Supporting Arsenal these days requires you to constantly hold two (or more) thoughts in your head at the same time.
It was a terrible, terrible season from a results standpoint and that simply needs to be centered in any discussion. But we were 2nd in the table from Matchweek 15 onward, averaging nearly 2 points per match (although helped by significantly outperforming XG in that period).
Mikel Arteta is a smart tactician with upside as a manager given his relative inexperience and the overall trajectory of the team’s performances. But he also made some absolutely disastrous choices while learning on the job – from tactics, to man management, to squad building – that really hurt us this past year. Usually we think of managers as fixed quantities but in this case the manager (and I’d lump Edu into this category as well) really does need to get better and learn from his mistakes.
We’ve finished 8th twice in a row and basically deserve the banter about being a midtable club in recent years. But, assuming this summer goes more or less as planned, during that period we’ll have turned over nearly the entire roster since the 18-19 season, with only three of the top 18 players in league minutes played from that season still around (Auba, Leno, Xhaka). We’ve basically dug out from under a series of calamitous decisions in the late Wenger/Emery transition years and we can see an emergent roster that makes sense and has a core of very young and very high upside talent.
Looking forward:
A season out of Europe may hurt us in the long run (in the form of a reduced UEFA club coefficient) but will undoubtedly be a boon in the short run, as it will allow for more rest and more time to train the team and prepare league matches. From a roster construction standpoint, however, it really increases the onus on Edu to move a high number of players out the door this summer, as we simply won’t need a first team squad of more than 22-23.
This is what I would like to see (ages as of 8/14 when the season starts).
Striker: Aubameyang (32), Balogun (20), Martinelli at times.
I don't see a reason to buy another striker given that we're not in Europe. Auba will start most matches and has an excellent career injury record. We need to find more ways to get Martinelli on the pitch and there are plenty of reasons to believe that Arteta may see him as a striker eventually, so I’d like to see Martinelli get some real minutes off the bench and starting matches where Auba isn’t fit or the tactics favor a striker who gets more involved in the buildup. Balogun can get his feet wet by playing in the two domestic cups and garbage time league minutes here and there.
Three Behind the Striker: Saka (19), Smith-Rowe (21), Pepe (26), Martinelli (20), new creative midfielder.
Its crystal clear that we need another creative player in the center that can be the link between midfield and attack. Odegaard in his best matches (IMO, West Ham and Brighton) has really elevated the overall fluidity of our play. Whether we bring him back or go for an option like Emi Buendia or (in a dream scenario) Jack Grealish, we need somebody in this role and it seems like Arteta and Edu are fully planning for this. Add that player and I think we have a nice mix of goal scoring wide forwards (Pepe, Martinelli), creators to link play (ESR, mystery addition), and a hybrid player with the potential to be really good at both (Saka).
Central midfield: Partey (28), new central midfielder, Xhaka (28), Elneny (29), Azeez (18).
Xhaka was actually one of our better players this season IMO and probably gets too much stick from the fanbase. But starting central midfield is both an area where we can upgrade and where we really need something a little different. None of Partey, Xhaka, or Elneny (or Ceballos for that matter) really offer anything in the final third and we essentially got no goal contribution from midfield this season. IMO, we need a more all action player who can legitimately do the work of a central midfielder in terms of running and passing but also pop up with 4-5 goals and 4-5 assists. I am as high on Miguel Azeez as you can possibly be on a youth player and think he could play this kind of role for us eventually but that is a few years away even if he develops well. I am ambivalent on keeping Elneny but lean toward doing so simply because he has almost no sale value, his wages are small, he’s a good squad player who won’t raise a stink if he never plays, and he provides a reliable fourth option while Azeez is basically a wild card at this stage in his career.
Fullbacks: Tierney (24), new right back, new backup left back, Chambers (26).
The big issue with our fullbacks is that Tierney is central to our attacking setup but also tragically injury prone. Arteta likes to set up in this way where in possession Tierney is essentially our left winger and then the “left wing” player is like a left-sided 10. Fine and good but we have absolutely nobody else who can do what Tierney does. So we either need a backup LB who can do a better Tierney impression or a RB who can do Tierney-like things on that side if necessary, so that the whole thing just flips. We have neither right now. I think the best solution in terms of options is a cheap backup LB who is actually left footed (Ryan Bertrand on a free has been rumored) and then a RB to rotate with Chambers who has a bit more of a technical quasi-winger skillset.
Centerbacks: Gabriel (23), Saliba (20), Mari (27), Holding (25).
We look set at LCB for a while, with Gabriel being groomed as the starter and Mari capable enough as a backup. But RCB might be the weakest link in the entire squad right now. Rob Holding is a great backup option – decent all-around game, excellent teammate by every account, knows the system – but he just isn’t good enough to be the starter for a team with real ambitions of getting back into the top four. One of the biggest questions of the off-season is whether William Saliba is capable of being the player that pushes past Holding to take the starting job. Rightly or wrongly, I think Arteta is not sold on Saliba but is willing to give him a hard look this summer. I’m going to optimistically hope that Saliba impresses enough to be given a real chance this year but I also think its fairly likely that we end up buying another more polished RCB instead who can step in and play immediately. Where that would leave Saliba I don’t know. His handling is probably the number one criticism I have of Arteta and Edu from a squad management standpoint.
Keepers: Leno, new backup (likely Ryan).
This looks to me like the easiest position to handle. Leno had some wobbles this year but he still is excellent as a shot stopper and adept enough with his feet for us to play out from the back. Ryan has been reliable when called upon, seems like he really wants to return on a permanent basis, and I can’t imagine that we’d have to pay Brighton more than a couple million pounds to make it happen. This seems like a no-brainer solution for backup GK.
Outgoings:
One of the best things Arsenal has going for them right now is a lot of players to sell that should have real value even in a Covid-impacted market. Mainly, this is the result of having gone through such a tumultuous last couple years in which a lot of youth players got real looks and proved that they’re Premier League quality but don’t seem like good fits (Willock, Maitland-Niles, Nketiah) while other players bought by Emery ended up surplus to requirements but still are young, on fairly cheap wages, and have established track records in first team football (Guendouzi, Torreira). Throw in a couple more veteran players that will be harder to move but should still have some suitors (Lacazette because he scores goals, Bellerin is still only 26 and not on massive wages). And then there are a couple we’d be happy/lucky to give away for free and might even help partially subsidize a move away (Cedric, Willian).
Realistically, we’re not going to get rid of all nine of these players in one summer but I think moving on from 6-7 of them could happen if Edu takes care of business (which I do have some doubts about his ability to do). Maybe one or two ends up back in the squad (Willian and/or Cedric most likely) and one or two end up out on loan. There is also Reiss Nelson, who we really should be loaning to a PL or Championship team to see if he could grow and become a real option for the behind-the-striker group after this year when we are (hopefully) back in Europe and need to grow the squad a bit again. If we can actually move on 6-7 of these players, I think it will be very possible to fund the five incomings (two of which, backup LB and backup GK, are dirt cheap) discussed above.
Edit: Forgot about Kolasinac (likely in the "give away for free" category) and Mavropanos (the rumor is that Stuttgart want to loan him again while we'd prefer a sale for a nominal fee in the 6-8m range).
Overall prognosis:
I’m actually surprisingly bullish about the team going into next year. How much we improve will depend on the quality of our summer business, getting some continued growth from our young core, and Arteta actually learning and improving as a manager. But I think we’re finally seeing the emergence of a squad that has positional balance, some exciting young talent, and was built with a real plan in mind rather than a mishmash of players haphazardly thrown together by three different managers, power hungry rival executives, and shady agents. I’m not sure it’ll be enough to break into the top four given that City, United, Chelsea, and Liverpool all look pretty strong. But I’m very confident that we won’t be finishing 8th again. Arteta may or may not be the answer beyond next year, but no matter what he'll leave the squad in far better shape than the one he inherited.
It was a terrible, terrible season from a results standpoint and that simply needs to be centered in any discussion. But we were 2nd in the table from Matchweek 15 onward, averaging nearly 2 points per match (although helped by significantly outperforming XG in that period).
Mikel Arteta is a smart tactician with upside as a manager given his relative inexperience and the overall trajectory of the team’s performances. But he also made some absolutely disastrous choices while learning on the job – from tactics, to man management, to squad building – that really hurt us this past year. Usually we think of managers as fixed quantities but in this case the manager (and I’d lump Edu into this category as well) really does need to get better and learn from his mistakes.
We’ve finished 8th twice in a row and basically deserve the banter about being a midtable club in recent years. But, assuming this summer goes more or less as planned, during that period we’ll have turned over nearly the entire roster since the 18-19 season, with only three of the top 18 players in league minutes played from that season still around (Auba, Leno, Xhaka). We’ve basically dug out from under a series of calamitous decisions in the late Wenger/Emery transition years and we can see an emergent roster that makes sense and has a core of very young and very high upside talent.
Looking forward:
A season out of Europe may hurt us in the long run (in the form of a reduced UEFA club coefficient) but will undoubtedly be a boon in the short run, as it will allow for more rest and more time to train the team and prepare league matches. From a roster construction standpoint, however, it really increases the onus on Edu to move a high number of players out the door this summer, as we simply won’t need a first team squad of more than 22-23.
This is what I would like to see (ages as of 8/14 when the season starts).
Striker: Aubameyang (32), Balogun (20), Martinelli at times.
I don't see a reason to buy another striker given that we're not in Europe. Auba will start most matches and has an excellent career injury record. We need to find more ways to get Martinelli on the pitch and there are plenty of reasons to believe that Arteta may see him as a striker eventually, so I’d like to see Martinelli get some real minutes off the bench and starting matches where Auba isn’t fit or the tactics favor a striker who gets more involved in the buildup. Balogun can get his feet wet by playing in the two domestic cups and garbage time league minutes here and there.
Three Behind the Striker: Saka (19), Smith-Rowe (21), Pepe (26), Martinelli (20), new creative midfielder.
Its crystal clear that we need another creative player in the center that can be the link between midfield and attack. Odegaard in his best matches (IMO, West Ham and Brighton) has really elevated the overall fluidity of our play. Whether we bring him back or go for an option like Emi Buendia or (in a dream scenario) Jack Grealish, we need somebody in this role and it seems like Arteta and Edu are fully planning for this. Add that player and I think we have a nice mix of goal scoring wide forwards (Pepe, Martinelli), creators to link play (ESR, mystery addition), and a hybrid player with the potential to be really good at both (Saka).
Central midfield: Partey (28), new central midfielder, Xhaka (28), Elneny (29), Azeez (18).
Xhaka was actually one of our better players this season IMO and probably gets too much stick from the fanbase. But starting central midfield is both an area where we can upgrade and where we really need something a little different. None of Partey, Xhaka, or Elneny (or Ceballos for that matter) really offer anything in the final third and we essentially got no goal contribution from midfield this season. IMO, we need a more all action player who can legitimately do the work of a central midfielder in terms of running and passing but also pop up with 4-5 goals and 4-5 assists. I am as high on Miguel Azeez as you can possibly be on a youth player and think he could play this kind of role for us eventually but that is a few years away even if he develops well. I am ambivalent on keeping Elneny but lean toward doing so simply because he has almost no sale value, his wages are small, he’s a good squad player who won’t raise a stink if he never plays, and he provides a reliable fourth option while Azeez is basically a wild card at this stage in his career.
Fullbacks: Tierney (24), new right back, new backup left back, Chambers (26).
The big issue with our fullbacks is that Tierney is central to our attacking setup but also tragically injury prone. Arteta likes to set up in this way where in possession Tierney is essentially our left winger and then the “left wing” player is like a left-sided 10. Fine and good but we have absolutely nobody else who can do what Tierney does. So we either need a backup LB who can do a better Tierney impression or a RB who can do Tierney-like things on that side if necessary, so that the whole thing just flips. We have neither right now. I think the best solution in terms of options is a cheap backup LB who is actually left footed (Ryan Bertrand on a free has been rumored) and then a RB to rotate with Chambers who has a bit more of a technical quasi-winger skillset.
Centerbacks: Gabriel (23), Saliba (20), Mari (27), Holding (25).
We look set at LCB for a while, with Gabriel being groomed as the starter and Mari capable enough as a backup. But RCB might be the weakest link in the entire squad right now. Rob Holding is a great backup option – decent all-around game, excellent teammate by every account, knows the system – but he just isn’t good enough to be the starter for a team with real ambitions of getting back into the top four. One of the biggest questions of the off-season is whether William Saliba is capable of being the player that pushes past Holding to take the starting job. Rightly or wrongly, I think Arteta is not sold on Saliba but is willing to give him a hard look this summer. I’m going to optimistically hope that Saliba impresses enough to be given a real chance this year but I also think its fairly likely that we end up buying another more polished RCB instead who can step in and play immediately. Where that would leave Saliba I don’t know. His handling is probably the number one criticism I have of Arteta and Edu from a squad management standpoint.
Keepers: Leno, new backup (likely Ryan).
This looks to me like the easiest position to handle. Leno had some wobbles this year but he still is excellent as a shot stopper and adept enough with his feet for us to play out from the back. Ryan has been reliable when called upon, seems like he really wants to return on a permanent basis, and I can’t imagine that we’d have to pay Brighton more than a couple million pounds to make it happen. This seems like a no-brainer solution for backup GK.
Outgoings:
One of the best things Arsenal has going for them right now is a lot of players to sell that should have real value even in a Covid-impacted market. Mainly, this is the result of having gone through such a tumultuous last couple years in which a lot of youth players got real looks and proved that they’re Premier League quality but don’t seem like good fits (Willock, Maitland-Niles, Nketiah) while other players bought by Emery ended up surplus to requirements but still are young, on fairly cheap wages, and have established track records in first team football (Guendouzi, Torreira). Throw in a couple more veteran players that will be harder to move but should still have some suitors (Lacazette because he scores goals, Bellerin is still only 26 and not on massive wages). And then there are a couple we’d be happy/lucky to give away for free and might even help partially subsidize a move away (Cedric, Willian).
Realistically, we’re not going to get rid of all nine of these players in one summer but I think moving on from 6-7 of them could happen if Edu takes care of business (which I do have some doubts about his ability to do). Maybe one or two ends up back in the squad (Willian and/or Cedric most likely) and one or two end up out on loan. There is also Reiss Nelson, who we really should be loaning to a PL or Championship team to see if he could grow and become a real option for the behind-the-striker group after this year when we are (hopefully) back in Europe and need to grow the squad a bit again. If we can actually move on 6-7 of these players, I think it will be very possible to fund the five incomings (two of which, backup LB and backup GK, are dirt cheap) discussed above.
Edit: Forgot about Kolasinac (likely in the "give away for free" category) and Mavropanos (the rumor is that Stuttgart want to loan him again while we'd prefer a sale for a nominal fee in the 6-8m range).
Overall prognosis:
I’m actually surprisingly bullish about the team going into next year. How much we improve will depend on the quality of our summer business, getting some continued growth from our young core, and Arteta actually learning and improving as a manager. But I think we’re finally seeing the emergence of a squad that has positional balance, some exciting young talent, and was built with a real plan in mind rather than a mishmash of players haphazardly thrown together by three different managers, power hungry rival executives, and shady agents. I’m not sure it’ll be enough to break into the top four given that City, United, Chelsea, and Liverpool all look pretty strong. But I’m very confident that we won’t be finishing 8th again. Arteta may or may not be the answer beyond next year, but no matter what he'll leave the squad in far better shape than the one he inherited.
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