Baylor Scheierman - 30th pick, RD1
- Thread starter ifmanis5
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When we called it a weak draft we didn’t mean that everyone sucked, we meant that it sucked to be the Atnalta Hawks, who landed #1 and likely a guy whose upside is top 100 player. It was a roleplayer draft from the start. Also, while Scheierman isn’t an elite athlete, he’s also not a bad one. His lane agility and shuttle times were pretty good. He’ll be fine in his role.
A lot of the experts say this draft was very weak at the top, ok from 8-20 with a significant drop after that. Vecenie covers it here in The Athletic.
2024 Draft
“
Vecenie: I do think this draft will end up returning below-average commensurate value, but it’s worth noting that this is mostly something that public-facing people care about. NBA teams only have to find between one to four players depending on the year and the number of picks they have. They have a very different job than I do.
I think there isn’t the enormous talent level at the top that you typically see in a draft. I don’t have any Tier 1 or Tier 2 players in this class in my grading scale, and I’m typically not stingy with those grades. I’ve had 16 of them in the last four years. There are players who come out of Tier 3 and 4 to become All-Stars — I would expect a few will in this class. However, I don’t know there is a single prospect for whom I’ll look at what their median value can be projected as and say that I feel confident saying he will become an All-Star.
Having said that, I like the talent in the range from, say, No. 8 to No. 20. That group is, at the very least, on the same level as a normal draft, if not a bit stronger. From No. 25 or so on downward, I have fewer guarantee grades but more two-way grades than I normally do in a typical draft”
The good news is Vecenie liked Baylor and had him as his 22 overall.
2024 Draft
“
Vecenie: I do think this draft will end up returning below-average commensurate value, but it’s worth noting that this is mostly something that public-facing people care about. NBA teams only have to find between one to four players depending on the year and the number of picks they have. They have a very different job than I do.
I think there isn’t the enormous talent level at the top that you typically see in a draft. I don’t have any Tier 1 or Tier 2 players in this class in my grading scale, and I’m typically not stingy with those grades. I’ve had 16 of them in the last four years. There are players who come out of Tier 3 and 4 to become All-Stars — I would expect a few will in this class. However, I don’t know there is a single prospect for whom I’ll look at what their median value can be projected as and say that I feel confident saying he will become an All-Star.
Having said that, I like the talent in the range from, say, No. 8 to No. 20. That group is, at the very least, on the same level as a normal draft, if not a bit stronger. From No. 25 or so on downward, I have fewer guarantee grades but more two-way grades than I normally do in a typical draft”
The good news is Vecenie liked Baylor and had him as his 22 overall.
I don’t know about this. Kennard was a lottery pick in his draft. The importance of shooting has increased since then, especially when evaluating prospects, and Scheierman just barely got picked in the 1st round in one of the worst drafts of our lifetimes.
I would tell people to temper their expectations for Baylor. I actually like the pick but I think some of the posts in this thread are pretty unrealistic
Well Scheierman is guaranteed $12.8M I think so he's already going to make a bunch of money.
But saying that Scheierman is at minimum going to bounce around the league for abunch of years and make at least a couple of million each year - like Kennard or Ingles or Joe Harris or Hauser or Monk (etc.) - is not really expecting a ton from him. And even though the class might have been weak overall, it seems like it had a pretty decent bunch of shooters. See, e.g., https://www.nba.com/magic/news/2024-nba-draft-class-filled-with-quality-outside-shooters-20240603
Bob Ryan and Jeff Goodman on Baylor. Ryan says that Baylor has been on POBOBS's radar screen for a while because Kyle Marshall, who played for POBOBS, was an assistant at S. Dakota State.
Goodman: Baylor Scheierman is a BALLER, Will Have a Role on Celtics (youtube.com)
Goodman: Baylor Scheierman is a BALLER, Will Have a Role on Celtics (youtube.com)
None of those guys made "a couple of million each year", 4 signed at least 1 pretty big contract, the 5th isn't eligible yet but likely will soon. Baylor being as good as the worst one of them (probably Kennard) would be above the median expectation of any 30th pick.Well Scheierman is guaranteed $12.8M I think so he's already going to make a bunch of money.
But saying that Scheierman is at minimum going to bounce around the league for abunch of years and make at least a couple of million each year - like Kennard or Ingles or Joe Harris or Hauser or Monk (etc.) - is not really expecting a ton from him. And even though the class might have been weak overall, it seems like it had a pretty decent bunch of shooters. See, e.g., https://www.nba.com/magic/news/2024-nba-draft-class-filled-with-quality-outside-shooters-20240603
yeah, Ingles played 25-30 minutes every year on a playoff team for close to a decade (and he came over at 27), Joe Harris was a swing starter into his 30s until his body broke down, Monk is only 25 and he's been a top 5 6MOY candidate back to back years (his only couple million deal was the Lakers one where he was coming off a drug suspension and looking for minutes) Kennard has been a 20-30 MPG guy on teams that expect to be in the playoffs (and has been traded as the main piece in a 1st round pick deal twice).
If Scheierman is any of those guys it's a home run 30th pick, and honestly probably a very good pick anywhere outside the top 10 (maybe top 5... 5th starters don't grow on trees)
His Junior season at S. Dakota State was massive (Horizon League POTY).
47% from 3 (83/177 3PA) after 44% the prior season (57/130) on a decent volume
An increase in 3PA at Creighton along with more defensive attention probably dampened his 3pt%.
I like the idea of him being an off-ball bench option, especially from the Corner (along with him crashing the boards)
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/scheiba01.html
47% from 3 (83/177 3PA) after 44% the prior season (57/130) on a decent volume
An increase in 3PA at Creighton along with more defensive attention probably dampened his 3pt%.
I like the idea of him being an off-ball bench option, especially from the Corner (along with him crashing the boards)
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/scheiba01.html
I just saw this and as a afficianado of bad puns and word play, I just had to say you jumped so high, so high, nicely done.
@AdamTaylorNBA
posted this analysis on Scheierman today:
https://celticschronicle.com/p/baylor-scheierman-scouting-report
posted this analysis on Scheierman today:
https://celticschronicle.com/p/baylor-scheierman-scouting-report
Thanks for posting, good piece by Adam Taylor.
With his rebounding prowess, maybe Baylor should be considered a Svi/Brissett combo Wing-type
I don't love the Hauser comps, since Sam is an exceptional 3pt shooter & a good NBA defender.
I'm still expecting Brad to get a discounted extension done with Glushon/SH before the start of the season.
Good article. I appreciate the numbers, particularly on his defense. Thanks for the gift article.
Yeah thanks for that, very well done. Looking forward to seeing Mr. BS in the summer league.
Thanks for posting. As I’m reading I’m thinking of a physical comp and Joe Ingles came to mind…..then Baylor mentioned him in the piece. While his game is different than Hauser’s that is the role he will be filling on the team and imo the player he’ll be replacing in ‘25-‘26 if he shows well as a rookie.
I'm kind of glad Brad drafted older/established rookies that are filled out instead of the JDD/Jordan Walsh 19-year-old Bambi's.
Within 2 years we'll know if Baylor (maybe) or Watson (doubtful) are rotational bench players.
As you know I’m a huge proponent of contenders drafting older players who can contribute on their rookie deal and just as much against drafting high ceiling guys when rebuilding (have I ever mentioned my opinion of Olynyk?
) It’s why I was anti-Walsh last year and pro-Trayce JD.So much of the draft is a crapshoot whoever you draft no matter how strong your opinion may be…..but the one controllable is the type of player you draft based on your teams positioning.
View: https://twitter.com/BrianTRobb/status/1839409647834612171
New: The Celtics gave Baylor Scheierman an assignment after summer league and it's already paying dividends in camp:
View: https://twitter.com/NoaDalzell/status/1839369420852093221
Baylor Scheierman said he’s gained 10-15 pounds since summer league, & that he’s worked with Sam Hauser: “He’s one of the best shooters in the league.” Baylor wants to emulate: “How he prepares for workouts, what he does after his workouts.”
New: The Celtics gave Baylor Scheierman an assignment after summer league and it's already paying dividends in camp:
View: https://twitter.com/NoaDalzell/status/1839369420852093221
Baylor Scheierman said he’s gained 10-15 pounds since summer league, & that he’s worked with Sam Hauser: “He’s one of the best shooters in the league.” Baylor wants to emulate: “How he prepares for workouts, what he does after his workouts.”
100% agree.As you know I’m a huge proponent of contenders drafting older players who can contribute on their rookie deal and just as much against drafting high ceiling guys when rebuilding (have I ever mentioned my opinion of Olynyk?
It’s why I was anti-Walsh last year and pro-Trayce JD.So much of the draft is a crapshoot whoever you draft no matter how strong your opinion may be…..but the one controllable is the type of player you draft based on your teams positioning.
I'm trying to keep an open mind about Walsh for the next few months but its is a sub-optimal roster spot for him & Boston. He'll eventually need NBA minutes to develop & there isn't a road for that
It's just really really hard for a guy like Walsh to make it in the modern NBA.
It's hard for a team's offensive ecosystem to function when it's playing a no-offense wing.
The Celtics broke the Mavs' offense by ignoring their no-offense wings/guards, and all those guys are way better offensively than Walsh is.
Baylor's task is a lot easier: have his shot translate, be who he already is putting the ball on the floor, and hold up on defense.
Hauser is fantastic value and they need that with the JAYs owning a majority of payroll. Keep Baylor also if he pops.
They can get fungible BIGs at a minimum that can do 80-90% of expensive 5s. It's going to be fun watching this team win with KornXQ playing major minutes at the 5 the first two months.
Brad isn't trading WING asset gold like Sam Hauser for a back-up 5
Walsh may get to the level where he's playable as a shooter---35% in G League on 5.6 attempts/game isn't great, but it also isn't hopeless. FT is only low-70s, so there's lots of reasons for doubt. But it is still early.
I think what you want from Walsh this year and next is to be a really solid defensive player who can be a junk guy on offense while the shot has a chance to develop. But as you note above, odds are a guy with that profile never makes it, and with Celtics may never get the minutes to even find out. So I join you guys in not giving him a great chance, but I do think plus athlete who is young and has shown some defensive chops is not yet hopeless?
They'd trade KP before Hauser imo.
11M is really low money for a guy as good as he is.
They cannot approach 80-90% of Horford/Porzingis value with a min 5. They can't even get 50%. I get the theory, but in practice you cannot actually do what you suggest....and there just aren't many (if any) examples of championship teams with min starting 5s. And no, Tatum as 5 is not right around the corner and not obviously ever a realistic plan.
They need one quality big, at a minimum.
Porzingis no, but 80-90% of 2024 Horford? They might already have that guy on the roster, on a 2 year minimum deal. I've got pretty high hopes for Tillman this season, and he'll get plenty of run at least until KP comes back.
I'm big on Tillman as well, but he's no Horford---he's an inferior shooter by a big margin, inferior passer. May be inferior defender---though with age, maybe not today?
Anyway, I hope you're right that Tillman makes it a good discussion, and I too have some optimism on Tillman (posted it in one of these threads the other day, even!)
But I do not think Tillman as your primary 5 is enough, though if it ever would be it would be with Jays, White, and Jrue around him...
And Sam will go off and help some other team. Hauser being paid gave him the security to do precisely what you described which is train a potential replacement. To your point, if Scheierman develops it helps the team keep the Jay-window open for a bit longer. Let's hope it plays out.
If Baylor (or another wing) gets gud, the non-KP guy who is gone is Jrue, eventually. JB would guard guards, which he already does a lot.
If there's a cap casualty, it will be one or both of KP or Jrue well before Hauser, simply because their numbers are so, so much bigger.
If there's a cap casualty, it will be one or both of KP or Jrue well before Hauser, simply because their numbers are so, so much bigger.
Baylor at rookie scale could save ownership $40-50 million over Hauser in seasons down the road. One has to think if he shows the ability to hit threes and play passable defense, it wouldn’t be unreasonable for ownership to make that move.
I can see KP moving on, but Jrue is just too good as a connector. I hope he plays out his Boston contract right into retirement
Luke or Tillman could easily be a "functional backup BIG" on a Championship team since that's precisely what they were for the majority of their 16-3 bludgeoning a few months ago.
As far as them starting? IDK, but we'll see how they fare over the next few months.
I'm certainly not trading Sam Hauser. I mean we just saw the asset cost for KP, who was coming off his best season with the Wizards. Brad matched salary + a 2nd.
Sam would be a starting WING for 80% of NBA teams. 4yrs at $12MM is worth a gazillion more than a backup 5
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I too, would prefer to see the Celtics spend All The Money for the next 4 years.
However, if they are not willing/able to do so, and Baylor is decent, you probably do better with Hauser+Baylor+a decent center+less money spent than Jrue+Baylor and no decent center options, which would be the real choice here.
I agree that he's nowhere near Horford as a shooter and likely never will be, but I think he's already fairly close defensively, and he provides other things on offense that 38 year old Horford just can't. Everyone loves that all 8 main rotation guys are ++ 3 point shooters, but it doesn't actually have to be that way for the offense to be incredible. Kornet led the team in offensive rating each of the last two years while making a grand total of 4 3 pointers total. He's not there yet but I'm optimistic he's got some room to grow, and if it's between keeping the 6 perimeter guys together and filling in the center gaps with two guys like Tillman vs shipping out Hauser for a slightly better version, I'm taking the former.
You can get Bigs who can do 80% of limited expensive 5s, you can't get bigs who can do what Al Horford and KP do, they are among the very few guys who are excellent 3pt shooters and rim protectors at the same time. (Also Al is an elite passer who can defend decently on switches, and KP is the best elbow post player in the league perhaps). The bare minimum to replace them is hard to find and unless you draft it, very expensive.
I love me some Al Horford, especially at $10MM. He is also dirt cheap. We all are hoping he stays for another season after this (AH extension is on my Wish List)
Tillman's defensive chops are better than he showed when he was injured after the trade deadline. I think we'll be pleasantly surprised with his big man perimeter D. As @Euclis20 noted above Luke has been very efficient & seems to be improving every season. The C's are in really good shape at the 5, even with the KP injury.
Let's hope the NEW owners or Wyc spend all the $$$ in the world BUT at some point we may need to prepare ourselves on not having 5 well-paid All-Star level starters. Brad will need to dig for value.
I'd rather have Hauser + X on a minimum than a Center like Nurkic, Isaiah Stewart, Gafford, TimeLord, Zach Collins, MRob, Olynyk that all fall in that 12MM-19MM range. Tillman can easily do 80-90% of that crew. Even Poeltl, who I like, at $20MM isn't worth that much more than Tillman.
He's a 27% shooter from deep, Kornet is a non-shooter. Sure they will likely have to take a step back at some point, but what they have now, and what you get for the minimum in terms of bigs are guys who don't really fit the system the Celtics want to play. If Schneirman hits, he can replace what Sam Hauser gives you as the 7th to 9th man a lot better than Kornet or Tillman can replace what Horford (or KP when he's out) gives you. They just don't have one of the single most important skillsets Mazzulla wants out of his center.
KP/Horford are fantastic.
Feel free to name the Centers on your wish list to replace KP/Horford, that are cheap, available, and much better than Tillman & Luke?
3pt shooting from your 5th offensive option may not be the end all/be all you think it is. Especially if your bench shooters are Hauser & PP who are draining 3s at a high rate. Getting a screen setter, roller & +++defense from your 5 will be helpful, especially if they are cheap. The good thing is we'll get an early season audition with KP out, we'll see how they fare playing with 4 All-Star level starters.
The bolded is EXACTLY why the original poster was saying they would like to trade for one in the summer (or a pick to try and draft one) they are few and far between. Off the top of my head guys in that salary range who might be that guy.... Naz Reid, Jalen Smith if the shooting stays, Jaylin Williams? There may be more after this year. It was more a comment on the long term value of someone who can approach Horford's skillset (at a lower level) versus 2 guys with Hauser's given the composition of the roster, and relative rarity of stretch bigs who can defend vs. shooter wings.
Actual volume, movement shooter wings who can credibly defend (as opposed to guys who make 38% on 3 attempts/game) are rare, and get paid quite well. I get the point of needing a quality center, but I think you're severely underestimating Hauser's value on his current contract, and the gap Baylor would need to make up to replace what he brings.
Naz will be replacing one of KAT or Rudy at some point since that roster is expensive
I'd rather have Tillman than either Smith or Williams.
I'm not sure how long we need to watch the backup BIGs market deteriorate to realize its the one position where a team can derive contract value without worrying about a massive talent downgrade (and this has been going on since the Days of Baynes
)
I feel like you are being deliberately obtuse so there is no conversation to be had if you keep acting like Bigs don't have different skillsets and sure you can add a big cheap if you are willing to change the offensive system entirely from the one that made you the best team in the league.Naz will be replacing one of KAT or Rudy at some point since that roster is expensive
I'd rather have Tillman than either Smith or Williams.
I'm not sure how long we need to watch the backup BIGs market deteriorate to realize its the one position where a team can derive contract value without worrying about a massive talent downgrade (and this has been going on since the Days of Baynes
Reading this shortly after reading about how Cuban lost Brunson because he was obsessed about trying to acquire a backup big in this thread and I'm just nodding in agreement with benhogan.I'm not sure how long we need to watch the backup BIGs market deteriorate to realize its the one position where a team can derive contract value without worrying about a massive talent downgrade (and this has been going on since the Days of Baynes
Cuban ended up getting Washington as a back up for a 2nd. I'd think Brad would be nuts trading Hauser for that.
I don't even necessarily think the should do it, and I think it will be moot because I don't think Scheierman will end up near Hauser's level anytime soon, what I am pushing back on is the idea that we can just find and plug a big into our lineup. The stretch and defense big is a huge part of the system on both ends, particularly offense, and Al Horfords don't grow on trees.
did Boston's offense fall off a cliff every time Luke Kornet played?
CJMs offense isn't predicated on everyone being a 40% 3pt shooter.