Benintendi to Royals for Franchy Cordero, Mets RHP prospect Josh Winckowski, and 3 PTBNLs

Yo La Tengo

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I also get that people had attachments to Benny. He's got a 'heartthrob' and throwback quality that appeals to a lot of older fans in New England. I but I also don't see that we need to overreact to this or bemoan some fundamental loss of tradition. Mookie is a Hall of Famer, but Benny's not a star. He's a Mark Kotsay-style player in a league where that skill set is not nearly as valuable as it used to be.
I had the same Mark Kotsay thought. Interesting that he and Benintendi were both fantastic college players, both winning the Golden Spikes award (Benintendi also won the player of the year award), with Benintendi being drafted 7th in 2015 and Kotsay drafted 9th in 1996. Their numbers age 21-25 are surprisingly similar, with Benintendi putting up 10 more home runs during that time (and showing slightly better numbers overall).
 

DJnVa

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I'm really hoping that we (and the Boston media corps) could dig a little deeper than Wily Mo Pena for possible Franchy comps.
It really doesn't speak well of folks that are searching for something to say and come to Pena because he was a power-hitting prospect. Way to dig deep guys. Thanks for showing off.

On the other hand there are a lot of good posts about some of his advanced numbers, which look pretty good.
 

allmanbro

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Cordero's Statcast numbers are certainly interesting, unfortunately the sample size is extremely small (177 batted balls over 4 seasons). He hits the ball very hard, but could definitely improve his launch angle. It's interesting to see that he and Benintendi have exactly the same xwOBA over their careers: .347. Benintendi obviously has a considerably larger sample size (1,466 batted balls).

Player Batted Balls | Barrel % | Ave. Exit Velocity | xwOBA | Launch Angle
Benintendi 1,466 6.4 88.3 .347 14.7
Cordero 177 12.4 92.5 .347 7
MLB Average ... 6.4 88.3 .321 11.9


His sprint speed over the 4 seasons ranks at the following percentiles (hopefully last year was an aberration, but I don't know the explanation):
2017: 98th percentile
2018: 94th percentile
2019: 89th percentile
2020: 68th percentile

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/franchy-cordero-614173?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb
The relatively low launch angle is interesting to me. 2020 had his best contact rates by a lot, but also his lowest launch angle. So he may benefit by going against the flyball trend, and have enough power to still hit it out pretty often. Hard hit balls are more likely to get through the infield, and get past outfielders even if they aren't lofted. With his exit velocities and speed, he should be able to post pretty good BABIPs, mitigating his lack of contact some (statcast xBA last year was .343). Looking at his spray charts, he seems to have the most power to center field. I hope we see some triples into the triangle, and maybe a home run or two off that back wall above the CF wall.

It will be interesting to track his swinging strike and flyball trends this year.
 

EvilEmpire

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I don’t get it for KC either. They aren’t winning anything in the next two years, maybe they looked at Cordero and prospects as worth it to get a name player. But AB in addition to the footspeed drop can’t hit lefties; Bloom did really well to get a lot of assets for him before it was too late.
I don't think it is any more complicated than KC thinking they have a better chance of fixing a subsidized AB than developing Cordero much further.

If AB rebounds, they have a decent asset to move in a year.
 

joe dokes

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I don't think it is any more complicated than KC thinking they have a better chance of fixing a subsidized AB than developing Cordero much further.
Assuming rational actors, that has to be it. If they shared Bloom's apparent prognosis for Benintendi they either wouldn't make the trade or they'd give up less.
 

The Gray Eagle

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It really doesn't speak well of folks that are searching for something to say and come to Pena because he was a power-hitting prospect. Way to dig deep guys. Thanks for showing off.

On the other hand there are a lot of good posts about some of his advanced numbers, which look pretty good.
There's a ton more to it than just them being power hitting prospects. Both are legendary tools guys with cool names and not just power but the rare capability to hit jaw-dropping home runs:
http://www.thepostgame.com/features/201106/ballad-wily-mo-pena
Neither walks much and both strike out a ton.
Despite his amazing tools, Wily Mo never played a full season in the majors, and neither has Franchy.

Both are so athletic it seems like they should be good outfielders, but Wily Mo was not, he was really bad out there, and Franchy, though he's faster and hasn't played much in the majors, has made some memorable bad plays in the outfield. As Jon Abbey noted in the Marwin thread, the 2019 BA annual described Cordero's defense in a way that's very reminiscent of Wily Mo's:
"To call Cordero a shaky defender is to say Ignatius Reilly was a lousy frankfurter salesman; it's true, but also blandly understated. Last year, Cordero slipped and fell on his butt trying to field a single, clanged a flyball off his knee and somehow parlayed 70 speed into a 40 glove."

No two players are ever identical, there are always differences, but there are actually a lot of really noticeable similarities between them at this point in Cordero's career.
 

VORP Speed

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Cordero's Statcast numbers are very interesting. I posted earlier comparing the numbers to Benintendi's, but I also wanted to take a look at players who had similar seasons based upon Expected Weighted OBA, K%, BB%, and Exit Velocity. The two most recent seasons that I found to be the most similar to Franchy's overall numbers were Brandon Lowe 2019 and Miguel Sano 2017. It's not hard to squint and see a healthy Cordero improving his launch angle a bit and having a very productive year.

Player (Season) xwOBA K% BB% Exit Velocity
Franchy Cordero (All) .347 34.9% 8.9% 92.5 mph
Brandon Lowe (2019) .345 34.6% 7.6% 91.6 mph
Miguel Sano (2017) .349 35.8% 11.2% 92.3 mph
MLB Average .321 21.8% 8.3% 88.3 mph

The actual numbers for Lowe and Sano during those seasons were better than what Cordero has done obviously, but there are some definite similarities in the underlying Statcast data.
Lowe (2019) actual: .270 BA / .336 OBP / .514 SLG (.850 OPS)
Sano (2017) actual: .264 BA / .352 OBP / .507 SLG (.859 OPS)
Cordero (All) actual: .236 BA / .304 OBP / .433 SLG (.737 OPS)

Cordero could stand to improve his launch angle. If he does, the above examples show the type of player within his realm of possibilities.

Launch angles:
Lowe (2019 / Career): 19.2 / 17.8
Sano (2017 / Career): 13.1 / 15.5
Cordero (Career): 7

Again this is all a very small sample size for Cordero (177 career batted balls), but I would love to see what he can do in a full, healthy season.
Yandy Diaz is the comp.
 

nvalvo

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The Royals are indeed trying to compete this year. They've brought in Mike Minor and Carlos Santana and Michael A Taylor and Greg Holland. I must say, I don't see it, with Chicago, Cleveland, and Minnesota all looking straightforwardly better to me, but maybe they'll surprise me. They have a great catcher, just got a good season from ex-Phillie Maikal Franco, and now a Benintendi-Taylor-Merrifield outfield that could be a strength if Benintendi is decent. If a few of those young starting pitchers take steps forward, they could be pretty good. I'm glad they're trying.

If you're KC, you might just conclude that Fenway is terrible for Benintendi, that it has messed up his head as a hitter, and that giving him a less-distorting home ballpark like Kauffman will help him stop thinking about HR and get back to a line drive swing that will be more rewarding in that park.
 

Shaky Walton

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I can see the merits of this trade and the risks. I don't love it, I don't hate it. I'm slightly more pessimistic than optimistic, and have a gut feeling that Benintendi very well might have coasted after 2018 and that this might be the kick in the ass he needs to regain his game. Hell, he might have been on the path to that even without the trade.

But the thing I really do hate about this trade is that it has an acid like flashback for me to the Betts deal, which I am still not over.

I can play advocate for the Betts deal. It's not easy, but there are arguments and justifications. But sports fandom has an emotional component, at least for me, and I don't think I will ever get over trading Mookie Betts. This trade hearkens back to that dreadful day, and that sucks hard.
 

Tuff Ghost

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Yandy Diaz is the comp.
How so? Yandy Diaz does not strike out nearly as much as Cordero or the others, which immediately makes his profile rather different. But to add him to the table:

Player (Season) xwOBA K% BB% Exit Velocity
Franchy Cordero (All) .347 34.9% 8.9% 92.5 mph
Brandon Lowe (2019) .345 34.6% 7.6% 91.6 mph
Miguel Sano (2017) .349 35.8% 11.2% 92.3 mph
Yandy Diaz (All) .350 16.7% 11.5% 91.2 mph
MLB Average .321 21.8% 8.3% 88.3 mph


Diaz does hit a lot of hard ground balls (1.9 degree average launch angle), even more so than Cordero (7 degree average launch angle), so I am guessing that is what you are seeing?
 

Tuff Ghost

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The most consistent names coming up on this Similarity Scores tool are Nelson Cruz and Franmil Reyes. The tool only draws from the last four years, but Cruz and Reyes comprise 6 of the top 13 hitter seasons most comparable to Franchy's 2018. (Sano is up there too.)

https://public.tableau.com/profile/chamb117#!/vizhome/SimilarityScores_15888216006060/HitterComps
Franmil Reyes seems in the ballpark of Cordero's potential, if Cordero could cut down a little on the K's. His launch angle (9.1 degrees) is comparable, too (7 degrees for Cordero).

Nelson Cruz seems overly optimistic of a comparison and has better underlying Statcast numbers, certainly.

Player (Season) xwOBA K% BB% Exit Velocity
Franchy Cordero (All) .347 34.9% 8.9% 92.5 mph
Franmil Reyes (All) .350 28.4% 8.8% 92.8 mph
Nelson Cruz (All) .399 23.5% 9.9% 93.5 mph
MLB Average .321 21.8% 8.3% 88.3 mph
 

VORP Speed

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How so? Yandy Diaz does not strike out nearly as much as Cordero or the others, which immediately makes his profile rather different. But to add him to the table:

Player (Season) xwOBA K% BB% Exit Velocity
Franchy Cordero (All) .347 34.9% 8.9% 92.5 mph
Brandon Lowe (2019) .345 34.6% 7.6% 91.6 mph
Miguel Sano (2017) .349 35.8% 11.2% 92.3 mph
Yandy Diaz (All) .350 16.7% 11.5% 91.2 mph
MLB Average .321 21.8% 8.3% 88.3 mph


Diaz does hit a lot of hard ground balls (1.9 degree average launch angle), even more so than Cordero (7 degree average launch angle), so I am guessing that is what you are seeing?
He had an elite skill and the Rays targeted him because they thought the thing that was depressing that skill was fixable. I’m not saying he’s the perfect comp as a player, but more that’s the comp in terms of the trade. The Rays love to gather high upside guys with some elite tool and then figure out how to unlock that tool through usage pattern or some technical change or whatever. The Rays have always been pretty ruthless about avoiding status quo bias on their existing players and constantly looking to upgrade when their internal evaluations don’t match external perceptions.
 

section15

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Last week, in a computer conference presentation, I used the name of this actress - Didi Conn - who appeared in "Grease", as well as the very forgettable "You Light Up My Life".
I noted her name and in an association game = "remember to set the DDCONS parameter to YES" (mainframe computer jargon) ..."And now, guys and gals, you'll remember that!"

Although the movie did win an Oscar for best original song, uh, "You Light Up My Life".
 

section15

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I was down on this trade because Franchy has been a career 4-A guy - and from what I understand he only has two options left. So I'm still a bit skeptical but....

If Winchowski is the real deal - which he MIGHT be - then, yeah 2022 or so he'll be here. The Mets had assigned him, apparently to AAA - a huge jump from the Florida State League, and it's likely the Sox will plug him in at Portland. Let's see how he does there (and at the Fort) - AA is the *big* dividing line. I'm assuming he's going there and not to Salem or Woo-Sox.
 
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chawson

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I was down on this trade because Franchy has been a career 4-A guy - and from what I understand he only has two options left.
Not exactly, he's a guy who's missed a ton of time to injury the last three years as illustrated by this post above. He logged only 96 minor league PAs in 2018-19, most of them on rehab stints.
 

joe dokes

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I was down on this trade because Franchy has been a career 4-A guy - and from what I understand he only has two options left. So I'm still a bit skeptical but....
So two years of the Worcester shuttle available if necessary? That should be plenty.
 
Speier quotes Dave Jauss, who coached Cordero in the DWL this year, saying two noteworthy things: 1) Cordero is a perfectly serviceable left fielder; and 2) Troy O'Leary is his ceiling.

The comparison to O'Leary seems to be less about Cordero's tools than about his being (potentially) a late bloomer. Jauss's exact words:

“He has the ceiling of a Troy O’Leary... Troy O’Leary brought a whole lot of positives for the Boston Red Sox and the baseball industry. He became a good left fielder, a dangerous hitter in the middle of the order.
Without hitting 45 home runs, he always had the potential to go out on any at-bat. He could go gap to gap.

“This type of player — O’Leary and Cordero — come into their own at different times in their career. If Cordero develops in the way that O’Leary developed, I think he could be the same way that O’Leary was, which I think is a high caliber of player in the scouting world.”
 

The Gray Eagle

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Nice article in the Athletic about Benintendi and his plans for this year:
https://theathletic.com/2385557/2021/02/13/hes-excited-why-andrew-benintendi-is-optimistic-about-his-royals-opportunity/
part of what makes a professional baseball player is his drive to improve. While Andrew was appreciative of the 2018 results, he thought he could make strides by lofting the ball more. So he bulked up, adding 15 or so pounds to his 5-foot-9, 175-pound frame.

Watching a game in spring 2019, Chris Benintendi noticed his son’s added weight.

“It was like, ‘Man, now he’s got an ass like I do,’” Chris said recently, laughing.
After his freshman year at Arkansas, Benintendi made changes to get stronger to try to hit more home runs, and it worked out great:
Playing every day for an NCAA Tournament team as a freshman was a disappointment to some. Regardless, Andrew returned home, motivated to strengthen his body, to add power to his bat. And boy, did he ever. The next year, Andrew held his own against highly touted players such as Alex Bregman and Dansby Swanson. He batted .376/.488/.717 with 20 home runs, which propelled the Red Sox to draft him with the No. 7 pick in 2015.

So, you can see why the 2018 offseason thought — that natural ability plus more strength would equal more power — would exist. It had before.

There’s also the monetary element to this. Power statistics, specifically OPS, had been awarded in arbitration cases; that year, Andrew was entering his first arbitration season that year.

“It was like watching somebody go down a road that they shouldn’t go down,” said Andy Barkett, who at the time was the Red Sox assistant hitting coach. “There was really nothing we could do. We could talk to him and tell him, but when that little man on his shoulder is telling him to go deep rather than stay to the middle and hit a line drive, it’s hard to fight that battle, you know?”

Nearly a dozen times in that 2019 season, manager Alex Cora and then-general manager Dave Dombrowski met with Barkett and Red Sox hitting coach Tim Hyers.

“What’s going on with Benny?” they’d ask.

“He’s trying to hit homers,” they’d say.

Andrew, from Barkett’s perspective, was attempting to lift the baseball, which caused his back shoulder to dip. He wasn’t naturally pulling the ball; he was thinking about pulling the ball, and that, Barkett believes, affected Andrew’s body.

“We were all about hitting pull-side homers in Boston,” Barkett said. “The problem is, when your mechanics are jacked up, you’ve got to get back to square one, to ground zero.”
He injured his oblique in 2019 and combined with his rib injury last year, he hasn't been the same since:
Andrew was batting .290/.363/.475 through 125 games in 2019, numbers that essentially eclipsed his 2018 production. Then, Aug. 24 in San Diego, Andrew stepped into the batter’s box. He swung and cringed; both Chris and Jill knew something was wrong. Andrew was pulled out of the game with oblique tightness.

He returned to action Aug. 30 and played the rest of the season, posting a .141/.243/.219 slash line that September — the worst of his big-league career.
He was still struggling with his swing before last season:

The 2020 season struggles pre-injury were a different story. He was whiffing at more fastballs than ever. His sprint speed dipped from 28.6 feet per second in 2016 to 27.1 feet per second in 2020, an alarming drop off for a 26-year-old.

“Here’s the reality: He looked more like his uncles Brian and Bobby in the box than Andrew Benintendi,” Chris said.

Even before the trade, this 2020-21 offseason has been about returning to his fluid athletic self. He’s eaten differently. His body has returned to his natural weight, he said. His bat path is also where he wants it to be.

“He decided he’s going to go back to what he looked like when he was at his best,” Chris said, “and that was the guy who was 175 at his height. Be the athletic, bat-on-ball kind of guy.”

“Now I understand the player I am and want to be,” Andrew said.

“He’s a line-drive swing type of guy,” Barkett said. “Kauffman Stadium is a tough place to hit the ball out of the ballpark. So for him there it’s, ‘There’s gaps here; I just need to stay within myself and play my game.'”
Who knows whether he really will be able to get back to the swing and production he had before Sept. 2019. This might just be all "best shape of my career" talk. But it's more promising from his perspective than if he was saying things like "I've been working out hard all offseason, getting stronger. I should be hitting more homers this year" or something like that. It will be really interesting to see if he is able to regain some sprint speed or not. It seems like he understands that he needs to.
 

Manramsclan

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I haven't been able to find much info about Cordero's most recent injury, so I went digging. He underwent surgery on 8/11/2020 to repair a broken hamate bone in his right wrist. That sounds pretty scary as I always equal a hamate bone injury as the "power sapping" injury. That's the same injury that both Nomar and Wily Mo Pena had.
The hamate bone power thing is not as big of a problem as it is sometimes presented. Others who have had hamate injuries include Giancarlo Stanton, Juan Soto, and Matt Olson, some of the biggest power hitters around.
My understanding is that the "power sapping" aspect of the hamate bone injury is that it just hurts to swing. There is a hook on the bone that buts up against the knob of the bat. If it's broken, it's possible to play through it without doing considerable damage but the vibration of the bat on the ball will make it hurt so much that the natural reaction is to not swing through the ball.

Once the bone is removed, and strength in the wrist returns it usually isn't a problem. It's just that it takes 6-8 weeks to recover so if it happens during the season that is a lot of time to miss. Guys that play through it aren't as effective because of the fact that they just don't impact the baseball the same way because the very act of it is very painful.

Nomar's most impactful injury was a tendon in his wrist(flexor retinaculum) that had split up the middle and got worse as he played through it. You may recall there was a tendon sheath that had basically been frayed by the tendon snapping over and over a metacarpal bone. That was what got him.

I don't know what Wily Mo Pena had but him never making contact was a bigger problem than his injuries (which may end up being Franchy's problem).

Multiple studies come to the same conclusion on the effect of hamate bone injuries on the performance of MLB players:

Conclusion: MLB players sustaining hook of hamate fractures can reasonably expect to return to their preinjury performance levels following operative treatment.
As for the players and wanting to see a team that you can get behind, I have watched Renfroe and Franchy play and they are both fun to watch. Renfroe has incredible power and makes some pretty incredible throws from the OF (with the occasional highlight catch). He also seems like a really good guy.
Franchy has the type of athleticism that is awe inspiring. Not like Wily Mo who was just gigantic, Franchy moves with grace and will hit a near 500 foot bomb on occasion. These guys are fun players. Platooning them may create a better player than Beni in the aggregate for less money while giving the Red Sox a shot at putting talent in a barren system for the long term.
 

billy ashley

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yeah, loads of players break their hamate bone. It's really common. It normally year long reduction in power if allowed to heal naturally.

It's really pretty common. Pedroia had it in 2007. Jim Thome had it in the 90's. The surgery can take a while to recover from. Playing through it can harm you're ability to rip it at the plate. It's not something to worry about.
 

Earthbound64

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yeah, loads of players break their hamate bone. It's really common. It normally year long reduction in power if allowed to heal naturally.

It's really pretty common. Pedroia had it in 2007. Jim Thome had it in the 90's. The surgery can take a while to recover from. Playing through it can harm you're ability to rip it at the plate. It's not something to worry about.
 

billy ashley

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As Manramsclan already pointed out, Nomar's issue wasn't the hamate injury. It was the tearing of the tendon.

Furthermore, the classic "sapping power" symptom really doesn't apply to Nomar.

Garciaparra's Isos remained around .200 after the wrist injury. What killed Nomar was that his average fell to a still respectable (and probably much more sustainable).300-.310 range from the.350-.370 range and the assorted leg issues that kept him off the field. But he was excellent when he first came back (he was worth 11 fwar across those two seasons)

He was still a damned good hitter when healthy. The two seasons after his wrist injury featured Wrc+ around 125. He also hit more homers in both those years than his last season before shattering his wrist. He was still really good in 2006, with the Dodgers, posting an offensive line 20% better than average.

Did that Al Reyes fastball alter his career?

Absolutely. He lost a year of his peak, and his offense upon returning, while excellent, was not as excellent as it was before.

But again, that's probably the tendon injury more than the hamate bone. Also, what really killed Nomar was the fact that he could never stay on the field after that. He suffered a ton of nagging, unrelated injuries in 04, 05, and 06, before falling apart offensively in 07.

Had he remained who he was in those "diminished" 02/03 campaigns across those 3 seasons, he'd probably be in the Hall of Fame (super peak, no graceful decline).
 

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Manramsclan

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You guys suck at Google.

Morgan found, as expected, a split tendon and an inflamed sheath surrounding it.

Just look at a picture of the hand. The hamate bone is a tiny bone. It is painful because of the vibration of the bat. A gut check before X-ray for a broken bone is to use a tuning fork because it's vibrations are very painful for a broken bone.The hamate bone hurts like hell due to the vibrations but it's a nuisance for a normal person. It's just terrible for a MLB player who constantly impacts a hardball thrown at incredible speed with a wooden bat.

The ECU tendon is what split on Nomar. It runs near the hamate bone where he got hit by the pitch but the tendon is what the problem was. It's not the same injury.
Bone. Tendon.

More about ECU tendon and subsheath injuries.

If the hamate bone is broken it gets removed and life goes on once the strength is back in the wrist. A tendon injury is much more complicated and can impact life far beyond that.
 

garlan5

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Two weeks ago my 10yr old son had some birthday money he wanted to spend. Saw a cool looking black baseball signed by Beni in silver. He was dead set on getting it. I told him to consider the J.D or Chris Sale ball that was also for sale. No, he wanted Beni. So I called the guy selling it and he informed me he had a Pedey signed ball but it was more than double the price. Told my boy I'd chip in the rest. Beni, Sale, and JD were listed at $150 but on sale for half off. He had $140 to blow. I got the Pedey for just over $200. Paid too much but glad he was good with it. He would be disappointed with the buy right now otherwise.
 

chawson

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So it seems like the prospect we are getting from the NYM is going to be good
Some interesting names in Khalil Lee’s range of Mets prospects. LHP Thomas Szapucki seems like a guy Bloom would be into. Tops out at 97 with a high spin rate curveball, depressed hype after missing some time with an arm injury. May not stick as a starter but scouts have his ceiling as a multi-inning Andrew Miller or Josh Hader. Reminds me of Bloom’s interest in Caleb Ferguson as part of the Mookie return. They also have a cluster of interesting young third basemen, but so do we. I’d bet it’s Szapucki if he’s healthy.

From KC, maybe exit velocity dude Seuly Matias is among the names exchanged? Huge power, low plate discipline OF the Royals could be ready to move on from if they’re prioritizing contact hitters again. RHP reliever Noah Murdock would be great here too, was ranked around #30 but is probably around #12 or so now after a big year.
 

JimD

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I'd agree. If the Sox were sending Lee to the Mets, they ought to be getting a Lee-caliber player in return, so that's a good thing for Boston.
Unlikely, because the Sox already got Winckowski from the Mets, so it's doubtful the prospect will be the same caliber as Lee.
 

chawson

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Unlikely, because the Sox already got Winckowski from the Mets, so it's doubtful the prospect will be the same caliber as Lee.
Winckowski didn't crack the Jays' Top 40 prospect lists and slots roughly #30-32 in ours. Sounds like Bloom genuinely likes him but I doubt he moves the needle very much. I'd be surprised if we didn't get back someone in the Mets' #5-12 prospect range. Otherwise I think we'd just keep Lee, who's not far removed from the Top 100 prospect list.

I think both teams still have some work to do whittling down the 40-man this week. My money's on Szapucki or Allan, but the Mets' third base situation is confounding to me. They've been linked to Justin Turner, Kris Bryant and Matt Chapman the last few weeks, and have Davis (and McNeil) at the major league level and Vientos, Baty, Newton and Jaylen Palmer in the pipeline.
 

Dewey'sCannon

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Right. I’d expect someone in the 15-25 range on their lists. Maybe better than Winckowski but not in their top 10.
Yeah, when I read this story my hopes ticked up a bit, thinking we could be getting something more than someone with a ceiling of a back-end starter. Speier said not to expect someone in the top 10, so I was looking at the Mets 11-20 on MLB Pipeline. This kid looks interesting:

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/mets/robert-dominguez-693013
 

chawson

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Speier did tweet that none of the Mets' 1 and Royals' 2 PTBNLs "are expected to be" in the Sox Top 10. OTOH, go down too deep in the Mets' system (which is worse than ours) and you've got guys with fairly negligible value.

The Baseball Trade Values app assigns Khalil Lee 9.1 points of value and Winckowski 0.3 points, fwiw. Here's how it values the Mets' Top 16 prospects:

Mauricio (SS) - 35.4
Alvarez (C) - 26.1
Baty (3B) - 18
Allan (RHP) - 14.9
Crow-Armstrong (OF) - 15.4
Ginn (RHP) - 4.9
Vientos (3B) 13.2
Szapucki (LHP) - 2.4
Santos (RHP) - 2.3
Dominguez (RHP) - 2.6
Newton (SS/3B) -1.6
Ramirez (OF) - 4.5
Valdez (OF) - 2.1
Palmer (3B) - 2.4
Cortes (2B) - 1.8
Kilome, Otanez, Cornielly, Ventura, Gilliam, McWilliams, Mazeika, Butto, Suarez - 0-1

It wasn't a 3-team trade so much as Bloom quickly flipping Lee, a #6-8 prospect in a solid KC system, to the Mets. I don't know why he'd do that for the #15 and #32 prospects in a system that's already worse than ours.
 
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nvalvo

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Speier did tweet that none of the Mets' 1 and Royals' 2 PTBNLs "are expected to be" in the Sox Top 10. OTOH, go down too deep in the Mets' system (which is worse than ours) and you've got guys with fairly negligible value.

The Baseball Trade Values app assigns Khalil Lee 9.1 points of value and Winckowski 0.3 points, fwiw. Here's how it values the Mets' Top 16 prospects:

Mauricio (SS) - 35.4
Alvarez (C) - 26.1
Baty (3B) - 18
Allan (RHP) - 14.9
Crow-Armstrong (OF) - 15.4
Ginn (RHP) - 4.9
Vientos (3B) 13.2
Szapucki (LHP) - 2.4
Santos (RHP) - 2.3
Dominguez (RHP) - 2.6
Newton (SS/3B) -1.6
Ramirez (OF) - 4.5
Valdez (OF) - 2.1
Palmer (3B) - 2.4
Cortes (2B) - 1.8
Kilome, Otanez, Cornielly, Ventura, Gilliam, McWilliams, Mazeika, Butto, Suarez - 0-1

It wasn't a 3-team trade so much as Bloom quickly flipping Lee, the #8 prospect in a solid KC system, to the Mets. I don't know why he'd do that for the #15 and #32 prospects in a system that's already worse than ours.
One thing about this: Baseball Trade Values assigned Benintendi 4.6 "points" of value, which means that we got Lee, a 9.1, Cordero, a 3.5, and two more PTBNLs (remember that Winckowski and the other PTBNL are downstream from Lee) for a 4.6 and $2.8m.

As I said upthread, this implies that Benintendi is deemed much more valuable by the KC front office than by Baseball Trade Values (or that Lee and Cordero are much less valuable). I like BTV's project, which I think has really elevated the Internet Fake Trade discourse, but it isn't gospel.
 

NJ_Sox_Fan

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IF the prospect coming from the Mets is not good, why bother to flip Lee to them at all? Lee would be in our Top 10, no?
 

chawson

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One thing about this: Baseball Trade Values assigned Benintendi 4.6 "points" of value, which means that we got Lee, a 9.1, Cordero, a 3.5, and two more PTBNLs (remember that Winckowski and the other PTBNL are downstream from Lee) for a 4.6 and $2.8m.

As I said upthread, this implies that Benintendi is deemed much more valuable by the KC front office than by Baseball Trade Values (or that Lee and Cordero are much less valuable). I like BTV's project, which I think has really elevated the Internet Fake Trade discourse, but it isn't gospel.
Totally agree, BTV is fun but hardly gospel and everyone's valuations have been scrambled by the pandemic. As I recall, Beni's trade value last year at this time was something like 35 "points," so if they think he's still that guy (minus 1 year of team control), it's conceivable they value him higher than 4.6 units of whatever.

I'm basically trying to reverse-engineer a reality where Thomas Szapucki is the Sox' return here. He fits the sort of post-injury, post-hype, almost starter-turned-dominant multi-inning reliever breakout candidate type Bloom has chased in the past.
 

BaseballJones

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IF the prospect coming from the Mets is not good, why bother to flip Lee to them at all? Lee would be in our Top 10, no?
Exactly. The Sox would just keep Lee unless the return from the Mets was something that Boston valued *more* than Lee.
 

jon abbey

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The part you guys aren’t factoring in is that Lee is already on the 40 man. When NY traded Sonny Gray to the Reds, they got Shed Long but immediately flipped him to the Mariners for a worse player who wasn’t rule 5 eligible for a few years and I’m guessing that’s also what Bloom did here.
 

OCD SS

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The part you guys aren’t factoring in is that Lee is already on the 40 man. When NY traded Sonny Gray to the Reds, they got Shed Long but immediately flipped him to the Mariners for a worse player who wasn’t rule 5 eligible for a few years and I’m guessing that’s also what Bloom did here.
I could see that being a factor, but not at the expense of getting worse talent back; the Sox are looking to rebuild and are actually signing OFers, so I'm not sure if the talent value of a 40 slot is a cost worth paying when the the potential DFA isn't going to be anyone we'd miss.

My guess is that everybody has managed to optimize the deal so they're getting a player they're higher on than the player they gave up. I feel like Bloom trusts his (and his team's) assessment more than other evaluations, and will make those deals without care for what they look like to us on the outside...
 

Steve Dillard

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The part you guys aren’t factoring in is that Lee is already on the 40 man. When NY traded Sonny Gray to the Reds, they got Shed Long but immediately flipped him to the Mariners for a worse player who wasn’t rule 5 eligible for a few years and I’m guessing that’s also what Bloom did here.
Spots on the 40 are not that much of a premium for the Sox as they were for the Yankees. We have Marcus Walden and D. Hernandez on the list.

I suspect this is more of an issue that Lee plays a position where the Sox have Duran (24) and Jimenez (20) already lined up. And the Sox need pitching, so trade for the best chip from KC, even if its not the chip you would value, if you can get a good young arm from the Mets. It may not have gotten into the 10s on their list, but few 19-21 YO pitchers are in flux, expecially without a minor league season to pop. For example, Kopech was 14th when we drafted him, and within a year was in the top 7. That's also why they wanted to have time to eyeball the pitchers in actual games this year before making the pick.
 

jon abbey

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I could see that being a factor, but not at the expense of getting worse talent back; the Sox are looking to rebuild and are actually signing OFers, so I'm not sure if the talent value of a 40 slot is a cost worth paying when the the potential DFA isn't going to be anyone we'd miss.
It's not just talent value, you can only keep so many guys on the 40 man who can't help you at all this year and BOS already has a bunch including 1 or 2 OFs (Rosario definitely isn't ready, not sure about Marcus Wilson).
 

Humphrey

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It really doesn't speak well of folks that are searching for something to say and come to Pena because he was a power-hitting prospect. Way to dig deep guys. Thanks for showing off.

On the other hand there are a lot of good posts about some of his advanced numbers, which look pretty good.
Wily Mo could have made history. Was the next batter after the Sox hit 4 homers in a row vs the Yanks in 2007.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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I’m guessing the Mets really like Lee’s defense, ability to take a walk, and his speed. But I can also see Bloom looking at him as a Delino DeShields type: speed and glove but contact challenged, with little power, and the possibility that MLB pitchers will just go after him with ease. Can’t steal first and all that. So you flip him to a team that can give you comparable value but in a different package. Hoping that’s another arm, and hoping others are right and we can get a player ranked among their top dozen prospects. Is there someone who does not need to be on the 40 man but is also not far from the MLB?
 

chawson

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It's not just talent value, you can only keep so many guys on the 40 man who can't help you at all this year and BOS already has a bunch including 1 or 2 OFs (Rosario definitely isn't ready, not sure about Marcus Wilson).
I'm not especially worried about this and I don't think Bloom's done. There's whispers that he's shopping Chavis and it's plausible he could sneak one or two of Brice, Springs, Walden, Valdez, Brewer, Wilson or even Arroyo through waivers once everyone sets their rosters, with no great loss if any are claimed. We'd need to add Downs, Duran, Jimenez, Ward, Bello, German and maybe Feltman to the 40-man next winter.

Is there someone who does not need to be on the 40 man but is also not far from the MLB?
Most of their young arms (Allan, Santos, Ginn, Dominguez, Cornielly) don't need to be added to the 40-man for another 2-3 years. Mark Vientos, a power-hitting 3B and fringe Top 100 guy, fits your description and could be on the bubble. He'd need to be added to the 40-man next winter but may have been lapped by Baty in the org's plans.