Baserunning Blues

[ivanvamp]

Last year the Red Sox were excellent on the base paths.  This year, not so much.
 
Last year they ran into 59 outs on the base paths (not counting sb attempts).  And they were caught stealing 19 times.  That's 78 outs on the base paths in 162 games.
 
This year, in 32 games, they've run into 12 outs on the base paths and they've been caught stealing 8 times.  That's 20 outs on the base paths.  Project that over 162 games and they are on pace to run into 101 outs on the base paths.  
 
Moreover, last year they took an extra 173 bases plus 123 stolen bases for a total of 296 extra bases taken.
 
This year?  They've taken 32 bases plus 10 stolen bases for a total of 42 extra bases taken.  Project that over 162 games and they are on pace to grab an extra 212.
 
So this year's pace compared to last year (2014 is projected from current pace):
 
Extra bases taken:
- 2013:  296
- 2014:  212
 
Outs made on the base paths:
- 2013:  78
- 2014:  101
 
All told, that's a -84 extra bases taken, and 23 more outs made on the base paths.  
 
Now, I know we're just a fifth of the way through the year, and some of this can be attributed to fewer base runners having opportunities to take extra bases.  But their SB% is horrible (last year it was #1 in the majors; this year, it's #29), and they are just making more outs on the base paths while not grabbing as many.
 
I wonder just how much can be attributed to losing Ellsbury, who alone accounted for 74 extra bases taken (bases taken + stolen bases).  

 

[Harry Hooper]

This year's Sox evoke memories of Farrell's Toronto clubs on the basepaths.

 

[InsideTheParker]

I believe that you have answered your own question.  Ten more bases taken above your projections and they have caught up minus Ellsbury's.

 
 
I wonder just how much can be attributed to losing Ellsbury, who alone accounted for 74 extra bases taken (bases taken + stolen bases).  

 

[Plympton91]

I believe that you have answered your own question.  Ten more bases taken above your projections and they have caught up minus Ellsbury's.

I think going from Drew to Bogarts is also a downgrade in the base running department. And they didn't have Victorino for most of the first month. Having him back should help at least a little bit.

 

[InsideTheParker]

I think going from Drew to Bogarts is also a downgrade in the base running department. And they didn't have Victorino for most of the first month. Having him back should help at least a little bit.

Don't forget Iggy. As a general rule (relying only on my memory; await correction if wrong), he seemed to make things happen on the basepaths.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

Iggy was only on base 9 times through this date last year, so his numbers don't much enter into the discussion.  Yet.

 

[Plympton91]

Is there any reason to worry that Pedroia has lost a step over the winter? Or is he trying to steal in more obvious situations and that accounts for the fact that he can't get there? Or is he just having a slump in reading pitchers and getting jumps?

 

[ivanvamp]

Sox are now 11-20 in stolen bases this year.  Yuck.

 

[joe dokes]

Is there any reason to worry that Pedroia has lost a step over the winter? Or is he trying to steal in more obvious situations and that accounts for the fact that he can't get there? Or is he just having a slump in reading pitchers and getting jumps?

 
I'll go with door #2. I think he's pushing the envelope because of the team's generally slumpy offense.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Pedroia has never been all that fleet afoot.  Many if not most of his steals are based on picking the right spots (pitch-wise in particular) and getting really good jumps.  Unlike an Ellsbury or a Billy Hamilton, he has never been one who can simply outrun a poor jump or a great pitch/throw combo from the battery.  I think it's less that he's lost a step than that he's being overly aggressive in the wrong spots.

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

Pedroia has never been all that fleet afoot.  Many if not most of his steals are based on picking the right spots (pitch-wise in particular) and getting really good jumps.  Unlike an Ellsbury or a Billy Hamilton, he has never been one who can simply outrun a poor jump or a great pitch/throw combo from the battery.  I think it's less that he's lost a step than that he's being overly aggressive in the wrong spots.

 
The Reds announcers last night were saying that the catcher who threw out Pedroia (Barnhart) was named the Gold Glove Catcher for the entire minor leagues last year (or the year before) .. so he obviously has a pretty good arm - which was on display.

 

[smastroyin]

At the game we were discussing the stupidity of the steal and think it was actually called for given the actions of Victorino and base coaches when the pitch was delivered.  I'm sure there was some discussion and Pedroia thought he could read the move.  He got a decent but not great jump and it was an easy pitch for the catcher to handle, so the good throw beat him.

 

[CoRP]

 
The Reds announcers last night were saying that the catcher who threw out Pedroia (Barnhart) was named the Gold Glove Catcher for the entire minor leagues last year (or the year before) .. so he obviously has a pretty good arm - which was on display.

There should be a Gold Arm award just for catchers (and maybe right fielders).

 

[twothousandone]

Is there any reason to worry that Pedroia has lost a step over the winter? Or is he trying to steal in more obvious situations and that accounts for the fact that he can't get there? Or is he just having a slump in reading pitchers and getting jumps?

 

 
I'll go with door #2. I think he's pushing the envelope because of the team's generally slumpy offense.

 
We'd rather that be the answer, right? But if he were just a bit slower than last year, which was just a bit slower than the year before, that could be the difference. It doesn't have to be raw speed, it can be acceleration time. Sample size isn't large enough to determine, so unless someone has a watch on him, it's an unknown. But is it really such a leap to suggest at age 30, his wheels are a bit slower?

 

[Eddie Jurak]

They ran into more outs yesterday.  It seems as if they are caught in a vicious cycle.  
 
The offense is struggling, so they are more aggressive on the bases, particularly in key situations where an extra run might make a difference.
 
But they are foolishly overaggressive, so instead of scoring runs in key situations they are running into outs instead.
 
Giving up extra outs only deepens their offensive struggles.
 
I would love to know what the Sox analytics staff thinks of all this.

 

[ScubaSteveAvery]

They ran into more outs yesterday.  It seems as if they are caught in a vicious cycle.  
 
The offense is struggling, so they are more aggressive on the bases, particularly in key situations where an extra run might make a difference.
 
But they are foolishly overaggressive, so instead of scoring runs in key situations they are running into outs instead.
 
Giving up extra outs only deepens their offensive struggles.
 
I would love to know what the Sox analytics staff thinks of all this.

 
Based on the first chart I did for running into outs on base (link), the team is slightly above league average, but really not any different from the two previous teams.  Their stolen base percentage is way under league average.  They are successful stealing 50% of the time versus the league average of 75%. Last year they were successful 87% of the time versus a league average of 74%.

 

[soxhop411]

Brian MacPherson ‏@brianmacp  41m
John Farrell said he's close to all but shutting down the running game with the team's success rate at 50 percent (11 for 22) thus far.

 

[soxhop411]

Michael Silverman ‏@MikeSilvermanBB  47m
Farrell: #RedSox lack of success stealing bases "alarming," team almost to point of "shutting it down

 

[MyDaughterLovesTomGordon]

Whether you're shutting it down or not, that's the right answer publicly, at this point. It seems like other teams are ready for the Sox to run since they've been so public with their desire to be aggressive. Lulling other teams to sleep for a while might not be a bad idea.
 
I'd argue this is a case where stats are telling the wrong story, too. Because AJP makes so much contact, they figure he'd be good for a hit and run. But when he's making that contact he's not being ASKED to make contact. He seems to take different, hacking swings when the hit and run is on, and it's a fundamentally different approach then he has in a normal at-bat. It's almost like they should put the hit and run on without telling him.  

 

[HriniakPosterChild]

Because AJP makes so much contact, they figure he'd be good for a hit and run. But when he's making that contact he's not being ASKED to make contact. He seems to take different, hacking swings when the hit and run is on, and it's a fundamentally different approach then he has in a normal at-bat. It's almost like they should put the hit and run on without telling him.  

 
Why can't he just miss the goddam sign like the rest of the team?

 

[EricFeczko]

Whether you're shutting it down or not, that's the right answer publicly, at this point. It seems like other teams are ready for the Sox to run since they've been so public with their desire to be aggressive. Lulling other teams to sleep for a while might not be a bad idea.
 
I'd argue this is a case where stats are telling the wrong story, too. Because AJP makes so much contact, they figure he'd be good for a hit and run. But when he's making that contact he's not being ASKED to make contact. He seems to take different, hacking swings when the hit and run is on, and it's a fundamentally different approach then he has in a normal at-bat. It's almost like they should put the hit and run on without telling him.  

 
 

 
Why can't he just miss the goddam sign like the rest of the team?

Better yet, why doesn't Farrell give a hit-and-run sign to everyone except AJP?