Baylor Scheierman - 30th pick, RD1

HomeRunBaker

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Naz will be replacing one of KAT or Rudy at some point since that roster is expensive

I'd rather have Tillman than either Smith or Williams.

I'm not sure how long we need to watch the backup BIGs market deteriorate to realize its the one position where a team can derive contract value without worrying about a massive talent downgrade (and this has been going on since the Days of Baynes ;) )
The bolded part is one area I’ve always disagreed with you since the player pool for large humans skilled enough to compete on an NBA floor, and then against NBA playoff teams, is much MUCH smaller than that of wings and guards. We saw this with Tillman last year who aside from one singular game showed to be an awful fit on this team. We saw it the year prior when we acquired Muscala and he couldn’t break into the rotation either. Before that, Hernangomez. Before that Mo Wagner. Imo it is the most difficult position to fill, for a contender, than any other on the roster due to so few candidates out there of that size.
 

lexrageorge

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I don't even necessarily think the should do it, and I think it will be moot because I don't think Scheierman will end up near Hauser's level anytime soon, what I am pushing back on is the idea that we can just find and plug a big into our lineup. The stretch and defense big is a huge part of the system on both ends, particularly offense, and Al Horfords don't grow on trees.
did Boston's offense fall off a cliff every time Luke Kornet played?

CJMs offense isn't predicated on everyone being a 40% 3pt shooter.
CD is correct. At some point, either due to budget (grrrr.....), Horford's retirement, or perhaps an ungraceful aging curve for KP, the Celtics will have to replace their 2 bigs. Yes, finding the #2 big for the team will not be an issue. But it will be a bigger lift than @benhogan realizes to replace what Al and Kristaps bring, and Stevens is not going to find 80% of what they bring by scraping the bottom of the barrel.

Granted, there may not be any feasible alternatives due to the various luxury tax rules. But the impact to the team will be noticeable on both ends of the floor. Bottom line is the this season is as good as any to win #19.
 

lovegtm

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I don't even necessarily think the should do it, and I think it will be moot because I don't think Scheierman will end up near Hauser's level anytime soon, what I am pushing back on is the idea that we can just find and plug a big into our lineup. The stretch and defense big is a huge part of the system on both ends, particularly offense, and Al Horfords don't grow on trees.
I agree strongly there. I think Horford was a $25M-30M player in the 2024 playoffs.

That's why I think, if money is an issue, and Baylor pops, they eventually move on from Jrue and KP, and replace with one good center making $20-30M. Move JB to guard defensively, while Baylor lets you continue playing lineups that have shooters+connectors at all perimeter positions.
 

benhogan

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For the record. I never once said you'd get 80% of KP/Horford from a Fungible 5 like Tillman.

I vehemently push back on the concept of trading Sam Hauser for a backup BIG.

If Baylor can give the team 70% of what Hauser does, the team may want to save a bunch of money next summer by moving Sam (or trading him for a functional backup big if Horford retires.
Brad knows going into this season that KP will be out for ~ 2 months & Al Horford won't be playing on B2Bs. Plus the odds of KP being healthy for the playoffs are tenuous at best.

Yet he isn't engineering any trades around acquiring a BIG. why?

The bolded part is one area I’ve always disagreed with you since the player pool for large humans skilled enough to compete on an NBA floor, and then against NBA playoff teams, is much MUCH smaller than that of wings and guards. We saw this with Tillman last year who aside from one singular game showed to be an awful fit on this team. We saw it the year prior when we acquired Muscala and he couldn’t break into the rotation either. Before that, Hernangomez. Before that Mo Wagner. Imo it is the most difficult position to fill, for a contender, than any other on the roster due to so few candidates out there of that size.
It's a good thing Brad didn't trade Hauser for any of those 3rd string BIGs
 

Cellar-Door

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did Boston's offense fall off a cliff every time Luke Kornet played?

CJMs offense isn't predicated on everyone being a 40% 3pt shooter.
The offense was 12.5 pp100 worse in the playoffs when he was on court so... kind of yeah? Luke Kornet is really nice for the role of playing bench minutes in the regular season against other bench units, he's not a viable replacement for any of the major rotation guys.
 

benhogan

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The offense was 12.5 pp100 worse in the playoffs when he was on court so... kind of yeah? Luke Kornet is really nice for the role of playing bench minutes in the regular season against other bench units, he's not a viable replacement for any of the major rotation guys.
I suspect Kornet played many of his playoff minutes during low-leverage blowouts.

BTW calling fellow regular posters in the Cellar "obtuse" is unnecessary.

The concept of acquiring Back-Up 5s & their value has been debated around here for over a decade.
As HRB noted, we have been having a pillow fight about this for a while.
 

TripleOT

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Hauser might be worth $8 million more than Baylor, but when that $8 million is multiplied by a factor of four to seven in luxtax, is ownership going to be willing to pay that for a 5 ppg playoff scorer? The 24 year old rookie, (only 30 months younger than seven year veteran Tatum) is the most likely Hauser replacement once his money kicks in.

There’s no way I’m ever moving Holiday to save money, unless he falls off a cliff ability-wise. The Jrue-White backcourt pairs perfectly with the Jays, and if ownership needs to pare down salary, they should do it elsewhere. Replacing Hauser and PP with competent rookie scale guys, or competent vetmin ring chasers, is the easiest way to save $40-70 million in luxtax.

Hopefully ownership will continue to be committed to putting the best team on the floor, regardless of the luxury tax burden.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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For the record. I never once said you'd get 80% of KP/Horford from a Fungible 5 like Tillman.

I vehemently push back on the concept of trading Sam Hauser for a backup BIG.
I think your statement about trading Hauser for a backup big is kind of a red herring. The issue is, as Triple OT puts it, the Cs are going to have to shed a bunch of salary at some point in the future. It's not this year - so POBOBS isn't looking to acquire any more backup bigs.

Will it be next season? Hopefully the Cs will be coming off a B2B so the owners (or new owners) will pony up the $500M or so for this roster.

But after that? Right now, Spotrac projections have the Cs like $37M over the cap with only 9 players with cap hits. KP is a free agent. Frankly at that point, it's seems to me that it's not a question of one or another - unless Brad and Zarren comes up with something super creative, it's likely that the Cs will have cheap players at both positions (C and movement shooter).
 

benhogan

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How can you not love a Shawshank reference?

It all comes down to how much will the new CBA force the C's owners to move off the talent in a few seasons.

Mathematically it's not fair to equate moving Hauser (10M) + PP (7M) means keeping Jrue (32M).
$15MM difference at 4-7X tax isn't close.

If moving Jrue is a non-starter, with the JAYs + White staying, we'll need to get really comfortable with a minimum 5 playing a large role.

One way to keep Horford around for as long as possible is to aggressively limit his regular season minutes/games (but let him go in the playoffs), which CJM did last season. Funny enough the very same folks that pushed back on the Horford "shrink wrap" concept last year are the same ones here saying we have a 5 problem. Yeah, I'm the one being obtuse.
 

benhogan

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This guy was making some good points 6-months ago

Boston now has a higher winning percentage, 82%, 14-3 with KP not playing than the 76%, 35-11 when he does play. Credit to Kornet, and Quetta earlier in the season, and to Horford of course.

Impressive to see the Celtics winning at a 67 game pace without KP. The 62 win pace with him isn’t too shabby either. The management of this team‘s big guys has been impeccable this season
 

HomeRunBaker

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Any talk of trading Hauser certainly isn’t happening until he a) sucks or b) Baylor shows to be a competent replacement on his rookie deal.

We can talk away but nothing is happening with Hauser anytime soon.
 

Euclis20

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Any talk of trading Hauser certainly isn’t happening until he a) sucks or b) Baylor shows to be a competent replacement on his rookie deal.

We can talk away but nothing is happening with Hauser anytime soon.
I think Hauser is being somewhat underrated in this discussion generally. Exceptional 3 point shooting, defense good enough to stay on the court all the way through the playoffs, 26 years old, durable, signed longterm at very reasonable money (his most discussed comp is Duncan Robinson, who re-signed with Miami at literally double the cost of Sam's deal with Boston). The odds of Baylor ever being 90% that good are extremely small.
 

lovegtm

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Hauser might be worth $8 million more than Baylor, but when that $8 million is multiplied by a factor of four to seven in luxtax, is ownership going to be willing to pay that for a 5 ppg playoff scorer? The 24 year old rookie, (only 30 months younger than seven year veteran Tatum) is the most likely Hauser replacement once his money kicks in.

There’s no way I’m ever moving Holiday to save money, unless he falls off a cliff ability-wise. The Jrue-White backcourt pairs perfectly with the Jays, and if ownership needs to pare down salary, they should do it elsewhere. Replacing Hauser and PP with competent rookie scale guys, or competent vetmin ring chasers, is the easiest way to save $40-70 million in luxtax.

Hopefully ownership will continue to be committed to putting the best team on the floor, regardless of the luxury tax burden.
The problem is that the choice isn't "PP+Hauser" vs "Jrue". Money-wise, it's "PP+Hauser+$15-20M center" vs Jrue, and that's a much, much different discussion.
 

BigSoxFan

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I get why the luxury tax system is in place but it absolutely sucks that Brad is going to have to undo some of his most clever deals so quickly.
 

Jimbodandy

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I think Hauser is being somewhat underrated in this discussion generally. Exceptional 3 point shooting, defense good enough to stay on the court all the way through the playoffs, 26 years old, durable, signed longterm at very reasonable money (his most discussed comp is Duncan Robinson, who re-signed with Miami at literally double the cost of Sam's deal with Boston). The odds of Baylor ever being 90% that good are extremely small.
And Robinson gets played off the floor in high leverage against a ton of lineups. Guy can't hold a candle to Sam defensively.
 

lovegtm

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I think Hauser is being somewhat underrated in this discussion generally. Exceptional 3 point shooting, defense good enough to stay on the court all the way through the playoffs, 26 years old, durable, signed longterm at very reasonable money (his most discussed comp is Duncan Robinson, who re-signed with Miami at literally double the cost of Sam's deal with Boston). The odds of Baylor ever being 90% that good are extremely small.
Exactly. You thank your lucky stars that you have 4 years of this guy at $45M, and figure everything else out around him, because it's incredibly hard to get that contract value anywhere if you make a deal.

People who get dealt for money reasons before Hauser, in order: PP, KP, Jrue.

Also, to reinforce your point on Duncan Robinson: in cap % terms, Duncan's contract would be equivalent to Sam making about $22M next year.
 

BaseballJones

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I get why the luxury tax system is in place but it absolutely sucks that Brad is going to have to undo some of his most clever deals so quickly.
He wouldn't if the guys he did a great job acquiring didn't do so well as to garner a big pay raise. :)
 

benhogan

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And Robinson gets played off the floor in high leverage against a ton of lineups. Guy can't hold a candle to Sam defensively.
The defense is massively different. The 3pt shooting hasn't been very similar either

The last 3 seasons of 3pt% (on similar attempts/36)
Hauser
43.2%
41.8%
42.4%

Duncan
37.2%
32.8%
39.5%
 

Euclis20

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He wouldn't if the guys he did a great job acquiring didn't do so well as to garner a big pay raise. :)
They won't feel it until next season, but the combined raises for Tatum/Hauser/White is about $33M. No one on the roster is overpaid, which is more than we can say about Phoenix, whose tax bill is nearly 3x as high as Boston's this season (Beal will be making about $1M/game, good lord).
 

BaseballJones

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They won't feel it until next season, but the combined raises for Tatum/Hauser/White is about $33M. No one on the roster is overpaid, which is more than we can say about Phoenix, whose tax bill is nearly 3x as high as Boston's this season (Beal will be making about $1M/game, good lord).
Wow. Some of the contract that some of these guys have when they're so clearly not the best players...is just amazing.
 

Euclis20

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The defense is massively different. The 3pt shooting hasn't been very similar either

The last 3 seasons of 3pt% (on similar attempts/36)
Hauser
43.2%
41.8%
42.4%

Duncan
37.2%
32.8%
39.5%
I hate defending Duncan Robinson, but I think his major problem is that the Heat just didn't have enough depth around him. By any stretch Hauser's postseason was a huge success, but it's a lot easier to avoid being overexposed if you play just 15 mpg (that was both his playoff and finals average mpg). His first couple seasons in Miami, Robinson was starting and playing 25-30 mpg in the playoffs before dropping way off. I don't know what happened (maybe he got his money and stopped trying, or maybe he was finally exposed after nearly 3000 minutes), but Miami has historically had to rely on Robinson for too much, and now he's broken. Unless something happens to Brown or Tatum, Boston will never need to put Hauser in that situation (all three guys are guaranteed through 2029).
 

benhogan

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I hate defending Duncan Robinson, but I think his major problem is that the Heat just didn't have enough depth around him. By any stretch Hauser's postseason was a huge success, but it's a lot easier to avoid being overexposed if you play just 15 mpg (that was both his playoff and finals average mpg). His first couple seasons in Miami, Robinson was starting and playing 25-30 mpg in the playoffs before dropping way off. I don't know what happened (maybe he got his money and stopped trying, or maybe he was finally exposed after nearly 3000 minutes), but Miami has historically had to rely on Robinson for too much, and now he's broken. Unless something happens to Brown or Tatum, Boston will never need to put Hauser in that situation (all three guys are guaranteed through 2029).
Thats fair. The same thing kind of happened with Max Strus. One season of 41% 3pt shooting. Teams start paying him extra attention and then he pumpkins to a 35% 3pt shooter (in fairness, Duncan is a much better shooter than Max)

Sam Hauser gets attention, spreads the floor, and is always above 40%. Every college season, G-League season + 3 NBA seasons. 8 straight years. Only a handful of legendary 3pt shooters are that consistent.

Further, I wouldn't be shocked if Sam takes it up a notch with contract security, along with playing next to several All-Stars.

I'd be thrilled if Baylor scratched the surface, but I'm still not dealing Hauser.
 
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HomeRunBaker

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I think Hauser is being somewhat underrated in this discussion generally. Exceptional 3 point shooting, defense good enough to stay on the court all the way through the playoffs, 26 years old, durable, signed longterm at very reasonable money (his most discussed comp is Duncan Robinson, who re-signed with Miami at literally double the cost of Sam's deal with Boston). The odds of Baylor ever being 90% that good are extremely small.
Right. The best case scenario is for Baylor to one day be as productive on this team as Hauser. Sam is in a perfect spot for his skillset and got lucky to land in this opportunist spot. Had he been drafted by Charlotte he may have been on his was to Istanbul this past summer.
 

brendan f

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I don't even necessarily think the should do it, and I think it will be moot because I don't think Scheierman will end up near Hauser's level anytime soon, what I am pushing back on is the idea that we can just find and plug a big into our lineup. The stretch and defense big is a huge part of the system on both ends, particularly offense, and Al Horfords don't grow on trees.
Not necessarily agreeing with this, but Jay King of the Athletic opined on his podcast today that Scheierman's added weight and knack for defensive rebounding might have the C's thinking of him as a 3/4.
 

lovegtm

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Not necessarily agreeing with this, but Jay King of the Athletic opined on his podcast today that Scheierman's added weight and knack for defensive rebounding might have the C's thinking of him as a 3/4.
Would make sense, can avoid having him defend quicker guys all the time, if he's strong enough.
 

brendan f

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Would make sense, can avoid having him defend quicker guys all the time, if he's strong enough.
I'm intrigued. Most of us just assumed he's the Hauser replacement, but what if the plan is for him to replace Al? Maybe a long shot, but not impossible.
 

Imbricus

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Yeah, we better not get out over our skis on Scheierman. A 6'6" guy with a 6'8 1/4" wingspan and 32" vertical leap isn't going to be spending a lot of time at the 5, or even the 4 probably.
 

brendan f

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Yeah, we better not get out over our skis on Scheierman. A 6'6" guy with a 6'8 1/4" wingspan and 32" vertical leap isn't going to be spending a lot of time at the 5, or even the 4 probably.
As, I said, it's unlikely. But as CD pointed out, replacing Horford as a 5 is nearly impossible. You just can't find bigs who do what he does. So the next best thing may be to try and get someone like Sheireman to play "up" as a big and take advantage of the skills he offers as a shooter, rebounder, and passer.
 

PedroKsBambino

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I think the unique skills and size of the Jays maybe gets us too loose with projecting small-ball lineups generally. They are able to play up to the 4 and 5 for stretches, but they are also very much the exception league-wise. For every Jay or Anunoby or Draymond Green who can do that, I think you'll find ten teams who decide they need at least one 250 lb or 6-10 big to be in the paint.

There's little in Baylor's profile or skillset that suggests to me he's ever going to play bigger than a 3. Much more likely the replacement for Al is a Tillman-type (broad skillset but not elite at most/any of them) or they simply get a very different profile at the 5 - a TL type who doesn't give any of the shooting, but provides something else in a good way; a stretch 5 who is just adequate at defense (think a better defensive version of Muscala), etc.

The only guy who I think sort of replaces Al's skillset is Wendell Carter Jr, and while he was a little available a year or two ago I just don't see a near-term path. Maybe we get lucky and they pine for shooting, etc. But it's a very, very difficult profile and I doubt we can truly replace it when Al retires....we just have to adjust with other guys stepping up and filling some part of what he brings.
 

pjheff

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As, I said, it's unlikely. But as CD pointed out, replacing Horford as a 5 is nearly impossible. You just can't find bigs who do what he does. So the next best thing may be to try and get someone like Sheireman to play "up" as a big and take advantage of the skills he offers as a shooter, rebounder, and passer.
If Scheierman adds the 15 pounds, he’s still a hair shorter and lighter than Hauser, and no one is talking about Hauser as a big.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Yeah, we better not get out over our skis on Scheierman. A 6'6" guy with a 6'8 1/4" wingspan and 32" vertical leap isn't going to be spending a lot of time at the 5, or even the 4 probably.
This thread has gone off the rails. Scheierman’s skillset is that of a traditional 2 and in todays game he’s going to be in that 2/3 wing role. There isn’t a world where he is considered a big and if I’m honest I’m even more concerned that the team is having him GAIN weight when the move to the NBA generally requires losing weight and body fat to become more lean and sleek to compete against NBA-level athleticism. I didn’t really like what he showed in SL but it is SL….I’m probably more concerned with the team making a radical shift in wanting him bigger rather than leaner.
 

brendan f

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This thread has gone off the rails. Scheierman’s skillset is that of a traditional 2 and in todays game he’s going to be in that 2/3 wing role. There isn’t a world where he is considered a big and if I’m honest I’m even more concerned that the team is having him GAIN weight when the move to the NBA generally requires losing weight and body fat to become more lean and sleek to compete against NBA-level athleticism. I didn’t really like what he showed in SL but it is SL….I’m probably more concerned with the team making a radical shift in wanting him bigger rather than leaner.
Not saying this is gospel but this is coming from a reputable guy. He's not sourcing, just giving his take:
Jay King of the Athletic:
"[Scheierman ]averaged 9 rebounds per game in college. He's a great defensive rebounder, so for me that can allow you to play the 4, to play in smaller lineups if you're that good on the glass but you have to be able to withstand the physicality and so I think turning him into a 4 the way the league is evolving, makes all the sense in the world. And of course you want him to have the versatility to play 3, if you need him to, 2, but he's a guy without a ton of lateral quickness, so for me guarding up is his best bet because the rebounding is so good."
 

benhogan

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This thread has gone off the rails. Scheierman’s skillset is that of a traditional 2 and in todays game he’s going to be in that 2/3 wing role. There isn’t a world where he is considered a big and if I’m honest I’m even more concerned that the team is having him GAIN weight when the move to the NBA generally requires losing weight and body fat to become more lean and sleek to compete against NBA-level athleticism. I didn’t really like what he showed in SL but it is SL….I’m probably more concerned with the team making a radical shift in wanting him bigger rather than leaner.
There is zero chance Baylor is a BIG.

BUT there is a chance we will see Tatum, Brown, Hauser, Jrue, White lineup more this season.

Maybe Jay King is projecting that a larger Baylor could be substituted for anyone not named Tatum/Brown in that lineup.
AND help on the defensive boards, while spreading the floor on offense.

IDK I'm kind of neutral on Baylor. l like him better than Walsh but still somewhat skeptical
 

lovegtm

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I was imprecise with "Baylor as a 4". That phrase (if his offense plays) really should be changed to "plays in switch 1-4 or switch everything lineups."

He'd be the 2 or 3 in those lineups though.
 

mwonow

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Something about his shot just looks weird to me, maybe just that he's lefthanded? I don't know.
It does look weird, and not just because it's a lefty - he almost has like a sidearm-push thing happening.

If/when it works, that's great, but it seems like if he gets a bit out of sorts, it would be hard to bring his stroke back to 'normal.'
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Something about his shot just looks weird to me, maybe just that he's lefthanded? I don't know.
he doesn’t have a ton of arc on his shot so as mwonow mentions, it looks like he’s pushing it. It may also be that he needs to do this to get out to NBA range. But most of his mechanics look smooth and repeatable. Here’s a video from his pre-Creighton days - more arc when shooting from NCAA three-point line.

View: https://youtu.be/HmznOQ9_dR8?si=wYyA1TkOyCU8-etE
 

Eddie Jurak

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he doesn’t have a ton of arc on his shot so as mwonow mentions, it looks like he’s pushing it. It may also be that he needs to do this to get out to NBA range. But most of his mechanics look smooth and repeatable. Here’s a video from his pre-Creighton days - more arc when shooting from NCAA three-point line.
Yeah, I'm not claiming to be a shot doctor or anything. It just looks weird to me, for reasons I couldn;t even describe. If it works for him, more power to him.

The last guy I thought had a weird looking shot was Malcolm Brogdon, who is a career 39% shooter who hit 44% while he was here. I had no complaints about him and I hope Scheierman has similar success.

Shot aside, it was nice to see him fill up the stat sheet. I know it is the G, but it was literally his first game. Not every wing drops 31-7-7 with a steal and 2 blocks in their first game in the G.
 

BaseballJones

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he doesn’t have a ton of arc on his shot so as mwonow mentions, it looks like he’s pushing it. It may also be that he needs to do this to get out to NBA range. But most of his mechanics look smooth and repeatable. Here’s a video from his pre-Creighton days - more arc when shooting from NCAA three-point line.

View: https://youtu.be/HmznOQ9_dR8?si=wYyA1TkOyCU8-etE
I don't at all like how he catches the ball high, then dips low, then rises again with his shot. It's so much unnecessary and wasted motion, and it slows his release down considerably. The idea is that you want to catch the ball with a lower posture, knees already bent, so all you have to do is rise and shoot, not drop, rise, and shoot. That extra movement costs him about 2/10ths of a second, which is enough time for an NBA player to easily cover like 6 feet of space when closing out. If he saved that 2/10th of a second, that would turn non-shots into contested shots, contested shots into open shots, and open shots into wide open shots.
 

JoeSuit

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I think his shot looks different because he appears less squared up than most. Sometimes it looks like he "unsquares" if that makes sense.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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I don't at all like how he catches the ball high, then dips low, then rises again with his shot. It's so much unnecessary and wasted motion, and it slows his release down considerably. The idea is that you want to catch the ball with a lower posture, knees already bent, so all you have to do is rise and shoot, not drop, rise, and shoot. That extra movement costs him about 2/10ths of a second, which is enough time for an NBA player to easily cover like 6 feet of space when closing out. If he saved that 2/10th of a second, that would turn non-shots into contested shots, contested shots into open shots, and open shots into wide open shots.
I suspect he’s going to get rid of the dip before long. Walsh did.