Assists and the Reliability of Scorekeepers

Grin&MartyBarret

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 2, 2007
4,932
East Village, NYC
A couple of weeks ago, after a bunch of pre-game beers, a friend and I were at the Knicks-Clippers game and noticed that the Knicks home scorekeeper crediting a couple of very dubious assists. We started arguing about how reliable NBA assist stats are, and decided to test the theory that scorekeepers are essentially handing out assists willy-nilly. Our method was far from scientific, but we looked at a couple of box scores that included big assist numbers by a specific player and found some pretty glaring inconsistencies. For instance, two years ago in the Celtics sweep of the Knicks, Rajon Rondo put up a 15 point, 11 rebound, 20 assist triple double.
 
However, if you look at that game log, something doesn't add up. The C's scored 113 points total, which included 15 points on free throws. You can also eliminate the 15 points that Rondo scored himself. That leaves 83 unaccounted for points. From there, by examining the game log play-by-play (http://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/201104220NYK.html) you can see that according to the official scorer, the Celtics scored 39 points on baskets that were either unassisted or assisted by players other than Rondo (and not scored by Rondo himself). That means that Rondo's 20 assists accounted for 44 points, which isn't a problem in and of itself, until you consider that the game log claims Rondo assisted on 8 three pointers. Do the math, and somehow you are left with Rondo's other 12 assists only accounting for 20 points.
 
Earlier that year, the Celtics played the Knicks at home, and Rondo put up a line of 18 points, 17 rebounds, and 20 assists. The Celtics scored 115 total points, and made 18 free throws. That leaves 79 unaccounted for points. The Celtics scored 37 points on either unassisted baskets or baskets assisted on by somebody other than Rondo, leaving 42 unaccounted for points. According to the game log (http://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/pbp/201203040BOS.html) he assisted on 6 threes, which means his other 14 assists only accounted for 24 points.
 
Which is all just to say: NBA's official assist stats make no sense.
 
To be clear, I'm not trying to claim that Rondo is the only guy in the league benefiting from such things, and I don't even think this necessarily means much, but I find it sort of crazy that official game logs don't even make mathematical sense. I also have a feeling that if you went back and looked at some other big assist games, that you'd find other instances where assist totals just don't make sense. Further, this isn't exactly news: everybody knows that home scorekeepers have a tendency to be very generous with assists, I just always figured it was more of the "credit a player with an assist on a routine inlet pass even though the player who caught the pass took 5 dribbles, made a basketball move, and created the shot himself" variety.
 
Disclaimer: It's also entirely possible I'm an idiot and am just missing something really obvious here.
 

TroyOLeary

New Member
Jul 22, 2005
178
By subtracting free throws and Rondo's total points, you're double-counting the free throws Rondo made.
 

allstonite

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 27, 2010
2,492
Even though the math in this case isn't totally correct, I do think there is something  scorekeepers pumping up home totals. I remember people complaining that Chris Paul earlier in his career was the beneficiary of dubious assist and steal totals in New Orleans. I thought I remembered an in depth piece but googling can only find a few blogs discussing it. 
 
I think this is a benefit of advanced stats in basketball because an assist is subjective and also dependent on another player making a shot it's not unlike the RBI. Obviously Chris Paul is still a tremendous player with or without the pumped up assist totals. 
 
Here is a blog piece from a blog that quotes the Warriors color guys and some examples of Collison benefiting from the scorekeeper while Paul was hurt
 
http://20secondtimeout.blogspot.com/2010/03/deflating-inflated-assist-totals.html
 

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
12,708
There was an article about a former Grizzlies scorekeeper, if memory serves (which it rarely does at my age), talking about the joke of the assist. He related the story about his last year on the job, on the night that Nick van Exel set his LA record for assists in a game giving out absurd assists to him. Assists for breakaway buckets, assists on plays where he handed the ball off for dribble drives, etc.. He said he figured it would be an effective way to protest how badly the NBA had cheapened the assist, that everyone would see the absurdity of what he did. Only people began celebrating the record which was when he knew his efforts were in vain.
 

Brickowski

Banned
Feb 15, 2011
3,755
Grin&MartyBarret's point is well taken. Quite apart from overgenerous official scoring on actual assists, there is no assist if a guy makes a great pass but his teammate misses the shot. Or gets clobbered and goes to the line. Or travels. There is no assist if a player makes a nice pass but the player receiving it dribbles too much before shooting. There are no hockey assists in basketball. I'm sure teams keep private statistics on these events, but they are not reported anywhere that I can find.

It would be nice to have some sort of "passer rating" statistic that actually reflects how well players pass.
 

Lose Remerswaal

Experiencing Furry Panic
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
I recall the article nighthob mentions.
 
Easiest way to see how valid the argument is is to look at assist totals and averages for a player (and a team) at home and on the road.  I expect you'll see some notable variances there.
 

bowiac

Caveat: I know nothing about what I speak
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 18, 2003
12,945
New York, NY
Here's an old-ish article about this phenomenon:
Some Interesting Findings *The top-five most favorable home scorers belong to: Nuggets, Clippers, Hawks, Lakers, Cavaliers *The five least favorable home scorers belong to: Heat, Suns, Kings, Knicks, Grizzlies *The single highest-inflated season was the 2008-09 Nuggets with a 13% inflation *The single most-deflated season was the 2006-07 Heat with a -8.7% deflation *LeBron’s quest to average a triple-double is actually hampered by Heat scorers *Steve Nash was probably undervalued in his MVP year.
 

Kliq

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 31, 2013
22,838
Assists totals have been fluctuating since the NBA formed. We all know that assists were harder to get when Cousy played, but then in the 80s and 90s assists suddenly became really easy to get. Now, I think they have fallen back down to earth and are probably in the middle. The lesson here is that assists are not really a reliable statistic, because like errors in baseball, they are a statistic that is at the discretion of human evaluation. A statistic, in its essence, is not supposed to be based on human evaluation, it is supposed to be based on facts and not opinions. That is what makes it a statistic.
 

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
12,708
Assist totals these days are largely a function of pace adjustment. More possessions in the run & gun 80s meant more baskets and more assists.
 

scottyno

late Bloomer
SoSH Member
Dec 7, 2008
11,342
College scorekeepers are even worse, not just in terms of home town cooking but just in getting things flat out wrong which they either often don't correct, or they correct but leave in the erroneous stat as well.  It's not uncommon to see a rebound without a shot, or a rebound  or block credited to a big who wasn't anywhere near the play in the final "official stats".  I've done some work with college score keeping and in comparing to the official stats I was initially surprised how often they were wrong and never corrected with regard to assists steals blocks and rebounds.
 

CSteinhardt

"Steiny"
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 18, 2003
3,202
Cambridge
There's an article from a few years ago that now seems to have disappeared from its original place, but a bit of digging should turn up about an NBA scorekeeper who basically threw Nick Van Exel assists at one point.  Worth reading if you're curious about this.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,343
I posted on this topic last fall either here or on my other board. Had people focus on the type of scoring plays where Rondo was credited assists in Boston and the thread became laughable.

Entry to Pierce at the elbow, pivot, jab step, dribble, fallaway jumper......assist Rondo. Entry to KG, face up, re-post, turnaround jumper......assist Rondo. It seemed like last year pre-injury was worse than prior years but you see the difference in Rondo's assist numbers when those dumps to Pierce and Garnett are now dumps into Bass and Kardashian.....and it has nothing to do with his health or his knee.