will get better with better OL play. At times, he looks lost (you might say he looks like a rookie) out there. Also, at times, he looks like he will be good (like the 2nd half against the Lions). I'm not sold on him yet either, but there are a number of non-Williams factors to consider.
As far as the conversation here, do better than your devolution.
Nothing controversial in thinking Williams will never be a top 10 QB. But in taking that position, you should expect some pushback.
There are a ton of reasons Williams makes some bad plays. One, he is a rookie. Not any different than some mistakes Maye is making. Except, Williams is not turning the ball over like Maye is and just broke the rookie record for number of passes without an INT. That's not nothing.
Two, Chicago is on their 10th or 11th OL combo this season, similar to the Patriots. They have a massive amount of injuries there. As mentioned, the Pats game should be an indicator of how bad their line has been. 9 sacks in that game for the Pats. He simply doesn't have the time to make better plays, in or out of structure.
Three, there is coaching and that's been covered extensively.
As terrible as the Bears offense was in the first half, they played very well in the second half. Why discount their opponent? The Lions are the best team in the league and they were in the game with a chance to tie and then Eberflus decided to get himself fired.
Making that Williams declaration after watching one Bear's game is silly. When discounting their OL, his lack of turnovers, making plays all rookie QBs make, and the coaching disaster in the process of making that declaration, well...you see where I'm going.
You may end up being correct and he will never be good. I expect, however, his reads, progressions, and setting the protection will get better with better OL play. At times, he looks lost (you might say he looks like a rookie) out there. Also, at times, he looks like he will be good (like the 2nd half against the Lions). I'm not sold on him yet either, but there are a number of non-Williams factors to consider.
As far as the conversation here, do better than your devolution.
The issue I have is that this forum has become very comfortable using media talking points or hearing something and simply latching onto it as fact. I think your post is a pretty good example of that, frankly.
I've heard plenty in the media about him setting that record, so it must correlate to some pretty good rookie QBs! Let's see...CJ Stroud? Sure, OK. Kyler Murray? Ehh....maybe. Derek Carr? Oh...no thank you. When presented with context, its a list of some good and some bad rookie QBs. So...it kind of is nothing. At least compared to the list of rookie QBs with the most TDs without an interception. Jake Locker, Kyle Allen, and Desmond Ridder are powerhouses.
Or maybe it just means he's overly cautious. Which would be fair, because of your second point:
That damn offensive line. They aren't giving him the time he needs! Only 3.01 seconds per throw! That's *checks ranking* only the 4th most time in the league! Surrounded by other atrocious lines like Baltimore, Washington, Denver, Minnesota, Arizona, and Kansas City. All of whom have great sack numbers...except Chicago, of course. Its also worth noting that PFF - whether you like them or not - rank Chicagos offensive line as 6th best in pass blocking, with all of those same teams previously listed.
Either the Chicago line is the outlier of all outliers, or maybe the QB needs to make better throws and quicker reads. It probably wouldn't be so bad if he could actually make a quick read and throw. When having to throw with less than 2.5 seconds, good old Caleb has the 4th worst completion percentage and the 2nd lowest yards per attempt in the NFL. Under pressure, he's throwing it shorter than everyone else and somehow doing so less accurately than almost everyone else. Impressive.
But it really isn't Calebs fault because of your third point:
Its absolutely the coaches fault. They just can't put together an offense that can score. When the team needs solid play designs in the red zone, the coaching just keeps letting Caleb down. Thats why their redzone percentage is only *checks rankings again* 67%. Third best in the league! The damn coaches just have no idea how to design an offense for Williams!
When the field gets short and teams need well designed plays, Chicago has performed extremely well. The top 6 teams in points per game rank 1st, 2nd, 4th, 5th, 6th, and 7th in redzone percentage. Chicago is 3rd in redzone %...23rd in PPG.
You could also say that having high-end skill players in tight corners like the redzone are helpful, too. It just so happens that Williams has one of - if not the - best skill rooms in football. But I don't hear people talking about that, I suppose because it doesn't fit in with the other talking points.
I've considered them. And I replied to them above.
I had no idea what to expect when looking up Chicagos offensive line performance. I know what my eyes told me in the two games I saw him in (yes, I also watched the Pats game, just wasn't as tuned into Caleb as I was last week), and frankly it lines up almost exactly with what the advanced stats say:
Caleb can't perform under pressure, so teams blitz the shit out of him.
Fin.
Lazy analyst's will say "the line sucks, they give up a ton of sacks!!", but ignore the fact that teams have blitzed Williams the second most of any NFL QB because he sucks when getting blitzed. The Bears have some of the best WR's in the NFL that can win their quick 1on1 battles. They also supposedly have a horrendous offensive line that should be losing their individual matchups without defenses blitzing. Despite this, teams are blitzing the shit out of Williams because he often times freezes - the Brissett special, as I like to call it - or rushes into short, inaccurate throws. The line gives him time (4th most in the league), but when he's under pressure, his accuracy sucks despite throwing to his outlets or quick reads.
It surprises me that on a board full of Patriot fans who previously watched Mac Jones do the same fucking thing - and are currently watching fellow rookie Drake Maye make a crappy offensive line and a shit WR room look cromulent - that people are going out of their way to blame anyone but the guy throwing the ball.
So...rant over. Maybe everyone will be right and Williams will be a top 5 QB someday (which was the goalpost I set). But you'd expect with those kind of expectations people wouldn't be so quick to blame everyone else on the team while shrugging away Williams results thus far as, "rookie learning curve".
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I appreciate your thoughtful response. Thanks for taking the time to further make your case and engage in this conversation in a thought provoking, mature way.
I still hate you though.
I still hate you though.
Frankly, I have no idea what the media says about anything, because the only sports media I'm even remotely adjacently cognizant of is what folks link on this site. I'm too busy watching the games every week and every night throughout the week to read the media's regurgitation of talking points.
That said, this post is honestly a classic example of why there is no substitute for watching the games because these statistics are trash without context. Time to throw is such a misleading stat. First of all, it doesn't include sacks and isn't based on how quickly the pressure gets there. You know why guys like Mahomes, Murray, Caleb Williams, Lamar, Daniels (guys who also have lots of "time to throw") end up high on that list? Because they're mobile. That stat works against a mobile QB. If a guy is facing pressure immediately, and manages to get out of the pocket and extend the play, the "time to throw" number goes up, when in reality, it should be going down. It's also why the list of QB's who are sacked the most usually also end up on that same list, because they're mobile and like to try to extend plays rather than throw it away.
The Bears offensive line is fucking atrocious. They can't even run the ball. Two years ago, Swift averaged 5.5ypc in Detroit, then 4.6ypc last year in Philly and he's at 3.9ypc in Chicago.
You then go on to cite red zone efficiency as a sarcastic way of saying it's not the coaches fault, which is so intellectually dishonest or you didn't think anyone would check.
The reason the Bears appear to be so efficient in the red zone is because they are 2nd to last at getting to the red zone (only team worse than them is the Browns). To give an idea of how much noise is in this stat you just cited, the Bears have only had 27 red zone opportunities all season. The Commanders/Bills/Ravens/Lions are all over 50, with Washington leading at 55. The Bears are 18/27 at converting in the red zone. The teams above them are, checks notes, 39/52, 27/38, 34/51 and 32/58. Maybe, just maybe the reason they rank so low in PPG and so high in red zone efficiency isn't because of their now-fired awesome coach and bad QB, it's because they can't get to the fucking red zone, so the sample size is a joke.
Advanced stats. There's nothing advanced about any of this shit. It's using figures to to come to a preconceived notion based on what your eyes saw from one game.
And frankly, I have no idea if he'll be a top 5 guy ever, but shrugging away the shit surrounding him and the rookie learning curve while citing obviously useless statistics isn't the right way to frame it. I think he's definitely looked worse than I expected he would, particularly with the skill talent around him, but nothing surprises me in today's NFL when it comes to rookie QB's. I'm not even sure the kid has played in the cold weather since high school.
If only there were places to see the relevant plays such as sacks. Looks like a combination of holding the ball too long sometimes, a lack of guys being open others, several complete and total breakdowns on the line, and blitzing being very effective against a terrible line with RBs that stink at picking up the blitz.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=el63B5eqF84
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=el63B5eqF84
I mean, I will gladly pull out a stopwatch, but it appears to me that nearly 2/3 of those sacks involved holding the ball too long. I'll time them if people think I'm crazy.
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Cool. Now explain away his bottom of the league completion % and yards per attempt while throwing under pressure.
Weird. It's almost like I wasn't talking about running the football and was only talking about pass protection.
Do we want to talk about Williams and the pass protection, or do we want to talk about whatever you want to talk about?
It's fucking football. It's all SSS. If having enough sample size is your barometer, then dont cite anything short of 5 years of stats.
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He is a rookie with a shitty OL while not turning the ball over. Lots of throw aways or passes that can't be picked off. The not turning the ball over thing is very valuable.
Half the OL's job is to run block too, yeah? Similar to pass block rates, run block rates also tell a story about a poor OL.
12 games is enough for you to declare he will never be a top 5 guy despite the number of very real, rational reasons others feel differently, but when others use 12 games and what the team has done on the field in those 12 games, that doesn't work for you?
Again, just by what we see of Williams after watching more than 1-2 games, there is significant disagreement in your declarative statement.
Williams is nearly in the top 10 of every QB pressure stat on pro-football-reference:
Sacks: 1rst
Blitz: 1rst
Hurried: 4th
Hits: 12th
Pressure: 2nd
Pressure %: 10th
Scrambles: 3rd
22/35 qualifying QBs have 2.2 seconds or greater PocketTime. Williams is at 2.4.
Sacks: 1rst
Blitz: 1rst
Hurried: 4th
Hits: 12th
Pressure: 2nd
Pressure %: 10th
Scrambles: 3rd
22/35 qualifying QBs have 2.2 seconds or greater PocketTime. Williams is at 2.4.
Player A: 12 games, 52% Comp, 2,074 yards, 10 TD, 12 Int, 7 fumbles, 6.46 YPA. Sacked 28 times.
Player B: 12 games, 61% Comp, 2,612 years, 14 TD, 5 Int, 3 fumbles, 6.46 YPA. Sacked 49 times.
Player A is clearly worse and playing behind a better line, right?
Player B: 12 games, 61% Comp, 2,612 years, 14 TD, 5 Int, 3 fumbles, 6.46 YPA. Sacked 49 times.
Player A is clearly worse and playing behind a better line, right?
MOAR NUMBERS:
Williams: 253/411, 61.6%, 2612 yards, 14/5 TD/INT, 86.1 rating, 378 rushing yards, 6.4 ypc, 0 TDs
Daniels: 252/362, 69.6%, 2819 yards, 15/6 TD/INT, 99.4 rating, 590 rushing yards, 5.5 ypc, 6 TDs
Maye: 172/256, 67.2%, 1696 yards, 11/8 TD/INT, 87.0 rating, 345 rushing yards, 9.1 ypc, 1 TD
Nix: 277/434, 63.8%, 2842 yards, 17/8 TD/INT, 87.9 rating, 304 rushing yards, 4.5 ypc, 4 TDs
Maye pro-rated to the average attempts of the other 3: 270/402, 67.2%, 2663 yards, 17/12 TD/INT, 87.0 rating, 542 rushing yards
Williams: 253/411, 61.6%, 2612 yards, 14/5 TD/INT, 86.1 rating, 378 rushing yards, 6.4 ypc, 0 TDs
Daniels: 252/362, 69.6%, 2819 yards, 15/6 TD/INT, 99.4 rating, 590 rushing yards, 5.5 ypc, 6 TDs
Maye: 172/256, 67.2%, 1696 yards, 11/8 TD/INT, 87.0 rating, 345 rushing yards, 9.1 ypc, 1 TD
Nix: 277/434, 63.8%, 2842 yards, 17/8 TD/INT, 87.9 rating, 304 rushing yards, 4.5 ypc, 4 TDs
Maye pro-rated to the average attempts of the other 3: 270/402, 67.2%, 2663 yards, 17/12 TD/INT, 87.0 rating, 542 rushing yards
Player A is Josh Allen in 2018. Long and short of it is this: Let's wait and see about Mayo and Wolf and the second draft instead of broken record-ing every post. Oops, we are talking about Williams. My bad.
It pains me to say that I still like Maye the best. Hope to be toasting to wasted talent for many years.