Benintendi to Royals for Franchy Cordero, Mets RHP prospect Josh Winckowski, and 3 PTBNLs

scottyno

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Anyone who expects this team to win in the mid 80s is delusional.
Are you assuming their 2 aces throw 0 pitches and their #3 misses a third of the season again? Because if so then yeah, but this isn't a bad roster at all if that doesn't happen.
 

Kliq

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Thing is, the shift from Dombrowski to Bloom is a significant one, but no less significant than the shift from Cherington to Dombrowski in terms of philosophy. Cherington by and large was a continuation of the Epstein era, which was predicated on building a base of home grown talent and flexing the team's financial might to fill in the gaps. And it was largely effective for a decade plus (3 titles in 10 years between the two GMs). I think handing the reins to Bloom is very much trying to go back to the Epstein/Cherington style of internal development and judicious use of financial advantages.

Worth noting that the trouble found during the transition from Epstein to Cherington and the transition from Dombrowski to Bloom are similar in one aspect...over-extending financially in a rush to win another title. First it was the signing of Crawford and Lackey and trading for Gonzalez (an unsuccessful spending spree), then it was the signing of Price and JD Martinez, and trading for Sale and Kimbrel, resulting in the greatest season in team history. Basically a departure from sound long term team building due to impatience on ownership's part.

I don't think the Rays are what ownership is trying to emulate. It's the Dodgers. It took a few years for Friedman to get the Dodgers where he wanted them. He benefited from the high priced veteran roster he inherited (results, in part, of the Punto trade) and a weak division to keep winning division titles as he built the organization he wanted. Bloom won't have the luxury in the AL East.
I hope you are right, but the Dodgers have always been willing to spend money in a way that the Red Sox seem...resistant too at the moment.
 

amRadio

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Are you assuming their 2 aces throw 0 pitches and their #3 misses a third of the season again? Because if so then yeah, but this isn't a bad roster at all if that doesn't happen.
I agree. I also think one ancillary benefit that comes with having a lot of starters in the high minors with significant "reliever risk" is that we might end up with some young arms in the pen soon. We need health in the rotation and we all know Sale's optimistic timetable is July and that Eovaldi has pretty much never pitched a full season. It's not ideal, but this is not a bad roster.
 

soxhop411

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I hope you are right, but the Dodgers have always been willing to spend money in a way that the Red Sox seem...resistant too at the moment.
There is spending money just because you can and spending money wisely.

the Sox have spent money on FA before (who were considered marque FA At the time) And that has gotten us into trouble (Crawford,A-gon, panda etc)

so. Im fine with them being selective with how they spend the $$
 

sean1562

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Sure the Yankees and Dodgers have a consistent track record of winning but they both only have one WS win this century while the Red Sox have 4. Even if we were to make the playoffs this season, do we really expect to be able to compete with the juggernaut that is the Dodgers? Next season is clearly a "bridge" year and Bloom is betting that Cordero is better than Beni in 2022 an d that one of the guys we get is a bullpen piece. That Dodgers team is way overleveraged salary wise now and Kershaw and Seager are FAs after next season. With Bauer, they are looking at a payroll of around $195 million in 2022 before giving the previous two guys a contract.
 

scottyno

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I hope you are right, but the Dodgers have always been willing to spend money in a way that the Red Sox seem...resistant too at the moment.
Because the Dodgers are currently the best team in baseball and were spending to win their first ring in 30 years and even if the Sox spent like drunken sailors they wouldn't be. Sox outspent everyone a few years ago when it made sense to while the Dodgers were unwilling to do the same.
 

JM3

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I hope you are right, but the Dodgers have always been willing to spend money in a way that the Red Sox seem...resistant too at the moment.
Opening day payroll rank by year...maybe not the perfect metric, but the 1st one I found.

2020 Dodgers 2nd, Red Sox 3rd
2019 Red Sox 1st, Dodgers 4th
2018 Red Sox 1st, Dodgers 3rd
2017 Dodgers 1st, Red Sox 3rd
2016 Dodgers 1st, Red Sox 3rd
2015 Dodgers 1st, Red Sox 3rd
2014 Dodgers 1st, Red Sox 4th
2013 Dodgers 2nd, Red Sox 4th
2012 Red Sox 3rd, Dodgers 12th
2011 Red Sox 3rd, Dodgers 10th
2010 Red Sox 2nd, Dodgers 12th

Have to go back to 2003 for the last year Red Sox weren't in the top 4 in opening day payroll (they were 6th).

I guess my point is, yeah, the Dodgers might have spent a bit more over the last 8 seasons, but it's realllllly hard to complain about payroll as a Red Sox fan in the 21st century.

Now how that payroll is used, of course...
 

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Both of them had K rates of 25%-27%, not 39%. David Ortiz was in the low 20s. There are a lot of smart people on this board, I think the better question is how many breakouts occur in the age 27 season for players with that kind of K rate. Of that list a few pages ago, how many have Cordero's profile? I don't the answer, I am seriously asking. Chris Davis maybe?
Power and speed is useless if strike three is in the catcher's mitt.
Since 1901, I found a few careers that parallel Cordero’s, through the first four seasons: At least 315 PAs through that time, Cordero’s career total, an AB/SO ratio worse/less than 2.6, close enough to Cordero’s 2.58, and all had to be done by age 25 at latest, which was Cordero’s age in 11/16 games he played last season. I also chose this because he’ll be 26 most of 2021 too given a September birthday.

Since that got me too big of a sample and included guys like Sano who had over 1,000 PAs, I limited it to the players who had sub 400 as well, for a similar sample size of work. If you want a bigger range of guys for PA samples, I’d be happy to do that as well. As I digress, Cordero aside, we’re left with seven players under my personal constraints:

1) Brett Phillips, the walkoff hero in Game 4 of the WS. Dude also has the fastest throw recorded in Statcast history. He’s a glove guy, first and foremost. Not the way Cordero will succeed.

2) Mel Stottlemyre. A pitcher. Nope. He is still the last AL pitcher to hit an inside the park grand slam though.

3) Hugh Bedient, a member of the 1912 World Champs, who wound up being the save leader for the Buffalo Blues in the Federal League in 1915, and never played at a major league level again. Another pitcher.

4) Adam Engel. Granted, all of his 336 PAs for this qualifier came in his rookie year, 2017. Very forgettable, below average MLB career with the White Sox until this past year at age 28, which might be ascribable to SSS. Most of the projection systems think so. The one I trust most, ATC, is also the most optimistic, relatively speaking, with a projected wOBA and wRC+ of .293 and 82, respectively.

5) Clay Kirby. More pitchers. Went 8 deep with a no hitter on July 21, 1970 against the Mets, when he was pinch hit for by Cito Gaston. Friars fans think this is their curse as to why they remain the only MLB franchise without one.

6) Melvin Nieves. Probably the ceiling of a guy like Cordero. Notably had two two home run games in his career, in both cases he homered from both sides of the plate. As you’d expect, decent career overseas, never much in MLB, but did stick around for sometime, until 1998. In seasons where he played 20+ games, or essentially 1995-98, his wRC+: 82, 98, 92, 96. Like Cordero, not much renowned for fielding either.

7) Brandon Allen, 10 total career games after this stretch in 2012. Washed out basically immediately, currently coaches in the Cardinals system.

So yeah. Historic precedent just isn’t here in the past 120 years for a guy to succeed like this. Best outcome that exists is a guy who provides league average batting over the next few seasons. No true outbreaks happened at all. Not that they should be expected anyway, but it’s just not happened.
 

nighthob

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Hopefully we'll have extended them by the time Jeisson Rosario, who seems likelier to be our CF of the future than Duran, is ready.
You misspelled Gilberto Jimenez (get back to me on Rosario when he demonstrates that he can hit minor league pitching).
 

OurF'ingCity

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Now how that payroll is used, of course...
Exactly. It's really not true that the Dodgers have thrown the cash around while the Red Sox have been penny pinchers. It's just that the Dodgers have largely avoided giving out albatross contracts (not so much because they don't give out big contracts, but just because their players seem to generally live up to them) while the Red Sox...haven't.
 

Kliq

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Opening day payroll rank by year...maybe not the perfect metric, but the 1st one I found.

2020 Dodgers 2nd, Red Sox 3rd
2019 Red Sox 1st, Dodgers 4th
2018 Red Sox 1st, Dodgers 3rd
2017 Dodgers 1st, Red Sox 3rd
2016 Dodgers 1st, Red Sox 3rd
2015 Dodgers 1st, Red Sox 3rd
2014 Dodgers 1st, Red Sox 4th
2013 Dodgers 2nd, Red Sox 4th
2012 Red Sox 3rd, Dodgers 12th
2011 Red Sox 3rd, Dodgers 10th
2010 Red Sox 2nd, Dodgers 12th

Have to go back to 2003 for the last year Red Sox weren't in the top 4 in opening day payroll (they were 6th).

I guess my point is, yeah, the Dodgers might have spent a bit more over the last 8 seasons, but it's realllllly hard to complain about payroll as a Red Sox fan in the 21st century.

Now how that payroll is used, of course...
Right, the Red Sox have obviously historically spent a lot of money. I was referring to "at the moment" which would be right now; where the Red Sox balked at re-signing their best position player in 40 years and then remained largely absent from the free agent process. I'll be very happy if the Red Sox open the checkbook again, and it is fine to rebuild the farm system and create a more flexible roster, but the Dodgers under Friedman have never been afraid to splash some cash around, and the Yankees certainly have not been hesitant either. I'd love it if the Red Sox could get on the path of smart scouting, optimal talent development, while also leveraging their big-market money into signing/retaining very good players at expensive rates. I'm nervous (again, perhaps illogically so) that ownership is also looking at a way where they can avoid that second part of the LAD/NYY system.
 

EricFeczko

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Since 1901, I found a few careers that parallel Cordero’s, through the first four seasons: At least 315 PAs through that time, Cordero’s career total, an AB/SO ratio worse/less than 2.6, close enough to Cordero’s 2.58, and all had to be done by age 25 at latest, which was Cordero’s age in 11/16 games he played last season. I also chose this because he’ll be 26 most of 2021 too given a September birthday.

Since that got me too big of a sample and included guys like Sano who had over 1,000 PAs, I limited it to the players who had sub 400 as well, for a similar sample size of work. If you want a bigger range of guys for PA samples, I’d be happy to do that as well. As I digress, Cordero aside, we’re left with seven players under my personal constraints:

1) Brett Phillips, the walkoff hero in Game 4 of the WS. Dude also has the fastest throw recorded in Statcast history. He’s a glove guy, first and foremost. Not the way Cordero will succeed.

2) Mel Stottlemyre. A pitcher. Nope. He is still the last AL pitcher to hit an inside the park grand slam though.

3) Hugh Bedient, a member of the 1912 World Champs, who wound up being the save leader for the Buffalo Blues in the Federal League in 1915, and never played at a major league level again. Another pitcher.

4) Adam Engel. Granted, all of his 336 PAs for this qualifier came in his rookie year, 2017. Very forgettable, below average MLB career with the White Sox until this past year at age 28, which might be ascribable to SSS. Most of the projection systems think so. The one I trust most, ATC, is also the most optimistic, relatively speaking, with a projected wOBA and wRC+ of .293 and 82, respectively.

5) Clay Kirby. More pitchers. Went 8 deep with a no hitter on July 21, 1970 against the Mets, when he was pinch hit for by Cito Gaston. Friars fans think this is their curse as to why they remain the only MLB franchise without one.

6) Melvin Nieves. Probably the ceiling of a guy like Cordero. Notably had two two home run games in his career, in both cases he homered from both sides of the plate. As you’d expect, decent career overseas, never much in MLB, but did stick around for sometime, until 1998. In seasons where he played 20+ games, or essentially 1995-98, his wRC+: 82, 98, 92, 96. Like Cordero, not much renowned for fielding either.

7) Brandon Allen, 10 total career games after this stretch in 2012. Washed out basically immediately, currently coaches in the Cardinals system.

So yeah. Historic precedent just isn’t here in the past 120 years for a guy to succeed like this. Best outcome that exists is a guy who provides league average batting over the next few seasons. No true outbreaks happened at all. Not that they should be expected anyway, but it’s just not happened.
I think sampling variability and bias are at play with these comps here. Players with Cordero's frequency of play are likely to be injury prone and therefore drop out entirely. Injuries aside, future performance is probably too hard to predict when a player has only played 40 games at most in a given year.
 

OurF'ingCity

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Since that got me too big of a sample and included guys like Sano who had over 1,000 PAs, I limited it to the players who had sub 400 as well, for a similar sample size of work. If you want a bigger range of guys for PA samples, I’d be happy to do that as well.
Not saying you're wrong, but limiting the sample size to players under 400 PAs is a bit misleading in this instance because the lack of PAs has mostly been due to injuries, whereas with somebody like Brandon Allen he didn't get PAs because he just wasn't that good.

If (and admittedly it's a big if given his history) Cordero can stay healthy, it's not crazy (not likely, perhaps, but not crazy) to think that he could have a Sano-like career moving forward - something like 1-3 WAR depending on the year. To be sure, Beni is much more likely to provide that 1-3 WAR per year, with upside for more, but that's why the Sox are also getting back 4 other players.
 

chawson

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You misspelled Gilberto Jimenez (get back to me on Rosario when he demonstrates that he can hit minor league pitching).
I had thought Jimenez bulked up to a corner outfielder projection but this is a good point.

Since 1901, I found a few careers that parallel Cordero’s, through the first four seasons: At least 315 PAs through that time, Cordero’s career total, an AB/SO ratio worse/less than 2.6, close enough to Cordero’s 2.58, and all had to be done by age 25 at latest, which was Cordero’s age in 11/16 games he played last season. I also chose this because he’ll be 26 most of 2021 too given a September birthday.

Since that got me too big of a sample and included guys like Sano who had over 1,000 PAs, I limited it to the players who had sub 400 as well, for a similar sample size of work. If you want a bigger range of guys for PA samples, I’d be happy to do that as well. As I digress, Cordero aside, we’re left with seven players under my personal constraints:

1) Brett Phillips, the walkoff hero in Game 4 of the WS. Dude also has the fastest throw recorded in Statcast history. He’s a glove guy, first and foremost. Not the way Cordero will succeed.

2) Mel Stottlemyre. A pitcher. Nope. He is still the last AL pitcher to hit an inside the park grand slam though.

3) Hugh Bedient, a member of the 1912 World Champs, who wound up being the save leader for the Buffalo Blues in the Federal League in 1915, and never played at a major league level again. Another pitcher.

4) Adam Engel. Granted, all of his 336 PAs for this qualifier came in his rookie year, 2017. Very forgettable, below average MLB career with the White Sox until this past year at age 28, which might be ascribable to SSS. Most of the projection systems think so. The one I trust most, ATC, is also the most optimistic, relatively speaking, with a projected wOBA and wRC+ of .293 and 82, respectively.

5) Clay Kirby. More pitchers. Went 8 deep with a no hitter on July 21, 1970 against the Mets, when he was pinch hit for by Cito Gaston. Friars fans think this is their curse as to why they remain the only MLB franchise without one.

6) Melvin Nieves. Probably the ceiling of a guy like Cordero. Notably had two two home run games in his career, in both cases he homered from both sides of the plate. As you’d expect, decent career overseas, never much in MLB, but did stick around for sometime, until 1998. In seasons where he played 20+ games, or essentially 1995-98, his wRC+: 82, 98, 92, 96. Like Cordero, not much renowned for fielding either.

7) Brandon Allen, 10 total career games after this stretch in 2012. Washed out basically immediately, currently coaches in the Cardinals system.

So yeah. Historic precedent just isn’t here in the past 120 years for a guy to succeed like this. Best outcome that exists is a guy who provides league average batting over the next few seasons. No true outbreaks happened at all. Not that they should be expected anyway, but it’s just not happened.
For a more modern look using Baseball Prospectus' Alex Chamberlain's model, fwiw, here the closest modern season comps for Franchy Cordero's 2018, the year he logged the most PAs, using wOBA, K%, BB%, barrels, launch angle and contact rate:

1. Nelson Cruz 2020
2. Franmil Reyes 2019
3. Daniel Palka 2018
4. Fernando Tatis Jr. 2019
5. David Bote 2018
6. Giancarlo Stanton 2018
7. Miguel Sano 2017
8. Tyler Flowers 2019
8. Franmil Reyes 2018
10. Shohei Ohtani 2018

Franmil Reyes is a useful comp here, both being fellow statcast darlings on the Padres with big exit velocities and worrisome whiff rates. But Franchy plays much better defense.
 

scottyno

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Right, the Red Sox have obviously historically spent a lot of money. I was referring to "at the moment" which would be right now; where the Red Sox balked at re-signing their best position player in 40 years and then remained largely absent from the free agent process. I'll be very happy if the Red Sox open the checkbook again, and it is fine to rebuild the farm system and create a more flexible roster, but the Dodgers under Friedman have never been afraid to splash some cash around, and the Yankees certainly have not been hesitant either. I'd love it if the Red Sox could get on the path of smart scouting, optimal talent development, while also leveraging their big-market money into signing/retaining very good players at expensive rates. I'm nervous (again, perhaps illogically so) that ownership is also looking at a way where they can avoid that second part of the LAD/NYY system.
Huh? Both teams went through the same luxury tax reset that the Sox just went through within the last few years, they were certainly hesitant to go after the top guys. And the sox and yankees will likely have similar payrolls this year.
 

Kliq

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Huh? Both teams went through the same luxury tax reset that the Sox just went through within the last few years, they were certainly hesitant to go after the top guys. And the sox and yankees will likely have similar payrolls this year.
The Red Sox payroll this season is irrelevant to the discussion since I am not talking about the current payroll, but the direction that Bloom is going in. The Red Sox have a high payroll because of deals that were done pre-Bloom (Sale, JDM, Evoldi, etc.)
 

Tuff Ghost

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Cordero's Statcast numbers are certainly interesting, unfortunately the sample size is extremely small (177 batted balls over 4 seasons). He hits the ball very hard, but could definitely improve his launch angle. It's interesting to see that he and Benintendi have exactly the same xwOBA over their careers: .347. Benintendi obviously has a considerably larger sample size (1,466 batted balls).

Player Batted Balls | Barrel % | Ave. Exit Velocity | xwOBA | Launch Angle
Benintendi 1,466 6.4 88.3 .347 14.7
Cordero 177 12.4 92.5 .347 7
MLB Average ... 6.4 88.3 .321 11.9


His sprint speed over the 4 seasons ranks at the following percentiles (hopefully last year was an aberration, but I don't know the explanation):
2017: 98th percentile
2018: 94th percentile
2019: 89th percentile
2020: 68th percentile

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/franchy-cordero-614173?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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The Red Sox payroll this season is irrelevant to the discussion since I am not talking about the current payroll, but the direction that Bloom is going in. The Red Sox have a high payroll because of deals that were done pre-Bloom (Sale, JDM, Evoldi, etc.)
True, but how can you talk about the direction Bloom is going vis-a-vis the payroll when there are the roadblocks that exist in the current payroll? We can really glean nothing of what Bloom might do payroll-wise in, say, 2023 based on what he's doing now. The points being made about the payroll over the last 15-20 years is to counter the concern that they're headed in a "Rays" direction of constant roster turnover to maintain a low payroll. It's unfounded and probably not worth worrying about.
 

Kliq

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True, but how can you talk about the direction Bloom is going vis-a-vis the payroll when there are the roadblocks that exist in the current payroll? We can really glean nothing of what Bloom might do payroll-wise in, say, 2023 based on what he's doing now. The points being made about the payroll over the last 15-20 years is to counter the concern that they're headed in a "Rays" direction of constant roster turnover to maintain a low payroll. It's unfounded and probably not worth worrying about.
I generally think this is fine, which is why I prefaced my concerns as likely illogical. I thought they might be worth a discussion, which is why I aired them.
 

nighthob

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I had thought Jimenez bulked up to a corner outfielder projection but this is a good point.
Given Jimenez's lack of HR power, if he can't stick in center then Duran probably is the CF of the future as he's demonstrated more with the bat than Rosario. With better speed to boot. (Rosario does look like a pretty good reserve OF prospect, though). However Jimenez seems to have held on to his speed despite his bulking up to 210 or so. So he definitely looks like the CF of the future with his gap power from both sides of the plate (and his arrival would allow Boston to move Duran for a big return).
 

Minneapolis Millers

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True, but how can you talk about the direction Bloom is going vis-a-vis the payroll when there are the roadblocks that exist in the current payroll? We can really glean nothing of what Bloom might do payroll-wise in, say, 2023 based on what he's doing now. The points being made about the payroll over the last 15-20 years is to counter the concern that they're headed in a "Rays" direction of constant roster turnover to maintain a low payroll. It's unfounded and probably not worth worrying about.
Seriously. Bloom isn’t working on a blank slate. He inherited a team with 3 guys who have $20M or more/year contracts. With a ton of dead money as well. So yes, he’s working around the edges, clearly trying to improve the overall roster and 40-man while keeping overall payroll below the LT level, and will still have the team in the top 3 in payroll. I can’t understand the complaining about Bloom. Let’s see what he’s doing in 2023...
 

The Gray Eagle

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I personally don't mind bringing in a lot of new players-- if the new guys play well, they will be quickly adopted and become favorites. If the team wins, they will be loved. Just look at 2013 when we brought in a bunch of new guys. Not a lot of fans of Stephen Drew or Jonny Gomes or Ryan Dempster or Mike Carp or Mike Napoli here before that season, but most soon became well liked.

But if these new players don't play well, they won't be popular. If the team isn't any good, the fans won't be happy with these moves. That's just how it goes.

Winning makes everything look better and losing makes everything look worse. Winning and individual performance will determine whether any of these new guys become fan favorites or hated.
 

JM3

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The Red Sox payroll this season is irrelevant to the discussion since I am not talking about the current payroll, but the direction that Bloom is going in. The Red Sox have a high payroll of deals that were done pre-Bloom (Sale, JDM, Evoldi, etc.)
I guess I'm a bit confused about how both past payroll & current payroll are irrelevant to a determination of the Red Sox willingness to spend.

Right, the Red Sox have obviously historically spent a lot of money. I was referring to "at the moment" which would be right now; where the Red Sox balked at re-signing their best position player in 40 years and then remained largely absent from the free agent process. I'll be very happy if the Red Sox open the checkbook again, and it is fine to rebuild the farm system and create a more flexible roster, but the Dodgers under Friedman have never been afraid to splash some cash around, and the Yankees certainly have not been hesitant either. I'd love it if the Red Sox could get on the path of smart scouting, optimal talent development, while also leveraging their big-market money into signing/retaining very good players at expensive rates. I'm nervous (again, perhaps illogically so) that ownership is also looking at a way where they can avoid that second part of the LAD/NYY system.
But yeah, as others have mentioned, when you are paying $35m for David Price, Pedey & Manny not to play for you, it kinda messes with budgets in a luxury tax era, plus having your ace out half the year.

My point regarding historical spending (including spending 2 years ago) is that there is no reason to believe the Red Sox ownership will cheap out when it's time to strike.
 

soxhop411

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I guess I'm a bit confused about how both past payroll & current payroll are irrelevant to a determination of the Red Sox willingness to spend.



But yeah, as others have mentioned, when you are paying $35m for David Price, Pedey & Manny not to play for you, it kinda messes with budgets in a luxury tax era, plus having your ace out half the year.

My point regarding historical spending (including spending 2 years ago) is that there is no reason to believe the Red Sox ownership will cheap out when it's time to strike.
Yes. And who knows where the Sox right would be if the dodgers didn’t bail us out. (Success wise)
 

Ale Xander

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Yes. And who knows where the Sox right would be if the dodgers didn’t bail us out. (Success wise)
Fenway is like a minor league team in the Dodgers organization, in a sense. (Manny/Beckett-Agone/Betts)

I don't get how so many people in this thread seem ok with a top-3 payroll team getting to 85 wins being regarded as a success.
 

johnnywayback

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Fenway is like a minor league team in the Dodgers organization, in a sense. (Manny/Beckett-Agone/Betts)

I don't get how so many people in this thread seem ok with a top-3 payroll team getting to 85 wins being regarded as a success.
Is your argument that, since we have a top-3 payroll already, we should be willing to spend whatever it takes, regardless of the value proposition or long-term ramifications, to win 90-plus games? Or is it that, if we don't think we're going to win more than 85 games, we shouldn't bother having a top-3 payroll?
 

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Fenway is like a minor league team in the Dodgers organization, in a sense. (Manny/Beckett-Agone/Betts)

I don't get how so many people in this thread seem ok with a top-3 payroll team getting to 85 wins being regarded as a success.
I don't think anyone's regarding it as "success" so much as reality. To get this team to 95+ wins would require spending in excess of 2018 levels. Two real problems with that at the moment are a) who could they sign this winter to make up that kind of deficit and b) luxury tax penalties aren't conducive to creating long term success.
 

scottyno

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The Red Sox payroll this season is irrelevant to the discussion since I am not talking about the current payroll, but the direction that Bloom is going in. The Red Sox have a high payroll because of deals that were done pre-Bloom (Sale, JDM, Evoldi, etc.)
Unlike the yankees opening day payroll which decreased for 5 straight years from 2015-2019 until they got Cole? There's really no reason to think that the Sox going forward won't spend big on certain players when it makes sense to do so.
 

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I don't think anyone's regarding it as "success" so much as reality. To get this team to 95+ wins would require spending in excess of 2018 levels. Two real problems with that at the moment are a) who could they sign this winter to make up that kind of deficit and b) luxury tax penalties aren't conducive to creating long term success.
Right. This is what LA did with the Punto trade. They blew everyone else out of the water in 2013, with payroll leading #2 NY by about $30M. They won 94 games, but got bounced by the Cards in round 1.

The penalties today for taking that approach are worse. And it also just doesn’t guaranty you anything.

If Boston’s best players come back strong and healthy and perform well, they’re a competitive team. And they’re set up financially to make more moves next year and beyond.
 

scottyno

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Fenway is like a minor league team in the Dodgers organization, in a sense. (Manny/Beckett-Agone/Betts)

I don't get how so many people in this thread seem ok with a top-3 payroll team getting to 85 wins being regarded as a success.
They had no realistic path to what you would consider success in either 2020 or this year. So yeah, with this current roster winning in the mid 80s and hopefully making the playoffs where anything can happen when you have a great ace would be a decent version of success.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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Unlike the yankees opening day payroll which decreased for 5 straight years from 2015-2019 until they got Cole? There's really no reason to think that the Sox going forward won't spend big on certain players when it makes sense to do so.
Wait, didn’t NY’s payroll go up in 2019? And would have again in 2020 except that it was prorated? Side point, I know, but just fact checking, I guess.
 
The 2018 team was 9th in the league in HRs and first in the league in slugging so it’s not like they were some small-ball team (those don’t really exist anymore).

And in terms of strikeouts, the Rays by far led the league in Ks last year and won the AL pennant.

I totally get where you are coming from in terms of aesthetics, but it’s a proven path to success. It’s also worth noting that the Sox actually had the third highest BA last year, so it seems reasonable to me that Bloom may feel it’s ok to take a small step back in that department if it means increased power.
I haven't posted on here in a long, long time, so I don't know you, but this argument qualifies you to be a member of the Trump Impeachment Defense team. Making a cursory statistical comparison of the 2020 Rays (or for that matter, the 2020 Sox) in the same sentence as the 2018 Sox is absurd.

The 2018 Sox were a great team, perhaps the greatest baseball team we've ever seen. They were a great team in April, May, June, July, August, September AND October. They achieved that consistency by being smart, adaptable hitters, and doing everything else well. They dominated in the post-season without their only great pitcher.

Most all-or-nothing teams are streaky, crush mediocre pitching, and ride the coattails of their pitching staffs into the post-season. There have been four exceptional teams in the past 20 years - the Giants, Astros, Dodgers and Red Sox and the one thing they all have in common is balance. If hitting a gazillion HRs a year were the key to success, the Yankees would win every year.
 

OurF'ingCity

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I haven't posted on here in a long, long time, so I don't know you, but this argument qualifies you to be a member of the Trump Impeachment Defense team. Making a cursory statistical comparison of the 2020 Rays (or for that matter, the 2020 Sox) in the same sentence as the 2018 Sox is absurd.

The 2018 Sox were a great team, perhaps the greatest baseball team we've ever seen. They were a great team in April, May, June, July, August, September AND October. They achieved that consistency by being smart, adaptable hitters, and doing everything else well. They dominated in the post-season without their only great pitcher.

Most all-or-nothing teams are streaky, crush mediocre pitching, and ride the coattails of their pitching staffs into the post-season. There have been four exceptional teams in the past 20 years - the Giants, Astros, Dodgers and Red Sox and the one thing they all have in common is balance. If hitting a gazillion HRs a year were the key to success, the Yankees would win every year.
Sure, obviously the ideal is a team that hits a lot - for power and average - walks a lot, doesn't strike out a lot, is pretty fast, etc. That's basically what we got in 2018 and obviously that team was way better than the 2020 Rays.

My point was only (a) basically all good teams, including the 2018 Red Sox, hit for power, and (b) striking out a lot doesn't necessarily mean your offense is bad. Which means that a big-power, big-strikeout team can be good, and in fact we see lots of good teams take this approach. Are those teams as good as the 2018 Red Sox? No, but as you point out, virtually no team is.
 

Fenway

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Jul 14, 2005
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As others have said. PTBNL are not what they used To be. Especially in the covid era.

there has been no MILB season in a year. So if you announce and finalize the trade/players now you are trading for wildcards even if they played in the hodgepodge MILB “season” last year.

because those players would have either played in that so called “MILB season” last Year or have not played in professional baseball in a year.

either way scouting reports for most MILB players are probably pretty outdated and I bet they(bloom/Sox) want to see how these players actually perform in legit MILB action (against other teams and not scrimmages) prior to actually trading for them. Because right now how the scouting report says they performed in 2019 could be worse or better than how they will perform this year especially with a year off for most of them.
 

DeadlySplitter

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Benny had a Zoom intro from the Royals today, here's an excerpt.

View: https://twitter.com/Royals/status/1360030861505122308?s=20

Also some comments in this Globe article

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2021/02/11/sports/andrew-benintendi-says-hes-excited-be-with-royals-will-remember-boston-fondly/?event=event25
“There was an effort on my end to just try to get the ball in the air more,” Benintendi said. “At the time, I think that’s where the game was, and it might be getting away from that a little bit now, but it was about power.”

Even though the sample size was small, Benintendi’s 2020 season was even worse. He looked lost, tinkering with his stride. He wasn’t quick to the ball, either. In 52 plate appearances, he hit just .103, striking out 17 times, before missing the rest of the shortened season because of a right ribcage strain.

On Thursday, Benintendi acknowledged he had broken ribs, too,

Benintendi said he worked tirelessly this offseason to return to his previous form. He’s gotten back to more of a lean frame, and also worked with Red Sox hitting coaches Tim Hyers and Peter Fatse last month in an effort to correct the holes in his swing.

“I kind of understand the player I am, the player I want to be,” Benintendi said. “Physically, I feel back to where I need to be.”
 
Dec 28, 2015
55
We have traded Andrew Benintendi for Wily Mo Pena Redivivus and enough prospects to move us from 25th to 23rd place in farm system rankings.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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We have traded Andrew Benintendi for Wily Mo Pena Redivivus and enough prospects to move us from 25th to 23rd place in farm system rankings.
Looking forward to your info on who these prospects are that give the Sox only that small bump in rankings.

You were asked to show your work last time you posted (about Garrett Richards).
 

jon abbey

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I don't think it's unfair to consider the 1/3 to Marwin essentially part of this trade, since that is exactly how much was freed up (6.6 - 2.8 -.8)

1 year of Gonzalez (3)
3 years of Franchy (.8/?/?)
the four prospects mostly still TBA
$2.8M of dead money

2 years of Benintendi (6.6/?)

I'm not especially high on Marwin and still I think that is a great trade from the BOS side, and that's even before the prospects are announced. Check out Benintendi's free fall in average sprint speed rankings year by year, yikes:

View: https://twitter.com/mike_petriello/status/1359692628426645505?s=20
 

grimshaw

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I'm not especially high on Marwin and still I think that is a great trade from the BOS side, and that's even before the prospects are announced. Check out Benintendi's free fall in average sprint speed rankings year by year, yikes:
I think part of it was him starting to bulk up in 2018, and then injuries last year.

As I've mentioned before, Fenway was always an awful fit for him. Not a lot of territory to cover when he first came up and rated very well as a fielder and he never had a chance to play CF because of JBJ. It hurt his value and I think he just got frustrated and tried to change his game and body too much. I'm sure not being able to pull the ball out of Fenway greatly frustrated him during the home run boom.
 

bosockboy

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I don’t get it for KC either. They aren’t winning anything in the next two years, maybe they looked at Cordero and prospects as worth it to get a name player. But AB in addition to the footspeed drop can’t hit lefties; Bloom did really well to get a lot of assets for him before it was too late.
 

joe dokes

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We have traded Andrew Benintendi for Wily Mo Pena Redivivus and enough prospects to move us from 25th to 23rd place in farm system rankings.
Or, the Red Sox GM convinced two major league teams to give up possible major league baseball players for a guy with Joe Charbonneau's career arc.
 

chawson

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I'm really hoping that we (and the Boston media corps) could dig a little deeper than Wily Mo Pena for possible Franchy comps.

As I recall, the talk radio goons heaped so much ridicule on Wily Mo in 2006 that the Fenway crowd would often serve him ironic cheers whenever he'd take a pitch for a ball. That didn’t happen to Eric Hinske or Doug Mirabelli that year, though both posted higher K rates, and it eluded Mike Napoli (32.4% in 2013) in his time here too. Chavis and Dalbec have equally high whiff rates and have never been compared to Wily Mo Pena on this board, according to search results.

That kind of player can be frustrating, but there are many in the game today with K rates at or above 30 percent. Quite a few are stars (Gallo, Lowe, Judge, Sanchez, Hiura, Sano, Baez, others). I'd really like to see a player like Franchy Cordero have a chance to succeed here, even though he may strike out a lot and has a name that New Englanders find strange. That seems much less likely if media and fans decide out of the gate that he's a target for ridicule.
 
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bosockboy

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I'm really hoping that we (and the Boston media corps) could dig a little deeper than Wily Mo Pena for possible Franchy comps.

As I recall, the talk radio goons heaped so much ridicule on Wily Mo in 2006 that the Fenway crowd would often serve him ironic cheers whenever he'd take a pitch for a ball. That didn’t happen to Eric Hinske or Doug Mirabelli that year, though both posted higher K rates, and it eluded Mike Napoli (32.4% in 2013) in his time here too. Chavis and Dalbec have equally high whiff rates and have never been compared to Wily Mo Pena on this board, according to search results.

That kind of player can be frustrating, but there are many in the game today with K rates at or above 30 percent. Quite a few are stars (Gallo, Lowe, Judge, Sanchez, Hiura, Sano, Baez, others). I'd really like to see a player like Franchy Cordero have a chance to succeed here, even though he may strike out a lot and has a name that New Englanders find strange. That seems much less likely if media and fans decide out of the gate that he's a target for ridicule.
Remy having to pronounce that is worth it alone.
 

Tuff Ghost

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Cordero's Statcast numbers are very interesting. I posted earlier comparing the numbers to Benintendi's, but I also wanted to take a look at players who had similar seasons based upon Expected Weighted OBA, K%, BB%, and Exit Velocity. The two most recent seasons that I found to be the most similar to Franchy's overall numbers were Brandon Lowe 2019 and Miguel Sano 2017. It's not hard to squint and see a healthy Cordero improving his launch angle a bit and having a very productive year.

Player (Season) xwOBA K% BB% Exit Velocity
Franchy Cordero (All) .347 34.9% 8.9% 92.5 mph
Brandon Lowe (2019) .345 34.6% 7.6% 91.6 mph
Miguel Sano (2017) .349 35.8% 11.2% 92.3 mph
MLB Average .321 21.8% 8.3% 88.3 mph

The actual numbers for Lowe and Sano during those seasons were better than what Cordero has done obviously, but there are some definite similarities in the underlying Statcast data.
Lowe (2019) actual: .270 BA / .336 OBP / .514 SLG (.850 OPS)
Sano (2017) actual: .264 BA / .352 OBP / .507 SLG (.859 OPS)
Cordero (All) actual: .236 BA / .304 OBP / .433 SLG (.737 OPS)

Cordero could stand to improve his launch angle. If he does, the above examples show the type of player within his realm of possibilities.

Launch angles:
Lowe (2019 / Career): 19.2 / 17.8
Sano (2017 / Career): 13.1 / 15.5
Cordero (Career): 7

Again this is all a very small sample size for Cordero (177 career batted balls), but I would love to see what he can do in a full, healthy season.