After an encouraging season that ended in disappointing fashion, Arsenal enter a very important summer, what the Kroenkes and club brass have long described as the second stage of a phased rebuild.
My view from 20,000 feet is the following:
The club went through a complete dumpster fire period between 2016-2020 in terms of squad building, organizational dysfunction, and poisonous team culture. At its root, a lot of it had to do with the transition away from Wenger. Its taken a few years to get out from under the staggering number of bad decisions made during that period, but if we have a good summer we'll basically be on the other side of it. The roster will be completely turned over and stocked with younger players brought in with a particular footballing vision in mind, the culture within the locker room and with the supporters is much more positive, and the club is being run in a largely rational way at director level. But one implication is that there really can't be any more excuses for performances on the pitch. Arteta will be expected to continue improving results, fighting hard with Chelsea/Spurs/United for the 3rd/4th positions and having a real go in the cups. And if he doesn't, then hopefully we'll look to bring in somebody else next summer. All in all, these are good things.
In terms of summer transfer business and squad reshaping, here are a few general thoughts and predictions:
Forwards: David Ornstein reported today that we are close to signing Nketiah to a new deal. We also are very very highly rumored to be after Gabriel Jesus, with a lot of reason to think that gets done given his relationship with Edu and Arteta, the fit in a footballing sense, the tendency of Brazilians to like to go to teams with other Brazilians, etc. I think we will also look to sign another forward this summer, but it could be dependent on Pepe leaving, which will be tricky. Pepe has gotten a new agent and I think he wants to leave, given how clearly Arteta has communicated that he isn't in the plans. I also think the club would be willing to take a huge loss. But you still need to find some other club to pay a reasonable fee and take his wages, which aren't massive but aren't small either. If we do manage to move Pepe and bring in a replacement, I wouldn't necessarily assume it will be a RW. Jesus is capable of playing anywhere across the front line and actually seems to have some preference for playing wide. So it could be a striker.
Projected first team depth chart: Saka, Jesus, Martinelli, Smith-Rowe, Nketiah, Pepe or His Replacement
Midfield: Elneny signed a one year renewal, which I think is smart business. He is basically a hedge against the possibility that Sambi never shows enough to become Partey's backup/heir as the CDM in the 4-3-3. At the 8 roles, we clearly are looking to bring in at least one starting quality player to supplant Xhaka or rotate with Xhaka/Odegaard. Tielemans is the most rumored but nothing feels particularly locked in here. I think it would be a good deal at the reported price (25m) if it happens but who knows. Even with one 8 addition, this part of the squad still feels a little light to me. We might see more Smith-Rowe in these positions going forward. Charlie Patino could also get some run in the Europa League/Carabao Cup if he doesn't go on loan. I also wouldn't completely rule out another 8 being purchased, but likely not for significant money.
Projected first team depth chart: Odegaard, Partey, Tielemans (or alternative), Xhaka, Lokonga, Elneny, Patino.
Defense: Arteta has come out and clearly stated that William Saliba will be coming back to the team and part of his plans next year. We are also reported to be offering him a new contract. So if we can take that at face value, we seem set at CB with Gabriel, White, Saliba, Holding. At fullback, we seem likely to bring in a better back up to Tierney, with fellow Scotsman Aaron Hickey the most highly rumored target. Hickey is a remarkably two-footed player - like Cazorla-level indifferent between his feet, not necessarily in terms of quality - so it seems like he could probably back up both sides. My guess is that Cedric sticks around and Nuno either gets loaned out or hangs around the squad without playing much.
Projected first team depth chart: Gabriel, White, Tomiyasu, Tierney, Saliba, Holding, Hickey (or alternative), Cedric.
Keepers: We already bought Matt Turner and everybody assumes Leno will go, so it looks very likely to be Ramsdale and Turner with Arthur Okonkwo as the third keeper or maybe some random veteran.
Projected first team depth chart: Ramsdale, Turner, Okonkwo.
In terms of outgoings:
Bellerin wants to stay at Betis and I assume something gets done, with Arsenal receiving a very small fee as part of the deal. Torreira still seems likely to move permanently to Fiorentina for about 15m euro, despite a recent ruckus between his agent and the club chairman over contract negotiations. Guendouzi will complete his move to Marseille for around 11m euro. Same deal with Mavropanos to Stuttgart, but for a paltry 3m. Maitland-Niles should have some suitors in England as a young experienced PL player who somehow was once capped by England, but I wouldn't expect the fee to be very high, maybe like 8-10m pounds. Leno will almost certainly go somewhere he can play, but again for a small fee in the 5-10m range. Udinese supposedly want to keep Pablo Mari. I don't know whether they can make the wages work, but I assume from Arsenal's end a bag of footballs and a thank you note would get it done. I have no idea what happens with Reiss Nelson. He actually had a pretty good last few months for Feyenoord but I don't think he'll be in Arteta's plans and I'm not sure who would really pay money for him right now.
Promising youth players who should either get loaned or be on the fringes of the squad: Folarin Balogun, Charlie Patino, Omari Hutchinson, Marquinhos (just bought from Brazil for 3m), Brooke Norton-Cuffy, Miguel Azeez, Marcelo Flores.
Summary:
I think there is a good plan in place and that it will improve the roster. Hypothetically, bringing in Gabriel Jesus, Tielemans, Hickey, and Saliba would improve the first XI in two key positions while also bringing up the quality of our depth pretty substantially. What could turn this from a pretty good summer to a really exciting one would be moving Pepe and bringing in a top player like Gnabry or Osimhen to take his place in the squad, as that would really have knock on effects for the quality and depth of the forward line. But a lot has to go right for that to happen, including being able to attract that level of player.
If Jesus, Tielemans, and Hickey were the only purchases, we'd only be talking about £80-90m in gross spending on transfer fees. And just from the deals that seem already agreed or virtually certain to happen (Torreira, Guendouzi, Mavro, Bellerin, Leno) we'll be earning about £35-40m in fees, so I think the money is definitely there for another big addition in theory. And I would expect the club to face some criticism if the net spend is only in the £50m range given what other big PL clubs are likely to be spending, so it does feel like another shoe could drop.
The league is only getting more and more competitive, so I'm circumspect about where this leaves us specifically for next year. But I think completing the rebuild in this way would leave us very well positioned for the next 5-6 years, whether its Arteta at the helm or somebody else, and that is more important to me.
My view from 20,000 feet is the following:
The club went through a complete dumpster fire period between 2016-2020 in terms of squad building, organizational dysfunction, and poisonous team culture. At its root, a lot of it had to do with the transition away from Wenger. Its taken a few years to get out from under the staggering number of bad decisions made during that period, but if we have a good summer we'll basically be on the other side of it. The roster will be completely turned over and stocked with younger players brought in with a particular footballing vision in mind, the culture within the locker room and with the supporters is much more positive, and the club is being run in a largely rational way at director level. But one implication is that there really can't be any more excuses for performances on the pitch. Arteta will be expected to continue improving results, fighting hard with Chelsea/Spurs/United for the 3rd/4th positions and having a real go in the cups. And if he doesn't, then hopefully we'll look to bring in somebody else next summer. All in all, these are good things.
In terms of summer transfer business and squad reshaping, here are a few general thoughts and predictions:
Forwards: David Ornstein reported today that we are close to signing Nketiah to a new deal. We also are very very highly rumored to be after Gabriel Jesus, with a lot of reason to think that gets done given his relationship with Edu and Arteta, the fit in a footballing sense, the tendency of Brazilians to like to go to teams with other Brazilians, etc. I think we will also look to sign another forward this summer, but it could be dependent on Pepe leaving, which will be tricky. Pepe has gotten a new agent and I think he wants to leave, given how clearly Arteta has communicated that he isn't in the plans. I also think the club would be willing to take a huge loss. But you still need to find some other club to pay a reasonable fee and take his wages, which aren't massive but aren't small either. If we do manage to move Pepe and bring in a replacement, I wouldn't necessarily assume it will be a RW. Jesus is capable of playing anywhere across the front line and actually seems to have some preference for playing wide. So it could be a striker.
Projected first team depth chart: Saka, Jesus, Martinelli, Smith-Rowe, Nketiah, Pepe or His Replacement
Midfield: Elneny signed a one year renewal, which I think is smart business. He is basically a hedge against the possibility that Sambi never shows enough to become Partey's backup/heir as the CDM in the 4-3-3. At the 8 roles, we clearly are looking to bring in at least one starting quality player to supplant Xhaka or rotate with Xhaka/Odegaard. Tielemans is the most rumored but nothing feels particularly locked in here. I think it would be a good deal at the reported price (25m) if it happens but who knows. Even with one 8 addition, this part of the squad still feels a little light to me. We might see more Smith-Rowe in these positions going forward. Charlie Patino could also get some run in the Europa League/Carabao Cup if he doesn't go on loan. I also wouldn't completely rule out another 8 being purchased, but likely not for significant money.
Projected first team depth chart: Odegaard, Partey, Tielemans (or alternative), Xhaka, Lokonga, Elneny, Patino.
Defense: Arteta has come out and clearly stated that William Saliba will be coming back to the team and part of his plans next year. We are also reported to be offering him a new contract. So if we can take that at face value, we seem set at CB with Gabriel, White, Saliba, Holding. At fullback, we seem likely to bring in a better back up to Tierney, with fellow Scotsman Aaron Hickey the most highly rumored target. Hickey is a remarkably two-footed player - like Cazorla-level indifferent between his feet, not necessarily in terms of quality - so it seems like he could probably back up both sides. My guess is that Cedric sticks around and Nuno either gets loaned out or hangs around the squad without playing much.
Projected first team depth chart: Gabriel, White, Tomiyasu, Tierney, Saliba, Holding, Hickey (or alternative), Cedric.
Keepers: We already bought Matt Turner and everybody assumes Leno will go, so it looks very likely to be Ramsdale and Turner with Arthur Okonkwo as the third keeper or maybe some random veteran.
Projected first team depth chart: Ramsdale, Turner, Okonkwo.
In terms of outgoings:
Bellerin wants to stay at Betis and I assume something gets done, with Arsenal receiving a very small fee as part of the deal. Torreira still seems likely to move permanently to Fiorentina for about 15m euro, despite a recent ruckus between his agent and the club chairman over contract negotiations. Guendouzi will complete his move to Marseille for around 11m euro. Same deal with Mavropanos to Stuttgart, but for a paltry 3m. Maitland-Niles should have some suitors in England as a young experienced PL player who somehow was once capped by England, but I wouldn't expect the fee to be very high, maybe like 8-10m pounds. Leno will almost certainly go somewhere he can play, but again for a small fee in the 5-10m range. Udinese supposedly want to keep Pablo Mari. I don't know whether they can make the wages work, but I assume from Arsenal's end a bag of footballs and a thank you note would get it done. I have no idea what happens with Reiss Nelson. He actually had a pretty good last few months for Feyenoord but I don't think he'll be in Arteta's plans and I'm not sure who would really pay money for him right now.
Promising youth players who should either get loaned or be on the fringes of the squad: Folarin Balogun, Charlie Patino, Omari Hutchinson, Marquinhos (just bought from Brazil for 3m), Brooke Norton-Cuffy, Miguel Azeez, Marcelo Flores.
Summary:
I think there is a good plan in place and that it will improve the roster. Hypothetically, bringing in Gabriel Jesus, Tielemans, Hickey, and Saliba would improve the first XI in two key positions while also bringing up the quality of our depth pretty substantially. What could turn this from a pretty good summer to a really exciting one would be moving Pepe and bringing in a top player like Gnabry or Osimhen to take his place in the squad, as that would really have knock on effects for the quality and depth of the forward line. But a lot has to go right for that to happen, including being able to attract that level of player.
If Jesus, Tielemans, and Hickey were the only purchases, we'd only be talking about £80-90m in gross spending on transfer fees. And just from the deals that seem already agreed or virtually certain to happen (Torreira, Guendouzi, Mavro, Bellerin, Leno) we'll be earning about £35-40m in fees, so I think the money is definitely there for another big addition in theory. And I would expect the club to face some criticism if the net spend is only in the £50m range given what other big PL clubs are likely to be spending, so it does feel like another shoe could drop.
The league is only getting more and more competitive, so I'm circumspect about where this leaves us specifically for next year. But I think completing the rebuild in this way would leave us very well positioned for the next 5-6 years, whether its Arteta at the helm or somebody else, and that is more important to me.
Last edited:
