Why do you believe there's little hope of Champions League? I believe this team is definitely one of the five most talented teams in England.
I really like a lot of players on this team and I love the youth, but I am not sure that they are definitely one of the five most talented teams. Here are a few reasons why I do not like their chances of Champions League football.
1. Competition in Premier League
There are a lot of good squads in the top half of the table. Liverpool and Manchester City are in a tier completely separate from Arsenal (even a banged up Man City). They have incredible managers, better talent, depth, and money. That leaves 2 spots for Champions League for other teams in England.
Chelsea is a team back on the ascendancy. I'd take their talent over Arsenal's right now and a lot of their talent is young. They have unlimited money to spend, so post-transfer ban, they'll make big splashes to sure up any weaknesses or players aging out. They also have an army of loanees that they can recall when needed. Lampard still needs to prove he's not just on an "Ole Gunnar Solskaer new manager hot streak," but it is hard to quibble with anything he's done. Year over year, I expect Chelsea to be better than Arsenal. That leaves one spot for Champions League.
Leicester City may be on a hot streak and come back to life next year, but right now, they are playing at a different level from Arsenal. Rodgers has the team playing like a well-oiled machine and they are just relentless on the attack. It is as if they get stronger by every goal they score and they do not let up. This year, they are a better team than Arsenal, but I could see them falling back a bit next year if they sell players or possibly lose Rodgers to a bigger club.
Manchester United are probably at about as low of a point as they'll reach, and they are about level with Arsenal. I'd take Arsenal's current team over Manchester United's, but they have unlimited money to throw around and eventually they'll modernize and find something that works. This year, I'd say it's a toss-up between Arsenal and Man United, but over the next 5 years, I'd take United.
Tottenham are about comparable with Arsenal on talent, and they too are going through a rough streak, but they are only a few months removed from playing in a Champions League final. I don't know what's going on right now, but I suspect they'll work things out and improve from their current form. It's another toss-up to me whether or not Arsenal will finish ahead of them.
Basically, Arsenal needs a combination of things to go right with their own team and very wrong at some better teams to have a chance at Champions League. Mathematically, it is just not in their favor.
2. Underlying numbers are not good
I think expected goals can sometimes be a bit misleading, but it does add one other thing to consider when watching, and honestly it seems to match the eye test with last year's team.
Last year's team had a lucky stretch in the fall that made them finish in a higher slot than they deserved. (Numbers via
Understat)
2018/19 actual goals scored: 73, xG: 64
2018/19 actual goals allowed: 51, xGA: 57
2018/19 actual points: 70, expected points: 58
The poor run of results in the spring may have just been some regression to the mean for them, yet they still finished 12 points over where xG would have predicted, probably thanks to some clinical finishing by Aubameyang.
Based on xG, they had the 7th best team last year (behind City, Liverpool, Chelsea, United, Tottenham, and Wolves; Leicester was just behind them at 56 xPts).
Based on xG so far this season, they have the 12th best team. Their goals scored/allowed is in line with the xG, but other teams have deserved to take more points than they have based on better underlying numbers.
Actual goals scored: 16, xG: 16
Actual goals allowed: 17, xGA: 18
Actual points: 17, xPts: 15
They are constantly being outshot (11 out of 18 matches in all comps this year), even by teams that have no business outshooting them like Watford.
3. Fear of departures
Aubameyang and Lacazette deserve to play in the Champions League. When Arsenal finish outside the top four again this year, I think they are gone. I like the young talent that can step-in, but that will certainly be a step back, at least for a little while.
4. Sustained poor performance
Over their last 19 Premier League games, they've taken 24 points out 57. That is not pretty, and that is a half-season worth of football.
@Orbinho on Twitter tweets all sorts of numbers that will keep Arsenal fans up at night, but I think I'll stop here because I do not mean to be so negative on the squad. I think the splashy acquisition of Pepe (and Tierney) may have got some Arsenal fans' (very much including me) hopes up too high for the year, but realistically, I do not see them getting into Champions League.
