Baylor Scheierman - 30th pick, RD1
- Thread starter ifmanis5
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I have this argument every year here. Dip shooters are better. Power legs bent strength from them is 90s thinking. Shooting is rhythm and momentum. It’s why kids at 10 with proper coaching can knock down threes. We seriously argue over this every November. Steph does not rely on leg strength. He is a string bean. He uses the dip and the sway in every situation to create rhythm and momentum. He can score from the logo. Do you want his teammates to throw it to his waist or below which will result in turnovers but he can just crouch (the guy is literally known for standing tall) waiting so he can generate "power?" Dip and sway are talked about here after the 2:20 mark.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lvc8lN6KEA0
Dribbling off the bounce is different. Watch your hero Paige here: she dips on the catch but is one up off the bounce. What you said about passers being inaccurate who btw are trained to aim for the neck so they can achieve momentum is ridiculous.
View: https://youtu.be/XdSkKLerpfA?si=ff0Tz5svgo9-63N8
View: https://youtu.be/XdSkKLerpfA?si=ff0Tz5svgo9-63N8
Here is Derrick White dipping and catching upright, not crouching and using his legs to generate so-called power:
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/8bd9-MotP4s
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/8bd9-MotP4s
Nice no-dip 3 here in a prior gam (at 1:30). Nice to see he is able to add that quickly.
View: https://youtu.be/eAFsx-5R5q0?si=Po8vg-LyX7Zw4d5h&t=90
View: https://youtu.be/eAFsx-5R5q0?si=Po8vg-LyX7Zw4d5h&t=90
I'm not a coach, but the shooting mechanics discussion is really interesting. I always thought of Steph's shooting motion as the equivalent of Ken Griffey Jr.'s swing mechanics (or Dustin Pedroia if you prefer) - if you're a kid, don't copy those guys, because unless you're Griffey, it's not going to work for you. Look at Manny Ramirez's swing instead: short, compact, quick to the ball, not a lot of moving parts. For basketball, I thought the conventional wisdom is to look at a shot like Ray Allen's: balanced, facing the rim, square the elbow, snap the wrist.
Fascinating if Steph's mechanics have turned that all on its head, and now we're teaching kids to shoot in a single motion, dip or no dip.
Fascinating if Steph's mechanics have turned that all on its head, and now we're teaching kids to shoot in a single motion, dip or no dip.
Despite being the “textbook” form for a while i don’t think we’ve seen anyone come close to ray allens form. does anyone still jump that high on threes?
Without putting any thought into it, Anthony Edwards and Tyler Herro comes to mind as two who get good elevation on their jumper…..especially Herro.
The garbage time crew had a good extended run against the Clippers (Scheierman, Walsh, Springer, Tillman, Queta). They were +4 in 5 minutes. Scheierman did not put up great numbers (0-1, 2 rebounds, 1 assist) but he played with more of a purpose than he did in his earlier garbage opportunities.
It also seemed like they were trying to get Baylor more on-ball and play-starting opportunities last night. He's far away and who knows if it'll work, but that's a path that is intersesting for him, so glad they are exploring a bit. He's probably not a Hauser-like spot shooter primarily - he probably needs some different combo of contributions to offset reality that he's a good, not elite, shooter in all probability
It’s a good way of putting it. He looked more comfortable and like he belonged on the court. Against bench scrubs. In garbage time. But, still, it’s progress.
I’m usually high on Celtics being developed, but I don’t see it with Baylor. He’s old for a rookie, and no where near playable. He’s not uber athletic, and if he doesn’t become a deadeye shooter from three, I don’t see him ever being a rotation player with the Celtics.
If he does figure it out, his best case scenario in the future is as a fourth wing, after the two Jays and Hauser. I’m higher on young Jordan Walsh, who has the tools to be a top flight wing defender. To me, s a close competition, and Walsh can hit even 35% of his threes, I’d go with Walsh, figuring he’d be better on ball defender, plus a way better off ball defender, which is needed with the reserves if PP is being exploited.
If he does figure it out, his best case scenario in the future is as a fourth wing, after the two Jays and Hauser. I’m higher on young Jordan Walsh, who has the tools to be a top flight wing defender. To me, s a close competition, and Walsh can hit even 35% of his threes, I’d go with Walsh, figuring he’d be better on ball defender, plus a way better off ball defender, which is needed with the reserves if PP is being exploited.
This sounds like the debate from a few years back on Langford (top flight wing defender) vs Nesmith (long-distance sharp-shooter)
It's not impossible that Scheierman works out, but it's really important to remember both that Hauser was a really incredible success story (undrafted FAs typically don't get real rotation minutes in the NBA finals) and that Hauser has been a much better shooter than Baylor for basically his entire basketball life. The odds of Hauser being a 99th percentile 3 point shooter were definitely better than the odds of the same for Scheierman.
I've seen nothing thus far from Baylor that would lead to optimism (I'm only basing this on his pro career thus far, in summer league and preseason), but happy to be wrong. He'll certainly get a shot.
He didn't seem as bambi last night in garbage time as he did in prior stings, exhibition, etc. So there's that. But yeah, I'm still not sure what he brings to the table. If he shoots and can play passable defense, he's depth behind JB/JT/SH/JW. That's something I guess. Best case, if Walsh's shooting never really materializes, is that he jumps him, and that already seems unlikely (Walsh's shooting looks real albeit pedestrian).
The main reason for optimism is that he's a much better ballhandler/passer than Hauser, and probably is a slightly better athlete overall.
The C's recent developmental track record with older (24-25 year old) guys has been good lately, so I don't think his odds depend totally on having Hauser's shooting upside.
I'll buy that he could turn into a better all-around offensive player than Hauser, but I don't think that's going to be particularly useful to this version of the Celtics. Hauser fits perfectly with the Jays and everyone else because of his A+ shooting and spacing (and his ability to defend and rebound well enough to be helpful). Scheierman's better playmaking is of little use when we'd still rather have any of Tatum/Brown/Holiday/White/Pritchard handling the ball, it's just not a role that we'll need him to play.
Regardless of the aftertaste, the Celtics are actively trying to develop multiple wing/guards, and it's because they need to replace Jrue at some point.
DWhite isn't going anywhere, and neither is PP unless it's part of a huge upgrade.
It's KP or Jrue, this summer.
It doesn't have to be him, but they're going to look for someone to pop. He and Walsh are the current top of the list. If they don't work out, they might have to acquire a mediocre wing at a bit of a higher salary.
I think the idea is that when you are drafting 30th in round 1, and your rotation is set, you take the guy who you think might develop over a couple of years.
Scheierman has a couple of ways to develop (his shot and his all around game) and a couple of issues (mainly his defense).
We don't have visibility into how exactly the Celtics roster will evolve over the next couple of years or which rotation players might miss some time with injury.
During summer league, training camp, and his few early garbage minutes Scheierman looked absolutely lost. But he has been productive in the G, showing the same all around game he had in college, and he looked better in his garbage minutes the other night, so it is good to see that he is making progress.
Scheierman has a couple of ways to develop (his shot and his all around game) and a couple of issues (mainly his defense).
We don't have visibility into how exactly the Celtics roster will evolve over the next couple of years or which rotation players might miss some time with injury.
During summer league, training camp, and his few early garbage minutes Scheierman looked absolutely lost. But he has been productive in the G, showing the same all around game he had in college, and he looked better in his garbage minutes the other night, so it is good to see that he is making progress.
I’ve always been a huge proponent of the opposite but Baylor IS the opposite. Brad didn’t draft a 24-yr old rookie to develop him over time…..he did what Phoenix did when they drafted Ryan Dunn. The only difference is that one is contributing and the other appears to be a bust….there isn’t any way to sugarcoat this by saying a 24-yr old is a developmental guy.
I’m not super high on Baylor but I don’t think all these “hopeful rotation guys” automatically hit the ground running, regardless of age. Sure it would have been great if he lit up summer league and garbage time, but it didn’t happen. Negative data points to be sure.
Bust is certainly a high probability, but strong early games in Maine is at least some positive signal too. And physically he doesn’t seem entirely overmatched to me.
G-league could mean nothing, but too early to give up on him, especially if he keeps playing well in Maine right out of the gate. I can squint and see a useful player, especially if the early shooting woes were mainly nerves, new environment, form tinkering etc.
If he were physically overmatched I’d feel better as that is an area you can improve over time but a 24-yr old is rarely going to be physically overmatched especially in the G-League so to me this is a negative. We have a 5-year college player who is on a similar trajectory as a one-and-done high ceiling 19-yr old…..without the high ceiling. I can’t squint and see much more than a nice running mate for Carsen Edwards in German Basketball Bundesliga.
Certainly a good possibility.
My only point is I think this is (marginally) less likely after what looks like a strong G-League start.
If his early G league games looked like the summer league, he might already be on a plane to Germany.
Sam Hauser was a 24-year old developmental guy, and he worked out well.
I also don’t think Phoenix has the kind of talent ahead of Dunn that we have ahead of Scheierman, and I very much doubt there is any player Brad could have drafted at 30 who would be in our rotation right now.
Let Baylor light it up the G-League, and build up some equity. Maybe there is a tanker that would like to trade & develop him (+control) in a bigger trade scenario.
Brad has repeatedly used draft picks & draftees that haven't popped in trades.
Baylor doesn't have to be a Celtic development piece to add present value.
Hauser also showed up immediately looking like a shooter, hitting 42.9% of his 3s in his first summer league and first preseason. There was clearly much to work on, but he flashed elite potential at arguably the most valuable NBA skill, instantly. Baylor looked like absolutely awful until he got to the G league.
The constant mentions of Hauser really aren't doing Baylor any favors. Hopefully the game slows down for him, but unfortunately that's not something we'll ever really learn about in the G league.
I think it borders on the absurd to make a snap judgment that a player is a bust based on summer league and 58 preseason minutes. The G league is mostly a negative indicator - I think you can read in to a faceplant there more than you can read into success there.
I'm honestly floored by the eagerness to tag him as a bust based on such a limited sample. If you watched him against the Clippers (compared with his other stints this year), there were signs of progress.
For some, initial impressions are permanent, despite evidence to the contrary. He's obviously got a long way to go, and may never amount to anything in the Association. But much rather have a promising G League start than the opposite.
I haven’t seen a 24-yr old summer league rookie look out of place and the later move on to a good NBA career so I’d expect Baylor’s chances to be pretty slim. I also still can’t believe people value G-League “success” with more than a grain of salt considering the low level of competition. It’s an indicator of nothing. I’m not hating on Baylor, I didn’t mind the pick….I certainly liked picking someone who “could” contribute to our immediate title hopes over Walsh who wasn’t ever going to (watches TJD contribute in Golden State).
Hauser was probably ready to contribute as a rookie but didn’t have the opportunity and was certainly ready his second year. Baylor had an opportunity in front of him but couldn’t outplay Walsh, who himself isn’t ready, to get on the court.
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I don't remember the exact saying, but it's been said that it shouldn't be surprising or noteworthy when someone does well in summer league, but it is absolutely noteworthy (in a bad way) when a prospect plays poorly in summer league. Doubly so if they are a perimeter player, and triply (is that a word?) so if they are on the older side. Baylor is a 6'6 24 year old who looked like he didn't belong on the court against teenagers and guys at the end of NBA benches. There's no point in writing him off entirely because he's worth nothing in a trade and has a guaranteed deal at least through next season, but let's not pretend him looking awful anytime he squared off against NBA players since being drafted isn't a real downer.
*edit - You can't in one breath call it absurd to make a snap judgement based on summer league and preseason minutes, then in the next talk about him "showing signs of progress" in the literally 5 minutes he played in garbage time against the Clippers. He's made as many baskets in the NBA as Bronny James (1). The kindest thing I can say about him is that the game is way too fast for him right now, hopefully it slows down.
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To me, that's a fair description of the G League, but not so much summer league. Summer league is a free for all and I don't think success or failure says all that much. Jordan Walsh was a disaster in this year's summer league, his second), ansd then he showed up in Boston and had a decent camp. I think any player who is going to need to succeed within a system at the NBA level is not necessarily going to dominate summer league, which is defined by its lack of system.
He didn;t look look awful the last time he squared off against NBA players.
Sure I can, because I'm not arguing that he is going to be good, only the the jury is still out.
10-20% sounds about right to me as well.
As far as the G-League talk above, I agree that busts can have success there.
But it’s also true that if you suck in the G-League over any length of time, you almost definitely suck. A negative indicator as someone said above.
It’s a bit of a zero sum game… if Baylor having a good G-League start means we can’t yet say “he’s definitely a 100% bust already”, the chances he is an NBA player is slightly higher.
Just a note, baseball is actually a sport designed for lefties. It’s the list of great RH hitters that’s short.
Indeed.
1. A full step closer to First
2. Higher % of RHP
3. Larger hole with 1st baseman keeping a baserunner on.
What other advantages does the LHH have?
LHPs have to face more RHHs, which is not as advantageous.
I was surprised at how unkind the NBA was to lefties.
You know it's troubling when Tayshaun Prince hits #25 on any NBA All-Time list
Back in Ye Olden Days, before night lights, southpaws drew some advantage from the lighting and the (generally) lower right field fences (i.e. their arm movement was disguised by the crowds in a way that righties generally weren’t as LF was generally higher wall/bleacher seating).
Is the NBA that unkind to lefties? There are just a lot fewer lefties than righties in the general population, so the top 10 for lefties is like the top 100 for righties.
Obviously in a sport like baseball, lefties get drastically overrepresented because of baseball's structure.
I understand what you’re saying but don’t the Celtics have a very big luxury in being able to actually wait out Baylor?