BA's Red Sox top ten + Podcast with Speier

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat · Nov 5, 2016

It's sort of fun that the Minor League Player of the Year doesn't make #1 on his team's list.

NoXInNixon · Nov 5, 2016

It's awesome that 10D is still ROY eligible. Maybe we'll see another Red Sox ROYMVP.

Over Guapo Grande · Nov 6, 2016

Kopech with 2 perfect innings in the AFL All-Star game last night, with 3 K's.

mwonow · Dec 2, 2016

BP's top 10 for 2017 is up - and very similar:

The Top Ten

BP loves Benintendi - check out the paragraph on "why don't we give out 80 hit tools?" at the link. Like BA, BP has Devers, Groom and Kopech 3-5, with Groome/Kopech flipped in the 4/5 spots, and Basabe/Dubon/Travis (from Travis/Dubon/Basabe) in 6-8. And Johnson and Ockimey instead of the further-away Dalbec and Raudes in 9-10. I don't have an informed opinion either way on the last two, but the top 5 are like a ray of sunshine in an otherwise gray-and-chilly December afternoon!

nighthob · Dec 2, 2016

I'm not sure Dalbec is that far away. I saw him at Lowell this year and that swing of his is awfully lethal. I would be shocked if he started 2018 in the minors. I suspect they'll have him on the Benintendi path next year, albeit I don't think Dalbec makes the jump from Portland to Boston the way Frodo did.

johnnywayback · Dec 4, 2016

nighthob said:
I'm not sure Dalbec is that far away. I saw him at Lowell this year and that swing of his is awfully lethal. I would be shocked if he started 2018 in the minors. I suspect they'll have him on the Benintendi path next year, albeit I don't think Dalbec makes the jump from Portland to Boston the way Frodo did.

I'd take that bet. There's still a lot of doubt about his hit tool, and there's a huge jump in quality of opposing pitching between A and AA that tends to expose holes in a hitter's swing. So even if he starts next year at Greenville and impresses enough to get promoted to Salem mid-year, I can't imagine he'll start 2018 any higher than Portland.

Snodgrass'Muff · Dec 4, 2016

johnnywayback said:
I'd take that bet. There's still a lot of doubt about his hit tool, and there's a huge jump in quality of opposing pitching between A and AA that tends to expose holes in a hitter's swing. So even if he starts next year at Greenville and impresses enough to get promoted to Salem mid-year, I can't imagine he'll start 2018 any higher than Portland.

Yeah, I'm a big Dalbac fan but he was a college draftee playing in the NYPL. None of the competition he was facing was any tougher than he was seeing in college. That he seemed to have a jump in his hitting and power while focusing solely on hitting is encouraging, but he'll need to succeed against tougher competition before I'm comfortable with even a loose comp to Benintendi.

I'd also take this bet.

Plympton91 · Dec 7, 2016

I agree the jump to the majors is a 1% probability with anyone in their first full year of pro baseball. I would expect Dalbac to start next season at Salem, and if he consolidates whatever adjustment they made for him after he signed last year and continues to do well, then he'd move to Portland around mid-year, just like Bradley and Benintendi before him. That move may also depend on whether Devers is ready to jump to AAA or hurt or takes a step back.

I would argue that a bad NYPL team would wipe the floor with the winner of the college world series in anything resembling a representative sample size. Plenty of major college draftees, including top picks, go to the NYPL and struggle, including future all stars.

If you have trouble comprehending that, think of it in reverse -- every American player in the NYPL likely either was playing in college or was a high school draft pick who turned down a college scholarship for pro ball. Not all starting college players will be drafted, even from perennial powerhouses, and many of those who are drafted never make it out of the the rookie and half-season A leagues.

RoDaddy · Dec 7, 2016

I was surprised Dalbec wasn't bumped up to Salem at the end of last year after his >1 OPS short season at Lowell. I'm hoping he turns out to be the future power hitting 3B star we thought Will Middelbrooks was gonna be

Since this thread is about top ten prospects, yesterday was a bit of a sad day for us minor league threaders with the loss of Moncada, Kopech, Basabe and Dubon. I think it's safe to say that the golden era of Red Sox minor league prospects that we've enjoyed the last 3 or so years is over, and we may never see it's match again. OTOH, I'm holding out some hope that the abundance of talent, especially pitching, on the big team will translate into July deadline trades (Pomeranz? Buchholz?) with desperate teams for top prospects (similar to what the Yankees did this year) to help rebuild our minor league system

Zososoxfan · Dec 8, 2016

RoDaddy said:
I was surprised Dalbec wasn't bumped up to Salem at the end of last year after his >1 OPS short season at Lowell. I'm hoping he turns out to be the future power hitting 3B star we thought Will Middelbrooks was gonna be

Since this thread is about top ten prospects, yesterday was a bit of a sad day for us minor league threaders with the loss of Moncada, Kopech, Basabe and Dubon. I think it's safe to say that the golden era of Red Sox minor league prospects that we've enjoyed the last 3 or so years is over, and we may never see it's match again. OTOH, I'm holding out some hope that the abundance of talent, especially pitching, on the big team will translate into July deadline trades (Pomeranz? Buchholz?) with desperate teams for top prospects (similar to what the Yankees did this year) to help rebuild our minor league system

I'd certainly recommend enjoying Betts, X, JBJ, 10D, Swihart, et al in the majors. I think it's also entirely likely that 3-4 years from now, as the window of this group closes, that the club makes some tough decisions on who to pay and who to trade to reload. Someone in the DD thread mentioned that during the BC down years they were checking the MiLB box scores and that resonated for me. For a long time, I can remember looking up X's and Bett's MiLB boxscores as my daily fix. Now, we get to watch their MLB highlights.

Cesar Crespo · Dec 8, 2016

I've been looking up MiLB box scores forever, regardless of how the big team does. There is always someone to root for, always someone rising from nowhere. Dalbec will be an interesting follow due to the pretty poor walk rate and the strike out concerns but it's been nothing but positive so far. I'm guessing he will start in Salem since the only college player I can remember starting in Greenville was Bryce Brentz and that was due to a horrible start to his pro career.

Sox Puppet · Dec 30, 2016

Just bumping this thread, here is John Sickels' just-published top 20 list of Sox prospects:

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2016/12/29/14119404/boston-red-sox-top-20-prospects-for-2017

Highlights:

1. Andrew Benintendi
2. Rafael Devers
3. Jason Groome
4. Bobby Dalbec
5. Sam Travis
6. Marco Hernandez
7. Roniel Raudes
8. C.J. Chatham
9. Michael Chavis
10. Josh Ockimey

mwonow · Dec 30, 2016

Thanks for this, interesting read! Hard to remember that Chavis is still so young. I've got to say, though, it seems like while you can make a case for a bunch of guys on the list individually, there's also a chance that no one outside of the top 3 (2?) has much of an impact on the Sox ML roster between now and 2019...

Hendu for Kutch · Dec 30, 2016

Sickels has Benintendi as his #1 overall prospect. Nice to be able to trade a #1 overall guy and still have one left, eh?

Cesar Crespo · Dec 30, 2016

mwonow said:
Thanks for this, interesting read! Hard to remember that Chavis is still so young. I've got to say, though, it seems like while you can make a case for a bunch of guys on the list individually, there's also a chance that no one outside of the top 3 (2?) has much of an impact on the Sox ML roster between now and 2019...

Sam Travis is probably the most likely guy on that list to make an impact this year and maybe next, excluding Ben10.

Snodgrass'Muff · Dec 30, 2016

bosox79 said:
Sam Travis is probably the most likely guy on that list to make an impact this year and maybe next, excluding Ben10.

Travis, barring a setback with his knee, will almost assuredly see time on the major league roster at some point in 2017, even if it's just for a September call-up. Also, it's nice to see Dalbec getting some love from Sickels.

Plympton91 · Dec 30, 2016

I was hoping to see a couple 18-year-olds from Latin America who had wow'ed the instructional league jump up to 9 or 10.

That's a sad sack list right now. Chavis is a huge disappointment. Ockimey cratered in the second half. Farrell wouldn't play Hernandez even though Shaw and Hill were combining for a 500 OPS in September. Raudes has an upside of #5 starter.

Blech.

Cesar Crespo · Dec 31, 2016

Plympton91 said:
I was hoping to see a couple 18-year-olds from Latin America who had wow'ed the instructional league jump up to 9 or 10.

That's a sad sack list right now. Chavis is a huge disappointment. Ockimey cratered in the second half. Farrell wouldn't play Hernandez even though Shaw and Hill were combining for a 500 OPS in September. Raudes has an upside of #5 starter.

Blech.

Looked like somewhat of an off year in the DSL too, with the best of the bunch being Pedro Castellanos who just turned 19 in December and plays 1b so will always be low on these type of rankings. It is a pretty sad list but we've been spoiled. Dalbec at 4 is interesting. If he is the real deal, that will help a lot.

Snodgrass'Muff · Dec 31, 2016

It's not surprising that there aren't any LA players who made the jump considering the restrictions they had on them in the last two years. And yeah its a thin system this year but that happens when you've graduated Betts, Bogaerts, Bradley, Swihart, and Rodriguez and turned Moncada, Kopech, Basabe, Shaw, Margot, Asuaje, etc into Sale, Kimbrel and Thornburg.

The farm did it's job. It's gonna take some time to rebuild it but they have a few years before they will really need it to bear any significant fruit again. And they still have Benintendi, Devers, Groome and Dalbec who should all be in the top 100 mix for various sites with the first two as top 10-15 guys. Benintendi will probably be number 1 overall on some lists. Sam Travis might even sneak onto a top 100 or two.

gammoseditor · Dec 31, 2016

Plympton91 said:
I was hoping to see a couple 18-year-olds from Latin America who had wow'ed the instructional league jump up to 9 or 10.

That's a sad sack list right now. Chavis is a huge disappointment. Ockimey cratered in the second half. Farrell wouldn't play Hernandez even though Shaw and Hill were combining for a 500 OPS in September. Raudes has an upside of #5 starter.

Blech.

Sickels is usually on the low end of ranking any 18 year old Latin kids.

Snodgrass'Muff · Jan 1, 2017

Jim Callis has Benintendi as the #3 prospect in all of baseball.

He also has Devers at #14 in the following tweet:

And earlier in the month he mentioned that the Sox were still a top 15 system because of those two and Groome.

moondog80 · Jan 2, 2017

I know he's technically a rookie, but it feels like an accounting trick to include Benintendi in the farm system rankings. I wonder where the Sox would rank if you removed him (and did the same for similar guys from other teams)?

Snodgrass'Muff · Jan 2, 2017

Yeah, he just barely was able to hang on to eligibility because of the injury. But dems da breaks/rules. It's not terribly different than advanced prospects who only got a cup of coffee last year but should be up for good early in the season, like JP Crawford, Carson Fulmer or Manuel Margot.

Cesar Crespo · Jan 2, 2017

moondog80 said:
I know he's technically a rookie, but it feels like an accounting trick to include Benintendi in the farm system rankings. I wonder where the Sox would rank if you removed him (and did the same for similar guys from other teams)?

Bottom 5, probably. They'd have 2 top 50 prospects and maybe 4 top 100s. The system really needs a few players to take a step forward or emerge from no where next year. A lot of this system's long term health is going to depend on Groome and Dalbec.

edit: And while it isn't likely, Travis and Devers could possibly both graduate this season too. Next year's list could easily look worse than this years.

ZMart100 · Jan 2, 2017

Snodgrass'Muff said:
Yeah, he just barely was able to hang on to eligibility because of the injury. But dems da breaks/rules. It's not terribly different than advanced prospects who only got a cup of coffee last year but should be up for good early in the season, like JP Crawford, Carson Fulmer or Manuel Margot.

Crawford didn't see any MLB time as far as I am aware.

Savin Hillbilly · Jan 2, 2017

bosox79 said:
Bottom 5, probably. They'd have 2 top 50 prospects and maybe 4 top 100s.

I'm puzzled as to how these two statements connect, since 2 of the top 50 and 4 of the top 100 puts the Sox slightly above average on the face of it (if each organization had an equal share of the prospects in those tiers, they would all have 1.67 top 50s and 3.33 top 100s). I mean, of course it's possible for a club to have more than its share of top prospects and still rank near the bottom because the middle and lower tiers of the system are terrible, or because all of its top-50 and top-100 prospects are near the bottom of those tiers, or some combination thereof. But that's a different point.

Snodgrass'Muff · Jan 2, 2017

ZMart100 said:
Crawford didn't see any MLB time as far as I am aware.

He didn't, but he had 385 PAs in AAA last year. He'll need to take a step forward with the bat, but he was young for his league and the Phillies are breaking in kids as a rule these days. He should see an opportunity to start at the major league level at some point in the first half. They'll wait until they "earn" an extra year of control at least, but I'd be very surprised if he's not in Philly by some time in June.

Cesar Crespo · Jan 2, 2017

Savin Hillbilly said:
I'm puzzled as to how these two statements connect, since 2 of the top 50 and 4 of the top 100 puts the Sox slightly above average on the face of it (if each organization had an equal share of the prospects in those tiers, they would all have 1.67 top 50s and 3.33 top 100s). I mean, of course it's possible for a club to have more than its share of top prospects and still rank near the bottom because the middle and lower tiers of the system are terrible, or because all of its top-50 and top-100 prospects are near the bottom of those tiers, or some combination thereof. But that's a different point.

I said maybe 4. Dalbec and Travis won't be on every top 100 list. Groome may not be in the top 50. Even then, you have a point. It'd be in the bottom 10.

MikeM · Jan 2, 2017

Snodgrass'Muff said:
Yeah, he just barely was able to hang on to eligibility because of the injury. But dems da breaks/rules. It's not terribly different than advanced prospects who only got a cup of coffee last year but should be up for good early in the season, like JP Crawford, Carson Fulmer or Manuel Margot.

While we are all obviously high on Benintendi atm, is he really "up for good" though if the fast track approach starts looking questionable coming out the gate in 2017?

From an overall stand point and given his limited exposure above A ball, I think the top prospect label is still pretty legit here.

Cesar Crespo · Jan 2, 2017

MikeM said:
While we are all obviously high on Benintendi atm, is he really "up for good" though if the fast track approach starts looking questionable coming out the gate in 2017?

From an overall stand point and given his limited exposure above A ball, I think the top prospect label is still pretty legit here.

That isn't the question. The question is "Will Benintendi get 30 at bats in 2017?" and barring something drastic, that answer is yes.

RoDaddy · Jan 2, 2017

Yeah, 10D is likely up for good leaving Devers and Groome at the only two high prospects followed by a big drop. The Golden Age of the Sox minor league system is over but was a great ride while it lasted! And anyway, as hoped, it's been the main driving force in building a very good team in Boston. One thing I'm holding out hope for is that our starting pitcher surplus (e.g., Pomeranz or maybe even Price depending on how things go) can be traded for quality prospects at the July trading deadline

Philip Jeff Frye · Jan 2, 2017

RoDaddy said:
One thing I'm holding out hope for is that our starting pitcher surplus (e.g., Pomeranz or maybe even Price depending on how things go) can be traded for quality prospects at the July trading deadline

Is there any scenario where we trade Price for prospects In July that doesn't involve us being 10 games out? I know there are people here who seem to value a top ten farm system over a top ten actual major league team, but that's ridiculous.

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat · Jan 2, 2017

Philip Jeff Frye said:
Is there any scenario where we trade Price for prospects In July that doesn't involve us being 10 games out? I know there are people here who seem to value a top ten farm system over a top ten actual major league team, but that's ridiculous.

Even at 10 games out, there is almost no conceivable scenario where Price gets traded for prospects in July.

Plympton91 · Jan 2, 2017

Good article on Shawaren from SoxProspects. If he can be as good as he looked his sophomore year at UMD he could become a pair with Groome to get the top 10 back to respectable.

http://news.soxprospects.com/2016/08/after-draft-slide-shawaryn-regaining.html?m=1

Snodgrass'Muff · Jan 3, 2017

Shawaryn has breakout potential. As do Dalbec, Ockimey, Chatham an even Cosart as a reliever. Relief pitching prospects rarely rank anywhere worth noting on these lists, but can be valuable assets anyway. Maybe they move Trey Ball to relief as well. And then there are the ones you never see coming.

The farm could look really sad around mid season, or even a year from now. It could also look pretty healthy. It's going to take some great drafting and a smart use of the newly capped IFA dollars to make this a top system again, and even then it's still going to take years for that to play out. But they can be a top half of the league farm next year, which is pretty solid given how much talent they've just used to load up the major league roster.

nighthob · Jan 3, 2017

I'm expecting Dalbec to break out, that swing of his is awfully lethal (I live near Lowell and always catch a few games a year). Shawaryn's throwing motion terrifies me, but he seems to get a lot of mileage out of it, I'm just not sure how durable he can be.

And you're right about the relievers, Boston has a lot of power relief arms in the lower reaches of the system, and those guys never show up at the top of rankings lists, but there's at least a chance that guys like Cosart, or Bautista turn out to be valuable relievers at the MLB level.

pantsparty · Jan 3, 2017

Cosart put up some absurd strikeout numbers last year, striking out 35.4% of batters he saw in Greenville and then 37.3% of batters he saw in Salem. He walked a bunch of dudes too, however, and the scouting I've read on him is that he has a violent delivery that some scouts see as making his arm as a ticking time bomb. If his arm doesn't explode and he learns a bit of control he could move very quickly, or he could get to a point where having both he and the batter having no idea where the ball is going stops playing in his favor and he hits a wall.

BA's Red Sox top ten + Podcast with Speier

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