Best Rookie QB today
- Thread starter SJMDownunder
- Start date
Penix by far. Falcons starter threw 2 INTs and they lost. Pats starter throw 0 INTs and they won.
Let's keep track:
Williams: 14/29, 93 yards, 0/0 TD/INT, 15 rushing yards, 2 sacks
Daniels: 17/24, 184 yards, 0/0 TD/INT, 88 rushing yards, 2 TDs, 2 sacks
Nix: 26/42, 198 yards, 0/2 TD/INT, 35 rushing yards, 1 TD, 2 sacks
Maye/Penix: DNP
McCarthy: injured
Williams looked erratic all day--he had a few run around and keep the play alive plays, but definitely looked like a rookie. Daniels looked decent but game wasn't really all that close so don't know how that will translate in a closer game. Nix did a few things, but sub-200 yards on 42 attempts is not good.
Williams: 14/29, 93 yards, 0/0 TD/INT, 15 rushing yards, 2 sacks
Daniels: 17/24, 184 yards, 0/0 TD/INT, 88 rushing yards, 2 TDs, 2 sacks
Nix: 26/42, 198 yards, 0/2 TD/INT, 35 rushing yards, 1 TD, 2 sacks
Maye/Penix: DNP
McCarthy: injured
Williams looked erratic all day--he had a few run around and keep the play alive plays, but definitely looked like a rookie. Daniels looked decent but game wasn't really all that close so don't know how that will translate in a closer game. Nix did a few things, but sub-200 yards on 42 attempts is not good.
Daniels looked bad early, stuff opened up when they were getting blown out, which he generally took advantage of which is good, but not clear how it will translate to closer games.
Agreed re Daniel’s, but he also looks like he could get himself killed out there (I know I’m not saying anything novel there).
Even the stuff that opened up was mainly a bunch of checkdowns against deep zones, so not much to write home about. He hit one nice out to the sideline latish but the coverage was pretty soft. Overall almost everything else he threw was short or in the 5-10 yard range between the hashes and even on the short stuff the ball placement often didn't look great. He really only went downfield twice and the accuracy on both was really bad. One throw landed like 5 yards out of bounds and the other throw was definitely open and he just overthrew it. He also did a lot of one read and go quarterbacking although the OL didn't give him much help. Super dynamic runner but he never seems to slide and he doesn't quite have that Lamar-level slippery elusiveness that allows him to never really get hit squarely.
Had a sense a lot of the critics of the Penix pick were thinking..."now, well, hold on a minute, maybe not a bad idea to have a 2nd QB."
The problem with the Penix pick was always.... if you don't think Cousins is healthy/good enough.... why the hell would you give him $100M
Nix legitimately should have thrown four interceptions. Twice balls hit defenders in the face and they dropped them. I still thought he played OK, but his statline actually looked better than it should have been.
To be fair I think it's a bad pick anyway because I don't think he's a 1st round (nevermind top 10) talent, but what made is so bad a pick was... even if you think that, you went out of your way to pay a vet a huge amount of guaranteed money a week before, and there is zero reason you would do that if you expected him to be less than a 2 year starter for you at a high level (probably 3). THe idea that him looking bad (and still injured) makes it a good pick ignores that it would then be an all-time bad signing if you knew it was a mistake a week after you signed it before the player even practiced.
It's certainly true that paying Cousins/picking Penix was contradictory/confounding. But it may be that the Cousins signing was the worse part of the equation. He had very little mobility yesterday, is coming off an injury, is old, and has always been more good than great. It may be that's first game back/shaking off rust stuff. If not, though, the calculation on having Penix developing on the bench as an option down the line might change (I admit that I think Penix deserved to be picked in the top 10 and, for example, the Giants made a mistake in passing on him. That said, I know very little).
Put me down on being unimpressed with Caleb Williams the half dozen times I've watched him play.
He loved the broken play, scramble around, hit a streaking WR at USC. Not really a classic NFL pocket passer
I must have it wrong, the experts love him
Just like Justin Fields. That guy can do no wrong according to the media, even though when you look at everything (stats, eye test, etc.), he's total garbage except running.
Personally, I thought the rookie QBs from best to worst were: Daniels, Penix, Nix, Williams, McCarthy, Maye. We won't know for a couple more years, and I'm no expert, so take it with a shaker full of salt.
I don't think "the media" is all that high on Fields, people think he's better than Russ (he is) but I think you are confusing fantasy football writers with real football. The former love Fields for the same reason they'll love Daniels... rushing like that makes you really good in fantasy no matter how much you stink in real life.
In terms of Caleb... it's really easy to see why people like him.... he can make throws like 5 guys in the league tops can make. He needs work, he's a rookie 1 game in, but the ceiling is immense, the closest guy to him is Maye, but even Maye probably doesn't have the pure throwing ability from any platform.
I've never seen the arm strength from the pocket to wow me. He's always looking to leave the pocket early & scramble/gamble, which is great in college but no bueno in the NFL. Linemen/DBs are worlds faster in the pros, & Caleb isn't Daniels elusive.
Being a skeptic of the hands-down #1 pick isn't very clever on my part, but I'd rather have Maye (FWIW I'm not a Pats fan)
Here are Caleb's highlights/best throws at USC. 95% were broken plays, with over-the-top throws to USC WRs streaking down the field wide-open.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h2ECSZo2bBI&t=319s
Re: Penix/Cousins, I find it amusing that Cousins was drafted by WAS in the fourth round in the same draft they took RG3 as their franchise QB. I think the rationale at the time was if something catastrophic happened to RG3, they would have another development prospect and that prediction ended up shockingly true. There would be something karmically accurate/poetic/something about Cousins being the franchise guy and getting dumped for another QB prospect quizzically selected by his team.
All kidding aside I have nothing against either player - Cousins is above-average to good, Penix might be a future baller. Just strikes me as a funny situation.
All kidding aside I have nothing against either player - Cousins is above-average to good, Penix might be a future baller. Just strikes me as a funny situation.
I’m becoming increasingly paranoid that having Nix and Penix in the same draft is some kind of Total Recall tell shit about this all not being real. It’s fucking weird. But Maye, be not.
That said, one week only, but nothing to make me any less pleased about getting Drake, which ain’t nothing.
That said, one week only, but nothing to make me any less pleased about getting Drake, which ain’t nothing.
The talent he has is undeniable, but are the USC Offensive line and Receivers horrible? It's a lot of first read isn't there, stare down the field for 3 seconds, then scramble and make an off-platform throw or run.
The USC line was indeed bad, passcatchers too (Rice probably the only NFL guy and maybe not even him long-term), also... their defense was among the worst in the country, so a lot of "well can't not score here or we'll be down 2 possessions.
Which isn't to say Williams doesn't need work on staying in rhythm and on schedule, it's his biggest flaw. But... most rookie QBs have a ton of flaws in those areas without the positives of his creativity and ability to make incredible throws off-platform. Comparing him to say a Bo Nix... yeah, Nix will take a 1 yard checkdown in a heartbeat, but he doesn't have the same ability to create downfield plays and he doesn't see them any better (maybe worse) than Williams.
Not breaking down tape or anything so can’t see much of the secondary or the coverages but did Daniels even complete a ball downfield? If he did I had turned away so they were either awesome checkdowns or a guy who lacked confidence in his arm/coverage reads. It’s his first game so obv a pass but I wasn’t as excited about him as others were moving forward. Hard to tell without seeing the entire field though but something to watch Week 2.
1-3 on attempts 10+ yards. 14 of his 24 attempts were 4 yards or less, 8 of those were behind the LOS.
Then you don't watch ESPN (among others) as for their coverage, he's the next tier down from LeBron, Tiger, etc. He has always received an inordinate amount of coverage relative to his production, and it's not just fantasy people. It's never made any sense.
And both completions to the outside that were >5 yards plus the one about 8 yards upfield by the right hash were on the last drive of the game against paper soft zone with the Commanders down 23.
1-3 on attempts 10+ yards. 14 of his 24 attempts were 4 yards or less, 8 of those were behind the LOS.
It's his first ever game, and there are going to be a lot of people open because of his ability to run. His team is also garbage piss, so we need to give it time. The running ability is definitely there, and it's going to be elite, so that's at least a pretty good sign imo.
Throw distance is a weird stat--Mahomes was near bottom of league is how his throws compared to where the sticks were, and Bryce Young was near the top.
The Bears' dumpster fire of an OL and Caleb Williams' having a weak point of needing to learn to play on time within structure are an ugly combination. A lot of people (including me) thought this was going to be a pretty good situation for him with their receiving talent but yikes.
Seeing Caleb Williams struggle in what was deemed an ideal developmental situation makes me more happy we're able to approach Maye's development differently. The game is just moving too fast for Williams. He's learning on the fly that what has allowed him to be successful in the past isn't necessarily going to work at this level. In those situations where he's running for his life, it seems really hard to help him focus on learning a new way to play the game. At least Maye can observe and keep working on what the staff has asked of him in a totally different environment.
Why do we assume this experience won't help Williams going forward? Peyton Manning is an example of a guy who has said that figuring out what he couldn't get away with as a rookie was key to his development. I don't know, I guess I just don't think these guys are as fragile as some do. Maybe Bryce Young just has below average physical tools across the board and generally sucks. Maybe David Carr was simply clueless inside the pocket. Every player is different, not everything is a general referendum on the position. Not to mention Jayden Daniels has started out well behind what was universally considered a terrible OL with a very uninspiring group of receivers.
Week 2 rookies:
Caleb Williams: 23/37, 174 yards, 0/2 TD/INT, 7 sacks, 44 rushing yards
Bo Nix: 20/35, 246 yards, 0/2 TD/INT, 2 sacks, 25 rushing yards
Jayden Daniels: 23/29, 226 yards, 0/0 TD/INT, 5 sacks, 44 rushing yards
Williams currently with a QB rating of 53.0.
Nix is at 51.0.
Daniels is at 97.2.
Caleb Williams: 23/37, 174 yards, 0/2 TD/INT, 7 sacks, 44 rushing yards
Bo Nix: 20/35, 246 yards, 0/2 TD/INT, 2 sacks, 25 rushing yards
Jayden Daniels: 23/29, 226 yards, 0/0 TD/INT, 5 sacks, 44 rushing yards
Williams currently with a QB rating of 53.0.
Nix is at 51.0.
Daniels is at 97.2.
And Tom Brady said sitting helped his development. We don't and can't know. That being said, Peyton and Caleb's strengths are/were very different, so we're talking about a player in Peyton who played within structure and needed to learn the new limits to face when hitting the NFL and how to prepare for that. In Caleb, we're looking at someone who has played best out of structure; not only does he need to learn the limits of where that works and doesn't on a physical level (i.e NFL windows), he's also going to need to learn in all likelihood how to play within structure when it's what his team needs. I would imagine that's going to be really hard for him to do at NFL speed when running for his life. Drake Maye getting to take some reps against a really good defense and start to build some mental and muscle memory, in my mind, is a much better place for him right now while he's still working on things to be NFL ready.
But Drake Maye isn't really the same type of player as Caleb. He made most of his plays within structure in college.
UPDATED ROOKIE NUMBERS:
Jayden Daniels: 87/106, 82.1%, 897 yards, 3/1 TD/INT, 107.4 QB rating, 218 rushing yards, 4 TDs
Caleb Williams: 87/141, 61.7%, 787 yards, 3/5 TD/INT, 72.0 QB rating, 79 rushing yards
Bo Nix: 83/138, 60.1%, 660 yards, 1/4 TD/INT, 62.5 QB rating, 110 rushing yards, 2 TDs
JAYDEN DANIELS HAS 19 INCOMPLETIONS ALL SEASON.
Jayden Daniels: 87/106, 82.1%, 897 yards, 3/1 TD/INT, 107.4 QB rating, 218 rushing yards, 4 TDs
Caleb Williams: 87/141, 61.7%, 787 yards, 3/5 TD/INT, 72.0 QB rating, 79 rushing yards
Bo Nix: 83/138, 60.1%, 660 yards, 1/4 TD/INT, 62.5 QB rating, 110 rushing yards, 2 TDs
JAYDEN DANIELS HAS 19 INCOMPLETIONS ALL SEASON.
